Timeline/progression for TSHTF?

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Indentured_Servant
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Timeline/progression for TSHTF?

While I know that no one can predict the future, I'd still like to know what members here think the timeline/progression will be for the impending global financial disaster?

Turd himself said today: "In order to survive, The Fed MUST now continue QE at an even greater pace. The PMs and all commodities will see their multi-year rallies accelerate. Economic conditions will continue to worsen. Tax revenues will remain stagnant or decline. The annual U.S. budget deficit will widen. The dollar index will break down through the March 2008 lows of around 71. The ratings agencies will be forced to downgrade U.S. debt once again. To keep rates on current and past debt low, The Fed will have to engage in even more QE. The entire U.S. ponzi scheme will continue circling the drain faster and faster until the bottom finally falls out.

And this is all going to happen a lot sooner than what you might think. Some say 2030. Some say 2025. I think we'll be lucky to make it through 2013. Oh, and don't ever forget, the favorite tools of distraction for the Fed/Govt/TPTB Complex are wars and insurrections. Plenty of that on the way, too. As we like to say around here, prepare accordingly."

Personally I've been educating myself and preparing since 2007. My attitude is that the sooner we hit bottom, the sooner we reach a point where the only direction is up. In fact, I'm rather disappointed that the collapse has not happened already! I'm in my mid-forties and to read that Turd thinks it will be a decade or more away is somewhat dismaying. Chris Martenson is fond of saying that "the next twenty years will not be like the last" . Fernando (FerFAL) Aguirre is still living squarely in the ongoing nightmare of a currency collapse that happened ten years ago. 

My wife and I have always lived below our means. We live modestly and have just about anything a reasonable person could want or need. I picture a future of "less" in most ways but do not believe that our "quality of life" will suffer much. Happiness comes from within but 20+ years of this crap will certainly test that belief. I want Americans to get through this without turning on each other or descending into a civil war. (a small but possible outcome since we are so divided) Americans are not immune to the stupidity most of us participated in to get us where we are today but we have always excelled at thinking outside the box. I hope we are still up to the task.

So how do you all see this mess progressing?

I_S

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:05
Dr Durden
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I've only been prepping for

I've been prepping for about a year now. When I first started, all I read was the COMEX was going to bust tomorrow, the dollar was dead and it was "game over" for the US.

Here we are chugging right along. 

I agree, more of the same + more of the same = more of the same. The stitching is definitely coming loose, but we are no where near bursting at the seams yet.

How come it's never as bad as "they" say it will be? How did we make it through as many wars and as many things that were supposed to eliminate us for so long? We've dropped nukes on each other! 

It takes a long time for a collective group to move through...

1) Denial

2) Anger

3) Bargaining

4) Depression/isolation

5) Acceptance

No matter how prepped you are, you still have to actively go through this socio-economic process. And were is main street USA in this right now?????? Don't get too ahead of yourselves. Remember the cycle.

__________________

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"It's called the American dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it." ~George Carlin

Jasper Puddlemaker
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As far as the

As far as the "timeline/progression" from here I can't say when the public will catch on en masse.   If we enter a hyperinflationary phase it can happen quickly, and would likely be set off by some event of "911" type magnitude; an event that results in markets being closed, a bank holiday, currency implosion, and so forth.  If that happens it could shift us into the next phase in a matter of weeks,  or even days.  But who can say when such an event will occur next?  Without such an event we could keep grinding steadily downward (without panic) for years.

Lately I have been focusing a lot of my thoughts on  what will be the duration of this period we are in.  I see it as beginning with the meltdown in 2008, but a case can also be made that it began in 2001.  Using the work/thoughts of historians such as Armstrong, and Howe and Strauss, it would not surprise me one bit if it takes until 2025-2033 to get out of this mess.   I can say with certainty that the US, and the world, will look very different on the other side.

