Silver Looks Like Dipping Below $30

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Old Major
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Silver Looks Like Dipping Below $30

Did you guys see this story today? 

http://marketoracle.co.uk/Article28910.html

Silver Looks Like Dipping Below $30

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011 Jun 26, 2011 - 01:07 PM

By: Clive_Maund

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs Stockcharts no longer see fit to run usable charts for silver and various other commodities - line charts are only suitable for schoolkids or journalists doing projects on the markets, not for serious analysis - we are going to use the chart for iShares Silver Trust (SLV) as a stand in for silver. It is a very accurate proxy, and should continue to be, unless of course, the markets were suddenly to discover that they don't have the silver in their vaults that they say they have.

 

slv6month250611.gif

It doesn't look good, people - both gold and silver broke down from Triangles on Friday, after looking like they were about to break out upside on Wednesday. We can see this breakdown on the 6-month chart for our proxy iShares, which occurred on a noticable pickup on volume, which is also bearish. This was a rather complicated one to call, because of conflicting factors, and because we couldn't call it, we did a Straddle a few days back, that promises to pay off handsomely. Here's why it was complicated - the high volume plunge early in May was bearish, with various factors indicating that silver had burned out for the foreseeable future, chief among these being the frenzy of public participation that had been whipped up by cheerleaders some of whom were talking about silver at $300 an ounce, and which resulted in volume in silver reaching climactic levels as it rose to become extraordinarily overbought.

On the other hand silver had fallen back a lot to a point not very far above its rising 200-day moving average, and with none of the problems in the world financial system having been fixed - on the contrary, they have gotten worse, it is easy to see how silver could stage a significant rally from here. However, the market appears to have declared itself with the breakdown on Friday, and with the savage reversal back to the downside in the broad stockmarket late in the week, so that it is perilously close to crashing key support and plunging, so the stage may well be set for another sharp selloff in silver, the initial downside target for which would be the zone of support in the approx. $28.50 - $30.30 area shown on the chart.

slv4year250611.gif

While the long-term chart for gold shows a steady uptrend that looks set to continue, free from the kind of speculative excess that would indicate a possible top, the same cannot be said for the 4-year chart for silver, on which the late April peak looks like even more of an anomaly. This chart suggests that at best silver needs more of a rest before it can gain serious traction again, and that it is likely to dip to the $28 - $30 area first - lower still if the stockmarket tanks as look likely soon - more on this subject in the Gold Market update.

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 06:09
tmosley
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Yes, all paper will go to

Yes, all paper will go to zero.

The real stuff, not so much.

Old Major
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I would love to load up around 28.00

I would love to load up around 28.00 and then wait till Aug/Sept for the next move up.

Warren Peace
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Retail Separation

Just checked prices at APMEX for retail silver prices...

SPOT PRICE 33.93

All Silver Products Range from $35.6 to $40 per oz.

The premiums/markups on retail silver have increased since the smash in May, but the price is still declining along with spot price. There is still not a clear separation of paper vs physical as yet in the retail market.

Does anyone have any new data on the wholesale premiums for dealers? It will be interesting to see if the physical price arrests it's decline as the SPOT price continues to decline this week. If that happens in the broad market, it would seem to be a nice indicator of the irrelevance of the comex, and the end of the paper manipulation. Until then, take advantage of sites like APMEX, who still lower prices along with SPOT price. When the separation ocurres in earnest at the wholesale level, the sites that continue to track SPOT for price will quickly run out of inventory.

GOT PHYSICAL ???

securi_D
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Hat tip

Hat tip to you on this post. Although this is for SLV (and I agree with tmos on this, EVENTUALLY paper silver will go to goose egg), it still pretty much reflects the price of silver as of late. I think we will test the 200DMA of around $30. Even with the run up in the market today, Silver and Gold seem to be struggling.

But once (if) we see the $30's and below, I have some powder eagerly waiting to buy some sweet physical. Belieeeeeeeeee dat.

_D

ghost
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I am still thinking there

I am still thinking there will be a bounce up to around 35-35.5 once the Greece plan gets passed.  Then down to 30, maybe 28-29 for the month of July.

tmosley
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That would be nice if it

That would be nice if it could hold for the whole month, as I have to wait until the first of August to buy more.  If I could buy it below a 30-handle, that would be AMAZING.

I doubt it though.  Despite the fall in spot price, the only silver I can find for less than $35 is a huge amount (200+ oz) of random shit/scratch and dent from APMEX, and their 24 hours sale on 1 oz bars.

atlee
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Greece and silver

Greece has nothing to do with sagging pm prices. And if it did, you would want to see negative things coming out of Greece not positive, You would want flight to safety and uncertainty. So a positive vote in Greece wont help you tomorrow. Besides, it is a done deal and already priced in the mkt. If it happens non event. If it doesn't, big event.

The problem with metal prices is 2 things. Risk off mentality and no official announcement of further QE. Doesnt matter that we all know there will be more. There isnt more until they say there is. Period.

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December 2011

I see a lot of people piling into the December silver contract already by volume. Maybe this is normal but it seems a little early to be going that long. Perhaps there are players with inside info doing that contract now?

Im thinking of buying a Jan 2012 1000 oz contract, but selling it in Dec. Volume is way lower there. What do you folks think? Wait for $28?

I'm probably just trying to talk myself out of being flat. 

Also what do we look at for trendline now that 200 dma has been broken? 300 dma? 365 dma?

silverbleve
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I was a stomachlobber

But now I'm a digger? (testing the 100 post mark)

Old Major
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Agree with atlee

Agree with atlee about why the prices are dropping.  If Turd's right and gold goes to $1450, I wouldn't be surprised to see silver go back to a 50 to 1 ratio which would be $29. 

