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Rico
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Been layering in the DXJ, on

Been layering in the DXJ, on all this mayhem.  Think we're still Jappy-happy, not Jappy-crappy.  Those motherfuckers are gonna do some really crazy shit, before they're forced to slit their bellies--like buy the Nikkei.  Party on!

pailin
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Nikkei down another 1% so far

Nikkei down another 1% so far tonight. JPY fighting 97 ceiling.

One can only imagine what the next radical step(s!) will be..?

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I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild

Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell

pailin
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Armstrong on Confidence and Hyperinflation

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/06/its-always-a-confidence-game/

I agree, but when your country is a net importer...and your primary export is USD...it's the confidence (in USD) of your trade partners that matters, not the population's. Ultimately you (as a country) have to pay for imports in whatever currency they want. If it's not USD then the downstream is devaluation of (unlimited) USD against whatever (limited) "it" that they do want (gold, oil, natgas, EUR, Yuan, Ruble, etc.) Of course we do have considerable interior natural and labor resources, and declining population growth (useless eaters demand) so if external USD confidence waned we could isolate (again) and become hand-to-mouth producers for ourselves. This is probably the biggest difference between us and Japan post-1991 :)

Actually not a bad organic solution imo. And everybody would have jobs too :) :)

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I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild

Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell

Lord Henry
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wiping the slate clean

Good idea Pailin, but who'd be footing

the bill for the US defence behemoth / or

would you be happy enough to dispense

with it too ?

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pailin
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Well in the potentiality I

Well in the potentiality I described (fully inward-facing economy) there is no offense, only defense. Less guns, less people, maybe more drones? Or are you suggesting we just run around stealing our imports at gunpoint? But maybe the huge military behemoth already IS today's currency of choice (not USD) amongst trading partners? Yes to Saudis, and probably Japan, not so much China.

Understand that here in the States many of us have a less complimentary view of US military staff and equipment -- they generally do not represent our best and brightest, more along the lines of lowest common denominator the inside rig bid and those needing free college tuition, food, housing and/or 20 yr retirement perks :)

Like most libertarian-minded folks...it would be a happy-Pailin-day if our offensive military was dismantled. As for defensive, I'd be happy to just arm myself and leave it at that. Alas Lockheed and the rest wouldn't be down with that.

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I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild

Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell

pailin
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In other news...I need EUR

In other news...I need EUR and YEN to fall against USD, have some invoices due and some anticipated near-term buying coming up priced in those currencies. C'mon...bring back the strong dollar policy :)

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I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild

Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell

pailin
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$21 handle

And we're back :)

Moved my short stop up from $26 to $23...getting too close to turn time to d.ck around :) :)

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I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild

Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell

Rico
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You could set your watch by

PMs:  You could set your watch by this stuff...

ZNGA:  it's had its day--there's nothing there.  People will eventually figure that out about TSLA

csquared13
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Rico wrote: PMs:  You could

Rico wrote:

PMs:  You could set your watch by this stuff...

ZNGA:  it's had its day--there's nothing there.  People will eventually figure that out about TSLA

yep! 

pailin
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silver

Rejection at 22.20 not good.

Old patterns suggest either 10 or 11 am may be the bottom for a daytrade turn.

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I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild

Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell

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Long USD/JPY after long day

It looks like that was very well played, Lord Henry. You might take a peak at SOYB chart which is gapping up a bit this morning and catching occasional high vol buys, thus diverging from the the rest of the commodity complex. ZH described it as the commodities getting monkey-hammered. What a great turn of word, monkey-hammered, as in the following:

Even though the commodity locomotive was monkey-hammered before NY departure time, soybeans were drowned yet another day in the wet spot besotting the fabric of time, boosting price in anticipation of downy leaves moldering with John Brown.

BlackHawk
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@broker22

Hopefully, you are not investing anyone else's money, are you?

Quote:
I think you are wrong on both accounts. Most everybody here is long and strong the metals. The trader types like yourself watching squiggly lines and such are the ones going to be left behind. Just my opinion.

It might not be such a bad idea to take a look at some squiggly lines and maybe read pailin's old posts. It's never too late to learn, as long as your mind stays open. That's what we're all trying to do.

rtabit
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Charts

ES 240: Looking for resistance around 1645.  Maybe 1641 on floating parallel in new pink fork, if that happens would give more validation to that fork and signal it is in control, bearish, would be signal of new lows to come, would possibly make me switch my longs back to shorts again, I'm watching this chart closely.

SI Daily: Hitting solid support on the daily.  The only bar to close below this red slope is the first one.

HUI Daily: Hitting possible support on new potential upward fork, bullish if holds, we'd break through resistance and next resistance is pretty far up, just picked up a little NUGT @11.05, stop @10.89.

