Back to Business

Tanned, rested and ready. Reporting for duty.

I'll likely have a lot to say over the next few days so I'll try to keep this brief.

First of all, the notion that The Fed will somehow discontinue or slow QE∞ is downright silly, yet it's lapped up by the MSM and repeated here by folks either unwilling or unable to grasp the rationale for QE in the first place. And besides, this selloff isn't about QE, anyway. That's just your current cover story.

This is about squaring the CoT. Plain and simple. As you know, I've been trying to make sense of the silver CoT for weeks. At nearly 100,000 gross shorts, something had to change. The result is the action since the cutoff last week. The question remains, however: What is happening with the Commercial Long position? Is it growing or shrinking. Total open interest continues to grow so we may simply be seeing a continuation of CommLong growth. We might also be seeing a significant jump in new meat SpecShort positions. Either way, it's impossible to know for sure and that alone makes using the CoT as a trading/investing tool very difficult.

I've said that if silver trades to $22, I'll eat my hat. Yes, I will post a video of me doing exactly that if it occurs. I still have a very hard time believing that it will happen, though. Of course, anything is possible but, for now, silver should find VERY STRONG SUPPORT in the same $26-28 region that has supported it for the past year and a half. Why wouldn't it? What has changed fundamentally that would draw you to conclude that this time it's different?

In gold, though, we have likely reached the point where the CoT would indicate a bottom. Combine that with chart support at the bottom of the 18-month range AND all of the other oversold, technical indicators and I'm very confident in saying that The End Is Near. I know I gave you $1580 over the weekend and, so far, I've been off by $30 or so. In the end, though, that hardly matters. All that matters is that gold is once again at the bottom of its 18-month range. Now, IF THE BOTTOM FAILS and gold trades down through $1525, then we've potentially got a problem on our hands. Until then, though, relax and try to see it for what it is...namely, we're back to where we were last summer and at year-end of 2011.

I'm going to stop there for now but I promise you a full, complete post later today. I know this sucks but hang in there and, for God's sake, DON'T SELL YOUR PHYSICAL.

TF

p.s. All sorts of trolls and disinfo agents were allowed in here yesterday while I was traveling. That will not be the case today. Either state something productive or state nothing at all. This is my site and I will run in at I see fit. Folks that show up here simply to ridicule you or me will not be tolerated. I get sick of reading about how stoo-stoo-stoopid we all are and how I'm just in it for the money. We need helpful feedback on days like this, not bullshit.

157 Comments

vonburpenstein's picture

foist

who cares

would gladly be last or never for a $75 upswing

SRSrocco's picture

WELCOME BACK TURD...

Well, it looks as if things are going to get more interesting as the FED is stuck between a ROCK & HARD place.  They can say they are going to stop easing ALL DAY LONG, however we know that if they do, then the USA as we know it... enters into third world status.

nminihan's picture

Penny for your thoughts

Silver is a wonderful element, 

A fierce wonder, much honoured; 

And its help is great, forever, 

And forever. I give in to silver.

For silver I take the number of days

To be many for the occupation of mine.

The silvered men and women

Are never the forgotten people; 

So choose silver, and wise are you.

Silver is the best metal

Too hard to possess.

-Naveed Akram

Fr. Bill's picture

Fourth?

Yea!

Zoltan's picture

Thanks Turd

Please don't feed the Trolls.

Z

mack's picture

YEA TURD

HI HO SILVER

top 10

Texas Sandman's picture

Maybe trying a little uptrend

My longish term indicators still bearish, but we are up through the top of the trading range on the Murrey Math this morning.

Maybe we can get a little something going on the upside...  market delta is supportive.  Playing the long side, got my head handed to me in the early going, but made it back (still playing long) & actually dare I say a bit positive... Dare I say...

Dr Jerome's picture

Pheeling Philosophical this morning

A bad week.  Watching the price smashes, I had to get my flippers and mask and dive down for a look. Whew! All my metal is still there.

