Silver Inverse Head and Shoudlers Skewed to Upside???

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ScottJ
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Silver Inverse Head and Shoudlers Skewed to Upside???

If this plays out, goodbye 30's for silver... forever.

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:08
Sycee
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That chart looks kind of like

That chart looks kind of like an inverse H&S, then again the market is so disorderly right now I wouldn't surprised if we got another dollar drop just to flush the rest of this crap out.

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I think that most people are

I think that most people are in denial as to just how heavily bearish silver looks these past few days.  It started with the failure to hold $40 on Sunday and has continued from there.  If it weren't for gold's massive move to the upside, we would be at $35-$36 right now.  Right now, gold is up another $30 or so, the USD is down and silver is down 80c.  Think abut that for a second.  The moment that gold begins to correct in a deeper way (today?), silver is going to tank.    I am one of the most bullish people out there with regard to silver long term, but right now it looks like garbage short term.  Even Turd's ST calls on silver are biased because he seems to want to see differently - he should have known that we would come down out of the triangle based on silver's signals.  Hope has no place in these markets.  All gains in silver have evaporated in the past few trading sessions, and now as the markets show a clear bottom we will go down for a bit in my opinion. 

cris
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Another way to look at silver

One can also look at the glass as half full.  EVERY asset class has been absolutely decimated in the past week, EXCPET gold.

AND silver.

Clearly this is due to blatant manipulation, and really nothing else.

I think that silver is holding up well actually.

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cris wrote: One can also look

cris wrote:

One can also look at the glass as half full.  EVERY asset class has been absolutely decimated in the past week, EXCPET gold.

AND silver.

Clearly this is due to blatant manipulation, and really nothing else.

I think that silver is holding up well actually.

Yes it is.  It has been keeping its head above water amidst much pressure to the downside.  What will happen now is that that pressure will let up a bit, gold will correct and silver will tank down to the $35-$36 area.  Watch. 

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@ScottJ

Hey man, rising up in the world -- now you are a big moderator!

I have enjoyed reading your posts since the early days on the blog.

Take a gander at this chart of the gold:silver ratio -- I saw it in another thread and I think it is very interesting in the potential head and shoulders formation here as well:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$GOLD:$SILVER

cris
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@ silver is money

You may very well be correct.

But at that level I will simply buy more.

I suspect I will not be alone.

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Silver is money wrote: If it

Silver is money wrote:

If it weren't for gold's massive move to the upside, we would be at $35-$36 right now.

Silver is a screaming buy $35/36. 150 DMA is 36, 200 DMA is 34. Don't expect to see 34 for long unless we're headed for 2008 deflation again. Unlikely. But anything can happen, so don't bet next year's paychecks on it and go into cc debt w/interest attached. Buy with prudence..always. But you want to buy that dip for QE3 re-inflation of all bubbles -which includes silver. Next run will  test 50 and should blow through to at least 67. This can easily be where we're at in November.

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Sycee
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I'd lose more sleep holding

I'd lose more sleep holding gold right now than silver. Gold looks like it's gonna have a 100 dollar down day soon.

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Agree

Cris,  I have to agree and I can't help but think of all the cash on the sidelines from those who "sell in may and go away". 

I currently have no positions in Silver as I sold and went away for awhile -vacation etc so I was sitting in cash for the last 2 months.  Actually this is my first post on Turd's new site after being a long time contributor on the old one -yay!

Point being there are probably many people in my position that "woke up" over the events of the last few days and are now looking closely for decent entry points.  I'm seing $37.85 as I type this and I can see myself getting back into the market in short order especially depending on what we learn from Ben today..

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I have to laugh every time I

I have to laugh every time I hear "good by $____ forever." Blythe has absolutely hypnotized you. If you can't beat'em, join'em because you're delusional.

Silver seems to be out of favor and good time to buy. But if you think it cannot be right back were it was as fast as it left, go buy AAPL instead. 

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Silver is money wrote: Yes

Silver is money wrote:

Yes it is.  It has been keeping its head above water amidst much pressure to the downside.  What will happen now is that that pressure will let up a bit, gold will correct and silver will tank down to the $35-$36 area.  Watch. 

Check. 

Dr G
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Sycee wrote: I'd lose more

Sycee wrote:

I'd lose more sleep holding gold right now than silver. Gold looks like it's gonna have a 100 dollar down day soon.

