Still Struggling With Silver Open Interest (updated for new CoT)

Maybe you can help me to make sense of these numbers?

I think you know that the current open interest situation has me perplexed. First of all in gold, since last Thursday, price has fallen by over $26 yet total OI has risen by over 6%, from 420,766 to 446,274. So, who is shorting so much that price is falling? Perhaps more importantly, who is on the other/buy side of those trades? Unfortunately, the deliberately opaque CoT will provide only a few clues.

But what really has me bugged is the OI of silver, specifically since late 2010. Why then?

  • QE2 was announced in early November of 2010.
  • It began in December and proceeded along at approximately today's QE∞ pace of $85B/month until June of 2011.
  • Silver rallied through November and December 2011. 
  • It corrected for three weeks in January 2011 before stopping at "Turd's Bottom".
  • It then rallied through March on speculative buying.
  • It spiked in April as fears of a "commercial failure" sparked Cartel short covering.
  • In late October of 2011, MFGlobal collapsed and took with it nearly $2B in clients assets as well as the integrity of the CME and the futures markets as a whole.
  • When QE2 ended in June of 2011, price was near $35. When QE∞ was announced in September of 2012, price was still near $35.

So, while keeping in mind the points above, kindly consider the data below:

DATE   PRICE   LSLONG   LSSHORT​   RATIO   COMM LONG     CARTEL SHORT   RATIO   TOTAL OI

11/2/10   $25       52,625         12,834         4.1               31,152                     87,200             2.8         158,633

1/4/11     $31        40,483        10,488         3.87            29,598                    79,349              2.68       136,931

1/25/11    $27       38,699        10,473         3.69            29,818                     72,964             2.45        125,229

3/29/11    $37      47,764         10,625         4.49            32,587                     87,882              2.7         138,486

4/26/11    $49      43,078         18083         2.38            35,763                     78,297              2.19        143,341

So, what do we see here? What jumps out at you? For me, it's:

  • The remarkably steady LargeSpecShort position. Steady, that is, until the 70% spike in April of 2011.
  • The consistency in the size of The Cartel long position, which only increased in the final days of the rally.
  • The Cartel gross short position was just as large in November at $25 as it was in late March at $37. In fact, compare the entire entry of 11/2/10 vs the entry of 3/29/11. The only changes are that total OI has fallen by 20,000 while price has risen by nearly 50%. Hmmmm.

What happened next is, of course, market histoire. The Sunday Night Massacre, five margin hikes in nine days, QE2 was replaced by Operation Twist, another 30% beatdown in September of 2011 and, of course, the collapse of MFingGlobal.

Now look at this. After a bottom last summer, price began to rally in advance of the QE∞ announcement in September. Here's where we stood then:

DATE     PRICE   LSLONG   LSSHORT​   RATIO   COMM LONG     CARTEL SHORT   RATIO   TOTAL OI

9/11/12     $34        41,371         9,889         4.18             32,206                   79,478               2.47       121,050

Picking up where we left off in 2011, what has changed? Not much.

  • The LargeSpecShorts are back to the average, around 10,000.
  • However, the LargeSpecLong, CartelLong and CartelShort categories are virtually unchanged.
  • And the total open interest is down by 20% or so but you'd have to expect that, post MFingG.

And now look at this, the CoT from last Tuesday:

DATE     PRICE   LSLONG   LSSHORT​   RATIO   COMM LONG     CARTEL SHORT   RATIO   TOTAL OI

2/5/13      $32        42,449         6,588         6.44            46,293                    98,239               2.12       151,512

Now what jumps off the page at you? Could it be this?

  • Since the announcement of QE∞, total OI has risen by 25% but price has fallen by $2.
  • LargeSpecLongs are pretty much where they've always been, in the low 40s.
  • LargeSpec Shorts are way down...to levels never seen before...but that just happened last week and I'm not yet sure what to make of it. A reporting error or reclassification?
  • But get a load of The Cartel long and short positions. The true outliers. They've added 14,000 longs and 19,000 shorts since last September.

