Kondratiev Wave (& Martin Armstrong)

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RedRover
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Kondratiev Wave (& Martin Armstrong)

I was looking at annual trends w/ stimulus patterns, Turd shared & that's
what lead me to believe the pattern would be the same... b/c of the stimulus.
But, what Armstrong seems to be saying.. is that they pattern has changed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave

I've been famiarizing myself w/ his kondratiev wave, supercycle philosophy
& I think it has some merit, looking at it in retrospect.. ( which is always 20/20).
He also talks  about the flow of money, globally and how his computers...

... were able to track (after the fact), that money was being moved around the globe
in a specific way by someone that seemed to know where to put the money, like they
were following a pattern. Narrowly escaping disasters and earthquakes ... 

... and that he was able to see by tracking the capital flow globally (after the fact).

Let's discuss guys! I want to talk merge Turd's intellectual internet forum creation
and apply it to the Kondratiev Super Cycle theory.  What do you think of the supercycle theory?
Below you can download Armstrong's PDF and it'll let you see what I'm talking about in more depth.

http://armstrongeconomics.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/armstrongeconomics...

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:09
John Galt
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Armstrong

Armstrong has projected much higher precious metals prices in the future, but what I'm reading here sounds quite bearish in the near term. This essay needs to be weighed with everything else he's written re: multiple waves and timelines to get a sense of the bigger picture.

One thought that does come to mind is that Armstrong is familiar with, and embraces, aspects of the Mayan Calendar. That said, if the MC suggests that time as we know it is speeding up, could it be that in Gregorian calendar terms (which is the way most of us measure time today) the cycle waves are compressing?

As an example, a couple years ago a hammering down of the gold or silver price could take months to correct. Now the rebounds can take place within days, or even hours in some cases.

__________________

"So you think that money is the root of all evil.
Have you ever asked what is the root of all money?"

RedRover
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Re: Kondratiev Wave (& Martin Armstrong)

RedRover
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Re: Armstrong

John Galt, relative to your question & interpreting it from a gregorian calendar perspective. Armstrong uses length of time. So.. he is saying (to reference Turd's use fo the term "head & shoulders"). This shoulder that is being created, is a 2.15 year time period beginning from June 16th/17th So.. he's saying that around July 2013, we'll switch up the cycle again and then that will play out for 1.08 years (what seems like late July/ August 2014).

I looked back and if you look @ the chart below, in 1977.o5, we were @ correlating time frame if you go by Martin's current calculations of where we are now 2 the bottom of the building shoulder (chart referenced below), where in 1977 it was building... we are doing the same now. So gold and silver would be considered at a low.

But then, what throws a kink in it.. is if you look @ 1972.75 (at the top of the shoulder) that was a gold low..
So it just seems like conflicting information? take a look below and see what I'm saying. Cheers!


 

dropout
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Cycles

I am a firm believer in cycles. After many years of studying and learning as much as possible, (still learning) about the cycles of economics, I have come to the conclusion that there are five main rhythm's of economic behavior, with many sub-rhythm's that comprise the world of what is generally known as "business." These five main cycles are;  

1/ A 120 year epoch cycle Ending/Beginning a new paradigm.

2/ A 60 year Kondratiev cycle Technological innovation/advancement.

3/ A 30 year Kuznets cycle Infrastructure increase/renewal.

4/ A 10 year Juglar cycle Fixed investment.   

5/ A 6 year Kitchin cycle Inventory or what is generally called the "business cycle".  

The 'bottoming' or ending/beginning of these cycles have economic upheavals attached to them. Some can be "virtuous" while others may be "vicious". It depends upon the sub-cycles as to whether these beginnings/endings portend prosperity or poverty.

My studies have shown the following timings for bottoms of these five main cycles:

1/ 120 year - Summer 2014

2/ 60 year - Summer 2011

3/ 30 year - Winter 2011/2012

4/ 10 year - Winter/Spring 2012

5/ 6 year - Summer 2014

The above comes from studying the works of the following among others;

Nikolai Kondratiev - (1892-1938)

Clement Juglar - (1819-1905)

Simon Kuznets - (1901-1985)

Joseph Kitchin - (1861-1932)

Joseph Schumpeter - (1883-1950)

Ralph Elliott - (1871-1948)

Andrey Korotayev - (1961-    )

This is by no means a complete list, however is meant as a starting point for those interested in further cycle study.

