Bag Of Gold's Penny Stock Arcade & Emporium...

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BagOfGold
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thedukes...

thedukes wrote:

First of all between the TF Metals site and the Kitco site the work that the two of you have provided is really outstanding. The combination of the recognition of the drill results and geology by Bag of gold and the technical analysis and financial overview by Mrgneiss really stand out compared to other newsletter services.

My specific question relates back to 2008 during the financial crisis. It appears we are close to a repeat of another financial crisis within the next few months. Were the two of you working together during the 2008 crisis? Did you do any back testing of the pennies going into the crash and coming out of the crash? I would appreciate any feedback you have with your portfolio's during that timeframe.

Remembering 2008 very well I have been accumulating cash in anticipation of another major market sell off that takes everything down with it and then applying it when the timing and risk is appropriate. That being said the entry points from a TA standpoint are about as good as you can get with several of your recommendations. I understand the tranche method of scaling in but should one wait for more overall market confirmations before taking initial positions if another 2008 is looming?

Once again your service to all of us is greatly appreciated.

The Penny Stock Arcade & Emporium's conception was Oct 13/2010!...mrgneiss & I started working together last summer!...mrgneiss keeps me in line...as sometimes I can become "BOG Gone Wild"!...I remember the 2008 crash very well...& I am a survivor!...It is important not to panic when stressful moments occur!...Keeping your emotions in check...is easier said than done!...I rode the 2008 crash out...recouped all of my money & then some!...The most important aspect with investing...is to always do your own research...& never make any decisions to invest...based on what others say!...When you have done your research...you don't tend to panic...& sell out at a loss!...Nobody knows when or if a crash will occur!...It is most important to protect yourself!...Fortunately...there are many strategies out there to accomplish this...which I am sure you are aware of!...mrgneiss is the one who is more adept...when it comes to TA...as I rarely look at charts!...However...I do like "bi-polar" trading!...Most of the time I have 2 sell & 2 buy orders in for each stock (GTC)...this is only for my trading account...& with my core accounts...I sell 1/2 the shares when they double...& buy another stock!...I am sure mrgneiss will chime in...& answer your questions too!!!...

Thank You So Much...& Welcome On Board!!!...

Bag Of Gold

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metcoalfan
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Will history repeat or will it rhyme

That is definitely one of the big questions that has been on my mind the past year.  Would love to hear the opinion of BOG and Mr. Gneiss.  In the interim, I'll share my own.  It was right in late '08 that I started paying attention, and I was really shocked by the valuations that came about across the mining complex, enough to ditch my old niche and go all in up here in Canada, first in coal, by absolute fluke, and then increasingly toward gold and silver.  '08 was a banking crisis, not a sovereign crisis (even though the sovereigns were well on their way).  Having absorbed the excesses of the banks, this time around the banks will again be the trigger in all likelihood, but it will be a sovereign crisis.  I try as often as possible to think back to late '08 and the general gist of the conversations that were being had, on places like Stockhouse, Facebook, and in the various analyst essays.  What was not talked questioned then, except on the fringe, has moved very much toward the mainstream.  I think folks like myself may be representative - going into '08 I had never thought twice about gold, I had never seriously questioned sovereign solvency, I don't think I had ever really questioned fiat money in the abstract.  I firmly believe everyone over the last 3 years has moved to a different place on the continuum - all in the same direction.  Some may have moved faster, some who were far along may have merely become more confident in the beliefs they already had, but precious few have stayed in place in terms of awareness (I'm ignoring my FB friends who still seem only concerned with Snooky, but they didn't impact the market then and they won't this time either - though I'd suggest even they are at least slightly less confident in the status quo now than they were then.)  My perspective as a convert, having mostly met recent converts as opposed to 10+ year old bugs over the past couple of years, is that the frame of reference is going to be slightly different this time around, and perhaps for a critical mass of folks with money to protect.   Ultimately, its a crystal ball question and will likely be a binary outcome, gold is either going to be widely and finally accepted as money or it isn't.   I think we are all getting close to the point where we have to bet one way or the other. 

