wow you guys are really on a roll!
love this site...one stop shop for all our metals information needs.
its like an aggregated metals portal - but way more fun! ;)
Pailin's Trading Corner
June 16, 2011 - 6:08am
#102
and another great chart!
June 16, 2011 - 6:39am
#104
Background
I am also self-employed, but businesses are not doing well. So I have been actively investing/trading Silver until other opportunities show up.
I've been trading/investing 13 years. Lost a bundle (6 figures) in the tech bubble as a novice trader. I managed to make it back trading equities after a steep learning curve. Read many books, blogs, attended courses, software etc.
I use multiple trading methods/software to arrive at my investment decisions. I no longer believe in the equities market as it is all due to Fed pumping and $ devaluation. The best way to make money these days is to buy in a Secular Bull market which will forgive poorly timed purchases. PM's are the ONLY Secular Bull market.
In 2006 I sold a property in London which tripled in value after buying in 1995. These profits were put in an offshore account making a nice income getting nearly 8% interest (one account was in Iceland. I was savvy enough to get out while the getting was good). Then rates dropped,and that income disappeared.
After watching Gold move from $450 to $850, I decided to take money out of the banking system and put 50% of those profits into gold coins in 2008. They have seen a nice increase, BUT realised that these are were actual profits but rather a preservation of wealth.
I needed to generate PROFITS, so I looked at silver as an under-valued play in the Jim Rogers style. After much research, I put 25% of my property profits (which were still in an offshore account collecting .25% interest!) into silver right at the breakout point of the August 2010 bull run. I rode it for the most part to the top for excellent profits. I did this by buying PHYSICAL. NO leverage. I knew that Silver was called the "bitchy" metal, and that leverage could kill anyone. At the halfway point of that run, I fine-tuned my strategy for buying physical so as to maximise my profits in future.
So here I am today accumulating slowly, and waiting for a huge SPIKE down (2008 style I hope) to back the truck up with.
I Buy BLOOD Red days when there is FEAR. The only way to win in this manipulated market.
I love to learn more about the PM's and came across the Great Turd. I thought it was fantastic that Turd's main goal was to help the unknowing sheeple. I tried to help those around me by telling them what's happening in the economic world. Most either stuck their head in the ground, or called me a negative, pessimist conspiracy nut. I no longer spout my views unless I feel they will be taken openly and honestly. My wife is of the ostrich persuasion, even though she understands my views are correct. I am posting here as to share with others wanting to learn and share.
My sister is married to a high wealth trader for Credit Suisse (after leaving UBS). I went to visit them in CT over Xmas. Her husband and I have good conversations about the economy, and he agrees the future sucks. Funnily enough, he gave me The Gartman Letter every day while in CT. lol
Best conversation during Xmas was with one of his former UBS colleagues, who lost his job there. Not knowing him, I asked what he did for a living. He told me "he closed banks"! I asked how, and he said he worked for the FDIC. He told me that he cannot understand how Americans can keep spending on STUFF when they cannot afford it. HE sees what is going on BEHIND closed doors...and it ain't good. HE IS SAVING. and PREPARING.
Well that's my story, and I'm sticking to it...lol
I will end this spiel with a graph of the EMOTIONS of Trading.
June 16, 2011 - 6:43am
#105
YUKON. MAY NOT BE A COMPLETE BUST DESPITE GOLDRUMS
Yes, we seem to be in the goldrums again. Whilst self preservation
has taken me out of most of my junior positions, sadly, I refuse to
leave the Yukon, as some of the projects there are so exciting to me
that I am blinded into thinking that some of the companies there
may not quite become a complete bust even if the stock markets do
tank. Thanks to Pailin here I've put some protective shorts on, and
am still largely in cash, core untouched.
@Eric1 / original. You asked me what I thought about Kaminak.
It was the next day in the UK when I saw the post and didnt answer.
However, I've found a very handy website with the catchy name of
yukonminingrecorder.ca This is very useful for trying to follow
geologic trends and keeping up with new staking claims in the region.
