Now FED is owned by biggest central banks, it means the elites. Are they taking the big loss here?
Depends who runs the government..OR- that could be the cheapest way out, allowing to make money elsewhere (interest rates) as inflation will increase.
Ivar's Charts
November 8, 2011 - 4:42pm
#63
@Maradona-depends on a president
November 8, 2011 - 4:46pm
#64
@redwood-excellent video-THANK YOU!
Superb minus some pressed on selling points. I especially disagree about silver. When he talks about crashing of bubbles everywhere and in fact, deflation and recession all over the world, and then suddenly -silver is scarce. 74% of silver is of industrial use. If there is recession, it will be not so scarce, at least not until 2018. Gold going quite fast I agree with. There is logic in his explanation and monetary value of gold is what it has. And I have it in my charts, too.
And Maloney also sees deflation first, as I do. Nice that at least someone agrees. Deflation would not necessary mean lower PM prices, it will just slightly stabilize it. The USA and other behavior on their debts will decide the value of PMs in next year.
November 9, 2011 - 2:15pm
#65
Gold price prediction chart 2012-2017 - slightly corrected scale
Due to my "professional" charting programs and skills I had squeezed too much the scale of price above 6000 USD in the original Gold prediction chart. I also cleaned out permanent deflation since deflation/inflation cycles will be interchanging in a manner I will try to add to the chart later. The most interesting thing STILL is non-intented but obvious VERY strong correlation go gold price with coming election cycles.
The correction of scale is not big, but now the peak is at level 11300 USD rather than 12300USD-so here is the new chart.
November 9, 2011 - 2:28pm
#66
Gold bubble crash in October-November 2016
Here is a chart that approximates my Gold prices 2012-2017 prediction chart with log-periodic function , critical (crash point) time being October 2016-again, correlating with the new president. So a question arises-what can markets expect from new president in 2017 that will crash the gold bubble that has lasted from early nineties? The value at the crash is difficult to predict as things move very fast-but i would say 11300+- 1500 USD is the maximum Gold will reach.
At that point, from other charts, DOW/Gold ratio will be 1,1 http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/82441#comment-82441and Gold Silver ratio 40:1http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/78041#comment-78041
The amount of crash varies, but usually after such long steep bubble formation the price can drop 20% initially and then slower, however, if it is really the end of gold bubble, its price will return to status cheap gold expensive Dow again.
November 9, 2011 - 5:47pm
#67
Ivars thank you for your
Ivars thank you for your charts. I'm wondering how the miners will fair in a situation where you are right. Let's say you are right about silver reaching $75 in a year but at the same time markets tnking. what will happen with silver miners in such a situation? They are very coupled to the general market at the moment but I have a hard time seeing that continuing when they will be making huge profits. Any comments on this would be greatly appreciated.
November 9, 2011 - 10:35pm
#68
RRJJ wrote:Ivars thank you
Ivars thank you for your charts. I'm wondering how the miners will fair in a situation where you are right. Let's say you are right about silver reaching $75 in a year but at the same time markets tnking. what will happen with silver miners in such a situation? They are very coupled to the general market at the moment but I have a hard time seeing that continuing when they will be making huge profits. Any comments on this would be greatly appreciated.
Let me take a stab at it. This MF Global thing is the leading edge of a shift in thinking about where your money is "safe".
Once the real PM mania starts it will be because it's the last perceived safe store of value. Anything PM related will rise with that tide, including the miners. Once the miners start tearing upwards many will outdo PM appreciation.
My local coin guy was there in the 70's and said he had to hire security guards to control the lines of people entering his store both to buy & sell. That's a mania, a bubble. There's going to be another one, Ivars 1 year prediction may be at the start of it.
Thanks mods for cleaning up this thread & allowing this guy some room to discuss PM's without being trolled.
November 10, 2011 - 2:14am
#69
Dollar Index
I have no idea where your analysis comes from. maybe you can point out some web address when I can read more.
why do you think the dollar index will go up so strongly in the immediate future.
November 10, 2011 - 2:18am
#70
-but i would say 11300+- 1500
-but i would say 11300+- 1500 USD is the maximum Gold will reach.
looks like a typo do you mean $15,000. per ounce.
November 10, 2011 - 2:21am
#71
Ivars gold chart bubble
I remember Martin Armstrong wrote something similar in one of his letters. He said 2016 was going to be a tipping point on gold price, where price will reach a maximum of certain stage to then retrace a bit and stay lower-flat correction for some years: something between 5 to 10 years. But then, the bull market will resume since government won't offer real solutions to the sovereign debt. The world will certainly be in a much worse position starting 2020. Also, Armstrong mentioned that the real crisis (real crisis where everything we know as a financial world today will be collapsing and we may see war as a result) will start by the beginning of next decade. So, yes, Ivars prediction for next year can perfectly be just the beginning of the mania phase. And if we see some Iran situation during this decade it may be just the beginning.
