Gold? Silver? The Miners?....All Three?

Tuesday, February 26, 2013 at 10:06 am

While kicking around YouTube last night, I found this interesting video.

This video is an interview of Jay Taylor, who is an analyst and a radio host. He discusses the metals, the miners, the economy and even the gold standard and he does so from the point of view of a "Turdite" so I thought you'd find it informative and compelling. It might even be a good one to send along to family and friends who are "on the fence".

12:40 p.m. EST UPDATE:

I'm extraordinarily busy today so there is no time for a full, new post. However, as you've noticed, The Bernank has thrown us a few bones today in an attempt to talk up the stock market and increase his beloved "wealth effect".

I've noticed several requests for updated charts so I've posted them below. As we discussed yesterday, there are stages and hurdles in every recovery and the action today has boosted us through several. This is good as it greatly increases the pressure on the existing shorts, particularly those that were late to the game and were only sucked in last week. And that is where we will find our "critical levels".

First of all, we need to put today in the books without giving too much back. As I type, I've got gold near $1613 and it simply need to close above $1600 for our recovery purposes. IF we get something above $1615...even better! In silver, I really want to see us close above $29.20 and I've got a last of $29.34. Keep your fingers crossed.

As mentioned above, each metal now has a "critical level" and those can be found by looking at the price action since the beginning of the year. Recall that back on Jan 3 and 4, the metals were shoved lower and gold found a bottom near $1626. As price swooned two weeks ago, it became clear to nearly everyone that the $1626 level was going to be important support and, below there, the shorts would find plenty of sell-stops to harvest. Taking advantage of thin, overnight trading, The Bad Guys were able to swamp $1625 in U.S. wee hours of Friday, the 15th. Once below there, all sorts of tech-trading HFTs and momos were drawn into the short trade and the result was last week's cascade down to a low of $1555.

Almost all of those trades are now under water. If I were a fresh short, I'd be almost panicky here with a very itchy trigger finger. My only hope is that we stay below $1625 and then move back lower. In desperation, I may even double-down in the hopes of rescuing myself.

So there you have it. The "critical level" in this recovery is $1625. In silver, the commensurate point on the chart is near $30.20 so that is the other critical level. Watch them closely the rest of this week. WHEN price finally recovers through those levels, I expect a rapid return toward the levels sustained before the Chinese New Year, when The Forces of Darkness felt compelled to begin this current event...roughly $1670 in gold and $31.50 in silver.

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Comments

WOW - US Mint update today

Submitted by Irksome on February 26, 2013 - 5:58pm.

Yesterday's Feb ASE sales: 3,031,500

Today Feb ASE sales: 3,368,500

Previous all-time Feb high: 3,240,000

Two more days to go to extend that all-time Feb sales high. There is certainly demand being shown for ASEs at these prices!

Quick update: Not Achalasia.

Submitted by Puck T. Smith on February 26, 2013 - 6:04pm.

Quick update: Not Achalasia. They found a tumor in my esophagus. I'm scheduled to see an oncologist tomorrow.

I'm not going to belabor this on Main Street any more. I appreciate the well wishes and encouragement for everyone here and in the PMs people sent. I'll try to stick to my shilling for anarcho-captialism and 90% silver going forward.

Thanks again. You guys are the best.

Peace.

i'm sorry

Submitted by boatman on February 26, 2013 - 6:05pm.

i have to say that gap filling is the TA tool i just don't believe in.

i think it is an arbitrary time-dependant construction.

in REAL time there are no gaps..........or if you look close enough, EVERY TICK is a gap.

Puck

Submitted by Admiral Ag Bar on February 26, 2013 - 6:11pm.

Sorry to hear it, man. Wishing you the best.

Steve Quayle

Submitted by Katie Rose on February 26, 2013 - 6:12pm.

There are lots of folks who like to flame Steve Quayle.

www.stevequayle.com

I am not one of them.

Without Steve's input into my life, I would be drowning in debt and trying to extract myself from all kinds of stupid real estate investments. He taught me about PM's and why it was a good thing to buy some. He cautioned me about living in the city. (Yes I have spoken to him in person.) His timing may be off a bit, but his information is generally accurate.

When I see that folks are flaming Steve, I often wonder who they work for and what their agenda is.

I spoke with a mortgage broker last year a number of times. He is a good, solid man. He told me that his contacts in banks were telling him horror stories about what was going on with people's safe deposit boxes - how both the banks and the federal and state governments were accessing and removing things from customer's safe deposit boxes without the customer's knowledge or permission. He encouraged me to empty mine if I had one.