After the financial collapse in 2008, while bemoaning losses in my 403b plan, I looked at every choice that was offered by Fidelity and found only one that survived the crash intact. I put my fiat in that one. My employer sent out a fancy brochure that explained how to rebuild my account--double down and buy stocks. In retrospect, that was good advice. It probably originated from the Bernank himself, who knew what he was planning with his printing press in this fiat world. Big Boss Bernank says "Buy my stuff with the money that I create and thou shalt prosper!"

But a new world is coming. With a different boss and a different currency. Maybe China, Maybe the long awaited Kingdom of God.

I am a man of faith. I stumbled into religion at a young age and found a community of friends who had my back. 36 years later, one of those friends still has my back and vice versa. I was taught, indoctrinated, followed leaders blindly and was generally happy. But then I enrolled in college--not a Christian school but a  secular school--Arizona State. I did well and was offered a full ride scholarship in a master’s program at Syracuse. I did well there, mentored by a man who understood the discipline of Rhetoric (the art of bullshitting persuasion, PR, Sophistry, Mind control, advertising, speeches, argumentation, debate, and honorable, ethical influence). And he knew how to teach. I found favor with him and his recommendation brought full ride offers at Penn State, IU, and U of Memphis. I chose to study in Memphis with a luminary in our field. Drs. Campbell and Osborne knew how to teach and their influence opened doors to classes and conferences with other leaders in our field. I received the best possible education from all corners of our discipline--the oldest academic discipline in the world dating back to 500 BC. I like to say that only prostitution and priestcraft are older professions than persuasion. My mentor traces his academic discipleship directly back to Socrates, in an unbroken chain of teachers & students. I won't claim to have his intellect, or be at the level of his peers, but I grasp their teaching and ideas. I have been taught by the most intelligent people in the world in a discipline that requires proficiency in numerous fields for success.  

Education rocked my Christian faith. I had to examine why I believed what I had believed. My study of Jacques Derrida created a true crisis--his ideas supported pure social constructionism: Feet firmly planted in mid-air! Just like Ben Bernanke, his fiat, and his manipulation of a fiat economy--or so he thinks. "What is truth?" as Pilate sarcastically asked Jesus. I couldn't live in that kind of world.

My mentor taught me that there is an epistemological foundation for faith, taught me that you don't have to live in a malleable, flexible world, created by and shaped by people and propagated by their rhetoric. A foundation can be built through another way of knowing. Aristotle called it “phronesis”—practical wisdom. Descartes started the whole enlightenment movement by simply declaring a couple of facts. John Henry Newman calls this method of finding truth the "Illiative sense"--a way of discovering reality independent of empirical science in those spaces where logic fails. Call it the human spirit, if you like, connecting with God's spirit. When you believe in God, but can't quite explain why, chalk it up to your Illiative sense. Wise philosophers throughout history have put their faith in simply sensing truth and reality. And when one's life experience provides a steady flow of evidence that God indeed interacts with humans, you begin to heap on the empirical data that firmly sets your feet on solid ground.

My crisis of faith was resolved. I could continue to embrace Christianity knowing that the problems within religion originate with people, but that God was real and faithful. Why I chose to continue to follow Jesus over the other options is another story for another day. But the answer is “Yes, one can have the highest levels of education that this world offers and still embrace faith.”

But a new world is coming where Big Boss Bernank's socially constructed kind of money will return to where it came from, and God's kind of money will be recognized as a real store of hard work and scarcity. Gold and silver are real money. Feeding and helping other people converts that money into real treasure. So I keep stacking real money, instead of buying paper, and I continue to stack "real treasure" in Heaven.

What has education done for me? I don't believe everything I hear. I look for the hidden motives. I follow the money. I know that some things are essential and some are constructed. Humans could choose all sorts of things to be money. PMs are the best money out there. Fiat is the worst. PMs are shiny and have an attractive heft. They can be formed into jewelry and look nice when displayed on skin of any color. People want the stuff.  Fiat money? Just like in Star Wars, "Republican Credits are no good out here!"

So a hefty number of members who have faith in God read and post here. I think almost all have faith in PMs as a store of wealth. Turd established this site to give what he has to the world--guidance on trading and prepping. He is storing up real treasure through his gift. But the site has costs. If we were all meeting at the pub on the corner to chat about markets each night, would we begrudge the proprietor to expect us to buy a drink? It’s all good with me--even when Turd's forecasts are off the mark. There is plenty of advice here to counter each forecast.

