The setup for the big trade

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Byzantium
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@ Argentus re Geopolitics

My understanding of the world, FWIW.

USA has had the aim of a unipolar world since WW2, wishing to be the sole superpower. This aim, is as legitimate to those factions in the US power structure who seek peace and security, as it is to the aggressive exploitative factions, and so the policy is without meaningful opposition.

As the USA busies itself of stripping Russia and China of allies, buffer zones and resource security, a pretext must be found for this undeclared war, and the twin reasons of counter terrorism and humanitarian intervention are the alibi.

Once China and Russia say 'enough is enough,' they must find some option other than direct confrontation to stop the US military & political salami slicing machine from slicing away yet further of their chess pieces. To add insult to injury, they themselves fund the salami slicing US military & political machine, through the dollar franchise.

Traditionally, pushback was through proxy war, but they also have the option of detonating the dollar. Those who say that this is an own-goal, overlook the fact that what might be painful for Russia and China, may in fact be the death blow to the dollar camp, and their military machine. In militaristic terms, this is victory over the enemy. The warning shots come not with bullets, but with demanding gold delivery, and by steam-rolling western banks at the comex if required, where the perception of the value of gold is set.

Time favours the underdogs, but the Dollar camp knows that, and so the underdogs must not be given that time; advantage has to be played while it is in hand. To whit, something big is indeed brewing. Syria, Iran, North Korea, Japan vs China, Japan vs Russia, and Arab springs, the momentum is building.

What happens in the Comex, is therefore a direct symptom of the state of the greater world, we agree.

RuNuts
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Thomas P.M. Barnett, "The Pentagon's New Map"

argentus maximus wrote:
About The Big Picture or my version of TBP: the old paradigm as espoused by Thomas Bartlett (Google "The Pentagon's New Map") and TPTB  is pretty much corporate-cronycapitalist-facist globalist consumerism vs anti globalist conservative religious-tradition aesthetic living which is basically contained and surrounded in the tribal un-westernized areas of Central and Sub-Saharan Africa and Islamist Asia. But they are wrong, or that is an older idea for public consumption and TPTB have since moved on.

This topic just become really interesting, hat tips of appreciation kind sir.

Thomas P.M. Barnett, "The Pentagon's New Map": http://www.esquire.com/features/ESQ0303-MAR_WARPRIMER

Blog: http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog

Map: http://thomaspmbarnett.com/low-resolution-map/

thedukes
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Argentus this lines up with your observations

Daily Sentiment Index on gold back at the all time low as of Friday  – 5% bulls left.

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Green Lantern
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I agree with Byzantium. 

I agree with Byzantium.  Continue including the geopolitical flash points for numerous reasons.   

A.  It's what you do and have been doing.  It matters not if we or anybody is able to make direct correlations at this point.  They are intrinsically intertwined.  Without the geopolitical "underbelly" we wouldn't be here looking at the charts.   Your appeal to me is that you consider the bigger picture.    Even if we do not see a direct correlation between events as reported in the MSM and price at this juncture, doesn't mean one won't appear.  Timing of events might not be due to total control of the MSM.  That's not the issue.  It's the sequence of events and emerging memes, and interconnectedness of them.

B. I agree with your assessment of the basic change in paradigm.  A I have written on the main blog about the geopolitical realignment that is being played out and stories like gold repatriation, bearer bond scandal, currency wars, hacking, emergence of the BRIC Nations, new currency agreements with China etc... all speak directly to the geopolitical realignment to a pre-WW1 time before the US positioned itself in the center of the EuroAsia basin and the formation of NATO with basis all over Europe and Asia.   And yes, Africa is the final frontier for gold and China is well entrenched.  Mali might be connected to German's repatriation request from US and France.   And the dispute between Japan and China also has deep implications that have not been told which I'll post on the main page.  Japan asked US to leave.  Robert Gates soon payed a visit as well as Hilary Clinton and her team since then Japan has been goating China with the US in the background to deal with currency wars and hacking.   The story happens over time.  People make the connection when more dots are in the picture. 

So helping the crowd is just doing what you do because you obviously know there is a connection.   I've been looking for a memetracker that already does that sort of work which tracks keywords in headlines.  there is a site with good research from Cornell at memetracker.com but it doesn't look as if the site is updated that states it tracks 900,000 stories.   Wish it was working but it's clear the headlines aren't random events unrelated.

I appreciate the good work and entertaining Q&A.  But because you have an audience, don't let it change the nature of your work. 

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@RuNuts ref Thomas Barnett

If you want to see where they were about 8-10 years ago when they were trying to get up to date after 911, you really need to watch Barnett's youtube video of the presentation of the same name Pentagon's New Map.

Take the long one, not the summary. It might take a couple of viewing sessions to get it all, but you will be glad you did.

It is extremely thought provoking material.

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argentus maximus
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@thedukes

Good question that. PM sent.

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Pining 4 the Fjords
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Time for the meat, AM

We are smack in the middle of your reversal target period. Is this the final washout or "hammer meets anvil"moment you were calling for?  To put it bluntly, where do you believe we are in the context of 'The Setup for the Big Trade' ?  And what specifically are you looking for to tell you it's time?

Thanks in advance from an inquisitive follower of your thread.

argentus maximus
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Pining 4 the Fjords wrote:We

Pining 4 the Fjords wrote:
We are smack in the middle of your reversal target period. Is this the final washout or "hammer meets anvil"moment you were calling for?  To put it bluntly, where do you believe we are in the context of 'The Setup for the Big Trade' ?  And what specifically are you looking for to tell you it's time?

