Sugar is kicking some serious butt!

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Titus Andronicus
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Sugar is kicking some serious butt!

Are there any sugar traders out there?  Is there a forum somewhere to discuss sugar?

I made a lot of money last year on sugar (it was my first futures investment) and I've made some good money over the last couple weeks.

If this year is like last year (and so far the chart looks very similar to last year), there is some more serious money to be made in this market over the next few months.

But I really don't know much about it other than Jim Rogers thinking it's going to "go a lot higher".  (I also read the chapter in his book about it).

Can anyone throw in some knowledge or comments?  Or as Dr. Evil would say, "Throw me a friggin' bone here!"

PS: I know this does not belong in the "Grains" Forum, but I didn't want to throw it in the "Everything Else" bucket.  Sorry.

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:18
CK
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Sugar is the ultimate daddy

Sugar is the ultimate daddy of em all.   It's so insane how fast it flew up.  I bought some at 22 and 23 then sold it off a bit too early.  What a complete monster it is.

Rice tumbled down a bit last week and then FLEW up immediately.  Rogers is ultra bullish on rice too.  I really wish sugar would come back down but it doesn't look like anything's gonna stop it.

According to rogers we coulda just went long Rice, Sugar and Natural Gas and can basically sit on hands.  Jim is without a doubt my favorite investor.

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Titus Andronicus
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Basic story behind sugar

I guess that this news is the basic story behind recent sugar price action:

Drop in sugar output from Brazil expected

Drop in sugar output from Brazil expected

PanARMENIAN.Net - Sugar output from Brazil, the world's biggest exporter, is expected to fall this year for the first time in five years according to Unica, Brazil's cane industry association.

Unica has revised its earlier forecast downwards and now expects the critical centre-south region to produce around 1m tonnes less than the 33.5m tonnes produced last year.

This forecast was revised following a spell of bad weather across the centre-south region, which hit ageing cane plantations.

The impact on the global market could be dramatic due to the fact that Brazil is the only major grower that sells during the northern hemisphere's summer. Supply concerns have already seen the price of ICE raw sugar rise by 34% to 27.44 cents after falling 43% from February to May.

Antonio de Padua Rodrigues, Unica's technical director, said "The centre-south region is showing a really strong and significant reduction in terms of the quantity of cane produced. But apart from a lower offer of cane, the quality has been badly affected," Procurement Leaders reported.

Titus Andronicus
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Sugar, bitchez!

Up over 4% to 30.21.

Here's the chart which shows what I'm hoping to see again this year.   Will it shoot up to 40 this year?

Last year I doubled my seed capital in July with sugar before moving to palladium and silver in August.  Why not the same for 2011?  Maybe there's a reason, but I'm going to wait for Mr. Market to tell it to me.

Another reason I like sugar is that no one seems to be talking about it.  Isn't this the 3rd summer rally in a row?

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More sugar story.
  trans.gif  

(from http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/3/4/161510943.html)

Jul 12, 2011 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- (Updates throughout. Adds settlement price, analysts' comments and background on sugar cane estimates.)

--October sugar hits contract high

--Brazil's main sugar industry group to lower harvest Wednesday

--ICE sugar futures are up 50% from May lows

By Leslie Josephs
 Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Sugar futures in London and New York soared Tuesday, a day before a major sugar industry group in top grower Brazil is expected to slash its estimate for the country's 2011-12 harvest.

Raw sugar for October delivery surged 5.4% to settle at 30.49 cents a pound, a high for the contract. White sugar futures in London rose 4.4% to settle at $779.30 per ton.

Brazilian sugar-industry group Unica said it will release on Wednesday a lower estimate for the country's 2011-12 sugar-cane harvest and sugar production. An economist at Unica last week said the group may reduce its sugar production estimate for the center-south, the country's main growing region, by as much as 2 million metric tons, which would put it 1 million under the previous year's production of 33.5 million tons.

"The Brazilian crop continues to shrink," said Country Hedging analyst Sterling Smith. "The market is reacting like one that is in tight supply."

Analysts are already cutting their harvest estimates as abnormally dry weather last year and unseasonable rain and cold this year is expected to hurt sugar yields from the cane.

Last week, U.K. sugar dealer Czarnikow Sugar Ltd. cut its sugarcane harvest estimate for the center-south growing region by 7% to 535 million tons.

Macquarie analyst Kona Haque said Unica may reduce its current harvest estimate of 568.5 million to between 520 million and 540 million metric tons.

"While the three-month outlook remains in our view bearish, due to the looming surplus expected to emanate from the developing Northern Hemisphere new crops, it appears that in the short term traders continue to factor in supply-side risks associated with Brazil's poor agricultural cane yields," said Haque.

Sugar futures have rallied nearly 50% since hitting an eight-month low in early May.

But the current high prices may cool demand for the sweetener.

"I think the market is just getting carried away," said Luis Rangel, a vice president at ICAP Futures. "This does not seem to be fundamentally driven. I don't think we'll go back to the recent lows of around 20.5c [per pound], but somewhere between here and there is where the market belongs."

-By Leslie Josephs, Dow Jones Newswires, 212-416-4055, leslie.josephs@dowjones.com

--Caroline Henshaw in London contributed to this article.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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Agree about no one talking

Agree about no one talking about sugar.  Same for rice.   All agriculture really.  I was buying Beef at $103-104 after the huge sell off and it shot up to $115 so fast.   Agriculture is the best.

Everyone talks about gold and silver but it's amazing to see how little talk there is of agriculture.  That's how u know it's gonna outperform everything else.

Keeping my eye on Cotton.  Has to be bottoming pretty soon.  Clearly would like it to sell all the way down to no mans land.  Nothing would be nicer than a huge sell off of all agriculture... but we just saw rice sell down to $14 and shoot right back up to $17 in 2 weeks.

By now I should own the whole agriculture sector.  Rice, Sugar, Beef, Wheat, Cocoa, Coffee, Cotton... wouldn't mind owning corn/soy after huge sell offs, but sticking with the more depressed commodities is clearly better.

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