By the way, Krugman displays little real education and even less phronesis. He is not stupid, so I sense an agenda. And I don't trust Bernank’s socially constructed fiat. My phronesis tells me to beware and buy PMs instead. They just feel right.

Stock_Canines's picture

Two Questions

1. During twist, didn't the Fed stop easing? I thought, and I may be wrong, that the Fed balance sheet stayed relatively the same during the extent of operation twist. If they successfully kept the show going through that period without easing, what prevents them from doing the same now? Sure , they may have to engage in further easing down the road, but couldn't that announce an end to QE in March or June. They run the game, they make the rules. Imagine the impact to gold. If they announced an end to QE(even if temporary), could they break gold through 1525?

2. Turd, if the Fed and the cartel can get gold below 1525 by any means necessary, wouldn't they pull out all the tricks to do so? If gol broke that level, what do you think would be the implication? Would you begin to sell physical holdings if that were to occur? Would you hold off on buying more until we see if the bottom actually begins to form here?

sethleon's picture

Delivery default

Turd,

Can you speak more about the possibility of default on delivery?

Do you think that price has been smashed ahead of options expiry to discourage traders from taking physical delivery?

ctob's picture

Gold is money

Gold is money.  If you weren't in it for the money I would be concerned.

Ilya Repin's picture

Alll going to plan for me :)

¤'s picture

SPF-30 / TPF-100

Hopefully TF had a SPF 30 applied upon himself yesterday and he isn't all red and wrinkly and peeling all over the place.

It's nice to see he just applied some TPF 100 onto the site today.

And yes...TPF stands for Troll Protection Factor yes

hammerman's picture

hang tuff turdman

you are on the rite track.... our crooked gov will do anything to try and maintain their control to the very end... 

savagegoose's picture

Are people still trying to

Are people still trying to trade this for profit? profit in what?  dont forget gold= freedom. it doesnt matter the price, it matters you have gold.  If you are thinking ohh i made $1000 or lost $1000, you are still in their headspace.  dollars are the scam, the problem.  sure buy as low as you can, but dont stop buying.

Texas Sandman's picture

savage

Playing the paper to feed my stack.

I am BMs worst nightmare.

brokerk22's picture

Nice call so far Repin!

Way to stick your neck out.

Motley Fool's picture

texas sandman

You are braver than me. I don't dare play these crooked markets, even when the lure is more precious. 

Warren Peace's picture

Stacking

I have now stacked in larger quantities from last Thursday, then Monday, and then Tuesday.....So much so that I'm running low on dry powder. That probably means we get one more push to the downside ...lol

All in all I feel better having gotten rid of more dangerous paper. My LBD (local bullion dealer), after making my transaction yesterday, jokingly said if this keeps up it will break my bank. I responded that I am in fact establishing and strengthening my own bank. Since he was running low on silver bullion, maybe it is his bank that is broke, lol.  I have more Oz today than last week.....and I got progressively more oz/dollar than I could have last month. This is incredibly fun for me now! I think I have mastered my emotions, and am seeing with eyes wide open now ;-)

Anecdotally, we may be near the bottom because I noticed yesterday that my Libertarian friend who helped me at my LBD yesterday, who is also a silver stacker, was visibly rattled by the last take down. Not selling, but had a bit of a panicked look. I told him it was all paper games, and to BTFD. I'm actually feeling excited for some reason....somehow it just feels like the bullion banks are losing. They are the ones who seem so panicked, like a cornered animal. Still dangerous, but we have them cornered, and are closing on them with a ring of spears. It's just a matter of very little time now. Hold the line....and finish these sobs off!

murphy's picture

TF- Re: trolls

Although I don't believe that spending this much energy on trolls, it does look like fun

Our method of dealing with disruptive or destructive community members is simple: their accounts are placed in timed suspension. Initial suspension periods range from 1 to 7 days, and increase exponentially with each subsequent suspension. We prefer the term "timed suspension" to "ban" to emphasize that we do want users to come back to their accounts, if they can learn to refrain from engaging in those disruptive or problematic behaviors. It's not so much a punishment as a time for the user to cool down and reflect on the nature of their participation in our community. (Well, at least in theory.)