So what the heck does all this mean? I don't know. I wish I did. The latest LargeSpec numbers and ratio are such an aberration that it suggests a sharp selloff is forthcoming to bring the net long ratio back to within historical "norms". But if that were to happen, it would likely have minimal impact on the comparative Cartel long and short positions and that would seemingly be where all the action is. And why the heck isn't price rallying? The Fed is printing money at the same pace as early 2011 but, instead of rallying, we're getting a selloff. Could this current selloff be an event similar to the selloff in January of 2011 which preceded a 3-month rally from $27 to $49? Back in January of 2011, The Fed had been printing for a month yet price was inexplicably falling and angst was very high. Sound familiar?

So, anyway, this thread is intended for your feedback and analysis. I'm making it a "sticky" in order to bring it to your attention. Comments on this topic only, please. Distracting comments on politics and chemtrails will be moderated.

I look forward to reading your comments.

TF

4:00 pm EST Friday UPDATE:

The new silver CoT is in and it's a DOOZY! Unless JPM can crash price down through $26, I highly doubt that they can shake out very many of the extraordinarily large Cartel gross long position. IF THAT'S THE CASE, this forced beatdown isn't going to go much lower.

For the week, the LargeSpecs reduced their net long by 3,700 contracts and this drops the net long ratio back to a more normal 4.94:1. And the small specs dumped 1,400 net longs, too. All of the action was again in the "Cartel/Commercial" space. They added an astonishing 5,889 longs!!! This brings their total to a has-to-be-a-misprint 52,182. Look back up this post...That is anywhere from 50% to 90% higher than the gross long position they held in 2011. All of this buying precluded any covering by JPM et al. They actually had to add naked shorts...another 740...bringing their total to the 2nd-highest I've ever seen at 98,979.

No wonder we saw the beatdown from Wednesday through today! Price has fallen by $1.18 since the survey on Tuesday but what have they accomplished? Of course, it's impossible to say but I'll leave you with this. At the survey, price was $1.18 higher and the total silver OI was 152,817. As of last night, total OI had grown to 154,364. Since OI was alos growing while price was falling during this last reporting week, the further growth in OI since suggests a continuation of the trend. Most likely, specs have continued to sell and get short while The Cartel longs have continued to grow.

WOW! Get some rest this weekend. If you thought this week was wild and crazy, next week may push you over the edge! It appears that we are witnessing history, in real time.

TF

DATE     PRICE     LSLONG     LSSHORT​     RATIO     COMM LONG       CARTEL SHORT   RATIO   TOTAL OI

2/12/13     $31          40,205           8,133           4.94              52,182                       98,979               1.90       152,817

345 Comments

Mickey's picture

Giving out coins

About 4 years ago I gave out coins from my small company. I bought 1 oz silver rounds and had them imprinted with company name on one side. 

Cost then all in was just over 20 bucks.

so that would have been a 50 PC increase. 

My guess is few of my clients have them now. I know a few tossed them away as being junk. 

So now I just send cards that a contribution has been made in their name.

silver66's picture

China Daily- Gold

Read today, wonder why they are putting this article out there?

http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2013-02/17/content_16228021.htm

Silver66

Green Lantern's picture

If the system were 100%

If the system were 100% completely rigged, how did we get from $4 to $30 (not to mention $48) over the last 12 years? I've never heard a convincing (or any) answer to this.

I don't know if my point of view will be convincing.

The idea of something be rigged doesn't imply that those who are rigging it have 100% control.  There is no system where there is a confluence of factors does one person or one force control the totality of the system.

