The setup for the big trade

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SilverLeaf
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Jim Sinclair on KWN today

Normally wouldn't put this much weight on an Eric "Leading the Witness" King interview, but this is the clearest view I've heard Santa express to date regarding this correction.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/2/27_Jim_Sinclair_-_Gold_Will_Now_Be_Released_To_The_Upside.html

Eric King: “This smash that we’ve seen in gold, is it over?”

Sinclair: “On or before the 28th of February is the date that I’ve been living with, and it looks like it’s right. The mining shares, those are the most liquid positions are the shorts. So basically the mining shares today were in shock at the price of gold and didn’t believe it.

What is the best sign here for us is that we didn’t get a Monday smash. Also, the morning takedowns have been less enthusiastic. So you would have to conclude that the morning takedowns are not being done by the major manipulators now. That’s a reversal of a pattern and a reversal of a pattern means a reversal of the (gold) market.

I think any time you’ve taken a hit like this you are going to have to chop your way out and that’s exactly what I think we’ve been doing so far this week. But if the pattern now is reversed, and that will be very obvious next Monday morning, I think gold could shoot right back out of this hole and aggressively to the upside.”

Eric King: “Would that be a V-bottom Jim?”

Sinclair: “This time, yes. With the amount of pressure recently on the downside, and with the reversal of the pattern of what was the hallmark of the interest that created the downside, the answer is yes, a V-bottom is what you would expect.”

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sixdollarsilver
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quotes

argentus maximus wrote:

Bruce Lee said, and I probably butcher his words: "Our style must be "no style"

He did say something like this. He also talked about the art of fighting without fighting. Good words :)

bluefish
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the green line

That is a pretty green line "C" you drew argentus maximus. The corresponding parallel resistance line has quite a few exact touches and makes for a nice looking channel.

Goldeagle
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Why gold is dropping ?? :( 

Why gold is dropping ?? :( 

It's a mystery
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Position squaring at $1600

That was quite a few units that expired on the $1600 line this week.

Next week is interesting as this expiration will be witnessed in the COT report Friday.

Goldeagle
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Agentus please where are you

Agentus please where are you i need ur help!!! I bought 50 ounces at 1560$ and I am thinking to sell them !!! Becoz i see the market again weak and dropping. do u advice me to wait ??

appreciated

It's a mystery
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He cannot give you advice without consequences

if they are related to ..you should sell or you should buy.

Just set a stop somewhere between 1560 and zero?

Goldeagle wrote:

Agentus please where are you i need ur help!!! I bought 50 ounces at 1560$ and I am thinking to sell them !!! Becoz i see the market again weak and dropping. do u advice me to wait ??

appreciated

Rico
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Goldeagle wrote: Agentus

Goldeagle wrote:

Agentus please where are you i need ur help!!! I bought 50 ounces at 1560$ and I am thinking to sell them !!! Becoz i see the market again weak and dropping. do u advice me to wait ??

appreciated

LOL!  Good one!

Goldeagle
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They are physical not paper

They are physical not paper .. I only buy physical.  I donno what to do .. I guess ill take the risk and wait for tomorrow's  GDP and jobless claims if they were bad then gold will be good hopefully.

argentus maximus
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@Goldeagle I think that if I

@Goldeagle

I think that if I make any reply at all to your direct question this will cause me to be interrogated by possibly several different regulatory bodies for having committed several offences!

I suggest you look for a financial advisor who is familiar with the metals markets, who is professionally qualified, regulated and protected by/from the law who will take your specific investment needs and risk tolerances into account while providing the advise you need.

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Byzantium
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@ Goldeagle

This is not advice, but just to note a third option that you overlook. Selling just a part of it (as merited by your own risk assessment and due diligence) kind of hedges your bets a bit.

As an aside, if you are so distressed by the uncertainty of future price action (and this uncertainty will never go away) then you are probably in too deep.

foscotanner
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goldeagle

action today was called by Argentus.

The post yesterday with the charts with the green lines.

effectively said stronger selling tomorrow (27th).

to be fair he called the 27th some time ago as the minor selling point compared to the 21st.

reading his post yesterday, he suggests that the selling pressure on 27th would be stronger. i have not looked at any volume info.

Anyway - key to yesterday is that if they cannot drop the price down to price point 3 on next selling (check - they have not yet) then we are off to races immediately after.

I am guessing that there could be some follow through selling tomorrow. However this has not been suggested by Argentus. I am guessing that until we see the 'off to the races' there must remain a possibility that the selling continues and price point 3 is taken.

What would i be doing if i had 50 ounces of new Au bought for from FIAT. i would sleep easy. As argentus has stated, we may see a top and a bottom before blast off, but we are in the window with a margin for error.

