Silver pull back?

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Eric_2
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Silver pull back?

Does any of the knowledgable folks on the site have any thoughts or consensus on a possible pull back in the price of silver in the next couple weeks?

I saw this post on KWN that seems to imply this may be a possibility.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/8/2_Ben_Davies_-_Look_For_Another_Short_Squeeze_in_Silver.html

I hope to purchase about 100 ounces of physical soon and I'm trying to determine if I should wait or just pull the trigger.

Thanks

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:09
CharlesT4
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The easiest solution is to

The easiest solution is to buy half now and save the other half for later. If the price goes up, you have made a profit. If the price goes down, you can dollar cost average and lower your overall price. Back in the fall of 09 when I entered the market, I'd buy 25 ozs a week when the price was low, and sit and watch when it rallied. It made the price declines much more bearable to be able to buy on weakness. The February 10 crash caught me by surprise, but so did the May 11 crash. For amateurs like myself,  I just like to know that the bull market will bail me out on any foolish entry points.

survivalwstyle
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me thinks

it aLL depends on how much PS you already hold. are you haPPy with that if AG goes on a run aLL the way to 50 here? if that answer is yes then wait to BTFD. that is what i am doing.

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Dr Durden
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survivalwstyle wrote: it aLL

survivalwstyle wrote:

it aLL depends on how much PS you already hold. are you haPPy with that if AG goes on a run aLL the way to 50 here? if that answer is yes then wait to BTFD. that is what i am doing.

I agree. It's just a matter of risk exposure. Obviously if you have a fat stack you can afford the gamble but if you're dry then you risk a bit more long term.

My sentiment has always been; buy what you can when you can and dollar cost average in. Which means BTFD. Make sure to read Hi-Ho Silver's daily analysis as he does a great job of the day-t0-day flow analysis. 

Also, I cannot count the number of "analysts" that were SURE silver would pull back to 25-28 during the "doldrums" and then take off during the seasonal upleg. Oooops? Could still happen, but highly unlikely in my mind. Maybe save some cheddar in case it does?

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snoochieboochies
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I bought when it was just

I bought when it was just over $40 shortly before the May Day massacare. I felt a right tool given that i sold all my gold to buy into Silver at the time. It's getting back to the price i bought it for so i'm almost green. It's a long-term investment for me and no way will i be selling until either a) I've got enough money to buy a house or b) everyone i know starts talking about buying silver/gold. By that time, we'll know PM's are in a bubble and it's time to sell off before the massess get caught with their pants down.

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bern
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I expect the Fed to talk

I expect the Fed to talk about if not outright start QE3 over the next few weeks.  This is very bullish for metals.  IMO, there isn't going to be a very big correction at all in the near future.  Market forces are pushing metals higher.

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No1Hunter
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"Does any of the knowledgable

"Does any of the knowledgable folks on the site have any thoughts or consensus on a possible pull back in the price of silver in the next couple weeks?"

There isn't anyone who really knows what the future holds.  There are trends and history but to use this to "know" what the future has in store for PM's is still just a guess.  My guess is if we do see a correction, it will be small and we stand a good chance PM's will keep crawling their was up and up with a big squire up and/or down every now and then.  I also believe we will see $50oz silver this year but I can't back that up with reliable facts (my crystal ball is foggy and my tea leaves sank).

I was in the "wait & see" boat a while back but had a feeling and spent $20k on some gold but mostly on silver.  At this point in time, I am glad I did.

FYI - the oversea's market shows silver down about 15 cents.  Are we pulling back?  I don't know but it did the same thing the last couple nights about this time, if I remember right.

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I also agree with bern.  But,

I also agree with bern (one hat tip for him).  But, I am bullish on PM's (aren't we all!!!)

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How about you keep your

How about you keep your expectations far below the bull consensus? Groupthink is everywhere, don't get caught up in the dogma that X has to happen because of Y. Markets are irrational. 

There was a thread recently about guessing the price of silver by the year 2020. I got my chart out and simply extended the lower trendline since the beginning of 2010 factoring in the major corrections and crazy volatitliy along the way. I came up with a conservative estimate of $85. You read that right $85, not $850. This is roughly 8.5% growth per year from now on (doubling time from 42.5 to 85 about 8.25 years). 

We're up against sociopaths that run the global casino with endless pockets who can toss a measly commodity around without blinking an eye. Never forget this.

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Silver starts at around 8:45.

Silver starts at around 8:45. "We could have a fast track to $45".

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Eric_2 wrote:Does any of the

Eric_2 wrote:
Does any of the knowledgable folks on the site have any thoughts or consensus on a possible pull back in the price of silver in the next couple weeks?

No serious knowledge here but I can tell you that for quite some time now {not my first rodeo} there have always been those calling for pulbacks  and even crashes.

The advice offered, mainly is free and I'm sure well-meant {slight sarcasm} but for many interested in acquiring physical metal I see from afar that too much information causes a form of paralysis where the individual is frozen and can't pull the trigger for fear of missing out on a even better deal in a week or two. Meanwhile  the silver is not purchased and the game continues.