The reason why gold and silver went up is because you woke up and the matrix had to react to your waking up.  Before everyone woke up, it was relatively easy to make money in the metals. The propagation of the metal sites in recent years Silver Doctors 2011, TFMetalsreport 2011/10, Zero hedge 2009? represented an increase in the awareness of the general public toward the value of gold.

the control matrix made changes to accommodate your hunger for gold.   Mercantile Exchange and Comex merged, Commodity Futures Moderininazation Act. The London gold exchange (located in Belize) closed. Who knows what they did? Last five years, we have seen one change after another including going digital in the exchanges to facilitate more control. Probably endless laws and regulations that contribute to the changing of how the market is rigged.   Rigging the markets is nothing new.  the whole basis of TA founded by Dow was that the market is rigged.   the rigging and regulation of markets today is much different than in the 1920's.  However, the hypothesis remains the same.  That markets can only be controlled for a time period.    Those who believe that it can manipulated forever come to that conclusion through emotions for there is no system that occurs in nature or among humans where that has ever be true or will ever be true.  And that includes systems where power and control are the dominant forces.   FDR secretary of the Treasury wrote a book called "Power" which I've mention a few times.   Case history upon case history demonstrates how power and control can run for a time period but eventually the individual or persons self destructs.  
 
As you began to wake up, the matrix and reacted  by changing it's methods and the nature in the way it operated. The banks were insolvent in the 90's and Greenspan began the tradition of bailouts. They changed the yield curve for easy borrowing. Borrowed the Yen to pay their bills and they began borrowing gold which probably has been rehypothicated since the 60's to pay for US expansion policies covert and less covert.
 
The cartel was created to manage the price of gold. They got scared in the 70's. Since then the fundamental of the economy, and everybody waking up to the realities of fiat debasement made greater competition for gold by regular investors trying to take it away from the Central Banks who had to use more and more it to pay bills. The system morphed again.
 
 At first all it needed was the use of perception, however, that is less and less effective because eventually somebody wakes up and yells violets aren't blue and the emperor has no clothes on.    The Creature from jekly island needs part 2 to deal with how the control matrix has morphed. The early controls were not sufficient to stop the price from rising, and we continue to see the war for control continue to escalate.   This points to an immutable law that those in power, do not have absolute power.   No such thing exists on earth.
 
Gold went up because of demand. And it will go up for the some reasons, however, every step will be much more dificult like a marathon runner who is in his 26th mile has to make exponentially more effort than he did at the 1st mile. Some are  writing that gold could go into a bearish trend. i just see it as an escalation of control because the war has gotten out of hand and the levies are being reinforced day by day but at some point they will break. However, the war is causing great angst among investors who in their private moments question the wisdom of all the gold bugs.  
The numbers and charts don't mean anything when your emotions get out of control and you look at your account and they are screaming at you "holy shit, I'm going broke"
 
There is confusion and distortion everywhere in the MSM and in the alternative media. We don't know who are the good guys. Some of the good guys are said to be puppets for the bad guy.   No longer can you just be an investor that reads a newsletter and doesn't question it.  That's right hard work.
 
Nobody is certain when the levies will break and the waters will breach the banks. Many still on low ground saying, see, it all looks good from here. Predicting when a chaotic system will breach is near impossible.   However, physicists now that to disturb or bring any system to critical mass, it can be the act as small as a butterfly flapping it's wings.  This is known as the butterfly effect. 
 
So as smart we are as a group, nobody can predict where that butterfly will enter the system, when, and how it will effect the system.  Even if we are able to predict the behavior of a small group of power individuals, we cannot predict people's reactions with great specificity, nor other factors being introduced into the sytem.  But all it takes is a butterfly.  Financial markets might not be any less complex than weather systems.
 
The butterfly effect is a term used in chaos theory to describe how small changes to a seemingly unrelated thing or condition (also known as an initial condition) can affect large, complex systems. The term comes from the suggestion that the flapping of a butterfly's wings in South America could affect the weather in Texas, meaning that the tiniest influence on one part of a system can have a huge effect on another part. Taken more broadly, the butterfly effect is a way of describing how, unless all factors can be accounted for, large systems like the weather remain impossible to predict with total accuracy because there are too many unknown variables to track.
 
 
 
 
¤'s picture

silver66

Thanks for the link yes

That's an enormous amount of consumption and production for one year. Wow!

edit: GL yes

Gold Buffalo's picture

Silver the next 3 weeks

silver66's picture

Awakening a Family Friend

I enjoyed the comments about dealing with friends and families and if they are aware about honest money and central planning.