I would not write off information from Steve Quayle. He is often early in his predictions, but down the road they come to pass.

I felt I needed to provide another view point. I am deeply grateful for Steve's willingness to stand on the front lines as a Watchman on the Wall and warn the rest of us.

Puck

Submitted by Ircsum on February 26, 2013 - 6:12pm.

I'm sure the best wishes of all of Turdville are with you right now. Hopefully the outcome will be a good one.

@Puck

Submitted by RaRaRasputin on February 26, 2013 - 6:12pm.

My thoughts will be with you for the Oncologist appt tomorrow

RaRa

TRUTH

Submitted by The Watchman on February 26, 2013 - 6:15pm.

Puck

Submitted by tyberious on February 26, 2013 - 6:20pm.

My Best Wishes to You!

boatman, I hear you. I don't

Submitted by Prize Fighter on February 26, 2013 - 6:26pm.

boatman, I hear you. I don't believe in a lot of things but that doesn't stop them from happening. Then please tell me how I was able to call $28.60 4-months ago. Or how any single gap I post will be filled. There are HUNDREDS of examples where I've watched this happen over the past year. Not one has failed. Also, there is precedent for traders to use prices as signals so why not a chart? I can't imagine any of us would deny that algos don't have that ability.

My $28.60 gap just happened to fill and coincide right smack in the middle of our popular argentus maximus' 3-day window. He called that 3 weeks ago based on time and I mentioned it 4-months ago based on a .004 gap. 7-months prior to that I called a gap at $27.50 and held my dry powder while everyone did high-fives over $35. Be careful I said. Nobody listened. Spent that dry powder a few months later as silver hit $27.17. All of this is on the record here in my posts.

I can understand how you don't buy into it. A lot of people don't believe me about gold/silver because they don't follow it. Follow me? I probably wouldn't think twice about gaps either if I hadn't followed it but I have and it works. I'll keep calling them out and you let me know when you believe

edit: I don't mean any of this to be bravado whatsoever. I'm a little freaked out about it to be perfectly honest. And most importantly, it is limited to that specific charting service because it's the only one I follow. I don't know if other charts pick it up so maybe I just happen to use the one service where games are played. It's not the price I'm predicting, it's the game I'm watching on a specific service. That is all. Thanks for opportunity to clarify this.

Gold & Silver Ep1: Mike Maloney - Hidden Secrets of Money

Submitted by SilverTree on February 26, 2013 - 6:39pm.

Deceptive ZH Mint Demand Chart

Submitted by ReachWest on February 26, 2013 - 6:43pm.

I think it needs to be pointed out that the charts presented in the ZH article titled "February's Strange Divergence In Precious Metals" are a wee bit deceptive. (Especially given the title of the article indicates 'divergence') You will note that the plot of Silver sales from the US Mint is a Cumulative plot .. so obviously the plot line increases with time.

The important thing in a cumulative plot is the slope. Increased slope would indicate increased demand or increased frequency of sales. That's not what we see when the Silver spot price drops on the graph. The cumulative Silver demand line is pretty much a constant slope. The way this data is presented tricks us into thinking that as price was falling - demand for Silver Eagles was ever increasing. It was not. (Although it is still high for the total month from an historic perspective).

I have drawn a couple of squares, A and B on the chart. The Demand in area A is greater than the demand in Area B. (and in a shorter time frame).

A better way to accurately depict this data would have been to plot the Silver Mint Demand as bars for each time period.

Anyway - just wanted to point this out - I don't care for charts that make things look more dramatic than they are and I think this one does that. Regardless - I'm happy that mint demand is high in February. Keep stacking.

@oneaglewings: Junior Miners & Puck Good Health to You

Submitted by Pegasus on February 26, 2013 - 6:44pm.

You inquired:

Who may have some junior mining picks they may have been following or buying?

Well, off and on over the past 3-4 years I have held: MUX - GPL - CORVUS - ISVLF - EXK - NGD - AXU - CEF - PASS. These are mostly pinks and juniors. Made some good money from most of them in 2011, recently not so much. It really rasps my backside that even on a day like today, when the PM's are showing some good strength, the juniors response has been ho-hum at best. Jeeze, it seems any news at all, good, bad or indifferent and the miners go down. I am holding a core position though, and am willing to sit tight.

