What are your top 3 gold producers TODAY (Aug 11th 2011) and why?

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johnnydrama
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What are your top 3 gold producers TODAY (Aug 11th 2011) and why?

Hi All, 

I am a silver miner investor myself and having seen the recent run up in gold miners without much run up in silver miners, I realized that I want to diversify into Gold miners as well. The problem is that gold miners have experienced a surge across the board and I don't know much of Gold Miners. So, I have come here for your help.

I've read most of Eric O's picks. The problem is that it was written so long ago; I have no idea which are solid picks right now; And Eric O goes through 30+ companies andI have no idea which ones out of the 30 to start looking at today. (I started looking through all of them one by one, but because of the huge surge in gold miners recently, they all seemed "fairly priced". So I'm basically looking for companies that are discounts right now)

I'm looking for your top 3 gold producers, why they are your top 3 picks. Please put their expected gold production in the next little while and their current production so that I have an idea of their growth prospects. Also, please list their cash costs /oz so I can estimate their cashflows or have an idea of the value of the asset. (Alternatively you can do that all for me :) )

Really Appreciated!

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:20
BagOfGold
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johnnydrama...

johnnydrama wrote:

Hi All, 

I am a silver miner investor myself and having seen the recent run up in gold miners without much run up in silver miners, I realized that I want to diversify into Gold miners as well. The problem is that gold miners have experienced a surge across the board and I don't know much of Gold Miners. So, I have come here for your help.

I've read most of Eric O's picks. The problem is that it was written so long ago; I have no idea which are solid picks right now; And Eric O goes through 30+ companies andI have no idea which ones out of the 30 to start looking at today. (I started looking through all of them one by one, but because of the huge surge in gold miners recently, they all seemed "fairly priced". So I'm basically looking for companies that are discounts right now)

I'm looking for your top 3 gold producers, why they are your top 3 picks. Please put their expected gold production in the next little while and their current production so that I have an idea of their growth prospects. Also, please list their cash costs /oz so I can estimate their cashflows or have an idea of the value of the asset. (Alternatively you can do that all for me :) )

Really Appreciated!

Do you want us to "pull the trigger" too?..."The rabbit hole" is a huge one...but it is hard to find...because it's hidden in "plain sight"!...If you would simply "follow the yellow brick road"...

Are you ready now?...

Please let me know when you arrive...so I may assist you in finding "The Rabbit Hole"!!!...

Bag Of Gold

johnnydrama
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I'm surprised how few people

I'm surprised how few people will share their top picks. I'm not asking for anything more than some stocks to begin looking at. 

Yes I can do my DD on every gold stock in Eric Os thread, but the whole point of this forum is to share information. Further if I gave a newbie 30 stocks to look at and said they were all really good, it would be very hard for him to discern which to invest in. (That's what I get reading Eric Os thread).

I was just hoping to leverage people's ideas because if it's your top pick, you probably have the reason your interested in it memorized. Therefore it wouldn't be too much work for you to reply.

At this stage, after all gold miners have jumped 30-40% from their lows, I would believe there aren't as many depressed miners. Therefore, if you know of some please share. 

BagOfGold
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johnnydrama...

johnnydrama wrote:

I'm surprised how few people will share their top picks. I'm not asking for anything more than some stocks to begin looking at. 

Yes I can do my DD on every gold stock in Eric Os thread, but the whole point of this forum is to share information. Further if I gave a newbie 30 stocks to look at and said they were all really good, it would be very hard for him to discern which to invest in. (That's what I get reading Eric Os thread).

I was just hoping to leverage people's ideas because if it's your top pick, you probably have the reason your interested in it memorized. Therefore it wouldn't be too much work for you to reply.

At this stage, after all gold miners have jumped 30-40% from their lows, I would believe there aren't as many depressed miners. Therefore, if you know of some please share. 

As I have said before..."the rabbit hole" is hidden in "plain sight"!...Follow the yellow brick road..."below"!...When you "click" something...besides your heels..."there is no place like home"...my home!...Let me know when you arrive...so I can welcome you!!!...

Bag Of Gold

johnnydrama
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Hey Bag Of Gold, Thanks for

Hey Bag Of Gold,

Thanks for the reply at least. Appreciate it. I was looking more into producers because resource plays open a whole new can of worms for me...In any case, I'll take a look into the penny ones and see if I can discern some good ones.

