The setup for the big trade

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indosil
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@Argentus

i don't intend to compare..but Trader Dan is a respectable & renowned name...listening to his interview & reading his blog...it seems He thinks that Gold & Silver are going nowhere & he trashes people who are saying that Gold & Silver will explode to the upside in Two Weeks....His opinion not mine..he also goes on to say that Hedge Funds have the smallest position in Gold in 4 years.....

What do you make of this Argentus....please i am not comparing you with him....i just need an opinion to increase my knowledge repertoire ..

Warm Regards

Indosil

argentus maximus
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indosil wrote:Thanks.Iam

indosil wrote:
Thanks.Iam gripped. Unfortunately,I didn't receive any reply.sad

Kindly resend it if you can. Warm Regards Indosil

My reply "disappeared" when I hit "send" I guess. Retyped and sent just now.

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Now this is as I see things

Now this is as I see things unfolding, and of course I may be totally wrong. It is my present strategy for next week, until it begins.

* on 19th-21st Feb many markets will reverse, with a major % movement following after the reversal. The selling will stop. A new support line will appear at the price level that price happens to be at, that day, and the market will be unable to break that new support level. After it tries and fails to break it, it will trend away in the other direction, upwards.

* on the same date a few markets may break out and continue their existing move to double it. If gold and silver are part of that group of markets it will be obvious because the line I described will be broken, and the trend is down. I DO NOT EXPECT THAT BUT IT IS THE STOP.

* forget the fiscal cliff, sequester, all political stuff, all news. it is theater, BS, fiction, a play to entertain those easily manipulated

* Yes. Trader Dan is a good technician. One of the best.  He analyzes only what is already on the chart. I listen to him in his podcasts and read his blog. His opinion is high quality opinion IMO.

This reply is early . It is made before some vital hints have been received from the market, but you have it today, as is, because I decided it is possible to answer your question now.

I mentioned 1625 and 1609 on Friday when it was coming down through 1628 I think. The 1609 level contained the weeks descent. If it goes early the coming week, I'll look at lower support levels. But only if it breaks.

.

Reminder: The opinions expressed here are as described in an earlier post, personal opinion. Due your own due diligence. Get professional advice. Past track record is not a predictor of future success. (so say the laws of regulation so it must be so). This is for instruction and discussion purposes only. It is possible to lose greater amounts than those invested or traded in financial markets. Only risk funds you can afford to lose. 

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Awaiting the Real Great

Awaiting the Real Great Rotation

So why then have we seen such lackluster results from gold and silver thus far under the Fed's latest QE3 stimulus program? This is due to the fact that gold and silver typically have not led when a new QE stimulus plan is launched. Instead, stocks have been the first to move higher. But after a couple of months, the capital that was initially flowing into stocks has rotated into the precious metals. This is a key potential development to watch for in the days and weeks ahead.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1199661-it-s-gut-check-time-for-gold-and-silver

Great piece for all PM investors.

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@ Argentus

Thank you for the response, and a big apology on my part for my earlier careless wording. Your English of course is impeccable. I had sensed a quirkiness in it though (in a positive sense of course) that reminded me of many well-educated continentals who I have met, who spoke perfect English but who also used it in a stylish and distinct manner, that marked them as different. Well, like many Irish before you, you are gifted with words and have your own expressive style, that's for sure!

Anyway, 'Another' was the grand-daddy of the modern gold-bugs, who predicted gold's pending meteoric rise around about the late 1990's I think, when gold was actually in its worst doldrums. He wrote anonymously on the Kitco forums as 'Another,' and predicted a financial re-set, including such noteworthy nuggets as:

  • All paper financial assets will burn.
  • Gold's revaluation will happen once, possibly overnight, and it will be enough for a lifetime.
  • Follow in the footsteps of 'giants,' for they see what is coming and they lead the way.
  • In strong hands, gold lies very still (paraphrasing, it is not traded or known of; it is quiet, secret wealth).

When he stopped writing, the reins were later taken up by somebody called 'Friend of Another,' (FOA) and latterly by Friend of Friend of Another (FOFOA).

Cheers

Byzantium. 

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Ho ho...fascinating material.

Ho ho...fascinating material. My brain is much too weak to add anything of substance. Instead I will generally observe in silence :)

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I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild

Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell

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@Byzantium

Hi Byzantium

Your detailed response is appreciated. smiley I'd never have figured the FOA, FOFOA connection.