JoeKa
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wrong thread. deleted msg.

wrong thread. deleted msg.

mespe
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timeline for SHTF

TODAY,  SHTF + 1

http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2011/07/28/thieves-steal-at-least-113-bronze-vases-from-newhall-cemetary/

http://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2011/07/28/two-men-arrested-for-stealing-guard-rails-from-tuolumne-county-road/

http://washingtonexaminer.com/local/2011/07/thieves-steal-uniform-vehicle-firehouse

http://www.infowars.com/busting-posse-comitatus-military-cops-arrest-civilians-in-florida-city/

http://articles.boston.com/2011-07-28/lifestyle/29826064_1_food-pantries-family-physicians-emergency-room

http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2011/07/28/man-shot-while-feeding-oakland-homeless-dies/

http://www.politico.com/blogs/joshgerstein/0711/TSA_readying_new_behavior_detection_plan_for_airport_checkpoints.html

http://www.wlsam.com/Article.asp?id=2248565&spid=

If this isn't shit hitting the fan,,, please tell me what is?

UGrev
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Behavior detection? w h a t

Behavior detection? w h a t  t h e  f u c k is that supposed to do? detect someone in bowl pains as a terrorist because he's fidgety?

Guilty until proven innocent.. that's what this has all become.  

Indentured_Servant
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mespe wrote: TODAY,  SHTF +

mespe wrote:

TODAY,  SHTF + 1

<<<Big Snip>>>

If this isn't shit hitting the fan,,, please tell me what is?

I agree that the links you provided certainly provide evidence that the SHTF is underway but it can be viewed as a simple cyclical increase in crime. When I drive by Wally World and numerous restaurants and see them full it's a bit hard to equate that with TSHTF.

I believe the SHTF began in 2001 at the latest so we are nearly ten years in with no bottom in sight let alone a turn-around. If Turd, Armstrong and others are right and the bottom does not fall out completely until 2025-2030 then this is going to be slow agony. Recovery would begin and continue for at least a decade or more after that. I expect a recovery to move as slow as the decline so were talking about 30 years or more to which is quite a long time for civility to break down. What a bitch! Hopefully that breakdown can be properly directed to those responsible.

I_S

FalseParadigm
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12-18 months

After QE3 is launched the US (and the rest of the world) has approx. 12-18 months in my eyes until the world as we know it changes forever.

This is the order things play out in my eyes:

1. The debt ceiling is raised one way or another but doesn't impress the rating agencies. 
2. The rating agencies downgrade US bonds
3. Equities drop like a brick.  Within a few weeks, the DOW is crashing down toward 10,000 and the S&P heads to 1,100 and looks like it will hit 1,000. 
4. Washington and Wall Street both beg the Bernank to do something. 
5. Bernanke happily obliges.  Bernanke says that inflationary risks have subsided and that deflationary risks have re-emerged.  QE3 is announced. 
6. The clock begins to tick.  China stays silent for a few months as is begins to buy massive amounts of gold, silver, and other commodities.
7. Sometime in 2012 China announces that it has tried to work with the US for long enough.  Rampant inflation is really taking a toll and that it can no longer finance US debt.  They then announce that they are liquidating their USD holdings and demand a change in the world reserve currency.
8. Some point after #7 a massive world war breaks out.  Who attacks who is up for debate.
9. After a period of devastating global war, the governments that remain are eager for peace.  Some form of new global government emerges and offers to end all the war by creating a new global currency that is fully backed by gold and silver. 
10. The nations drowning in debt sign on to the new currency in exchange for having their debt forgiven so long as they give up whatever national sovereignty they have left. 

The EU, ECB, IMF, etc. have already stated that the reason why the Euro is failing is because that members of the Eurozone have not yet formed an international governing body.  They've already proposed that Eurozone members work collectively not only in economics but in government as well.

This is why I think the dollar will be the first to go.  The Euro is part of the future for the financial oligarchs.  When the dollar fails, they'll say that no individual nation can ever again have the global reserve currency.  They'll instead, propose that a universal global currency be introduced in order to prevent future economic depression and global conflicts.