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Wow, I just spent half an

Wow, I just spent half an hour writing a response to thedukes and metcoalfan and lost it!  Pissed off!  I'll come back later and write it again when my laptop is out of danger of free flight.

Quick response -

1. Policy makers always choose inflation.

2.  Buy OTM puts in SLV a couple months out to hedge your positions.

I use the seasonal silver chart - it mirrors what is happening to the penny stocks fairly well.  Also, Gene Arensberg the the Got Gold Report does some good analysis on the Canadian Venture Exchange mining sector, here is one of the last articles he did comparing the 2008 Venture Exchange to now:

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/07/cdnx-not-all-that-ominous-yet-.html

http://seasonalcharts.com/classics_silber.html

http://www.spectrumcommodities.com/education/commodity/charts/si.html

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Link to our updated penny stock list: https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=68585
"The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the [public] is an important element in democratic society." Those who control this have the real power.

thedukes
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Thanks for your responses

On one hand I see the majors that are in the cash building mode waiting for the opportune time to make the next acquisition and I see Jim Sinclair saying 1764 starts the 3rd and final phase of this great bull market. I see 1764 holding and closing above for three consecutive days indicating a confirmation to the start. He also is starting to preach about a time to start considering precious metals equities once again.

I then look back to 2008 and remember a freezing up of the credit markets and the pummeling of most equities and especially those with the need to raise cash in the not to distant future. 2011 looks worse than 2008.

At what point do the banks start acting like the gold companies of the 80's and 90's and the gold companies start acting like the banks of the 80's and 90's specifically related to consolidation and mergers and acquisition activities? When that time comes the pennies that you guys are researching will have the greatest upside potential of them all.

metcoalfan
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The freezing of the credit markets

It's a big concern of mine, and a reason I like a big chunk of my gold shares to have production.  I'm already hearing from a friend who sells used mining equipment in Africa that their customers are having a much harder time closing deals in recent months because the banks are being very pissy with the cash payment (more out of worry of dealing with each other and not to do with the buyer or vender - which is reminiscent of late '08.  At the time, I was mostly following met coal, hence the name, and there were miners in Canada with their coal in ships and they were ready to sell, and buyers in Korea/China/Japan who wanted the coal at the contracted price - but they used different banks, and the seller wasn't letting the boat sail without a LOC guarantee, and the buyer had the cash - but neither side had banks that trusted each other enough to apply the required grease to the wheels of commerce).  I for one hope that can be postponed as long as possible, I've given up on indefinitely, because which each passing day Gold, and Silver to a lesser extent, are reasserting their 5000 year old legacy in the hearts and minds of ever more people.  If it had crashed a year ago, I'd guess it would have been a repeat of 08 for the miners - a year from now, I'd lose a lot less sleep - tomorrow?  I'll cross my fingers and but won't secondguess.  Kills me too, cause I hate rooting for these corrupt banks to get through the day, but for now I'm pleased they do.   The Neo types like Turd and Tyler and Jim and Rickards et al need to free a few more minds.   

thedukes
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metcoalfan

It is a very valid concern.

Couple of things I used to follow and trade Cline, Western and Grand Cache up until last year and then departed for strictly precious metals oils, and agriculture. What is your thoughts on metcoal today?

The one major thing I have taken from the due diligence part of the BOG, MR.G portfolio of companies is to examine and compare working capital or free cash to my other juniors/ microcap holdings. If we have a credit event the majority of their picks have enough on hand to weather a potential prolong storm out. I have had to rethink several of my smaller companies recently wondering if another credit crunch brings some of my non BOG picks to their knees.

Another thing I am rethinking is what are the politically stable and secure areas of the world to commit money into the precious metals sector.

Like you metcoalfan most of my core picks are in the producers/ soon to be producers. Most of the producers of the world can't grow unless they find new deposits on their own or make acquisitions. If history repeats the juniors and microcaps will targeted in the 3rd phase of this bull market and will have the greatest potential of exponential gains compared to probably any sector out there. They will blow the producers away by a large margin. The producers advantage will be the incredible dividend opportunities that lie ahead as the precious metals prices go much higher.