Cheers

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RuNuts
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This is a bookmark...

8,721 views.

/Silence doesn't equate a lack of attention.

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@argentus

Thanks for your eye-catching work on this forum. I am among the many watching and waiting, wondering whether your "methods are ... unsound". Either way they represent an absorbing view, and at least the insights into how the BBs are likely to game the PM markets in this zero-interest world are convincing. 

I'm holding off with funds at the ready. Let's see what these next weeks bring. 

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Argentus maximus

Hi Argentus, the day you joined, I was online by chance and was browsing through TFMR. What got my attention to your profile was the profile picture and name. I searched for your names meaning and later read your post but that day I could not understand much by looking into your charts as I only understand Gold silver charts and other options are not of interest as I am not from USA where I can trade in the tickers / etf's / stocks that people have option to trade.

Now I think I missed a lot which I should have tried to understand. I am 50% into the long trades already that I am holding and will buy other 50% only when the things appear to be happening as per your view. Thanks for posting your views which have helped me not to capitulate this day and gave me strength to hold on. Thanks to TURD too for his views that I was holding no position last Monday and started nibbling from Wednesday.

Lets see how the future turns out to be.

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AM

Im just curious, I'm not a chartist or an expert in any sense.  I'm in business so my question to you is=does any of the current situation/pattern have any similar pattern to the gold market over the the recent 12 years.  There are many folks that indicate that "we've seen this before".  So in the model that you use to evaluate where G & S are moving toward, have  you overlaid any other time period to evaluate if this is a similar trend in another timeframe.  

Does history really rhyme.  Also, have you looked at the time period 79-80 to see if the same pattern is occurring in the charts.   That would be an interesting overlay.  Some are indicating that what is happening now has happened before.  So does your model allow you to capture the spirit of this trend

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@JazzTalker

The answer to every single question you asked is yes!

For an example ... the 3 year cycle in Gold is pretty suggestive of current market action. Here it is in red with a trend added to make it track the bull market better:

As you can see, it is suggestive, there are periods when it does not correlate but there are other periods where it does.

After a green line it has been useful, but after a blue line it has temporarily been inactive and not so good. Recently it has been good.

Market cycles seem to come and go, which makes them difficult to deal with, but they can be helpful, so a part of my market model  watches all cycles, both in and outside the market. It is a macro part of the model that attempts to measure money flow between markets. Like players going in crowds from the blackjack tables to the roulette in a casino, there is usually something that is "hot". Recently it has been bonds.

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@JazzTalker part 2

But when you mentioned "overlay" I think of the fractal overlaying technique, which takes an analog piece of past chart action, irrespective of the timescale, and just looks for the same shape to appear in the price line.

We do not have to go back decades to find one. There is one here right now in the Gold chart if we place daily on an overlay of weekly chart of the same, Gold. This fractal looks quite nice and the general trends seem to match well, between the two timeframes, if days are counted as weeks.

Compared to the timecycle view in my post above, this is rather less bullish for the blastoff now and go to the sky traders, as it suggests that we have a rise coming, which is nice, but another fall after it to put up with, or sell out of.

Like cycles in time, the fractals seem to work well until suddenly they don't any more. You can find a piece of price in the past to match anything if you look hard enough. And yet, when it does match, you have (or think you have .. ) a roadmap to provide trading guidelines.

Sure I look at fractals too, but like cycles, they must be forgotten when the rubber meets the road, and the trade is on. Only the realtime performance of the trade matters once it is on.

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EUR/Gold

This morning Wile-E-Coyote (the gold price) , after falling 27 floors, hit the flagpole above the foyer and is bouncing up and down for a while.

No reason to change gameplan or  our outlook visible in  the chart.

Euro/Gold Cross chart presented, it's pretty much looking the same but with different numbers as Comex Gold.

We bounced of of 1200, haven't been able to muster enough energy to challenge overhead resistance at 1220 or 1245.

Probably will have a go at 1220 and a bit more after the Globex cowboys arrive at the corral in sufficient numbers.

Price is contained by the sharply down trendline off the 14th and 15th highs. Which trendline should likely be broken by the sideways trading range, and a little spike up towards it's endpoint.

Still bearish. Watching silver hard, as I have reasons to think it just might bottom and come up a couple of days before gold does.  I wouldn't want to miss that, and that's part of why I did a partial silver purchase late last Friday. But the target low period has not been arrived at. So I am still a bear.