This is exactly what they tried to do following WWI with the League of Nations.  It failed.  Shortly after we have WWII.  Following WWII the UN was created which set the stage for where we are today.

Call it what you will, but this isn't conspiracy theory IMO.  It is an inevitability. 

Keg
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Don't under estimate TPTB

Don't under estimate TPTB and their ability to string this out longer than we think would be possible.  A huge majority of the population has no understanding of what is going on and will only believe it after the fact.  I was talking to a group of recent college graduates recently and not one of them knew what the Fed was.  The normalcy bias is real and looking back it has effected my reactions to situations.  When I point out things that could happen I often get the response "but this is the United States" as if large scale financial and social breakdown could never happen here.  This all plays into the hands of those trying hide the truth.

I tend to agree with SeverinSlade that 12-18 months is the time frame if current trend lines continue.  But it could be much longer as TPTB keep the uneducated off balance with their smoke and mirrors.  On the other hand, there could be some event that would be the trigger to set it off earlier.

I do believe that there will be a trigger event.  It may be some event that you have not anticipated.  At that point we will be in the rapids headed for the waterfall.  Things will happen quick.  

FalseParadigm
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True but...

Keg wrote:

Don't under estimate TPTB and their ability to string this out longer than we think would be possible.  A huge majority of the population has no understanding of what is going on and will only believe it after the fact.  I was talking to a group of recent college graduates recently and not one of them knew what the Fed was.  The normalcy bias is real and looking back it has effected my reactions to situations.  When I point out things that could happen I often get the response "but this is the United States" as if large scale financial and social breakdown could never happen here.  This all plays into the hands of those trying hide the truth.

I tend to agree with SeverinSlade that 12-18 months is the time frame if current trend lines continue.  But it could be much longer as TPTB keep the uneducated off balance with their smoke and mirrors.  On the other hand, there could be some event that would be the trigger to set it off earlier.

I do believe that there will be a trigger event.  It may be some event that you have not anticipated.  At that point we will be in the rapids headed for the waterfall.  Things will happen quick.  

I agree, if TPTB wanted to keep the Ponzi scheme going they certainly could.  But I don't think they will specifically because of the point you made regarding the normalcy bias.  The longer they drag this out the more time they give ignorant Americans (and citizens of other countries) to wake up and see the real puppet masters.  Also just simply looking at how the US government is becoming more and more aggressively in its police state style crack downs you can tell that they're preparing for the you know what to hit the fan.

The financial oligarchs are likely going to move swiftly to capitalize on the mass ignorance.  You're absolutely right on your assertion that some sort of false flag will likely trigger the shift to the new paradigm.  But this, again, only works if the masses are living in ignorance.  It's hard to create a constant sense of fear and paranoia if the public is well aware that the government is the one responsible for the war.

To be honest things are happening faster than even I was predicting.  12 months ago when I began making predictions I didn't think a possible US downgrade would even be possible until after QE3.  But the fact that independent rating agencies, including China's only one, are already downgrading US bonds or considering it shows how dire the situation is.

My advice to people is spread the word to all of your friends and family, as well as everyday people you come into contact with.  Continue stacking physical gold and silver.  Accumulate food, water, and ammo.  And most important of all if you are a person of faith...Pray. 

Things will ultimately play out exactly how they are supposed to.  We are fighting a war that cannot be won IMO.  That doesn't mean we should give up though.  If anything it is our obligation to stand toe to toe with evil and always resist tyranny.

 

Jasper Puddlemaker
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Keg wrote: Don't under

Keg wrote:

Don't under estimate TPTB and their ability to string this out longer than we think would be possible.  A huge majority of the population has no understanding of what is going on and will only believe it after the fact. ...

Yes.  I expected it to fail before this.   That is one of the lessons I have learned over the last decade:  I am always too early.

For sure, the majority of Americans will always NOT see critical problems developing, and will have no understanding of them when they occur.  They will only react after the event.   That is always how it is; probably with other societies too, but for sure with American society.

