What do you prepare for?

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Piledriver
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What do you prepare for?

Alot of the comments I have seen here assume that America's financial collapse will be MILD, i.e, you will still have a job, a home, use a car, have electricity and other utilities.

Assumptions are made that folks will be able to defend their wooden houses with glass windows with guns. Assumptions are made that there will still be goods to buy in the stores with hyperinflated money.  And assumptions are made that you will be able to grow a garden and the food will still be there in the morning.

Aren't all of these assumptions dangerous?

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:06
UGrev
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Piledriver wrote: Alot of the

Piledriver wrote:

Alot of the comments I have seen here assume that America's financial collapse will be MILD, i.e, you will still have a job, a home, use a car, have electricity and other utilities.

Assumptions are made that folks will be able to defend their wooden houses with glass windows with guns. Assumptions are made that there will still be goods to buy in the stores with hyperinflated money.  And assumptions are made that you will be able to grow a garden and the food will still be there in the morning.

Aren't all of these assumptions dangerous?

Of course. But not everyone can pack up EVERYTHING they have and move to 100 acres in the middle of no where. So we plan the best we can, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Part of that preparation is slowly growing a community of supporters around you so you don't become a target. 

Homesteader
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Piledriver wrote: Aren't all

Piledriver wrote:

Aren't all of these assumptions dangerous?

You're lumping a LOT of assumptions together.  If you can't grow a garden, then you ain't gonna make it long term anyway.

You can go find PLENTY of websites that assume just the opposite......that the world is going to Mad Max.  But the 'odds' are we won't, the 'odds' say the situation will simply continue to deteriorate just like it has for the last 50 years, with your money becoming more and more worthless each passing day, and if you don't move into some alternative form of savings, you will end up broke in old age.

That said, the prudent squirrel plans for the worst case winter, storing lots of different nuts, and hopes for a mild winter.

asymptote
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MY assumptions (for

MY assumptions (for Australia):

-Our government will swept along with the tide. They have a history of doing a half job on the right thing, but making things worse. They are not as evil as the US. They are inept. Policy will be to nationalize the banks and return to business as usual. They will do anything to save 'the big four'.

-There will be food supply disruptions. Exports will slow or stop and this will put us in hot water with Asia, because 'someone has to do something' about the supply problems in the city. Once there are queues and death from starvation, fear of the 'yellow invasion from the north' will subside.

-Supermarkets will be empty for months. Government will put price controls on all soft commodities, grains etc based on some 'normal' value they pick. This will cause shortfalls that will be 'managed' with government food distribution centres.

-Business will be broken. Nobody will hire, as the population watches the world go mad. Petrol rationing or simple shortages will settle down in to normality as the gians (US, China, Russia, etc) due our squatting rights over the oilfields. Some overpopulated nations will likely choose to go out in a blaze of glory, rather than internal unrest (ala Japan in WW2).

-High unemployment, no jobs available, will lead to make work (for food), and probably large public programs (We have done this before). This will resemble slavery to those working for the food. High crime, mostly petty or violent(See my martial arts thread for my thinking there)

That's what I plan for. The world I see resembles 1984, and I'm a prole.

chinaussiedoll
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I have to agree with you

but I do think Australia has some advantages:
A fairly unified cultural community with history of tolerance
A tradition of innovation and creative thinking - individual attempts to "have a go" at solving your own problems (not apparent here in Asia)
An older generation that still has memories and skills to pass on to the younger generation, not that far removed from the land
Smaller cities hence not the flood of population to spread out into the countryside in search of food
Many homes going to solar
Many homes with own water tanks
Some communities and groups of people already preparing.

asymptote
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Yes. Good points! We also

Yes. Good points!

We also have a decent rail system supplied by coal (external independence) and most cities have a decent bus system supplied by natgas(external independence), so I agree that we will see through the worst of it.

On the downside we have a entitlement mentality(Social security + medicare = ~65% of government spending).

Our earth is extremely poor for growing despite the fact we're a net food exporter, and historically we have a history of destroying land in a desperate attempt at 'making it productive'. The most productive land is now covered by suburbia in most locations. 

Primary production area's once connected by rail have been disconnected, so food requires trucking. Also, primary production area's within 2-3 hours drive of cities are being converted in to 'rural lifestyle' locales. Horses, Weekenders and Hobby farms, etc. 

Very poor manufacturing base means we cannot create a lot of our own tools and machinery now. 