Thanks in advance from an inquisitive follower of your thread.

Hi,

I'm just waiting for the couple of days to pass so everyone can see it printed on their charts. Or can see I'm dead wrong. If I'm wrong I'll take the heat. The advance detailed forecasts I make are kind of "asking for it", so sometimes I'm bound to be caught out. 

In this one I made the case for a major low coming up at a certain date 19 to 21 Feb, from a month out. The gold price has moved to the extreme lower edge of it's trading range on every timeframe except monthly on the exact date. Sure it's working! smiley

It's not complete yet.  In the sense that after (IF!!)price rises away from the low then we will be able to look back next month and say "That was a major low". We don't need that proof to trade, since we can use stops. All we need right now is to observe a failure after tomorrow to fall lower and I'm happy. Failure to follow through downwards after test perforating a support level would be very bullish IMO.

Where we are relative to when the massive rise will occur is a far more difficult question to answer. Probably not imminently due, but it is already a high enough possibility that I don't want to miss any rises from here on in case it gaps up and I get left out.

It bothers me that I am not sufficiently "long term stacked" for that scenario,and am therefore need to see it coming and due to limited capital I'm dependent  on swing trading into it. I swing trade hard as this thread probably suggests. Now I'm aware that "seeing it coming" are famous last words carved deeply on many traders tombstones! Not ideal, but we have to acknowledge our limitations as Clint Eastwood said in Dirty Harry.

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Byzantium
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@ Argentus

Your post just now was specifically about gold, and not silver, or was it about both?

cheers

Pining 4 the Fjords
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Thank you

I must admit that I thought of your "hammer meets anvil" analogy today while I was watching silver in real-time during the FOMC announcement. I was truly amazed at the massive volume of trade as a huge number sold their shares/contracts... but silver just sat there, hovering around 28.50 as equally massive buying ate up all of the FOMC selling.  The volume ticker kept climbing as massive exchanges took place, yet price was stable.  

If big shorts were going to cover, then this has certainly been a golden chance for them.  COT next week will be epic.  For what it's worth, I dipped my toe into the long side for the first time in weeks today (I have been in and out on the short side exclusively since just under 32) and am starting to build my position from here.  Will keep adding at intervals if we go down, and if we go up I will trade the chart.  We'll see. 

Thanks for your work here. 

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argentus, I think I can speak

argentus,

I think I can speak for most and say we appreciate your tremendous efforts and we stand to learn much from you.  No such thing as right or wrong in trading, just index of probability, much like the rest of life.:)  Today was well today, seen these kind of hits regularly following FOMC.  Much less frequently , it has gone the other way. 

I suspect the trauma of today will pass as people digest the massive distortion of the headlines, and we will be back to business very soon,  maybe even tomorrow.  Graphs of the last couple of years show that it takes 24 to 48 for the general market to rebound after FOMC.

argentus maximus
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Byzantium wrote: Your post

Byzantium wrote:

Your post just now was specifically about gold, and not silver, or was it about both?

cheers

Both I guess. They do seem to be a week or two apart from synchrony, as in the lows at end 2012,  21st Dec vs 4th Jan if I remember right, but close enough to consider both the same.

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Larry
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Make My Day and swing away

"If I'm wrong I'll take the heat.”

“I'm dependent on swing trading into it. I swing trade hard as this thread probably suggests.”

Hey AMax, what you are adding here is only good and truth as you see it, well told. You’re trying to figure it out and pass along your best to those that are invested and interested. For that, you, your effort and insight is greatly appreciated. Among the group that is paying attention, you will not take any heat for missing a call in this bizarre world and upside down market. Like Dirty Harry, you will be appreciated either way.

If your Signs say… swing away!

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@redwood

No offense RW, but you don't speak for me. I did not suffer any trauma today at all. In fact, I had an extremely profitable day. When you lose your bull bias, you may speak for me if you feel you must.

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BH, please read carefully. 

BH, please read carefully.  You often misunderstand my posts, I don't know how you do that so often.  I said for "most" and that was only in reference to our appreciation for argentus' efforts, not "trauma", as you will notice that is in a second paragraph, geesh.

JazzTalker
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here's a nice chart
 
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argentus maximus
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That looks like the work of Ron Rosen, of The Delta Society

That looks like the work of Ron Rosen, of The Delta Society.

I used Market Delta for a while as part of my own research, and it's a very interesting approach to trading from a timing perspective.

His website is here:

https://www.deltasociety.com/content/ron-rosen-precious-metals-timing-letter

I recommend that readers of this thread go there and click on the Free Sample Newsletter link. Ron made his first newsletter of 2013 available as a free download. If you are into metals and look at analogs, you need to read it, and consider Rosen's work.

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thatguy007
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@argentus maximus

What do you make of the current up tick in PMs... looks interesting to my eye

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@Argentus

Metals having a small jump....outside reversal??IS the correction over or we need to give it more time??

argentus maximus
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Hourly Euro Metal Cross

Hourly Euro Metal Cross charts presented with no comment:

One of many hourly time targets on the Silver-Euro

Hourly Gold-Euro:

My post #5 dated February 8th said all that's needed.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/268673#comment-268673

Now watch and wait.

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