Eric Original
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Hi Johnny

It's true, I'm often a little vague as to specific buy sell recommendations.  Frankly, I don't want the responsibility.  I don't want to be in the business of telling people "Buy ABC today, Sell DEF tomorrow". If people lose money, they'll be mad at me.  I prefer to simply drop some names for others to apply their own DD and timing skills to.  But I can understand your frustration with that.  You are looking for more than just 30+ stocks for your watch list.  I get that.

Keep an eye on my thread over the weekend.  It is getting to be a long thread.  If time allows I'll try to recap some things.  I'm thinking of a post along lines of  "OK, if I had no miners now, and new money to invest, and I wanted 5 or 6 producers, what would I buy?"  Maybe that will help. 

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BagOfGold
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johnnydrama...

johnnydrama wrote:

Hey Bag Of Gold,

Thanks for the reply at least. Appreciate it. I was looking more into producers because resource plays open a whole new can of worms for me...In any case, I'll take a look into the penny ones and see if I can discern some good ones.

You will find many "pennies"...which will soon morph into "gold & silver"!...I do believe there may be others...who will arrive shortly...to help you!!!...

I hope you find what you are looking for!!!...

Bag Of Gold

Eric Original
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Here's the problem

I've seen a lot of newsletter writers and blog writers get in hot water with readers over the years.  The buy is critical, don't chase!  The sell is critical, if the market is begging for your shares, let them have them, at a price! 

Timeframes are critical.  I might say "I Love ABC" when I'm thinking this has to be up big a year from now.  Readers might buy it, and a month later when it's done nothing they are thinking "Eric, your picks suck!".  

I have no desire and no intention to go down this road.  Can not. Will not.

Actually, after all this angst, I think Bag Of Gold nailed it right off:  "Do you want us to "pull the trigger" too?..."The rabbit hole" is a huge one."

"Pull the Trigger" is putting my hand on your mouse and doing your buying and selling for you.

"The Rabbit Hole"  is your own DD, and your own responsibility.

At least that's how I see it.  BOG, am I wrong?

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BagOfGold
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Eric O...

Eric Original wrote:

I've seen a lot of newsletter writers and blog writers get in hot water with readers over the years.  The buy is critical, don't chase!  The sell is critical, if the market is begging for your shares, let them have them, at a price! 

Timeframes are critical.  I might say "I Love ABC" when I'm thinking this has to be up big a year from now.  Readers might buy it, and a month later when it's done nothing they are thinking "Eric, your picks suck!".  

I have no desire and no intention to go down this road.  Can not. Will not.

Actually, after all this angst, I think Bag Of Gold nailed it right off:  "Do you want us to "pull the trigger" too?..."The rabbit hole" is a huge one."

"Pull the Trigger" is putting my hand on your mouse and doing your buying and selling for you.

"The Rabbit Hole"  is your own DD, and your own responsibility.

At least that's how I see it.  BOG, am I wrong?

You are 100% correct!...Are you sure you're not a mind reader?!?...

Bag Of Gold

johnnydrama
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What is this Pull the Trigger

What is this Pull the Trigger and Rabbit Hole talk?

The two of you have the largest threads here. You are considered the Experts here.

How hard is it to name your best picks right now and why? 

Obviously I will do my own due diligence. This will naturally determine a time horizon.

For example, my gold picks before this rally were Primero, GG and Jaguar. 

Primero because it was being punished for having 1 mine and a silver tax issue. It was trading at cash flow levels half of the industry average. Because of its extremely low valuation I bought it. It was subsequently bought by NGX, which also has a low valuation, but the mine is depleting and its valuation now entirely rests on how its new mine is coming along. 

Jaguar has had operational issues and is at the low end of their production guidance for 2011. It has also been severely punished and trades at cashflow levels at half the industry average. 

GG I bought because it is the lowest cost large cap and because I got it at a good price (43) when markets were crashing (Feb 2011). 

Most recently I took a smaller position in LSG  because of its operational issues has hit its stock hard. However, their change in direction is not a huge problem to me because it inherently assumes more production in the future.

As you can see, this is a starting point to look at some producers and a decent reason why. 

AUQ and BTO are good producers with solid mgmt, but if you purchase them now, you are getting them at premiums to industry multiples levels (10-13x vs ~8x). New Gold is great but its also at a premium as is FNV. I cant justify these premiums so I stay away.

But this is a starting point for some people to look at this point in the game. So pls, if you do have any suggestions please feel free to name them here and why and I will do my own DD.

BagOfGold
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johnnydrama...

johnnydrama wrote:

What is this Pull the Trigger and Rabbit Hole talk?

The two of you have the largest threads here. You are considered the Experts here.