Long term longside traders should be getting interested from now on for a few days. Possibly  looking at declining trendlines with a view to setting up buy signals as and when they get perforated.

Intraday price charts are now beginning to fill in the data for this weeks (hoped for) price movements. The April Gold is now suggesting 20th in one particular fibonacci forecast ... we'll soon see.

That's the best I've got for now.

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@Argentus

Buy Signal Early Awaitedenlightened

JazzTalker
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Nice

Interesting stuff. very. Im curious why Jim Sinclair keeps calling for this up trend.  He did say hold on and defend yourself before the down.  He is strong in his conviction. Wont ask many more questions now just will watch, but what are your thoughts about jims call.  thanks for your responses.  Very very interesting

 

The Greatest Business Opportunity Of The Millennium

 

Dear CIGAs,

The gold mining business will be looked back on in time as the greatest business opportunity of the millennium. That which polite groups look on today as an investment pariah will outperform the tech stocks of 2006-07 and hold their price levels rather than crashing like a South Sea bubble.

Today you got insight from CIGA Patrick on the essential tool gold has been to central banks, a hint of a final price on gold and why it takes almost a generation to return gold to its rightful owners, the Germans, who have made that request of the US Treasury and Fed. That is an article that you should print, read and re-read as it is essential to your understanding of the Golden End Game.

Lars, our investigative reporter in the field of economics, published a long interview full of good reading and fact, but the following is in my opinion something you must print read and read again.

My purpose is to teach you practical monetary science in terms of the Golden End Game certain to occur and thereby transit you from this time of evolution of money into the future safe and sound. The present reaction of the gold price in the market today is almost comical if you know what is in store and in fact taking place right now.

The mark to market of gold that is taking place on at least half of the globe is the beginning of a ground swell that will in the cash market for gold provide the means of balancing the balance sheets of the worst offenders of the exponential growth in debt up to today and well beyond.

Those who think the Goldmans or Morgans are stupid and clumsy are the ones demonstrating those traits. I see and know the same things these greatest of all time manipulators of price see and know. This is 1979 in the gold market right before the greatest price appreciation took place over the shortest period of time then. The most money over the shortest period of time in the gold bull market of the 70s was not made by the gold crowd but rather by the mega powers of Establishment Wall Street after doing the same things they are now doing.

The gold price can be pushed around like any market can be, but the purpose is to take away yours, increase theirs and then do exactly what is being done now on the upside.

In years to comes you will dismiss all my efforts based on my $3500 and beyond number. The reason for this is that number will have only been a start in the gold price towards the new era of industrial expansion based on sound money and major nation’s balance sheets having been balanced by gold.

Note that even UBS hinted at that last week. I would post their article but every time I do I am handling lawyer’s letters screaming about copyrights. One wonders how many people I am teaching the end game to?

 
redwood
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http://fxtrade.oanda.com/anal

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/commitments-of-traders

Argentus, wonder if you could comment on this chart.  Is it compatible with your current views?

redwood
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Don't know how the above link

Don't know how the above link appears, but if nec'y use the drop box as I am looking at silver. Thanks.

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redwood wrote:

redwood wrote:
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/commitments-of-traders

Argentus, wonder if you could comment on this chart.  Is it compatible with your current views?

I looked at the Gold one.It is a handy source for that information, but you don't need it. Well not for the way I do it.

If you think about it - the COT is in the price already.

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argentus maximus
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As a market timer and private

As a market timer and private trader, I do the best I can whilst dealing with incomplete data, and limited information, to project future outcomes to the highest probability I am capable of.

I opened this thread simply because I wanted to help others. I decided to set it out as successive trades. The sequence can’t be falsified, due to the forum restriction on editing posts. This allows readers to observe an accumulating short term track record, which could be evaluated as either helpful or BS.

During the last two weeks of dropping prices I tried to help readers evade the professional chopping-up process of small specs in which the BBs have engaged.

My opinion of the bullion market is based on my imperfect analysis of the incomplete information I have access to, my skills, which opinion I may trade myself. You can lose more than you invest in leveraged markets. I am not your financial advisor, I have no contractual relationship or liability, and this is educative discussion material not financial advice.

Always use stops to limit the damage from mistaken trades.

And thanks for your interest in the thread, which is much appreciated. I hope it’s rewarding for you.

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