I am mainly concentrated now in the Rau and Nadaleen trends / Selwyn
basin as I think there may be some high grade ore bodies being discovered
there this summer. Having said that, the white gold district is also very
exciting, and looking at KAM's drill results and share chart, it looks a very
sound pick as I think it must be attracting some institutional buying. I
would definitely be a buyer today if I had a little more directional confidence.
Northern Tiger looks an interesting budget brand KAM as well, although a
more risky proposition as no apparent underpinnings in share price. One day,
I hope to visit this region to get some proper hands-on experience, and maybe
even do a little panning here and there.
June 16, 2011 - 7:07am
#106
WOW, just wow....
I'm so sorry I didn't get to read this thread earlier.
I was out most of last night, got back and straight to bed. I keep an eye on prices with my phone but the forums are not so 'mobile friendly'
Pailin, kudos to you. reading your story, you've gone up in my estimations even further. Also, thanks again for all your help, plenty of silver bulls out there would tell a loser like me that I got whats coming to me and shouldn't have played paper.
I will be buying physical as soon as I can make back at least half of what I lost on May 1st. I hear what you say about not helping people out too much when they come for help when TSHTF, I hope I'm in early enough and have a ticket!
JoeKa, loving your work! Again, thanks for your help.
Hi-Ho - Love the avatar!
As for my life story, I won't bore people with it. By the sound of things, I've had it reasonably easy going and should be much richer than I am now. But I've just hit 37 and intend to sort it out for my future kid/s and the wife.
Any help you guys can give a loser like me is greatly appreciated. I've made money off the markets before and made all the usual mistakes. It seems 90% of my profits were just gained through luck. All my loses are from emotions (And Blythe of course!)
Thanks for sharing.. and good luck to us all!
-
- EDIT - On a side note, Harfwit, what are you using when you type a post? Your formatting always throws me!
Also, who the hell has hat tipped me? I've only ever contributed sarcasm to this site! Can't imagine I've said anything of any value!
June 16, 2011 - 7:21am
#107
This from today's Ed Steer
This from today's Ed Steer Gold & Silver column....
Here's a paragraph from silver analyst Ted Butler's Wednesday commentary to his paying subscribers...
"Silver inventory changes have been in the news recently. Thanks to a 2 million ounce withdrawal from the COMEX inventories, the total level of holdings dropped below the 100 million ounce mark for the first time in many years. Over the past two days, 8 million more ounces have been redeemed from the SLV. That brings the total amount of silver redeemed from the Trust to 55 million ounces from the end of April. As I have previously written, I think there has been a massive shift in ownership of physical silver from weak hands to strong hands, as well as a monumental shift in COMEX contracts (as evidenced in the COT). I believe this holds extremely bullish implications for the price of silver."
June 16, 2011 - 7:39am
#108
One More Big Precious Metals Fall? By Patrick A. Heller
In the first two days of May, gold and silver prices dropped sharply. By mid May, silver had fallen about one-third from its end of April peak, while gold lost about 10 percent.
These moves were a greater percentage fast decline than had been experienced in the previous two years. The size of the drop and the subsequent price volatility has left a number of our customers concerned that there may be one more major price drop before prices resume their overall upward trend.
In April and May, my own companies sold so much physical precious metals, especially silver, that those months were among the highest sales volume months in our 40 years in business. Dealers and wholesalers around the country told me similar stories of their high level of activity.
As prices dropped in the first two days of May, both buying and selling activity declined. Then high volume returned, with almost all of it customers purchasing from us at levels near what we experienced in the prior two months. Volume again temporarily dipped in the third week of May after prices touched bottom, then picked up again the following week.
In the most recent week in early June, however, volume has again tapered off. In many years, there has been a summer lull in activity, where prices were relatively stable until the manufacturers started stocking up metal in late August and September to produce jewelry for the Christmas sales season. Will this again happen in 2011?