A good internet site to start is;

http://www.longwavegroup.com 

As may be seen in these bottom timings all occuring within a 3 year time frame (give or take a year or so) one must suspect a greater force at work. Could a "super cycle" or a "grand cycle" encompassing these five cycles be coming into play? Time and further study will tell. One thing is certain - this next 3 to 5 years will see massive upheavals in global economics, causing massive politico/social upheavals, of which we are beginning to see the results on a global scale.

Note: My cycle studies as to 'bottoms' was completed in the Autumn/Winter of 2008.

RedRover
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I was just introduced to this

I was just introduced to this prediction model.  Don't know who made it, but it
seems to be from May & pretty accurate (right?). MorganSLV on youtube posted it.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/61834461@N02/5719493876/sizes/l/in/photostream/

 

donpaulo
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GPM

yes I have spoken with GPM, the guy posting the flickr data on paltalk in the silver room.

During the silver run up to near 50 it was a great place to drop in and talk metals and economics and trends and hear others analysis and conclusions. Recently with summer and the ugly sideways grinding of silver as it approaches its 200 day moving average that room has dropped off to almost no members except a few die hards.

As far as Kondratieff err Kondratiev waves are concerned I found it fascinating as well. Its  a great source of information about stock and commodity prices hopefully going forward.

I would also state its my understanding that Kondratieff's wave were 54 years not 60, with the corresponding sub cycles of 27, 13 etc.

One should also include the sunspot cycle of approximately 11 years which dove tails nicely with such datasets as Pisa grain prices for over 300 years, the price of oil since 1946.

I recommend Roy Tomes who is my go to guy on cycle theory. Very approachable and has a nice site dedicated to the study.

Rico
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Has it ever occured to you

Has it ever occured to you guys that if the cycle people were right, i.e. had a crystal ball that foretold the future (which is what they claim), that they would be the wealthiest people on Earth?  Why isn't that so?

donpaulo
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well

for starters a 54 year cycle isn't something you build instant wealth off of is it ?

bobby
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I want some of what he's

Looks like it was a post and pull event.

firstsilver
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And what of Elliott waves, others?

It's been my experience that cycles and long-term waves might be factors to be considered in building the overall case for an investment theme, but there is a decided lack of proof as to how effective they are in making really useful short-term timing indications for investment decisions.

Examples of failures are many. Look at Robert Prechter, who's been negative on gold and silver for a long, long time based on his Elliott Waves. Any day, though, he'll be right. Just ask him.

As for Kondratiev, I've seen widely varying lengths in terms of years for the long cycle. If we can't even agree on length, how effective can it be? If you massage these things enough, sure, they can be made to look prescient, but after the fact. You can't live life looking in the rear-view mirror.

Larry Edelson of Weiss Research is a big cycles guy, and he's been incorrect about many things including precious metals in recent months.

In general, when the cycles, waves, whatever don't match up with what happens, the practitioners always seem to find a flaw in their math and recalculate to be correct in hindsight. When money's on the line, that's not especially helpful.

Instead of cycles and waves, it probably would be better to attempt to identify societal and demographic trends, as Celente does, to decide how to invest.

Rico
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The only way to "invest" is

The only way to "invest" is to study price behavior.

firstsilver
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Seems like we have a debate

Seems like we have a debate on semantics.

If all you follow is price behavior, that's trading. To borrow from the Seinfeld episode, "Not that there's anything wrong with that ...."

But if you look at other factors, sometimes anticipating for reasons both fundamental and technical where price behavior might be bound to improve in the long run -- drinking upstream from the herd is how James Dines describes the practice -- that's a different time parameter and investing is the generally accepted term for it.

Real-world examples would be the China bulls who were early, the rare earth bulls who were early, the mortgage bears who were early. Some had to wait years for the payoff that was not readily apparent in terms of price when they invested. Still, they made lots of profit.

donpaulo
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I feel its folly to simply

I feel its folly to simply dismiss wave theory.

You can ignore it but that doesn't make it any less valid.

As a long term investor with a buy and forget err hold position (Chris Martenson calls it his Rip Van Winkle position) the wave theory holds a lot of interest for me.

Is it the primary element of my diligence ? hardly but it is a necessary part of the decision making process.

with over 500 years of food price data available for research I find it interesting to see regular cyclical patterns in the charts. Why would one avoid such pertinent data ?

Nobody is saying that all wave theoriest are correct, but there is something to the beast. I prefer to known something about it.

however to each his or her own and may fortune smile upon us all

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