If silver had a bigger correction due to a market crash and we saw the ratio go back closer to 60 to 1, which would still only put silver at $24 (people won't run from gold this time, so I don't think it'll fall as hard in a market crash).  A crash would guarantee QE3 and new highs for silver soon after. 

I hope we're lucky enough to buy between $24 and $29 sometime before Sept.

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Think about what that price

Think about what that price means for those who have to source silver to meet contractual obligations.

Lower price decreases supply.  What will happen to the COMEX if silver is less than $30?  

Probably the same thing that is happening now, only harder, and faster, and with many, MANY more people standing for delivery, as they can't get it in volume anywhere else.

securi_D
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S.Bleve wrote: Also what do

S.Bleve wrote:

Also what do we look at for trendline now that 200 dma has been broken?

The 200DMA is about $30 and some change, no?

Old Major
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A beautiful thing

Good point tmosley.  It’ll be a beautiful thing.  Could be a perfect storm brewing for the second half of this year…. COMEX announces it has no physical silver for delivery & can only settle contracts in cash AND the Fed announces QE3.

Warren Peace
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Perfect storm

Old Major wrote:

Good point tmosley.  It’ll be a beautiful thing.  Could be a perfect storm brewing for the second half of this year…. COMEX announces it has no physical silver for delivery & can only settle contracts in cash AND the Fed announces QE3.

....and Greece drops out of the euro... and Italy seeks a bailout..... and Spain gets downgraded.... and the French/German banks become insolvent....... and more riots in Greece, Britain, Spain, California, and Syria...... and huge numbers of municipalities go bust.... and food riots begin anew worldwide.... and a large earthquake rocks the west coast..... and pensions everywhere cannot make full distributions... and real US unemployment remains entrenched above 20%..... and food grains spike again due to weather.... and US housing shouldn't be able to, but does get worse... and, well you get the picture.

silverwood
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Praying for a buy op in the mid 20s

I sold SOME into the April spike and would be a buyer back somewhere in the mid twenties. But I'm sure I am not alone in that thinking. So Maybe, I should deploy some capital  starting around 30, then scale into a falling price, increasing position buys. My fear is the boyz know there are many waiting like me. All I can hope is one of them falls asleep at the wheel and the algorithm drives silver down to lower 20s. Hello! I would like to lock in now, what you want for the SAE boxes?

BASEBALL 13
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SILVER & The Greek Bailout

..and another reason Silver is heading lower...

Prime Minister George Papandreou begged lawmakers Monday night to back his plans to slice 28.6 billion euros from government spending by 2015, and sell off the national silver to meet EU and IMF demands for reform.

http://www.france24.com/en/20110628-greece-braces-grounding-general-strike-unions-parliament-austerity-measures

Warren Peace
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BASEBALL 13 wrote: ..and

BASEBALL 13 wrote:

..and another reason Silver is heading lower...

Prime Minister George Papandreou begged lawmakers Monday night to back his plans to slice 28.6 billion euros from government spending by 2015, and sell off the national silver to meet EU and IMF demands for reform.

http://www.france24.com/en/20110628-greece-braces-grounding-general-strike-unions-parliament-austerity-measures

No worries mate..... Chinese, and Indian buyers on standby. Their national silver is probably encumbered, and long gone anyway. All Papa will find in the national vault is the infamous IOU.

Old Major
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BASEBALL 13 wrote: ..and

BASEBALL 13 wrote:

..and another reason Silver is heading lower...

Prime Minister George Papandreou begged lawmakers Monday night to back his plans to slice 28.6 billion euros from government spending by 2015, and sell off the national silver to meet EU and IMF demands for reform.

http://www.france24.com/en/20110628-greece-braces-grounding-general-strike-unions-parliament-austerity-measures

I wonder how many oz/tons of silver Greece has.   Not worried about Greece selling its silver, but I do hope it gives us all a chance to buy more at cheaper prices.  As everyone on this site knows, time and the supply and demand fundamentals are on our side.  Roughly 9 times more silver is mined every year than gold and about half of that goes to industrial use (http://www.usdebtclock.org/gold-precious-metals.html).   Buy and hold until the ponzi scheme comes to an end.

Vypuero
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as said in the other thread

It is not literal silver - it is a euphemism for selling Greek National Assets

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tmosley wrote: That would be

tmosley wrote:

That would be nice if it could hold for the whole month, as I have to wait until the first of August to buy more.  If I could buy it below a 30-handle, that would be AMAZING.

I doubt it though.  Despite the fall in spot price, the only silver I can find for less than $35 is a huge amount (200+ oz) of random shit/scratch and dent from APMEX, and their 24 hours sale on 1 oz bars.

I've been in the same boat now for almost 6 months. My solution was to get no interest credit cards. I'm surprised so many in here dismissed me in that thread. In my case, I've been able to accelerate my silver purchases 12 months in advance. My most recent purchases were at  spots of 34.40, 34.20 and 33.75. I'm not so much trying to game the price as much as I'm trying to get silver in my hands before I can't.

tmosley wrote:

Think about what that price means for those who have to source silver to meet contractual obligations.

Lower price decreases supply.  What will happen to the COMEX if silver is less than $30?  

Probably the same thing that is happening now, only harder, and faster, and with many, MANY more people standing for delivery, as they can't get it in volume anywhere else.

Yes, I've been thinking the same thing. These 35-29 prices will be very difficult to pass up for larger players and too compelling for physical buyers. They won't want ANYONE to lock in prices down there and have a chance to stand. Seems it's too risky for the manipulators. If I'm right, we've already seen the summer bottom.

See, I'm Concerned Silver Will Be GONE!

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