My crystal ball is a little cloudy on that question. However, I can report that my own company has a surprising number of established customers who are waiting for a possible one more large price drop before they jump in to purchase. In some instances, customers have sent us funds in advance so that they can move quickly when the market hits their target price. In total, between established customers who have sent us up-front funds and those who are checking periodically to see if now is the right time for them to buy, we have the largest pool of potential demand in 40 years.
There are some important points to draw from this situation. First, the potential demand to purchase is very high while we have comparatively few customers waiting for gold and silver prices to rise a bit so they can sell off their positions.
Second, the recent price volatility has scared a large quantity of people enough that they fear another significant decline before prices resume rising. This is in contrast to only a handful of customers who think that markets have peaked and it is only downhill from here.
Third, the major price declines were not associated with any financial or economic developments that point to an improving economy in the United States. The U.S. dollar has enjoyed some temporary strength during the latest European financial crisis, but that seems largely to have passed now. As a matter of fact, the continuing financial reports point to continuing bad news over next few years, not a recovery as President Obama and other top federal officials are trying to proclaim.
In my judgment, we are not facing a question of whether the U.S. dollar and economy are destined to decline in the coming months. The politicians and bureaucrats have boxed themselves in so that future declines are inevitable. The question in the minds of many of our customers is will there be one more sharp drop before gold and silver establish price levels much higher than today?
I cannot give you a flat out answer. Instead, let me give you two possible scenarios of how prices may play out over the summer. If gold and silver slowly trend upward, I don’t think there is much prospect of a major sudden decline. On the other hand, the financial markets have lots of sizeable potential disasters waiting to explode. If one or more of these were to erupt, then we could see a concerted effort to suppress precious metals prices.
I want to be clear about one thing. At most, I foresee the prospect of just one major price drop at anywhere near current gold and silver price levels. So, should this decline come to pass, don’t wait any longer to load up on your precious metals. If there isn’t any unusually large fall in prices, I think those waiting should take action by mid August at the latest.
Here’s one more point to ponder. If you are looking at gold and silver prices at least doubling or tripling from today’s levels, as I do, do you really want to risk prices rising while you wait for a possible 10 percent price drop? I advocate taking the long term view, where you will be happy having purchased silver at a price in the $30s, and not really concerned whether it was $37, $36, $35, $34, $33, or $32. As long as your purchase point is below $38, I am confident you will be happy in the long run.
June 16, 2011 - 7:39am
#109
NCOT
Let's not go to far with the loser talk, anybody on this site that's not a troll is already ahead in the game by 99.5% just by reading and digesting. Swapping ponzi bucks for real money is a commitment, it's not for everybody and we each reach our "when" moment at different times. I wish I'd been tuned into gold and silver at $250 and $4 respectively. Oh well. I think $1500 and $35 will look the same not too long from now.
NCOT - I just tipped you for your honesty. Make a plan with care, stick to it, and you'll be more right than wrong...in time :)
June 16, 2011 - 7:53am
#110
Dennis Gartman: Gold To Replace Euro
Me---Gartman has a pitiful record buying gold (but he does get hints when BB sell though). Worth the read:
The publisher of The Gartman Letter thinks gold is becoming the world’s No. 2 reserve asset, that OPEC will outlast the euro, but that ultimately, nothing is more important than agriculture.
Dennis Gartman is the man behind The Gartman Letter, a daily newsletter discussing global capital markets. For over 20 years, The Gartman Letter has tackled the political, economic and social trends shaping the world's markets, and Gartman himself is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg and other financial media outlets.
Recently, we sat down with Gartman to discuss his recent call to go long-gold in nondollar terms, the changing role of OPEC and whether anything’s more important than agriculture.
Hard Assets Investor (HAI): Let’s get right to the meat of it. You recently said that you were bullish on gold, but not in dollar terms; rather, euros, pounds, yen, etc. How would you actually put that trade on, since gold is generally traded in dollars?
Dennis Gartman (Gartman): Well, it's not as difficult as it sounds. If you buy gold, by definition you have gone short of the U.S. dollar. If you buy a gold future or if you buy a gold ETF, that's essentially the trade you made. You've bought gold, you've gone short the dollar.