How hard is it to name your best picks right now and why? 

Obviously I will do my own due diligence. This will naturally determine a time horizon.

But this is a starting point for some people to look at this point in the game. So pls, if you do have any suggestions please feel free to name them here and why and I will do my own DD.

I like each & every one of my pennies on "the list"!...Only you can determine...which jurisdications...management...time horizons etc...are suitable for you!...Go through each & every one on "the list"...& buy whichever ones you like!...In my opinion...they are all winners!!!...

I wish you much success!!!...

Bag Of Gold

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Read between the lines...

Sorry! Can't help myself. Too hard to watch...

Calm down, take your time and be observant. You'll lose your shirt investing if all you can see are the signals that smack you in the face!

The first post of each respective thread is routinely updated for your/our convenience. That way we don't have to spin through pages and pages of stale information.

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Teach a man to

Teach a man to fish.......

Johnny, the idea is to help the community learn. We will all benefit from that. There is a lot of info to be gleaned from many threads. Part of that is to learn how to do the DD or what to look for as good metrics for companies.

BoG has set out some for the "pennies from heaven" stocks.

There are others for producers. Many of the metrics will be same with the explorers.

It will come back as we all bring picks to the table.

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TRX

I bought TRX recently, $5.90, simply because it is Santa's company and he has said that he will pay dividends in gold instead of fiat. Good enough for me. I am not a trader, buyer and holder.

Eric Original
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Augmented Fourth

No, actually as things currently stand the first post of a thread can't be updated by the author.  Admin is perhaps working on something for that.  

ScottJ, with his magical moderator powers, was able to update BOG's first thread post for the changes in "the list" that came shortly after it started.  My thread's first post is still unchanged from when it started.

Considering that many threads here in Turd Town has a distinctly political or otherwise opinionated air, Admin (and the Turd) thought it best to make it so that a first post can't be changed.  So as to avoid the argument being changed and therefore perhaps change the meaning or intention of everyone who had posted afterwards, or to put words in their mouths, so to speak.

I see the reasoning for that, but yes it also makes it unwieldy for any sort of portfolio or watchlist or whatever that could use a periodic update.

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Johnny, I get the impression

Johnny, I get the impression you just want a quick advice, but I don’t think that’s how it works at Turd’s place. I’ve been reading this blog daily since January, digested the info, but my only posts so far have been a couple of private paypal messages to TF whenever some profits allowed me to give him a donation. Nevertheless, I’ve learned a lot, reading Eric’s and Gingers long conversations back in spring, posts by people like Scott and ewc58. BoG’s kitco thread I discovered in March or so. BoG, Mr.Gneiss and probably others taught me how to look at the penny stocks. And then there are many other blogs and places to read that have been mentioned here the past 8 months.

Would I want Eric to give his insights in the form of a recommended  ‘buy’ or ‘sell’ advice? No, there is no fun in that. I like it that many miners are discussed, that some are “discovered” but the vote is still out whether it’s a good pick. And if you take your time and follow the threads and do some further reading and studying  you can always make up your own mind and decide for yourself if you want to ‘pull the trigger’ or not.

Heck, it’s been only since December that opened a trading account, put 10k€ in it and bought my very first share. I had been stacking PM for a while then and still do, but investing turned out to be something completely different. But it seems I’m doing alright, although I mainly work with smaller amounts, getting experience and building confidence. I learned not chasing stocks upward the hard way, just to have patience, that a nice mining stock can be bought cheaper if you just wait for the pullback etc. etc. And I’m getting more experienced in reading financial results or drilling reports, reading up on a region’s background or its political setting.  Anyway, I wouldn’t have learned all that if I just asked someone for his top 3 stock picks or subscribed to some expensive newsletter.

Anyway, in my account are some recommendations from Eric, BoG, and some I just found on my own. And for me as a beginner, it turned out to be incredibly satisfying that something works out after you’ve done your own DD and deliberation.

Just something I wanted to share after reading this thread.

Eric, BoG, thank you for discussing the miners like you have been doing the past months.

Take care everyone.

p.s.

When it comes to gold picks: My largest core holdings in gold mines by far are still Gammon Gold/AuRico and Pretivm I bought back in early February. But the past week, IMHO, as I wanted some diversification for the long-term, getting some nice little bargains at the all-out European fire sale has been and might very well still be far more attractive.

Eric Original
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Just couldn't narrow it down to only three

See my post #387 on my miner thread for more details.

Northgate, AuRico, Kirkland Lake, Richmont, Wesdome, Golden Band.

Good Luck All!!

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