The free markets allowed an incredible ride for high tech companies in the 90's. A manipulated suppressed precious metals market once released will make the 90's tech run look like childs play.

metcoalfan
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metcoal

met coal is black gold, but it's very much priced at the margin, with potential volatility swings that can quickly bring it below production costs for many (and totally at mercy of Asian economies), plus transportation bottlenecks everywhere and not much of a spot market.   Makes it hairy, and I don't so much like hairy lately, especially when priced seemingly priced to perfection above 300/ton.   Cline is interesting, but in my mind more for the opportunities that rail line into their wilderness might open up.  Western and GC were stellar from lows in Nov/Dec 08, especially buying with US dollar close to .70/CAD back in the good ole days. 

I agree completely that the real gains will be amongst the nano's and micros, so I try to look for my prospects under 100mm and preferably under 50 mm market cap, though I'm starting to make mental notes on those between 100 and 300 mm.  Big producers are cheap too, but I'd bet dollars to donuts a solid 50 cent per share miner can run to 10 in a mania way before Barrick hits 1,000, maybe 5x quicker if all her fundamentals are solid to start. 

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Colombia Crest Gold Corp...

Has been added to the list!...It is highly speculative & not for the "faint of heart"...as this penny explorer has a property in Bolivia!...However...I would suggest that this Bolivian property be disregarded...& the main focus should be on their Colombian properties!...They are in "elephant country"...where major gold finds have been discovered...& I have these "warm & fuzzy" feelings that Colombia Crest...may equal...or possibly outdo the Malbex discovery in Argentina!...The management is very accomplished...& have made major discoveries in the past...are cashed up with $5 million...no debt...believe there may be 13 million ounces of gold on their Colombian properties...& the market cap is only $18.3 million!...What more can I say?...Go take a peek on their website...& you will see for yourself!!!...

http://www.colombiacrestgold.com/

Let me add..."the list" has been updated too!!!...

Bag Of Gold

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BagOfGold
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ScottJ...

Thanks for updating "the list"...& most of all...Thank You for your contributions...making this world a better place to live!!!... 

Bag Of Gold

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ScottJ
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Thanks BOG.  May each of us

Thanks BOG.  May each of us turn our intention on wisdom and awareness to the world, one another, and penny stocks!

I must admit, I have not looked at *the list* in a while, nor followed this thread.  I have no idea why not (as I have plenty of time), maybe it is psychological resistance... in which I think I know something in which I did not before, but that seems foolish when I am not giving ample time to something in which has taught me so well.  And to be honest, I had much better returns when I invested in "the list" instead of my current returns on some of my interesting stock choices as of late (then again last fall was nice to everyone!). 

With all that said... this may be the time for these little guys to finally have some stellar days!

What are your favorites, Malbex and Alto?  I know you must like all on the list, but which is your favorite story (I will go back and read through but curious to know for now!)

-

Scott

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ScottJ...

I really do like all of my pennies...However...a few of my "extra special" favourites are Xtierra...Malbex...Bayfield Ventures...Tradewinds...Stroud...Oremex...& now Colombia Crest Gold!...Okay...what the heck...they are all my favourites!...Decisions!...Decisions!!!...

Bag Of Gold

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BagOfGold
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Here is some "food for thought"!!!...
One of our "most colourful" members posted this over on the Kitco thread...& it is worthy of posting here too...just in case anyone may have missed it!!!...
 
Originally Posted by ILUVPMs View Post
VERY INTERESTING

today i was walking home around 745pm after having dropped my lady off to meet a few of her friends. WHile walking home I decided to pick up a pizza at the local grocery store (METRO) since it was a wednesday special. On my way there i overhead this lady, who was dressed in business attire, talk on her phone with someone else regarding physical shortages, fundamentals being good, and a recession may take it down a little bit. YUP... she was talking about my fav little substance called silver! Seems institutional money is flowing into this metal and they are very bullish about it. MY POINT: we are definitely in teh second phase of this bull run and the third mania phase will be here in the near future... DO NOT FRET ABOUT THE STOCKS THEY WILL GO UP as well!!!!

My response to ILUVPMs...

A great observation!...Let me add...it has been very quiet here..."summer doldrums"...& low volume!...However...very soon...this thread will get very busy...& once again many folks will be flocking here!...Our pennies will be higher than they are now...& many folks will be chasing them...when they are at all time highs!...The 52 week highs are listed on our pennies for a very good reason!...At a glance...everyone will be able to determine whether they are buying in at a high or low price!...Right now...our pennies are at all time 52 week lows for the year!...NOW...is indeed the ideal time to buy...a bit at a time!...Buy low & sell high...NOW...or forever hold your peace...as this window of opportunity is soon coming to a close!!!...

I only want everyone to profit!!!...

Bag Of Gold

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BagOfGold
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Colombia Crest Gold Corp...

Folks...keep in mind...they are waiting for the granting of mineral title and drill permitting of their properties in Colombia...which is affecting all exploration companies in Colombia!...

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/colombia-crest-gold-announces-up...

I suggest that folks buy a little bit now...a little bit more on any dips...& then put the shares away until the permitting is completed!...The Colombian properties are the best...& I have this "warm & fuzzy" feeling...management & drill results...will not disappoint!!!...

Bag Of Gold

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SneakyFrenchSpy
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Thanks for your work Bag of

Thanks for your work Bag of Gold and others. Can you please tell me how you feel about Oroco Resources OCO.V ? The newsletter I subscribe to has it as a sell right now as it seems the stock broke strong support @ .28 and it may trend down from there. However, its flagship Cerro Prieto project in Mexico is one you may want to keep an eye on for the 12-24 months timeframe.

BagOfGold
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SneakyFrenchSpy...

SneakyFrenchSpy wrote:

Thanks for your work Bag of Gold and others. Can you please tell me how you feel about Oroco Resources OCO.V ? The newsletter I subscribe to has it as a sell right now as it seems the stock broke strong support @ .28 and it may trend down from there. However, its flagship Cerro Prieto project in Mexico is one you may want to keep an eye on for the 12-24 months timeframe.

Although the resources are small...they are soon going to be producing...& will use these profits to expand the resources!...I find this favourable...to diluting shareholders!...They have the money now...from their recent PP to go ahead with construction of the mine!...Who is to say...a small mine...can't get bigger?... If you like the company...why sell?...Perhaps just hold your shares...or average down & buy more on the dips!...However...I do see greater upside for Xtierra...Oremex...& Stroud (they have higher silver/gold grades)...if Mexico is where you want to be!!!...

Do what is best for you!...Listen to nobody...do your own research...& invest accordingly!!!...

Bag Of Gold

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mrgneiss
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Just found a great

Just found a great prospecting/geology website - at first glance it looks really interesting, if you are interested in learning more about such topics.......enjoy:

http://goldminingandprospecting.blogspot.com/

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Link to our updated penny stock list: https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=68585
"The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the [public] is an important element in democratic society." Those who control this have the real power.

Fired
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MrG!

Glad you and BoG can still be found here! Any thoughts on NDR and it's recent 3c fall or is it all just summer games in the market?

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Fired wrote:Glad you and BoG

Fired wrote:
Glad you and BoG can still be found here! Any thoughts on NDR and it's recent 3c fall or is it all just summer games in the market?

Hey Fired, yes, I'm on an all-expense paid week-long holiday from Kitco.  But I shall return!  I just checked NDR's website and stockhouse blog and can't see any new news nor any reason for the drop.  Probably just the season - but you never know who has inside info about upcoming drill results.  Considering their properties, at $6 million market cap I see very little downside, but I know that's not much comfort if you just lost 20% of the value of your position.

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Link to our updated penny stock list: https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=68585
"The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the [public] is an important element in democratic society." Those who control this have the real power.

Fired
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Mahalo nui loa for the reply

Mahalo nui loa for the reply MrG. I wish I got paid every time I was banned! I'm still accumulating NDR so the drop is an opportunity from my perspective. I could see no reasons either so put it down to "silly season".

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Fired wrote: I wish I got

Fired wrote:
I wish I got paid every time I was banned!

as Henry Ford II was quoted when asked to respond to his critics:

"Fuck 'em. Never complain, never explain."

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