Let's say one did $100,000 worth of the gold ETF, GLD; how do you turn that into gold in euro terms? Well, you short the euro ETF, which should be easily shortable, but sometimes it's hard to borrow. If you bought $100,000 worth of the gold ETF, you would sell $100,000 worth of the euro ETF. And essentially what you have done is construct gold in euro terms.
If you bought $75,000 worth of the gold ETF and sold $25,000 worth of the yen ETF, sold $25,000 worth of the euro ETF, sold $25,000 worth of sterling, then you've effectively created gold in all of those other currencies. You've created a gold position not in U.S. dollars.
It's a much better trade. Gold has become a currency and it's become the reservable asset, in competition primarily with the euro, which is now the second-most-liquid reservable asset. And given the problems that are extant in Europe at this time with Greece and Portugal, Spain, Italy, etc., I just think it's the better trade. The more consistent trade and the less volatile trade is to be long-gold in non-U.S. dollar terms.
So you can do it most easily in the ETFs or you can do it very readily in the futures markets, which most people don't like to trade in.
HAI: What's the thesis for not wanting to be short the dollar? What's wrong with being short the dollar right now?
Gartman: Well, I think it's a bad trade. I think that the euro is now topped out dramatically. I think the problems in Europe are so severe that we're going to wake up one day and find that the euro is no longer traded; whether that's next week or next month or next year, I don't know. But the problems in Europe are much worse than all the problems here in the United States, fiscally. Except for Germany.
HAI: So it's not so much a dollar play as it is an anti-euro play.
Gartman: Itis gold, in euro terms, predicated upon problems in Europe. So in some instances, some days you see gold is unchanged and the euro starts to go down. That's what happened yesterday. Long-gold in euro terms yesterday was really a short euro trade.
Today, long-gold in euro terms is, you're going to be losing a tenth of a percent as we speak, right now, on the trade. But if you were long gold in dollar terms, you'd be down a full percent.
HAI: So this speaks to sort of gold reiterating its historical role as money. Do you see this spilling over into other precious metals at all? Silver's basically been dead in the water since the consolidation. Do you think that that bull market is over in silver?
Gartman: I let people who are wiser, or younger, or stupider than I am trade silver. The random noise, the volatility, the scattershot trading that occurs in silver—it’s not a place that I find myself even modestly comfortable. So I hide to the sidelines and let somebody else trade it.
HAI: That's fair enough. But you have recently come out talking about being bullish on oil. Presumably that's something you're a little more willing to wade into.
Gartman: Yes, I think that the oil market has changed. Not today. I mean, they're just killing oil today. But I think what the Saudis have done was a brilliant move on their part, just a truly brilliant move. They said that they've split with OPEC—that the other OPEC members, basically the non-Gulf members, didn't wish to increase production. They said that they did and they would.
Interestingly enough, they've increased production in something that nobody wants. They're increasing production at a very heavy, high sulfur crude, which nobody really wants. And so, the Saudis, I think, have pulled the wool over a lot of people's eyes, especially the American public. It looks like they have done the right thing. It looks like they stood by us when in essence they really haven't. Nobody wants to buy Saudi heavy. No refiner anywhere will step up to buy it.
HAI: Do you think the rumors of OPEC's imminent demise have been overstated? A lot of the reporting about OPEC recently, even here on our own site, pointed out that the recent OPEC meeting was essentially saying this wasn't a decision by OPEC, it was a failure of OPEC to do its job and come to any consensus.
Gartman: It's very hard for Shia and Sunni Muslims to come to any agreement on anything. And what you saw here was a rift between Iran and Saudi Arabia. And the Saudis, I think, in back channels, have said, "We've got a problem here. We need to make sure that we placate the United States and appear to be friendly with the United States. At the same time, we would prefer keeping oil prices reasonably firm. How do we accomplish that? Well, let us make a statement that we're here to increase production, and let's increase production in something that nobody wants."
They get the best of both worlds.
HAI: So OPEC isn’t in collapse?