Timed suspension works, but much like democracy itself, it is a highly imperfect, noisy system. The transparency provides ample evidence that moderators aren't secretly whisking people away in the middle of the night. But it can also be a bit too … entertaining for some members of the community, leading to hours and hours of meta-discussion about who is suspended, why they are suspended, whether it was fair, what the evidence is, how we are censoring people, and on and on and on. While a certain amount of introspection is important and necessary, it can also become a substitute for getting stuff done. This might naturally lead one to wonder – what if we could suspend problematic users without anyone knowing they had been suspended?

There are three primary forms of secretly suspending users that I know of:

  1. A hellbanned user is invisible to all other users, but crucially, not himself. From their perspective, they are participating normally in the community but nobody ever responds to them. They can no longer disrupt the community because they are effectively a ghost. It's a clever way of enforcing the "don't feed the troll" rule in the community. When nothing they post ever gets a response, a hellbanned user is likely to get bored or frustrated and leave. I believe it, too; if I learned anything from reading The Great Brain as a child, it's that the silent treatment is the cruelest punishment of them all.

    I've always associated hellbanning with the Something Awful Forums. Per this amazing MetaFilter discussion, it turns out the roots of hellbanning go much deeper – all the way back to an early Telnet BBS system called Citadel, where the "problem user bit" was introduced around 1986. Like so many other things in social software, it keeps getting reinvented over and over again by clueless software developers who believe they're the first programmer smart enough to figure out how people work. It's supported in most popular forum and blog software, as documented in the Drupal Cave module.

    (There is one additional form of hellbanning that I feel compelled to mention because it is particularly cruel – when hellbanned users can see only themselves and other hellbanned users. Brrr. I'm pretty sure Dante wrote a chapter about that, somewhere.)

  2. A slowbanned user has delays forcibly introduced into every page they visit. From their perspective, your site has just gotten terribly, horribly slow. And stays that way. They can hardly disrupt the community when they're struggling to get web pages to load. There's also science behind this one, because per research from Google and Amazon, every page load delay directly reduces participation. Get slow enough, for long enough, and a slowbanned user is likely to seek out greener and speedier pastures elsewhere on the internet.
  3. An errorbanned user has errors inserted at random into pages they visit. You might consider this a more severe extension of slowbanning – instead of pages loading slowly, they might not load at all, return cryptic HTTP errors, return the wrong page altogether, fail to load key dependencies like JavaScript and images and CSS, and so forth. I'm sure your devious little brains can imagine dozens of ways things could go "wrong" for an errorbanned user. This one is a bit more esoteric, but it isn't theoretical; an existing implementation exists in the form of the Drupal Misery module.

http://www.codinghorror.com/blog/2011/06/suspension-ban-or-hellban.html

And these alternatives as well

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/02/getting-rid-of-comments/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/comment-policy/#more-87720

S Roche's picture

Philly Fed

BagOfGold's picture

Orange...I have to agree!...

MUDbone...I'm sure he will agree too!...The Turdite Warriors are back!!!...

Bag Of Gold

Texas Sandman's picture

Motley Man

Look at Murrey Math based on Gann) & fibonacci.  Going to the daily longer term model for a rebuttable presumption on where the day will go combined with these gives me confidence to do that.

I know everybody says these markets are manipulated, and indeed they may well be.  But watch  'em for a while.  They obey Fibonacci and Gann regardless.  And as I've noted many times here the past two weeks, there were very strong signs in the long term this collapse was going to happen.  I mean, before it actually did.  Very basic stuff like trending a MACD, and drawing basic trendlines will get you pretty far in terms of the big picture.

Cleburne61's picture

To all those who came to scoff

1) At our gracious host, and Turdville in general, these past few days, congratulations: you're my contrary indicators, and your antics of calling for $1200 gold and $22 silver confirmed that blood is in fact flowing, and these levels are screaming buys.

