Maybe "Hampton Pearson at The Labor Department" will shoot me down and make me look foolish (again) but all signs point to a weak NFP tomorrow.
I just thought I would post this before heading out. There continues to be all this market talk about "Fed tapering". We've covered this fallacy ad nauseam so there's no need to do it again, especially when The Pig is telling you all you need to know.
First, here's a daily chart of the POSX. If The Bernank was really going to constrict the future supply of dollars by tapering QE, the POSX should be rallying simply because nearly every other fiat currency is being rapidly devalued. Ahem...note the action in the POSX since The Bernank spoke to Congress two weeks ago.
But though today's drop was staggering, it doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. Note that on these two longer-term charts, the key level to watch is 80. Admittedly, an horrific NFP tomorrow and we might be there by Monday. But, for now, today was just noise. One bright spot: It doesn't look like we'll be seeing a return to 88 anytime soon.
And why does this matter?
Again, it's all about the flow of funds. A weak Pig will help to drive the entire "commodity" sector higher. (http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4733/ebb-and-flow-funds) Soon, a fire will be re-lit under the metals and the historically large Spec short position will be forced to cover. A falling dollar along with the attendant higher commodity prices will only exacerbate the pain for the shorts.
So, hang in there. Regardless of whether old Hampton breathlessly exclaims "UP 88,000" or "UP 288,000" tomorrow morning, QE∞ is going to continue unabated. No amount of SPIN or Fed Goon posturing is going to change that. This fact WILL, eventually, be realized by the paper metals markets. It's simply a matter WHEN.
More in the morning.