November 10, 2011 - 4:31am
#72
Very rough prediction on M3-monetary basis
Based on this very rough graph I copied from Mike Maloney's VIDEO ( I have no access to more exact series)-by the way, a very recommended video:
This chart obviously has bubble shape and a crash starting in September 2008. So I used the scarce points to the right of this date where again, a characteristic antibubble shape may be seen, to construct a VERY rough prediction of how "M3-Monetary base" might develop in the next year:
This is what I came up with fitting the yellow dots to the log-periodic unwinding process:
What it says is that M3-monetary base will reach a temporary minimum of about 10,5 trillion ( 1 trillion below the value during Maloney's speech) at the end of 2011-beginning of 2012 i.e. NOW.
What is M3-Monetary base- M3: M2 plus large and long-term deposits, institutional money market funds, short-term repurchase and other larger liquid assets. Large and long term deposits are the source of corresponding credit. So the Large and long term credit is crashing with oscillations, and the coming crash is quite substantial - the reduction of M3-Monetary base by 1,5 trillion during 2011= reduction by 12,5%.
M2 itself is also starting to stall:
All in all, looks like end of 2011-beginning of 2012 will be deflationary for many reasons mentioned earlier in other posts. There is a momentum towards it in the USA.
November 10, 2011 - 9:33am
#73
Ivars,
Thank you once again
Ivars,
Thank you once again for these clear graphs accompanied by clear explanations. There seems to be some consensus that while the general trend will be deflationary, that many core daily requirements will continue to be inflationary. That is, items that include food, utility costs, while other sectors will continue to experience deflationary pressures, eg. real estate, auto industry and many discretionary purchases (luxury items). People in the US and Canada continue to see their daily costs exceed any compensatory rise in wages. So this may be the basis of some disagreement with your deflationary projections. I'm not disagreeing with you, quite the contrary, but the picture may be somewhat more differentiated along these lines.
November 10, 2011 - 3:52pm
#74
@redwood inflation
People in the US and Canada continue to see their daily costs exceed any compensatory rise in wages. So this may be the basis of some disagreement with your deflationary projections. I'm not disagreeing with you, quite the contrary, but the picture may be somewhat more differentiated along these lines.
I have no doubt about it. We have inflation 4,5% in Latvia, and we feel it, especially food, energy. gasoline, health care. Also, I am not talking about NOW, but Q1 2012 . The deflation should start with inputs in the process, like imports of goods or prices of commodities in the USD, both imported and local . There was already a 0,2$ dip in October import prices ( less gasoline--0,6% with gasoline). Then it will pass over to consumers once they start hoarding cash (because of uncertainty all around ) and shops start fighting each other. I think coming Christmas season will be a good indication of how deep into savings consumers are ready to dip end of 2011. If its less than usual, then the trend may continue sharply into January, as who needs to buy anything in January anyway (at least in the Northern states).
November 10, 2011 - 3:57pm
#75
@sockeye
I have no idea where your analysis comes from. maybe you can point out some web address when I can read more.
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&start=0
why do you think the dollar index will go up so strongly in the immediate future.
Because other currencies will suffer more from bad news and USD as a reserve currency will be artificially propped up both as safe haven and as reserve currency that sits on most of the world money institution balance sheets. USD buying will continue long after it will be supported by the USA economy or the default risk.
November 10, 2011 - 4:05pm
#76
@RRJJ miners
I can only say from my charts:
1) if silver/gold prices are stable for next 6 months while stock market sinks, miners will sink as well
2) once they have gone down, before coming silver/gold mania, they would be cheaper than now, say 20-30%? (that is minimum what I expect DJIA to drop till next June).
3) buying them before gold/silver prices go up would be a good thing, since of course, if gold/silver starts it next move up ( from my charts, again, silver in May 2012, gold in October 2012), miners stocks will skyrocket:
November 10, 2011 - 5:34pm
#77
Question
How can I keep "recent blog posts", "hat tips", etc. from covering up the right side of the charts, at the top of each page? Thanks, DS
November 10, 2011 - 10:14pm
#78
Sockeye wrote:I have no idea
I have no idea where your analysis comes from. maybe you can point out some web address when I can read more.
why do you think the dollar index will go up so strongly in the immediate future.
I hope you are joking. You don't need web addresses, just look around what others countries are doing:
1. Switzerland intervened the franc couple weeks ago= Dollar up
2. Euro on the brick of collapse= Dollar Up
3. Japan intervened the Yen= Dollar up, etc...
If these kind of actions continue and will, among other reasons, expect dollar up. And it doesn't necessarily means metals and other commodities will drop.
November 10, 2011 - 10:15pm
#79
Clever video
November 11, 2011 - 8:43am
#80
Just Bookmarking. . .
this thread.
November 11, 2011 - 8:49am
#81
Thanks for that reply Ivars.
Thanks for that reply Ivars. A lot of people are talking about a deflationary period. I think I will hedge my portfolio with some Dow shorts.
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Ivars wrote:I do not think China or anyone else then FED will be directly affected.
I meant, the USA will not default on Chinas owned debt directly. By defaulting on FED in late 2012 , about 2-3 trillion, the USD may devaluate in the range up to 10-15%, and that of course will affect China. Indirectly, and as a result of one time action ( which may be repeated and become regular again if FED continues to lend to the USA government after that-why not?)
Every time, once a year, e.g 10-15% of USD value is destroyed.