Overall, a economic crisis here can be in general planned for. A 6-10 year long world resource war cannot be, at we have a lot of external dependencies in particular on external oil and manufactured goods.

chinaussiedoll
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True

The level of government spending on social programs is very high in Australia but not being a baby boomer I'm not expecting there to be anything left in the pot for me. I can see some sort of forced nationalisation of Superannuation savings .

Manufacturing has been closed down in most of Australia and the infrastructure sold off. My local technical college sold off all their machinery around 15 years ago as we were moving to a "knowledge based economy". Ironically I've witnessed the same thing happening in Hong Kong and now over the border in Shenzhen, China too.
Ditto the covering of the most fertile farmland in housing.

I am just hoping to prepare for myself and loved ones by providing a low energy living environment and as much independence food wise as possible.

I 'm currently weighing up the advantages of Gippslamd v Central Vic fertile soil, higher rainfall but colder and longer Winters.

asymptote
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I was reading a book recently

I was reading a book recently called 'Collapse'. It;s more about environment, but has whole chapters just on Australia, and it's problems. One area he highlighted as one o the few 'ex-volcanic' area's of Australia is Adelaide. I's from Sydney and like the weather here, so looking around this area we also have Taralga\Crookwell. Cheap farmland, basalt soils (rare), but elevation is 800m, so weather would feel like it's a lot further south. Byron o course is the other basalt area but drastically overpriced now.

Also considering New Zealand a little, and have an odd desire to consider WA, north of Perth. I read a growers blog of the Gippsland, looks productive. 

The theft of superannuation(or SMSF's) is a real concern. That's about my limit I think! They try- that- am I'm -out-. 

lazytrader
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I was reading a book recently

I would go south of Perth. Probably 2 hours south. Good weather with rain, however prices are through the roof.

chinaussiedoll
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South of Perth prices dropping dramatically

My brother lives down that way near Margret River. Prices are way, way down, nothing is selling. He's in the building game and two years ago was working every day of the year! Now he counts the few days he can get any work. Unless you want to go North to the mines there's very little happening. His own house was valued at 750K two years ago, now on the market at 430k and no serious offers.
He says there are heaps and heaps of Perth "weekenders/retiree" homes on the market - lots and lots of bank repossessions.

chinaussiedoll
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Collapse

Is that the Jarod Diamond book? I have it, just haven't gotten around to reading it yet. Not sure about NZ - have quite a few friends from there here in Hong Kong and many of them seem to be looking to settle in Australia - especially the ones from Christchurch :(

Wouldn't water be a big problem north of Perth (unless it's The Kimberly - amazing place but way far from big city lights!)

asymptote
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Yes. Jarod Diamond. Picked it

Yes. Jarod Diamond. Picked it up in the airport on the way to Fiji. My thoughts on NZ is that it has ample water, natural energy (hydro\geothermal), volcanic soils. A crappy dollar to exploit( :) ), common language and heritage(non confrontational) are both white friendly (I'm not likely to be accepted in a Khmer society in hard time, NZ OTOH may be fine). Christchirch was a pressure release. If it knocked down a 200yo church, then to me, they had a minimum of 200years without anything that big previously. That gives fairly good odds moving forwards as these are not random events. Plus, I bet real estate would be cheap there for quite a while! LOL...

I stopped looking north of Perth. Jumped on the streetview, and what I saw looked aweful. Jump on the streetview of Mt Wilson, NSW. Kind of pricey though. 1200mm annual rain. 1200m elevation. 

lazytrader
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Oh yeah holiday homes in and

Oh yeah holiday homes in and around Margaret River have been cheap since the GFC. I assumed folk here were more after farmland, my bad.

South Island of NZ is relatively unpopulated but with ice cold wind. We have a joke when on holiday there that we visited "so and so town" but it was closed for the day. House prices are high in NZ considering the terrible wages.

chinaussiedoll
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Nope you were right about the farmland but I think what has

happened is that the holiday home/suburban spread has grown over a lot of the best land.

Will have a look at NSW town - maybe just a little too much rainfall. Kinda like Harcourt, in Vic, used to be apple orchards when I was a kid, now some of it is vineyards - but would want soil tests for residual poisons in soil before I bought. Mt Alexander brings rainfall down into the valley _ even in the last drought (13 years) the land was still productive. Smaller farms still quite reasonable.

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You will need soil/water bore

You will need soil/water bore tests for OC/OP pesticides. The onus for this is on the seller if the land is possibly contaminated.

Good Luck.

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