Back in October 2012 Silver66 Jr was in a hockey tournament in Detroit. I drove and took his best buddy and his father with us for the weekend. His buddy's dad is a MBA,LLB and university professor. He now teaches in the US at a prestigious college. He grilled me all, the way down to Detroit and all weekend and all the way home. When I say grill, I mean he was genuinely interested in precious metals and my thinking on economics (which happen to be Austrian) and world politics that were contrary to what he heard from his peers and his formal teaching.

He asked me for books to read and I gave him a couple(one was the creature from Jeckel Island), directed him to TFMR and Zerohedge. I continued to chat with him at hockey games and would always tell him of my recent youtube viewings or good comments on TFMR.

In December he said he had finished reading a good book on gold and would I like to read it, I said absolutely. He started to ask how do you buy gold, he was genuinely interested.

3 weeks ago I was at a game and I had a gold maple in my pocket that I had not lost yet, I made a point to let him hold it and had a good discussion.

Last night I am at Jr's game and I pull up beside Professor in stands. I hand him my Keep Calm and Slave On coin I just got as I was excited about it.He got the symbolism on the coin and smiled. He starts right into conversation about how he has sent a letter to his Colleges pension committee asking why they have no allocation to Gold or Emerging Markets.It was great to listen to him rail on about how locked in their way thinking economic professors are. He stated he felt gold was the least risky asset right now. Then he dropped a bombshell on me, he asks if I have heard of an economist named Hayek, he has ordered 4 books by him. I asked if one was Road to Serfdom and I got a surprised look. He was like a kid in a candy shop telling me all about Austrian economics, it was exciting to see someone realizing there are other theories and thoughts out there and then exploring them.

It gets better, he then asks if I could take him around to a couple of the coin shops I frequent as he wants to understand the stacking process.

It gets better yet, his son that goes to the same university as eldest Silver66 Daughter and is taking economics. Prof has exposed him to Austrian thinking and he has taken to it like a duck to water.

You never know who will get the message and who will let it pass. It sure has been fun to watch this awakening.

I guess we change our countries thinking one person at a time

Silver66

Mickey's picture

Changing thinking

It will come suddenly for most. 

The disability portion of social security runs out of trust assets ( only treasuries anyway) in 2016 and Medicare trust is gone  in 2020, or earlier. 

That will be the wake up call, as by law they have to cut benefits  by 20 percent.

then no more lies.

tmosley's picture

alan

The reason is that back then they weren't so desperate.  They don't really care about the price, they care about their stock of metals and keeping everything nice and "normal".  

The threat to their stock of silver only came relatively recently, with many determined longs standing for delivery.  They had to pull a lever of control that they have never used before, outright confiscation of a brokerage house and its client's assets, ie MF Global.

Price is only important to the extent that it drives public awareness, as the public will be the entity that destroys the silver market.  If they can keep its rise about even with the stock market, they can dismiss it publicly as no big deal, if it is talked about at all.  

I am certain they have tried to suppress awareness among the large gold holders as well, which worked well UNTIL RECENTLY.  Nothing brings more attention than evasion, and the Fed's refusal to allow Germany to audit the gold they have deposited with them is like carving "We don't have your gold, Love, The Fed" on the surface of the moon with a giant laser.

alan2102's picture

Reply to Green Lantern, re: "100% Comletely Rigged"

Green Lantern: "The idea of something be rigged doesn't imply that those who are rigging it have 100% control".

No. But the comment I was responding to said, explicitly, that the system was "100% completely rigged", i.e. strongly implying, if not saying outright, that control is total.  And many other comments say as much. 

I AGREE that the system is rigged. Just not "100% completely". Phrases like "100% completely" suggest that the manipulators operate the system  as one would operate marionettes, with total control.

GL: "The cartel was created to manage the price of gold."

I AGREE.  It has been a managed ascent, all the way. I agree with everything you say.