2) To all those who will remain nameless, but fancy they've superior wit and wisdom, who say literally dozens of times, "Don't kid yourselves, gold and silver are too manipulated, and will never be allowed to trade above $1925 and $50 ever again...but I still like them," congratulations: you've officially made my ignore list.  Some of you who used to offer real nuggets of information and experience, but now only show up on down days to toot your own horn about how prescient your calls have been are less than useless.  Whether you realize it or not, you've devolved into nothing more than a troll with lipstick.

3) To those running for the hills, panicked and soaked in their own urine: I'll take the other side of that trade.  I just finished stacking a tube of Freedom Girls yesterday, in your honor.  I only wish I could've stacked 10 of them.

4) To the hackers who keep taking down precious metal alternative media sites: don't you realize you're simply confirming what we already know to be true?  This is elementary "Art of War" stuff: the enemy only responds to real threats.  If you truly wanted to hinder your enemy in the age of instant knowledge, you'd keep ignoring us.  These DDOS attacks are digging a pit....in which you will fall intoBank on it.

5) Has anyone noticed that this month is shaping up to be a record February for silver eagle sales?  They've sold 2.5 million thus far(1 million more than last year) and we still have a whole business week to go.  In other words, January wasn't a "one off", as has been asserted...the demand is just stronger this year than last year.  The 20 metric tonne GLD Hooverfest yesterday?  The big guys, the connected ones with swimming pools of cash, know what's coming, they're buying everything you're dumb enough to throw at them.  If you're not bullish, you're not paying attention.

6) Glad to have you back TF. 

SilverFocker's picture

I was holding out

Yet the shiny got the best of me yesterday, as my lil LCS has 22 bucks of face in the real money and I could not resist.......It seems a young man and his Grandfather came in to sell some of Grandpas stash to help the young man buy a truck for work.......I glady backed mine in and picked it up @21 per Dolla.

I will now hold onto my remaining Fiat for the near future to trade either for more Shiny or the dull Lead when things in the gun world start getting some normalcy back.

On another note, I really am perplexed why the PM bugs get bent when these waterfalls happen.....you should be Happy, Happy Happy, trading for lower cost on the Shiny..........It is the End game we are getting prepared for......It may be close , it may not be, we all agree that it will happen in the near term of a few more years, so man up and own this for what it is , or just get the hell out of it and get on with life as you know it.

Texas Sandman's picture

scoffing

>

1) At our gracious host, and Turdville in general, these past few days, congratulations: you're my contrary indicators, and your antics of calling for $1200 gold and $22 silver confirmed that blood is in fact flowing, and these levels are screaming buys.<

I actually only called for $27.  I've been saying that for weeks.  And if it gets to $25-26, I'm in there with my tax refund check.

But most of my stack came at 850 gold and 17 silver.  So it's all good.

Exergy's picture

Pavlov's Dog - Training the Sheeple

If you own some physical...go look at it. ... I'll wait. Does it look any smaller today or feel less real?

IT IS THE ONLY THING THAT IS MONEY!

The last few weeks are just another inning in the game played out by the "house"...via their "agents" to educate the fools holding physical that they are wrong to be doing so...while the "house" is on the buy with unlimited capitol ...and further training the globe that nothing is amiss in the precious metals complex while reinforcing the established mantra that  its not the place for anyone but money management professionals.

Remember Pavlov's dog ...ring the bell - get fed?   How about this...crash the market repeatedly until all buyers who are not on the houses team leave the market.

why?

Going forward the ONLY way the "House" can back all the paper that is being printed is with hard assets!  Even fractionally...say 10 or 15% requires that they own the entire PM complex....or as near as they can get.

Once the market is cleared of rif-raff ... you own most of the physical longs ...in multiples of what is actually mined with the shorts backed by the government.  You then control the price and along the way you own or control many of the miners...the future source of the metal that is needed to control some of the expansion of the GLOBAL money supply.

How long will this take... does it matter?  The PM complex is maintaining is purchasing power relative to paper... stop and read that again!!   Alternatively panic...sell and hold currency...ummmmmmm..then what do you do with it?