Strawboss
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In hindsight - I am glad I

In hindsight - I am glad I sold my UVXY calls day before yesterday (I know - I keep vascillating from one extreme to the other)...

ZSL doing nicely.  My AGQ calls are taking a hit but I have til Jan for them to perform and am confident they will.  Looking/hoping for lower prices so I can double up on that position.

My ANV calls are holding up pretty well considering the hit that the share price took today.  Not down much.  Plenty of time on those as well - Dec calls.

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Aaaargh .. the monkeys!!!
Trading metals is like playing frogger...there's always a big truck coming.

csquared13
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good stuff RT. been holding

good stuff RT. been holding DUST since last week..probably close the position unless we see more weakness towards the close, then I may be tempted to take her home for the weekend...we'll see.

so looks like seasonal for ES might be in play here then....funny how on 5/31 it was all "just funds/indexes selling and re-balancing" according to CNBC, yet lower highs and lower lows since then...

rtabit
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csquared13 wrote: so looks

csquared13 wrote:

so looks like seasonal for ES might be in play here then....funny how on 5/31 it was all "just funds/indexes selling and re-balancing" according to CNBC, yet lower highs and lower lows since then...

Yea I'm starting to think wall street is out for summer.  Here is SPY monthly report and one specific for June, June not so hot.  NUGT stopped out, damn miners.

http://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/Default/media/fe8f2131-cb2b-4bd9-8fb9-53e115f63fb9

http://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/Default/media/33b87d76-7ad1-429b-9305-0af904e57e84

Gold Nugget
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rtabit wrote: Garbage?  It's

rtabit wrote:

Garbage?  It's just data, sorry it isn't what you prefer it to be, but it is what it is.  I don't understand the newspapers of 87 crash images in your post, the author clearly states "all hell broke loose on Monday" and that this is data since then.

"It examines large drops on Fridays.  Both the Crash of ’29 and the Crash of ’87 happened on Monday.  The Crash of ’87 is still remembered by many traders that are active today.  There was a strong selloff on Friday and then all hell broke loose on Monday.  But since then strong Friday selloffs have commonly been followed by bounces on Mondays.  Perhaps this is due to the fact that fear of a crash causes what might otherwise be an ordinary selloff to become exaggerated and overdone on Fridays.  Or perhaps it is just that people don’t want to hold over the weekend (and end up paying a premium not to).  Whatever the reason, the tendency to bounce has been very strong."

I have no problems with you or your posting it.   Just as the study is as it is.  so too the crash in 1987 is as it is.  Let everyone know that the Friday before the crash was the first time in history that the market closed down 100 points.  That Friday had many of the characteristics of a crash day.  It closed on the low down 108 points.   Monday was so horrific that people forget about the Friday crash.  

I did not want to see you or anyone here on PTC be hurt by trading such a report if we get a Friday low close.  It can be a prelude to a Monday crash.   Now that everyone is aware of the danger they can go ahead and trade as they choose.  

If I hurt your feelings I am most sorry.  I will be more careful in the future.   I never thought you would take it personally.  My intentions were only to help people not take too much risk without knowing the full truth of friday closing down hard.  

I no longer believe anything that is put out on MSM.  It is all manipulation of the population for the benefit of the rich and powerful  such as JPM GS etc.  I believe this study was put out there to deceive traders into trading wrong.   

The study coming out at this time tells me that  TPTB are nervous that we might have another crash and they need buyers to sell their stuff to.  so get out there and advertise to all that they should be buying so TPTB can sell. 

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rtabit
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Gold Nugget wrote: If I hurt

Gold Nugget wrote:
 

If I hurt your feelings I am most sorry.  

You didn't hurt my feelings you pissed me off, I'm sick of defending TA on this site.

Gold Nugget wrote:
 

I believe this study was put out there to deceive traders into trading wrong.

Deceive traders?  The only person deceiving traders here is you, intentional or not.  What exactly do you base this on, the fact that he thinks the market has a certain possibility of not going in the direction you want it to?  For some reason you are not coming to logical conclusions.  You seem to be close minded, open your mind, educate yourself, learn why you think this way and change it, read this book, it may help.  http://www.amazon.com/How-Know-What-Isnt-Fallibility/dp/0029117062/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1370623594&sr=8-1&keywords=How+We+Know+What+Isn%27t+So%3A+The+Fallibility+of+Human+Reason+in+Everyday+Life

Gold Nugget wrote:
 

The study coming out at this time tells me that  TPTB are nervous that we might have another crash and they need buyers to sell their stuff to.  so get out there and advertise to all that they should be buying so TPTB can sell. 

I have no idea what TPTB means so I can't say if this guy is a TPTB or not.  Lets check this guys history from 2008 and see what statistics he discovered and decided to share. 