Keg wrote:

I do believe that there will be a trigger event.  It may be some event that you have not anticipated.  At that point we will be in the rapids headed for the waterfall.  Things will happen quick.  

Yes.  It might only take one more black swan to open the  flood gates.  Maybe a couple, but it is only a matter of time. 

One thing I tend to disagree with is the often proclaimed all-knowing and all-powerful role people give to "TPTB."  The DC bureaucracy is a conglomeration of ass-kissers at all levels who are falling over each other to kiss the biggest ass at the top.  I put the multi-national corporate folks in the same category.   I think the kill-or-be-killed mentality they have ensures they are not the well-oiled,  capable, and all-knowing machine that many assume they are.

hpx
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Worst case scenario - it takes a long, long time

As long as there is a middle-class, or a not completely impoverished lower class, there is wealth that can be stolen. Depending on from where you look, the US has had its middle class squeezed either since 2007, 2001 or 1971 (with a counteracting force in effectivity gains from information technology). Two things can stop the madness :

  • Popular uprising
  • A cascading mistake by TPTB, leading to hyperinflation or complete deflationary collapse

The longer things go on, the higher the chance/risk for either of the two. In my view, the real struggle starts afterward. Those who have something except sawdust between their ears, and has any understanding at all of liberty, freedom and the conditions of human existance is going to have the battle of our lives. Because if (or as most of you would probably say, when) the great unraveling starts, it's do or die for the entire Western world. Totalitarian madness, or a new enlightening? I can't really say, but fact remains that besides struggling to make every day life function, those who want any hope for future generations are going to have to dedicate the rest of their lives to clearing up this mess. It can probably done. But it might not be.

Without sounding too epic or ridiculous, we all have to decide what our role is going to be in whatever future is coming. Choose wisely. I'm starting to hope for a collapse as soon as possible, so the pieces on the board can start moving. Until then, prep, prep, prep ....

ouchtouch
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China owns dollar denominated

China owns dollar denominated assets like US Treasuries not because it loves Treasuries or US dollars, but as a function of simple math.  They need to sell the US crap and all we are willing to pay with is dollars.  There is no place for them to "dump" their treasuries -- they would just be exchanging them for dollars which yield even less.  If they stop accepting dollars for the crap they send us we will stop buying it.  Then China collapses in bloody revolution because the only thing pacifying the population is jobs making crap to sell Americans.  China is trapped.

In my view it will be a long slow slide.  China will continue to try to exchange its dollars for hard assets around the world, expecially gold.  Gradually the American (and EU) economies will become bad enough, and the price of oil to ship the crap across the ocean will be so high, that the whole system will no longer be feasible.  We won't have any money to buy Chinese crap. 

Thus, a deflationary collapse will precede the hyperinflation.  Maybe if Bernanke tries really hard he can speed things up.  He should announce a plan to buy every bad dollar denominated debt on the planet, that oughtta do it.

Jasper Puddlemaker
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hpx wrote: I'm starting to

hpx wrote:

I'm starting to hope for a collapse as soon as possible, so the pieces on the board can start moving. Until then, prep, prep, prep ....

It would  be so much better for our capitalist society if cycles were allowed to run their courses without intervention.  Instead, bubbles are encouraged and patched and inflated until we get a nuclear-size explosion (or implosion)  instead of the much smaller "pop" that should have happened.   I don't see much of a difference between our present economic model and that of the old Soviet Union; a managed economy is a managed economy regardless of what flag flies over the country.  

I'll bet you our illustrious business schools will continue to propagate their modern Keynesian managed economy bullshit long after the system implodes.    Institutions of higher learning (and their professors) almost never admit they are wrong.  Watch for their excuses and scapegoats when this one finally implodes.

My goal:  Prepare in a way that will allow me and/or my family to be one of those who can help our society  rebuild after this socioeconomic crisis runs its course.

Bongo Jim
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Like I said before...soon.

Like I said before...soon.

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