As well as a $100 up day. That's likely how it will be from here on out. 

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Silver is money wrote: I

Silver is money wrote:

I think that most people are in denial as to just how heavily bearish silver looks these past few days.  It started with the failure to hold $40 on Sunday and has continued from there.  If it weren't for gold's massive move to the upside, we would be at $35-$36 right now.  Right now, gold is up another $30 or so, the USD is down and silver is down 80c.  Think abut that for a second.  The moment that gold begins to correct in a deeper way (today?), silver is going to tank.    I am one of the most bullish people out there with regard to silver long term, but right now it looks like garbage short term.  Even Turd's ST calls on silver are biased because he seems to want to see differently - he should have known that we would come down out of the triangle based on silver's signals.  Hope has no place in these markets.  All gains in silver have evaporated in the past few trading sessions, and now as the markets show a clear bottom we will go down for a bit in my opinion. 

Sorry Silver is money, but no big sell-offs in silver have happened when OI is less than 130,000, and right now OI is less than 115,000.  That number combined with margin increases means silver is in very strong hands.  Plus, hello, you have been watching my favorite chart?  Silver's strongest month is almost upon us.  Scott is right, silver in the $30's will be gone for good soon, the next big rally will take us to $75 or more, then the old long time resistance, $50, will be the next support.

http://www.seasonalcharts.com/classics_silber.html

http://www.spectrumcommodities.com/education/commodity/charts/si.html

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We got close enough to my

We got close enough to my target, in fact we kind of hit it.  Silver dropped to the $36.75 area I believe.  That looks to be the extent of the downside and now, maybe, finally, we can see silver do some climbing for a change.  The disconnect in today's trading from gold was a very good start. 

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There are so many h&s

There are so many h&s formations all over the place that right now I give them much less weight.

We did reach the first fib level retracement from the May Massacree and corrected a bullish first fib down from the recent high. Maybe more work consolidating a flag but higher is the resolution imho.

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COMEX spot is decoupled from actual street price

I'd like to chime in on the talk about the spot gold and silver price.

The discussion is moving between bulls and bears and the tone reminds me of democrats and republicans talking.

Neither really understand what the other says.

Meanwhile, if you're politically agnostic, the political rhetoric is boring.

If you're a long-term investor, then a $100 swing in gold is significant, but not nauseating.  In fact, in the context of silver, it is obvious that the premium for physical silver is escalating.

For the bears reading, I have a challenge for you.  If you so believe that the silver price will need to correct by say 5-10%, then do you seriously believe that the premium will remain stable?

Or, do you believe that the silver wholesalers will continue to charge a 10% premium on the silver?

Please note the following URL:  http://goldprice.org/ebay-silver-prices/

Notice that the gold premium at wholesale is about 3 to 5%. 

Silver premium is around 15% on Ebay.  Remember that EBay is the ONLY route for people in isolated areas who can not easily get to bigger metropolitan areas and can not easily transact otherwise.

Do you guys really understand what is happening here?  The COMEX silver price is now DECOUPLED from the price on the street.
We talked about this happening back six months ago on the old board.  Now, we are in August 2011 and we're seeing the divergence (spread) between the COMEX and physical solidifying.

Wholesale US ASE's are marked up about $3.30.  The retail ASE's are marked up $4.00 and EBAY up to $5 in some retail places.

This just goes to show the degree of physical shortages in the street.

It is beyond laughable that the COMEX price can be capped at $39 1 when in fact major wholesalers are buying at spot + $1 and selling at spot + $3 and when EBAY is selling at at average of $45+.

The Comex price can not play a role as the global standard if the spot COMEX price does not reflect the physical market place.  The entire point of the futures market is to dampen temporary fluctuation in price.  In this case, the COMEX price is arguing that they know the norm.  However, in the case of precious metals, the asian and european markets clearly know more because they are clearing more physical gold and silver than the Comex is clearing from its warehouse.

Therefore, I argue that people using the Comex price chart to form a technical analysis opinion are being swayed by the very paper chase that they criticize SLV and GLD for engaging.  Therefore, my view is that the price of silver and gold are best determined by the wholesalers like Monex, CNI, GoldMoney, etc.

These dealers are seeing the physical demand to a greater degree than the COMEX.

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