Gartman: T. Boone Pickens was on CNBC saying what he thinks he saw at this meeting was the beginning of the end of OPEC. I heard the same story about the beginning of the end of OPEC in 1980. We heard it in '85. We heard it in '90. It's 2011. OPEC's still here.
HAI: But do you think that they remain as relevant? Most new sources of oil aren’t inside OPEC: The Campos Basin in Brazil, for instance, or sort of alternative sources of oil like the shale and tar sands. Does OPEC continue to matter as much as it has historically? Or will it sort of be in a continual decline?
Gartman: OPEC is obviously less valid than it was previously. But I don't think it is invalid. I think their power is obviously somewhat limited compared to what it was. But do they still have an effect upon the global world market? Of course they do. Do I think they're going away any time soon? No, I really don't. I think Europe will go away faster than will OPEC.
HAI: One more thing before I let you go. Last year you famously said, quite self-deprecatingly, that corn was kind of your worst call of the year. You went long right before a surprise nobody saw coming in the corn inventory reports. Now we're looking at corn that's near record highs. Is it too late for investors to be paying attention to agriculture?
Gartman: No, it's not too late for anybody to be paying attention to agriculture but it might be too late to be long corn. But it's not too late to be paying attention to agriculture. I mean, agriculture, what's more important than food? I'm going with nothing is more important than food. So people need to pay attention to agriculture.
But here you have corn now trading at 50 cents over wheat. That's inexplicable. And as Lord Keynes said, the market can remain irrational far longer than you or I can remain solvent. Corn prices 50 cents per bushel over wheat is irrationality. And it won't last for very long. But it's the harsh fundamentals of the moment.
We've not been able to get the corn crop adequately in the ground, and that's going to be a real problem for corn this year. The problem for corn next year will be that livestock producers are absolutely dumping livestock on the market because nobody can feed hogs, chickens and cattle at $7.50 for corn. You just can't do it.
So they've been dumping underweight hogs, underweight cattle, just so they don't have to feed them high-priced corn. That's putting downward pressure upon livestock prices. But what it also means is you're removing all of next year's livestock from the market. Next year we're going to be so short of livestock it's going to be frightening.
HAI: Right, and presumably that gives you a negative-demand effect for corn—you'd expect it to come down.
Gartman: That is correct. The feed usage of corn, I think, will be demonstrably smaller next year and into 2013 than it is this year.
HAI: You talk about the prices sort of being irrational. You commented, I think once in your letter on gold, you talked about there being sort of too many people involved in gold. Do you feel like the commodities markets overall have kind of changed with the retailization of futures through ETFs?
Gartman: Well, I think that there's probably too many participants because of long-only funds, who don't trade commodities the way commodity pros normally do. Commodity pros are willing to be short as well as willing to be long, whereas the long ETFs are by definition long; they don't ever get short. And so they end up piling in, and then all of a sudden the door slams and their models all turn and they dump prices for weeks on end.
So that's a problem. And I think it tends to move prices egregiously too high. And at the same time it then moves them egregiously too low. So perhaps there's some concern there. But nothing really changes. We're human beings; we don't change.
HAI: Fair enough. Dennis, this has been really insightful. Thanks very much for taking the time.
June 16, 2011 - 7:57am
#111
a big L ?
So here are the facts:
1. Just turned 37
2. Understanding Wife (but don't push it!) lol
3. Kid on the way
4. Swell international friends like Pailin, Harfwit, Tesla, MARAdona 
and me
5. Oh did I mention me?
Erm, this don't sound like a LOSER deal to me mate.
P.S. minus 1000 hat tips for mentioning MARAdona.
P.S.S. I'll make up the hat tip deficient when Silver hits $5 again.
June 16, 2011 - 8:02am
#112
Morning all!
This seems to be "the Place to Be", so here I am!
At the moment, I only have a tiny ZSL position, mostly as a learning experience. It's more engaging with "skin in the game", I pay more attention to the moves in the market, but not enough that I have to bail if it goes against me.
I'm trying to make this my "summer of education", I started trading last Fall, felt like a genius, and then May 1 brought some hard truths down on my head. So for now it's small trades, learn the ropes, and scale back in when QE3 is announced.