Blogger Guy wrote:
 

http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2008/05/sharp-selloff-buying-opportunity.html

The market has taken a beating the last two days. This has served to relieve some of the stretched conditions I noted late last week. Most notably the CBOE put/call ratio and the VIX. (Note that the VIX system I shared Thursday afternoon triggered an exit today – good for a 2.43% gain in 3 days.) So now what? Is this a buying opportunity? Two days ago the market was hitting 4 month highs. The S&P 500 today closed about 3.5% below those highs. Let’s take a look at what has happened in the past when these kinds of sharp selloffs occur near a high:

...

The SPY rose 6 days in a row as of Monday. All six days have been wiped out in the last two. Looking at the 51 other such occurrences where the market has gone from a 50-day closing high to a 8-day closing low in two days, the positive expectancy going forward peaked after 5 days. A couple of weeks later, expectancy was nearly back to flat.
Here we look at a percent drop rather than an 8-day low:
...
Again a brief bounce that quickly peters out. I then combined the two. Only 12 occurrences but results seem notable. In this case the bounce only lasted 3 days and the expectancy beyond that turned quickly negative and stayed negative.
...
I ran some other tests tonight as well. So far I am not seeing anything that would lead me to believe there is a strong chance that the selloff has completely run its course.
 
 
With my beloved Celtics on late tonight I likely won’t have time to post. So here’s a little mid-day study for you.
Since early April the Nasdaq has been a leading index. Net new highs have failed to expand, though. According to my data provider, they peaked at 64 on May 2nd. The last few days there have been significantly more new lows than new highs. If you take the net difference and divide it by the number of stocks trading on the Nasdaq your result for Tuesday and Wednesday was less than -1%. (Wednesday: 53 new highs – 93 new lows = -40 net / 3030 issues = -1.32%). Coming off a 4-month (80 day) high this is an unusual occurrence.
I looked back to 1994 (as far back as I had the data) to see if I could find other times where the Net New High Percentage ratio closed below -1% twice within 3 days of an 80-day high. I found three other dates 7/23/98, 7/20/07, and 11/02/07.   Charts below (click to enlarge):
...
Pretty ugly.
If I allow for two -1% Net New High Pct days within a week (rather than 3 days) of the top then 10/15/99 also shows up.
...
The bulls better hope this time is like 1999.
 
 
...
The way I see it, a failure of the 200 like we saw today appears to lead to weakness in the short-term. The one consistent of the tests is that they all showed a negative expectancy shortly after the event. Longer-term whether the market gets it together like the S&P results suggest or continues to struggle as the Nasdaq results suggest is unclear. Keep in mind that beyond the short-term there are much bigger forces at work than today’s action. I therefore wouldn’t try and extrapolate out too far with this test.
 
The short-term negative does jive with some of my other work and I continue to believe a pullback is likely in the next few days.
[/quote]
 
Last post was May 20, May 19th was the high for 2008.  That high was not taken out until Sep 2012.
 
I don't understand why I have to defend stuff like this, I don't understand why everyone on this site thinks if someone disagrees with what they think they are therefore manipulative shills trying to deceive us so they can profit, I don't understand, what the fuck.
 
 
 
 
Strawboss
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Rtabit - you dont have to

Rtabit - you dont have to defend TA to me - I greatly appreciate your fork work and find it very prescient many times.

__________________

Jesus Christ is the only true hope that any of us really has.
Aaaargh .. the monkeys!!!
Trading metals is like playing frogger...there's always a big truck coming.

Lord Henry
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Hi BH, Mr P & everyone here....

Just to say thanks for keeping on posting. Its great

to have so many friends here to bounce trading ideas

with. Sorry that a lot of my posts are a bit random &

not really particularly useful ...............

Am still of the (fwiw) opinion that JPY is the 'worst' major

currency. I did start shorting it back in November, and

it was by far my best trade since the metals in 2010.

Unfortunately I got a bit careless, and blew a lot of the

proceeds in 'defending' the metals. Wont be making that 

mistake anymore  : ) (actually now find that shorting them can

be quite therapeutic). Lost track now with Soybeans sadly. Lightened

slightly on short Stocks and copper last night, but got stopped 

out on USDJPY / EURJPY - but without too much damage done.

Strange up/down gaming around 1.30 pm here today / 8.30 am

Eastern (?) gave  me some great new entries for USDJPY between

95.50 / 96.50 (at least I'm hoping they're great) so  backed up

the bus. I actually try not to trade my trades (knowing that I'm not

an especially bright trader ) - my intention is to buy and hold

leverage. Great when it works - which is not all that often : (    

(& very rarely if at all in the metals).

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Wake me up at HUI 1200.

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