Green Lantern's picture

There are no

There are no absolutes. 

Beware of those who profess absolute certainty.  

The Great Wizard of Oz's greatest trick is creating illusions from behind a curtain.  His dials, and buttons put on a great

show, but it's more smoke and mirrors than substance.   Dorothy has pulled back the curtain.  They don't like being exposed

Colin Caffeine's picture

Green Lantern

Are you absolutely certain there are no absolute certainties?

silver66's picture

Golden Jackass

I signed up for his newsletter a couple of weeks ago, have not been disappointed with reading back issues and Januarys. Just got a e-mail notification of a new letter up on his website for subscribers. I am a few paragraphs in and it is awesome. I have to file it , to finish later (aarrgghh) as family duties call

Enjoy your sunday Turdites

Silver66

silver007's picture

im new here

can someone tell me who are the cartels?  i've shorted silver before and now i'm loading up on physical pm.  thanks

Puck T. Smith's picture

@Colin Caffeine: I wasn't going to go there.

"Are you absolutely certain there are no absolute certainties?"

I thought that was kind of funny myself, but it just didn't seem worth it at the time.  I believe that's what they call a performative contradiction.  One of my favorites is when post-modernists claim language has no inherent meaning.  My response is "You're correct, it does."

Colin Caffeine's picture

@Puck T. Smith

Ah, performative contradiction! I like it!  I didn't know what it was called.

Yes, if you can persuade the populace that language has no meaning and it is impossible to be certain of anything, you at once stifle all thought and discussion and hence neutralise all opposition.  And these ideas are bizarrely prevalent amongst the supposedly alternative media and anti-establishment types.  I suppose a distrust bred out of the continuous lies and misinformation from media etc, spills over too far the opposite way.  But believing nothing is no better than believing everything.   The best thing is to 'test all things and hold to that which is true.'

Turd Ferguson's picture

The Cartels are the major

MODERATOR

The Cartels are the major bullion banks, which act collusively to control and manipulate price.

Response to: im new here
¤'s picture

silver007

Welcome aboard!

Green Lantern's picture

I thought it I'd leave it

I thought it I'd leave it alone and not dwelve into the realm of the metaphysical, and existential arguments.  But since this is now the third thread down and most people have visited it at least once, I'll play.

This is the oldest existential argument in the book.  The arguement always divides nicely between left and right brain thinkers and yes God and no God. I'll try to stay away far from the latter.  You both would ascert that  I am trapped in my own paradox for I cannot advance an argument with an inherent inconsistency.  

  And that's just not the case, never has been.  from Einstein to Heisneberg to all the modern  physicists ie heisenbergs "uncertainty principle" and "the observer effect. "  the arguement you are trying to advance is Newtonian that two realities can't co-exist if they are paradoxical.  End of arguement.    Not really because it brings you into a left brain conundrum and we know that no logical arguement can explain the results  from the famous double split experiment and similar which brings us to there can't be any certainty

Newtonian and classical physics has no way to explain the dual nature of the electron, it exists as a particle in a certain time and space when observed,.  when not observed it exists as a wave function.   Introduce the measurement problem of quantam physics which is how does one collapse the wave function?

The double split experiment demonstrates the fundamental limitation of the ability of the observer to predict the results and the fundamental problem of trying to explain a paradox that by old standards can't be true.

So based upon the same logic you are using, the true nature of the universe cannot exist because it contradicts each other. 

The central thesis of  Zen is based on one paradox that everybody here who is scratching their head has had to deal with at sometime in their life in some endeavor.   I'll call it the law of reverse effects just a matter of reference. .   A good book is Zen and the Art of Archery.   Basically says, that the harder you try to achieve something, the further you get away from achieving it.  "the more obstinately you try to learn how to shoot the arrow for the sake of hitting the goal, the less you will succeed in the one and the futer the other will recede"  I'm certain anybody that has ever taken their gun to the range understands this principle.  Same with golf and a 100 other endeavors.  Walk across a 6 inch beam 2 feet from the ground, no problem.  100 ft in the air, the harder you try to stay on the beam, the more you fall.  the best way is not to try and you won't fall. 