@Puck - So sorry to hear of your health issues. I can only wish you the very best and a healthy outcome for whatever course you decide upon. I know it's an old saw, but keeping a good attitude can do wonders for staying on top of your situation. Take care of yourself, I know that all here at Turdville support you with all our best wishes.

and puck

Submitted by boatman on February 26, 2013 - 6:45pm.

we are praying that tumor is benign[i have seen it happen]

if not i have some paths for you, as we have talked about in PMs.

well...........i just don't get them

Submitted by boatman on February 26, 2013 - 6:48pm.

but i have always respected your stuff alot.....and will reconsider.

i just intuitively just don't 'get' them is all.

Right on boatman, you as

Submitted by Prize Fighter on February 26, 2013 - 7:02pm.

Right on boatman, you as well. My background is Civil Eng not markets. When I started learning how to read a chart I was naturally comparing it to a blueprint; you can't build the 3rd floor until the 2nd floor is completed kinda thing. For that reason and my fascination with fractals and systems, fundamentally and philosophically, gaps interested me and I started watching them. Nothing proprietary, no waves, ouija boards or chicken bones needed.

@puck , Look it up on YouTube.

Submitted by Torpedo Fish on February 26, 2013 - 7:11pm.

RUN FROM THE CURE - The Rick Simpson Story

@Puck . . . good luck at oncology tomorrow . . .

Submitted by ancientmoney on February 26, 2013 - 7:15pm.

My mother's husband had similar issues. His tumor was benign--they operated on it, and he was back to normal quickly. Hope the same for you.

My youngest son is now 28 . . .

Submitted by ancientmoney on February 26, 2013 - 7:24pm.

He was a stacker since he was working after his senior year in HS. He bought 500 oz. silver for $2500 he saved, after paying his half of freshman year college costs (we paid 50% for all our kids' college, of which we had four). He now has a great job and just bought another installment of 425 Maples. His stack is growing.

Puck

Submitted by Urban Roman on February 26, 2013 - 7:36pm.

Best of luck to you.

Some bits...

Submitted by Kcap on February 26, 2013 - 7:42pm.

1) Unfortunately, GAPS are the real deal. In an active issue or commodity, they always get filled, unless something will cease trading.

2) Colloidal silver in the bloodstream at 7 PPM will kill most things. FWIW, punk.

Kcap

How Do You Say “History Rhyming” In Mandarin?

Submitted by baobab1961 on February 26, 2013 - 7:55pm.

Hunt brothers vs China ?

http://dailyreckoning.com/an-old-issue-of-playboy-and-a-crap-ton-of-silver/

Off subject but

Submitted by criscrossing on February 26, 2013 - 7:59pm.

Too important not to post. Watch The Most Important Topic for 2013 by Jahn Massaria on YouTube. If what he describes is true this will mean the extinction of all species on the planet....what an unbelievable eye opener........

I would love it if others tried this...

Submitted by Kcap on February 26, 2013 - 8:02pm.

Take a screenshot of Kitco Ag during high volume spikes (or anytime really) and do this at 10 minute intervals for an hour. You'll send up with 6 screenshots for the hour and each one 10 minutes longer than the previous one.

Now...one would think if you over-layed these screenshots that the historical portion of the shot would match up with the new shot. Why is this not the case? Why is Kitco's charting system "re-writing" the charts as they go. Its usually chopping off tails but in other circumstances, they are actually changing the declination of an ascent or descent.

Does anyone know if Crapco has been confronted about this?

Thanks in advance,

Kcap

It's a similar story in the UK.

Submitted by Bollocks on February 26, 2013 - 8:07pm.

Puck

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on February 26, 2013 - 8:10pm.

MODERATOR

MrsF, the LTs and I will keep you in our prayers. Please keep us all posted.

Mike Maloney new video

Submitted by Prize Fighter on February 26, 2013 - 8:17pm.

edit: wow, how did I miss this already posted just above? my bad!

winter storm hitting center of the country...

Submitted by Save_America1st on February 26, 2013 - 8:20pm.

...and HAARP activity nearly off the charts in the same area.

it's just always interesting how storms and HAARP always follow each other...

The Most Important Topic For 2013

Submitted by SilverTree on February 26, 2013 - 8:21pm.

Puck

Submitted by philipat on February 26, 2013 - 8:38pm.

Sorry for my late note due to the time difference in Asia. I hope the news is good today. Keep your spirits up, you were in fine form as we bantered yesterday. My prayers are with you.