The "wynter_benton" topic

I am probably wrong, but I'd be glad if someone can enlighten me:

Doesn't the fact that the net short position of Commercial is at the lowest mean that they have precisely the opportunity to increase that net short position hugely up to all-time record highs?

Good point, the short position is lower, but the total commercial short position is still 385,000,000 ozs of silver, much of which is believed to be naked.  They could add shorts........but they also know they might get run over.  Google the term commercial failure signal..........this almost happened in April.  The more important issue is that there is a low number of spec longs, and since margins increased they are believed to be strong holders, ie won't dump their position when the price drops 2-3 dollars.  Hence, if a bunch of new longs pile in here - commercials are more apt to cover at this point and wait until the weak small long specs are sucked in as last April - and use them to cause another waterfall drop at higher prices.

By the way, where do you read Ted Butler, silverseek or at his subscription site?

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Anyway, I think that a final smashdown before the official announcement of OperationTwist2/QEwhatever is something possible and actually makes quite a lot of sense applying some empathy. Anyone else finds it logical or is it completely absurd?

I think they will "try" to give it one more smashdown as well but fail, there are just way too many bullish factors this time of year and OI is low predicting a near term bottom.

Ed Steer's Daily Gold and Silver often has snippets from Ted Butlers newsletter, otherwise you have to pay for it:

http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/home

I think you hit the nail on the head Zoltan.  It's been a controlled retreat since last August (2010), and sometimes a panicked retreat like in April.  There still is a huge amount of outstanding naked shorts,  and a few dollars higher and all of them will be underwater (though I realize some are legitimate hedging by refiners, jewlers etc), another short squeeze, like QE3, is not a matter of if but when.

The only way to verifiy Wynter Benton is legit is to verify the existence of the OTC derivatives. There is no clearing house for OTC derivatives but some derivatives contracts are registered in the DTCC (Depository Trust and Clearinng Corporation). The DTCC data warehouse is only available to regulators (SEC) and probably to some dealer banks. If the derivative contract is not registered there then the only way to verify its existence is to know the other party to the contract. Who is the counter party? Typically, dealer banks create derivative contracts for hedge funds that use them as their primary dealer. This is similar to how John Paulson created derivative contracts with Goldman Sachs. He used Goldman because Goldman was his primary dealer that provided financial services to his hedge fund. We can be pretty certain that the other party "banks" at JPM. Do any turdites have a guess who is the party that owns the derivatives with clauses tied to the silver price? Or any other ideas how to verify the derivatives exist?

If any turdites don't want to communicate online - please PM me.

Verifying these claims is of utmost importance. Because if they are true we can trade with confidence. I've read all the WB posts and comments and crunched the numbers. I actually think WB is legit. Unfortunately, I fully admit that I could be getting played.

Here are my planned trades.
1) Buy call options Oct-Dec on EXK, PAAS, NGD. SVM options are too expensive for me. Two to three times Black scholes valuations so I'll stick with other miners.
2) Buy put options JPM Oct-Jan. Looking at insider selling is a great way to time this bet, thanks!
3) Invest with the hedge fund that owns the derivatives that will payout. Have to do this quickly because it could happen mid October.

As far as tactics goes, Im a total novice. I'll probably buy equal amounts of options over the months listed above and roll over each month until end of Jan and then liquidate all the positions. I'm only using my speculative money for these trades.

I love this site and all the interesting and valuable information. I even like the Friday night video posts. Cheers!

silver foil hat

Thanks for keeping us all updated! 

After you develop your (conspiracy) theory, you have to construct your proofs to prove it as is being done on this WB forum.  The increased frequency with which WB is now posting is intriguing and noteworthy in and of itself.  There is a reason for the increased frequency but what?  Simply enjoying the taunting as "Revenge is a dish best served cold" and WB is now enjoying the dish daily ..... excitement at a plan reaching its conclusion and wanting to make sure others are on board? 

The posts have also grown notably more detailed.   Why?  The easy answer would be to help others understand but why help others at all?  What part do we "others" play in this drama?  Because if we do not play a part, then there is no reason to help us.  Right?  So, my ultimate question is this -- What part are you, me and all the "others" playing in this drama? 

These are the things I like to think about. 

TruBlu

I think the endgame must be near as WB has given a short time frame in which specific objectives will be met.   We will all know shortly.  It is really interesting and I think September will be a huge month too, starting tonight ..... the asians have been holding back and strategically picking up the PMs at good prices but I'm sure they see the window closing after today's action in Europe in particular.