So back to the original statement, how can I ascert something to be absolute when no absolutes exist.  the same way I can ascert that the electron is both a particle and a wave.  I am operating in a different model of the universe.

Puck T. Smith's picture

@GL, I was just having fun.

@GL, I was just having fun.  However, I do think objective truth can be established.  The problem with trying to apply the insights of quantum mechanics to the macro level, where you and I live and breath, is that the fuzziness of the quantum level only exists on the quantum level.  At the level where we are the wave functions have long since collapsed.  It is marvelous and mind expanding to contemplate that the matter is mostly empty space and that reality may be no more than waves of light in the void, but as a practical matter bullets and speeding trains are real and deadly and you can't live on light; an occasional hamburger is necessary as well.  Better yet, a bacon cheeseburger.  :)

silver66's picture

GL- great comment

Being an avid golfer, I realize I have to try hard not to try hard wink

Silver66

Green Lantern's picture

@Puck,  I know it was in good

@Puck,  I know it was in good fun and caffeine's comment gave me a chuckle too.  However, I stand by those comments as people seek for ways to navigate this dense forest of analysis and speculation as to what is going on in the world.    On a less existential level, the words "I don't know" are three of the hardest words for people to utter, yet the most honest.  If more of the metal luminaries asserted this truth more often, I suspect there would be alot less frustration especially toward KWN.   But it is one of Rick Rules favorite lines, "I am not God, how do I know" 

I would also suggest that what happens at the quantum level effects our daily life more than most recognize and it is indeed possible to bring those realities into everyday life and put it to use for greater "success" or at a minimum, peace of mind.  I do in a very real and concrete way use these principles in everyday life and have taught others how to even some guy on TF who was having some problems.  Not sure how well it worked for him because he disappeared. 

My Zen example is a concrete way to put the observer effect into work.   You do it everyday.  Waiting in a crowded airport and the flight is delayed you suffer as you watch the clock go tick, tick, tick and no plane.   This is the same syndrome which is happening among investors.  Get lost in a great novel or piece of music and all of sudden you loose perception of time, and the same wait becomes tolerable and goes by in a flash.  This is exactly the observer effect at work.  One of many analogy's.

But to bring this back to the level of logic and address caffeines question within the closed box that he meant it, even as a joke, his question references my internal feeling state.  My statement there are no absolutes, referred to outside systems.  Be-aware of these states is not absolute or certain, just a suggestion.  So from a logic point of view, my statement might not at all be paradoxical considering the frame of reference that was implied.  On another level, in my years on this planet, I've not encountered any instances of absolute certainty as a sign of accuracy. 

It was a fun a tangent.  At least for me.  Caffeine might not have gone down this rabbit hole if he knew where he would take us anymore than Bollocks would have said violets aren't fuckin blue if he knew he'd get so much flack in good fun.    But hey, this is not your average audience you are dealing with.  If it were, it wouldn't be as much fun.  I'm absolutely certain. 

Green Lantern's picture

One more

Since this is a favorite subject and we are moving into open respectful forum while Turd is away.  forgot to address the bullet and the train as a practical manner.  The answer is yes duck and get out of the way UNLESS you operate in a different paradigm and that paradigm is congruent through all levels of your being.  

Scientists don't know what gravity is.  They know basically how it acts, but really nothing more about it.  Many state that gravity is a result of consensus reality but unless you are congruent with that reality through all levels of your being, than what you believe is worthless.   If you jump, you are gonna die.

I believe all matter is just light waves in empty space.   I have a great certainty regarding that postulate but I am not congruent on all levels since unlike Neo in the matrix, I can't duck bullets without proper notice.