If you need to trade because you need to trade... do yourself a favor...buy some silver today...sell half of it at 32 and the other half at 36 ...Leave the profit in metal and use the capitol to buy more on the way down again...rinse and repeat until we break upward...yawn.

Or simply buy something on sale and go back to watching Storage Wars or something equally mind numbing.

Sorry to be patronizing...but look around -

The entire global financial system is a giant Ponzi Scheme...the fools in Washington, Ottawa, London, Paris etc... make a career out of getting paid to overspend OUR money...and perpetuate the gig until they think up a new one...while the banksters in Basil play Monopoly to control the entire board. 

We can't change the political system and we can't all become central bankers.... wait a second...we can do that second part (in a micro way)... if we truly believe that the house is buying metal (and ALL the reports say so)...we just have to do what the house is doing and recognize that the last few weeks are just another chapter in how they buy low.

Turd: maybe we need a new word for those of us who are just doing what the house is doing? ...I smell a contest here!!  MicroBanksters, (MB's), Turdsters (T's)...?!

We pile our few coins and stay under their radar until they decide they have enough or the time is right to move to a different power structure of their design.

In the meantime those that own physical own the only real money in the world and the money that the future monetary system WILL be based upon....and along the way every bit of fiat your convert to metal will buy the same stuff in the new world order at the very least... possibly a lot more.

Just ranting because its frustrating to watch the panic and this is the place to shout because very few other places have an audience that undertands...much less listens.

I emailed Jim Sinclair recently and his comment to me was interesting: "gold is money, silver is excitement"...find your own balance but believe you are correct!

I hope you all feel so much better...I know I do...now  back to watching "ex wives of rock stars" and my all time "sheeple training" classic...Honey Bo Bo (God they have dumbed us down over this last generation!)

koan's picture

I do amuse myself

I do amuse myself sometimes:

Paid shills - sure seems like there's plenty trying their best on here. Do you think, to sound like they know what they are talking about, having to research and digest all the same news/issues/info most who come here do will actually begin to sink in and they'll start thinking for themselves, wake up and maybe even become secret stackers?!

We've all woke up one way or another, as a result of being paid to try and discourage those that are already awake would certainly fall in the most ironic of paths...

Turd, glad you're back. Slay some shills, it's your house. I don't like using the IU list as it leaves them unchecked and the not-so-resolute-visitor may be swayed/driven off which is their main objective.

Edward G's picture

Hmm

If my memory serves me rightly, this is at least the 2nd time there's been a big smash while you were on holiday!

I think Mervyn King is quite a good tell on things.... he has never hidden his dismay and despair over these years... the minutes show he and another guy voted for more QE...he really shows he thinks it's screwed.

I live in Asia, so PM's don't ever seem very left-field... and any number under $36 looks pretty much the same to me: an utter travesty.

It occurred to me that that ppl with no money (and Brits esp, no one of our generation I have ever known has ever owned a single stock/fixed income, only real estate) have little incentive to watch the financial news. They are pretty helpless, and they take the post-war welfare state and 'social justice' as givens. MMT looks quite attractive in general, even if incredulous.

I think the fiat states have scared the markets this week that they might be capable of co-operation, with the G20, and even the Chinese making those noises.

This is a UK-ish post (a long one for me), so I'll simply say 'Bollocks'                          -with respect to our friend of the same name!

ggnewmex's picture

TBTF

It is funny how the MSM refuses to acknowledge the obvious fact that QE is simply paying for the deficit spending going on. Goes to show that they are good at being told WHAT to write, and not much else.

I got to thinking relative to TBTF, specifically JPMorgue. As one reads Ted Butler, obviously extremely knowledgeable, we can surmise that they have an untenable, and increasing short position. My question, or statement would be this,

"If they are so closely tied to the Fed, what would stop them from simply having their positions "eliminated" by the Fed in the interest of "national security", thereby extricating themselves from this whole mess. Of course it would be technically illegal, but so is this grossly manipulative short position they hold."

Still hold, what I have not lost in phyzz, advocate for more. However, this just has me thinking that we will never see the price we think we should.

Comments welcome for discussion

all the best all

gg

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