If I had 50 ounces on margin then i would be very worried. Not because i think the markets will tank but because you are the bad guys target........

I think there are a few days before you would need to worry. i think the only person expecting 1530/1550 to break anytime soon is martin armstrong. And if he is right then you probably have this week and next week before things go mad.

But i am no expert on this market. I have an ability to listen to what people say, understand it and rationalize it. It then helps me to lose a lot of money. Mind you - all my purchases of physical that I have made are well in the money. The odd thing about all of them is that when i bought them, the price seemed to fall before it went up.

I guess you can see why i have such an interest in Argentus' writings. Timing is not my strong point.

What is my strong point is the fact that I know metals will travel to higher prices than todays price at some point in the future. So i value my physical at these prices now since thats where it is going. Whether someone else values it at 1600, 1100 or 2500 i care not since i know the price that i would sell at.

madwaloo
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@ goldeagle

Go back and read #234 for some price retracement levels. So far the action is normal and to be expected.  Nothing goes straight up.

However, you should always decide at what price you will sell if price doesn't go your way BEFORE you buy. There is always the possibility that the trade goes against you.

Hope things work out for you.

foscotanner
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post 234 is the one with the

post 234 is the one with the graphs and price point 3.

it is worth noting that in a previous post argentus commented on positive price action for days such as the 27th.

this would be the sort of action we saw on 26th (failed take down on volume) or the sort of action we saw today (drop on low volume)

SteveW
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UGL

Got stopped out on the dip below $1593, so I made pennies.

Going to try bottom fishing tomorrow.

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Cottonbelt21
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Watching Every Tick ...

... then your position/size likely too big and need to lighten exposure - you'd be surprised how this takes away the hidden stress & emotion.  IMO, physical purchases should be for stacking and wealth preservation through this historic moment not trading (unless paper futures contracts)

Turd Ferguson
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Why wouldn't you just buy a

Why wouldn't you just buy a put to hedge it?

Green Lantern
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A guy who has been on the

A guy who has been on the forum for a couple of days.  Makes a bold purchase well over $70 grand well into the bull market.   Dude obviously sitting on some cash must know something about $.   And then all of a sudden shows up crying like a child who lost his mother in mall?  Help me? 

Sounds like a far fetched story to me.   He masterfully found himself into this forum rather quickly.  He has some skills.  

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Byzantium
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Help this poor fool out.....

poor fool being me.

So here is the plot. Byzantium has been following this thread, but might be a poor student, because apart from being a gripping read, I don't really know if I've got it. Could be that I am the lone fool, but no harm in asking.

My understanding in a paragraph, to sum it all up:

Everything is connected, and Argentus was able to correctly pinpoint in advance, 19th to 21st Feb as being crunch time for PMs, in which they might be pushed off the window-ledge. The shorts would meet the remaining bulls, and one side would win. The outcome would set up the price direction for the following month (though the extent of that move remained beyond scope). The 27th Feb (now past) was the final chance for the shorts to change this direction. We were given key dates and the significance of those dates, and now we are hanging around for more, but this show is in fact over(?). 

Can I conclude that the bulls won by stopping the bears at a key support level, and that we can expect a measure of ascent (extent not specified) for the next month?

I'm in no way criticising the thread, I thoroughly enjoyed it, but I seek to affirm my understanding; I'd hate to think I missed the essence.

Cheers

Byz.

argentus maximus
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It might seem that clear

It might seem that clear looking back, but I assure you when typing the posts there were no end of doubts in my mind about what to say. Your summation is pretty much what I thought up till now.

Today I was cheesed off to get an inside range day on low volume, although it opened up into a slight downday after hours, I got very few clues!

So right now, and in advance of the carefully considered post that may come later, I'm dithering between a drop from yesterday in a descending-sideways range towards a low at March 19-20, then we go up and away ... OR .. we breakout quickly after this small selloff, and zoom up towards a top on March 19-20, then drop towards mid-April, before rising up again! The best clue I have is that Feb 19-21 was vital and an upturn, a 3 month turn or better, and Feb 27th is minor, a zig or zag within a better swing, not likely to overturn Feb 19-21. I almost bought a little more metal today at the rising trendline, but backed off both times for lack of a decent pullback to buy into.   But still holding my longs! smiley

I think I need less coffee and more sleep ....

I might wait for some resolution in price by looking at another market or the Silver-Gold ratio tomorrow. I got some PM requests for other markets, and for a big picture view on metals & HUI that might be interesting.

The Dow looks like someone kicked it in the stomach since the metals turn, wobbling prior to a drop, or big QE  injection.

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