Vote: Bull market or Bear market? Which one and why.

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Dr Durden
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Vote: Bull market or Bear market? Which one and why.

With the recent stock market "crash," did we just enter a bear market or was this just a correction in a bull market?

Please state the reasoning behind your choice and where you think we go from here.

This should be interesting. devil

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:04

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rjsand
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Dr Durden wrote: With the

Dr Durden wrote:

With the recent stock market "crash," did we just enter a bear market or was this just a correction in a bull market?

Please state the reasoning behind your choice and where you think we go from here.

This should be interesting. devil

If it weren't for the fed dumping M2 and M3 fiat into the markets, we would be in a rigged bear market.  Assuming QE-3 gets rolling along. we will be in a rigged (highly volatile) bull market with extreme ups and downs like we have been seeing recently.

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Prize Fighter
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Bull-shit market. 

Bull-shit market. 

Nigel Black
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Manipulated bull shit market.

Manipulated bull shit market.

FalseParadigm
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We've technically been in a

We've technically been in a bear market since 2008.  The only reason why there's been a bull market is because of Fed intervention.

Extreme volatility is always indicative of a weak and unstable market (i.e. a Bear market).  The S&P will drop to around 1000 leading up to QE3.  At this point what is going to move the markets up?  Consumer confidence printed at its lowest since 1980.  Almost all economic indicators show that we're in the midst of a massive economic slowdown.  The USPS is about to lay off around 120,000 workers.  Europe is imploding.  If France gets downgraded to AA+ that'll completely destroy the EFSF. 

Record revenues for Corporate America are being driven by a declining dollar.  People are beginning to realize this.

Dr Durden
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Some light reading for

Some light reading for entertainment on the subject.

Bear:

Steve Keen: http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2011/08/09/the-return-of-the-bear/

Karl Denninger: http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=191850

Mish Shedlock: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/08/us-treasury-bull-market-not-over-record.html

Adam Brochert: http://goldversuspaper.blogspot.com/2011/08/paperbugs-wont-get-it-until-its-too.html

Bull

Adam Hamilton: http://www.zealllc.com/2011/spxbuy.htm

Not many bulls out there outside the goofballs on CNBS. Post up any good articles if you find them.

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Dr Durden
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Good TA on the SPX going

Good TA on the SPX going forward. This week should decide it's fate. I have my $ on red, but who knows....

Quote:
Summary

Until proven otherwise, the SPX has probably begun a bear market decline. There are two possibilities that stand out:

1 -- Even if it makes a slightly lower low in the near future, it may remain above the general level of its 1102 low and mount a sizeable bear market rally before going lower.

2 -- Because of the behavior of certain indicators and the size of the base pattern established above the 1102 low, there is still a remote possibility that it has only completed a severe intermediate correction and will not start a true bear market until sometime in the early part of 2012.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/22160/market-turning-points

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Dr Durden
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Oppsies. Not sure if it can

Oppsies.

Not sure if it can bounce from here. Could still as the VIX is only at 30. Guess we'll know if 1100 will hold this time or not.

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Something those in bear camp

Something those in bear camp might want to think about in the interim. 

http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/ST_Seas_3rpres.png

So, 1260 is 5% up from here (1200) which means 800 is a 35% drop from there. 

If Benflation QE3's us anytime soon, then the POSX takes out it's all time low and the SPX runs for a new all time high to match? Interesting how 35% up from here would put us at 1620. 

Yowza.

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