There is paper and there is physical. Buy the physical when you can and Really Buy The Physical when they offer it to you on sale. Do that as much as you can, over and over and you will be impressed with the results.

Don't worry about a couple of misses, think of all the wins. Good Luck!

BUDDHA PRINCESS
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Silver Correction??

Hey Turds. I am happy to be back on line. My computer died but it has been resurrected. Hallelujah!!!!!

ERIC2    It is a very interesting question, that my son has been pondering on himself as he is thinking to sell some now and wait for the dip to buy more.

Ben Davies said " Yes, we may see a sizeable correction, but we have entered the wild stage of a bull market. Y'all can't even imagine how much wilder it will get."

I also looked at http://www.bullionbaron.com/

and this is what he thinks . You must remember that nobody can tell you for sure what will happen as nobody knows and with silver being highly volatile metal, anything is possible. I like the advice given to you by one of the Turds. Buy half now and waite with the other half.  At the end it doesn't matter all that much, as long as you keep stacking whenever you can.

WHERE FOR SILVER?
"As I suggested would happen in a post on Saturday the metals started to correct in price following the announcement of a deal relating to the US debt ceiling.
It's only early days yet, we are still to find out whether we get the multiweek correction that I am anticipating.

Although it's taken longer than I thought to play out I still think we may get a deflationary period which takes the markets and metals down (something I suggested we would get post QE2), which will ultimately lead the Fed to initiating QE3 to prop things up again. In my opinion this action will have the potential to trigger the start of a parabolic move higher in the metals (potentially leading to the peak of this bull market). In the meantime though...

Silver%2525202011%252520August.png

After consolidating in a range following the collapse from $50, Silver is currently flirting with a fairly significant support line. If we see this breached to the downside (would probably want to see several days trading under US$39 for confirmation) it seems likely the price might head back down to test the low $30s and in my opinion if we see a period of deflation/asset price destruction then we may very well see a brief period under $30.

I still see Silver as an undervalued metal which will head higher. I still think the peak for this bull market is well over the $50 we saw in April. I still have significant exposure to this metal both through physical and related stocks. That said I also know that Silver is an extremely volatile metal at times and the corrections in price following the 2004, 2006 and 2008 spikes did not work their way through within a couple of months. Be mentally prepared for further downside in the price of Silver.

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I called my options broker

I called my options broker yesterday contemplating taking my December Silver call spreads off the table at 42 since Turd said he might be doing the same thing.   He reminded me that this was traditionally a bullish time for the metals and not many of his clients were selling. 

And then there was this article on King World News looking at $45.00

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/8/4_London_Trader_-_Expect_Gold_%26_Silver_Spike_From_Short_Covering.html

And then there was James Turk's interview on King World news that was very BULLISH for silver over the summer. 

Of course these are all counter to all the interviews that are concerned about another short squeeze.  

So who knows.   However, at the end of the summer I'm gonna start only reading those folks who called it right.  

One things for certain, it's gonna go lower, because it always does and nothing goes straight up,  and it will go higher.  And that being the case, all the advice that tells you to purchase it with a cost average overtime seems like good advice.  Because in the long run, $38, $40, $42 won't make much of a difference.

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No1Hunter
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Eric_2 wrote:Does any of the

Eric_2 wrote:
Does any of the knowledgable folks on the site have any thoughts or consensus on a possible pull back in the price of silver in the next couple weeks? I saw this post on KWN that seems to imply this may be a possibility. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/8/2_Ben_Davies_-_Look_For_Another_Short_Squeeze_in_Silver.html I hope to purchase about 100 ounces of physical soon and I'm trying to determine if I should wait or just pull the trigger. Thanks

I would say we are having a pull back today.  In fact, everything is dropping like a rock.  The guess now is where it will level off.

Green Lantern
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What a difference a couple of

What a difference a couple of hours make.  I just received an alert by one of my news letters... Maybe something big is around the corner. 

 

The global stock markets are selling off and it's not looking good.

 

The environment has quickly turned very bearish, both in the U.S. and globally. The technicals are turning bearish too.

 

The Dow Jones Transportations, for instance, has broken below its 65-week moving average, signaling the major trend is turning down. Plus, most of the other U.S. stock indices are at new lows for the year.

 

We lowered our stock and resource positions in June. But we now recommend selling all of your U.S. and global stocks, as well as your energy and resource stocks (totaling 30% of your total portfolio), and keep the proceeds in U.S. dollars for now.

 

Keep your metals, and gold and silver shares.

 

We'll write more later today in our regular weekly update.

 

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madcow
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to move my 401k stuff to

to move my 401k stuff to money markets, or wait a day and see what happens on mon. hmmmmm

Eric_2
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Thanks to all for the great

Thanks to all for the great advice! I realize of course that nobody can predict the future but the best advice is probably dollar cost average or the 50/50 buying strategy mentioned. Perhaps today's dip might be all the pull back we see. At the end of the day though, I am just a simple stacker and I'm trying to get the most when I trade in the paper. I'm just trying to avoid buying at a short term peak, though I am on it for the long haul and I am long term quite bullish.

Thanks again.

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