The better question is how could the collective here on Turd use principles of quantam physics to change the price of gold and silver?    I was thinking to open a forum postulating what we would have to do and the principles we would have to invoke and then get the mass majority to try the experiment for a month to see if the group mind could effect the price.  I believe we could but I think it's too far down the rabbit hole for many.   I'm not that brave plus I'd have to give a 101 quantam physics course and it's just too much damn work. So  I suggest, keep reading the experts analysis like Sinclair.  I bet you a gold coin, he is familiar with these principles since he uses all that Fibonacci stuff  and into all that metaphysical eastern stuff.

Mickey's picture

French curves

Seem to be one of sinclairs fav tools

Byzantium's picture

Buckling under the weight

Pack it in you lot; leave old threads be. My computer is groaning under all these threads. Combined with all the other active threads & forums, ZH, e-mail, news feeds, trading accounts and so on, I typically have over 40 tabs open, and that's not because I'm laissez faire but in spite of me trying to keep it tight.

Like Achmachat said once, all personal computers seem to get inexorably slower through time, even though you clear the cookies and the cache. Are there any other quick fixes? 

Hammer's picture

I use this each time I shut

I use this each time I shut down. Ccleaner works for me :)

https://www.piriform.com/ccleaner

Green Lantern's picture

Here ya go Bryzatium.  I have

Here ya go Bryzatium.  I have your solution.    Stop visiting old threads.  I thought it was just a few slackers left behind.  Might have to start veering off topic on last weeks threads if I knew you guys were going to follow me back here.

Byzantium's picture

Looks like destiny...

Surrounded by a dozen screens!

Thanks for the link Hammer; I'll check it out.  yes

Colin Caffeine's picture

@ Green Lantern

No, what I am espousing is the principle of non-contradiction, that is, a thing cannot both exist and not exist at the same time and in the same respect, or, a statement cannot both be true and not true at the same time and in the same respect.  Your original statement contradicts this principle.  However, the examples you gave to justify your statement do not violate the principle and therefore are completely unrelated and unhelpful to your cause.

If it is easy to cross a beam placed on the ground but difficult to cross a beam at a height of 100 feet it is because the two things are not the same.  It is perfectly understandable that the imminent prospect of death would make the legs tremble, the knees weak, the breathing and heart rate violent and irregular, and make the task countless times more difficult.  The two examples, though the same in some respects, are immeasurably (for who can measure the fear or consequences of death?), different in other respects.

The example of the golfer is no more relevant than the other example.  Why human beings react adversely to pressure (even self-imposed pressure), might be a bit of mystery but we all know it is true.  Perhaps the golfer who knows he has a problem with his backswing concentrates too hard on it to the detriment of his follow-through?  Perhaps his backswing gets worse the more he concentrates on it because he is trying to consciously adjust his muscles when years and years of unconscious muscle use means that his sub conscious is much better at controlling his muscles than his conscious?  Who knows? But it is nothing more than an apparent contradiction, not a real one.

Now, the quantum physics example is not something I know anything about to be honest, but just going by what you've said, I don't really see how that supports your position either.  Assuming the observed facts to be accurate (which is a fairly big assumption), and that the conclusions reached are also accurate, you say that the electron acts differently under different conditions, namely whether it is being observed.  That is certainly strange, wonderful and inexplicable with our current understanding, but you say yourself that it acts differently under different conditions.  Why observation affects an electron is certainly beyond my explanation but it doesn't, in itself, violate the principle of non-contradiction.  Perhaps it isn't the observation that affects the electron but something else, as yet undiscovered or not understood that is present under the one condition and not the other.  I've no idea, but what I am certain of is that I am not going to throw out the most basic principle of existence and rational thought, upon which all knowledge and wisdom is based, on the likely misinterpreted results of an experiment conducted on those things that are at the very limits of human ability to measure and understand and that scientists themselves hesitate to pronounce definitively on.  And, frankly, from your brief explanation of it there is no need to either.

Colin Caffeine's picture

Sorry, Byzantium!  But now it

Sorry, Byzantium!  But now it has started I can't walk away until everyone agrees that I'm right!wink

Byzantium's picture

@ Colin Caffeine

I'll have to abort the thread in advance of your moment of glory, my cpu is swooning.

Cheers to all!

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