Love all the charts, thanks! I'm a visual kind of guy, so it helps.
June 16, 2011 - 8:03am
#113
KIWI!
Hey buddy! How are you mate?
June 16, 2011 - 8:03am
#114
Pailin, if you look at how
Pailin, if you look at how much I've made (or not) this year from paper trading... I'm a loser!
June 16, 2011 - 8:07am
#115
erm, but you've gained...
experience at least right? just sayin... =P
guess everyone pays school fees.
June 16, 2011 - 8:12am
#116
JoeKa
I'll reply to your reply point by point sir!
So here are the facts:
1. Just turned 37 - Without as much saved up as I could have by comparison! Spent way too much enjoying life over the years!
2. Understanding Wife (but don't push it!) lol - Yeah, not so understanding when I told her I blew the money for us to go away for our anniversary and she can't go back to South Africa to visit her folks...
3. Kid on the way - True.. winning on that one...
4. Swell international friends like Pailin, Harfwit, Tesla, MARAdona and me - Yeh, cos me and MARadona are like "this man!"
5. Oh did I mention me? - Twice I think...
Cheered me up though mate!
June 16, 2011 - 8:13am
#117
US Warships Moved To Syrian Coast- good for PM's
This could be good news for Silver/Gold...and a reason why the summer will NOT be quiet.
US Warships Moved To Syrian Coast
Even as the Obama administration prepares to launch a full ground war in Libya while expanding its drone attacks inside Yemen and Pakistan, US warships are being moved towards the Mediterrenean coast of Syria, precisely in line with forecasts that the Bilderberg Group intended to launch a massive new war in the Middle East, with Syria being its prime target.
U.S. Invasion of Libya Set for October
Infowars.com has received alarming reports from within the ranks of military stationed at Ft. Hood, Texas confirming plans to initiate a full-scale U.S.-led ground invasion in Libya and deploy troops by October.
INFOWARS EXCLUSIVE: Military Sources Reveal Ground Force Invasion of Libya
Infowars.com has received alarming reports from within the ranks of military stationed at Ft. Hood, Texas confirming plans to initiate a full-scale U.S.-led ground invasion in Libya and deploy troops by October.
June 16, 2011 - 8:14am
#118
Fees
experience at least right? just sayin... =P
guess everyone pays school fees.
True....
Shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiitttttttttttt - Gonna need to save up for them too for the kid!
June 16, 2011 - 8:14am
#119
XAU
They keep trying to get my paper gold at break even.
Sorry boys, can't do it. The target is 1544; a modest return on 1531.8...not even 1%. You want my paper, you've got to come and get it :)
June 16, 2011 - 8:15am
#120
selling pressure
so again, just like yesterday, although we're starting from a marginally higher position on the chart (M15), I see selling pressure at precisely 35.66
June 16, 2011 - 8:18am
#121
Syria, Libya
You know what, a non doldrum summer for metals is certainly plausible. I do not discount that.
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JoeKa, I agree. I'm a pretty private person actually, I mean REALLY private and I didn't put myself at any risk with what I shared, but I do think that background gives others perspective and context on the how and why of what I do and my trading style. I'm really concerned about people mirroring my trades, but not having the context and same risk profile and burning themselves. That would suck.
Thanks for reiterating that you've been stacking. For the love of Methuselah folks, trade away, but KEEP STACKING (yes, I mean you NCOT :)
JoeKa I'm thrilled for you, not that you've found work per se, but that it will be interesting and challenging for you. Hang in there bro and make the most of it...not to be a jerk here but you probably know that, much like paper gains in silver, it can all disappear even faster than it came on (e.g. always watch your backside!) The hardest part of being involuntarily unemployed for too long is keeping your mind active and engaged. Way too easy to just do Netflix streaming all day (um, oops!)
Having a good honey for sure eases the situation and it's all part of the Millionaire Next Door deal, gotta have a backup plan at all time :)
__________________
I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild
Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell