Fear, Panic & Capitulation

Sounds like the perfect day for another TFMR Hat Contest!!!

Look, you can sit there and worry all you want. Santa's been warning you for days that things were about to get hairy. I warned you last Friday that, with the Chinese New Year, paper selloffs were bound to be more successful this week. The PM "markets" have now been driven to the same extreme oversold levels that we've seen at almost all of the bottoms/lows in the past. Though there may still be some follow-through selling as the momos attempt to take out $1600, who cares? What are you going to do? Convert your metal back into fiat? And if you do, which one? The Pig? The Euro or by extension, the Swissie? How about the yen? That'd be fun.

It all comes down to courage of conviction. Do you believe your own logic and analysis or do you believe CNBS? Do you trust your instincts or do you trust The Fed? I know you get tired of hearing it but here goes (again): You are being presented with a gift. That you can continue to accumulate physical gold and silver at $1600 and $30 is simply astonishing. Let The Forces of Darkness do their evil bidding. Five years from now, a day like today will be long forgotten. Meaningless unless you acted upon your beliefs and used this weakness to add to your stack.

Blast away of you want. If you need to vent, knock yourself out. Call me whatever you'd like, if that makes you feel better. But I do my best to keep everyone grounded. For example, we knew that at 98,000+ Cartel shorts, the silver market was likely going to get pounded. And it has. And without Asian demand in London propping up the physical market, paper shenanigans would rule the day. And so it's been. But this, too, will soon pass. Gold isn't going to $1500 and silver isn't going to break down through $26. And even if it does, who cares? If you're long and on margin (which I've cautioned you against for over a year now), then you obviously care. But again I ask you...Two years from now...Three years from now...Five years from now, none of this will have mattered. The only way you will recall this day is if you go full Gordon Brown and dump everything. Caught unprepared and buried in worthless fiat, you'll likely remember this day until the day you pass from this earth.

So, where are we? Well, I just checked and I see that, since I've been typing, gold has traded all the way down to $1596.70 and silver reached $29.73. They've since recovered a bit. That ought to do it. Maybe a retest or a slightly lower low over the 3-day weekend but things are now so deeply oversold that we've probably seen the worst of it. I could go on but I'm getting bored with it all, so, here are your charts. First, gold. Note the daily RSI and the presence of long-term support just below $1600.

And here is silver. Note that the long-term, primary trend that dates back to 2008 is in the vicinity of $29. Also note how many times The Bad Guys were unsuccessful at breaking it down through $30 late last year.

And here's a bonus weekly chart for you, created by Turdite "Mantis". Nice, simple, straightforward and easy to interpret.

Finally...The Hat Contest. Let's see, there is certainly no shortage of sages out there predicting big things by March, Santa being one of the most prominent. You've also got an abundance of mercurial newsletter writers predicting lower prices, instead. Keeping in mind that I've been wrong delayed for months, I am once again optimistic that finally some of my "explosive & historic" developments will begin to show themselves in the next six weeks. So, what do you think? The Contest will once again have two categories, gold and silver. Your task is to accurately forecast the closing price of silver and gold on Friday, March 29. This will be the price indicated by the Kitco charts on the homepage when the Globex closes at 5:15 NY time. (When guessing, you might keep in mind that FND for the April13 gold is 3/28.) Please use this thread for your guesses. I will close it to further comments/guesses at 6:00 pm EST on Sunday.

So, anyway, I don't know what else to tell you today besides hang in there and try to keep your eye on the big picture. PLEASE do not convert your metal back into fiat. Just hang in there, stay focused and continue to prepare for the inevitable.


p.s. Sorry to sound like a shill but what the heck...If you're looking to btfd, these are awful perdy...https://www.silverbulletsilvershield.com/freedom-girl-one-ounce-medallion.html?___store=silverbulletsilvershield_en&acc=b53b3a3d6ab90ce0268229151c9bde11

And if you register as a member today so that you can enter The Contest, please relax when you don't immediately see your guess appear in the comments. All new member accounts get moderated until I approve them. It's set up this way so that we can keep out spam, etc. I will edit and approve as quickly as possible. Thanks for you patience.


Puck T. Smith's picture

Re: A Trail of Breadcrumbs: The Resignation of Pope Benedict and

Wow, great find GL.  Tip of the tin-foil hat to you.  The is one of the most rational conspiracies ever.  Directed history at it's finest.  And not one mention of the Illuminati or the Build-A-Burgers.

In the interest of topicality I will restate my guess on the upcoming metal prices:



TomMack's picture

LCS update

i stopped buy the coin shop for a little 90%, very little.  it was 22.22 X face value.  there were plenty of buyers  5 or 6 AGEs about 40+ ASEs and 40 or so 1 oz rounds a few 10oz bars and a few $100 of 90%.  One of the buyers was a prepper we talked a little about keeping dry goods and being able to prepare water for drinking.  The coin shop had plenty of everything.  they had the most 90% i had seen there in several months, washingtons and roosevelts.  one person was selling 90% and about 30 silver dollars for about a total of $2500. they were using it for a vacation.

ClinkinKY's picture

Hmm, what's the difference? (per Hillary:)...

...yes,I'm sure some here will be out to say there's no difference between R's and D's. If you're talking about how bad we get screwed (pun intended) then yes, I'd agree with you. If you're talking about media coverage then you're full of it.


Philharmonicus_Maximus's picture

March Ag closing price

Ag = $48.17 on 03/29/13

Hat me, Turd!

ClinkinKY's picture

B.O. Looking Ahead To Employment After 2016:)

Obama’s EEOC: We’ll Sue You If You Don’t Hire Criminals

The Obama administration’s Equal Employment Opportunity Commission says it should be a federal crime to refuse to hire ex-convicts — and threatens to sue businesses that don’t employ criminals.

In April the EEOC unveiled its “Enforcement Guidance on the Consideration of Arrest and Conviction Records,” which declares that “criminal record exclusions have a disparate impact based on race and national origin.”

JY896's picture

FRN or debit

Real picture, from a friend from yesterday. I was going to get my hopes up, that at least one station manager is trying to do their part to educate... It gave me a chuckle, but alas --- they mean Fuel Rewards Network (FRN).

Still funny, though...

Ccanuck's picture

March 29th closing Numbers

Gold -1819.20

Silver - 35.08


johnnydow's picture

Dust is flyin

Told you to get out of GDX. 

and TF is giving away trinkets.  I guess when we do get some real panic and fear we will have trinket day out of the way.

The big long bear market will continue.  Kitco got rid of Nadler because in a real nasty bear market it would have looked bad

and you always need a bear on the way up.  LOL

Xeno's picture

China Devalues

China Devalues: A Thought Experiment

Yeah, I git these thoughts sippin the backyards smoothest mash.

It seems that if this competitive devaluation games goes much further it'll turn into a shootin' war before the baked in inflation hits.

So China agrees to the terms of the western govt.s with a twist. They decide to devalue the yuan but not against any currency. Instead, they devalue against gold. A one time shot. Now here is where the mash kicks in.

At first not much changes and the developed economies are happy China devalued, but everyone soon realizes that China actually forced any future currency games and devaluations to be made against gold.

Once China devalues in a way to end the games being played at all of our expense, which country once they realize they've been had, will dare continue the beggar thy neighbor game of competitive currency devaluation if all they will accomplish is devaluing against gold and only hurt themselves? and it's not like any country isn't hurting already but with no one to blame but themselve.s at that point, would they? could they?

uh oh the table's spinning

Puck T. Smith's picture

I thought this was amusing.

ClinkinKY's picture

@ Puck


ReachWest's picture


I had a nice dinner tonight with some close friends. I thought these two were somewhat plugged in. Nope.

Talked ever so briefly about inflation (much to my wife's chagrin) Asked them if they noticed inflation. Nope nothing - no inflation. I cited the repackaging of goods in smaller quantities, for the same price - nope. Not happening, according to them. Not only were they saying no - it was almost as if they were challenging me on my ascertain.

I mentioned that only Gold and Silver are real money with no encumbrance - blank stares.

I decided to ratchet it up a bit and discussed the USD and the possibility of China introducing a gold backed currency and the associated end of the USD as the petro-dollar - nope. Blank stares of disbelief. They thought I was crazy. ( The Chinese are unsophisticated and backwards). It was evident that everyone wanted the subject changed. I changed the subject and we talked about some TV show - ARGH. I suspect they will not invite me out again any time soon.

If Turdville is a real place - please god, transport me there now !!

tyberious's picture

A Letter I Wrote To Bill

A Letter I Wrote To Bill Murphy and GATA

Posted: 16 Feb 2013 05:41 AM PST

Friday morning, February 15, 2013

Dear Bill,
I’ve the privilege of reading your daily letter for years now and know in my heart I would not have been on the right side of gold for over a decade in part if not for your letter and the tremendous work of GATA.

I wanted to respond to your comments about nasty emails to you and the umpteen assault on the Crimenex (Comex).

Like you, Jim Sinclair and others, I too have received “hate” email. Even worse, someone resorted to finding my wife and daughter on social media sites and wrote nasty comments to them about me. My assistant likes to say to these people do they need her to call the police (is someone forcing them to read my work)? It doesn’t matter how accurate I am on other markets and/or honest about the reality of losses, some people will blame everyone but themselves. I don’t know how these folks prepare for the weather outside given how most forecasters miss at times.

I decided today to turn off the computer and instead go to the races and see a horse of mine named after my mother-in-law who passed away last year. She has as much of a chance of winning today as gold does of reversing and finishing up $25 but at least there I don’t believe the outcome is being decided by certain parties (at least I hope that’s the case-lol).

You and GATA have had little more than peashooters to fight the good fight against powers that toss nuclear bombs around as toys. Sadly, my industry who would benefit from what you have clearly proven already chooses to ignore and laugh at you as others do. Please accept my most sincere apology for such poor behavior and know your work has put the other side on notice their actions will eventually be shown for what they are (at least the nitwit is gone for now but like herpes they truly never go away).

While I’ve often said I respectfully disagree with you to the degree of manipulation and frequency, after 30 years in and around the financial arena I now believe its rampant and increasing because of problems even you and I can only guess to what degree they have become. I realize how right you and GATA have been when the Germans announced they want their gold back. The fact that they say it will take 7 years to deliver just 20% of their gold back held by the Fed was the farce to end all farces. It will do so because the Fed can’t deliver it in the matter of days or maximum weeks it would if it truly set somewhere in their total control and just matter of shipping. When you combine this fact with the amount of Central Banks have bought, I can see pass the smoke and mirrors and know what’s coming longer term.

So my dear friend Bill, Chris Powell and all the good people at GATA, we will get spit and spat on in the coming days but I know in my heart of hearts the very fact of what we’re witnessing in this latest sell-off is actually confirming what we already suspected.

God Bless,

Peter Grandich
Grandich Publications www.grandich.com
Trinity Financial, Sports & Entertainment Management Co. www.trinityfsem.com

indosil's picture

Trader Dan

i don't intend to compare..but Trader Dan is a respectable & renowned name...listening to his interview & reading his blog...it seems He thinks that Gold & Silver are going nowhere & he trashes people who are saying that Gold & Silver will explode to the upside in Two Weeks....His opinion not mine..he also goes on to say that Hedge Funds have the smallest position in Gold in 4 years.....


Sometimes as a trader it is best to simply head to the sidelines and do nothing rather than keep trying to catch a falling knife. The market will bottom when it wants to bottom and not because some guy writes an article extolling the virtures of a market in backwardation or someone else makes a statement that the market will bottom in exactly two weeks or some other such nonsense.

 Man the Bulls stand divided.....i don't like the air of Disagreementsad

tyberious's picture

Excellent analysis from andy on Silverdoctors' site

andyz says:

"TA charts are not very useful for PMs. But the COTs are very significant. The simple reason is that essentially the PM paper market is about two opposing Forces – the Commercials versus the large Speculators, and following the Commercials usually means being on the winning side.
The week to week COT changes in the positions of the two Forces is not as predictive as watching the approximately 2 – 3 months changes, and watching the changes in a bar graph format rather than numbers in Excel format (Marshall if youre reading this please consider the bar graphs as an addition to your excellent weekly reports). The bar graphs clearly show Commercilas and Specs going in opposite directions, with the gold/silver price on an aligned price graph so one can see how the patterns work, and which are very predictive.
In the simplest terms:
- when Commercial short interest is low, and Spec long interest is low, prices are likely to rise (the position in early August 2012).
- when Commercial short interest is high, and Spec long interest is high, prices are likely to decline (the position at end November 2012).
Next weeks COT report is likely going to show Commercila gold short interest back down to August 2012 levels, and Spec gold longs down to August 2012 levels, which is bullish for gold.
However its not the same for silver, and Commercial shorts and Spec longs are both still high (bearish for silver). The Commercials are battling to bring down the Spec longs in silver, and not getting it right. The Commercials may fight on, or may capitulate and take their losses, or huge physical for delivery could bring down the Commercials and cause a dangerous and destabilizing “Comex default and failure” in silver. The Commercials have painted themselves into a corner in silver, with potentially massive losses, and could do something entirely unpredictable to escape their mess. JPM just suffered the embarrassment of the London whale derivative scandal, and, as JPM would be the biggest loser in a silver capitulation, the silver market appears very dangerous right now."

Lady Gaugau's picture

Senator Elizabeth Warren

I have never been a fan of Ms. Warren ... until now. This is quite stunning.

(I could not find this posted elsewhere, so if I missed, apologies for redundancy)

Lady Gaugau's picture

Senator Elizabeth Warren

Double post.

torjung's picture

re:trader dan

so i guess he knew about the smack down from $50 to $35 in 2o11 is normal trading too right? market will bottom when u have 5 margin call in 1 week..and operation twist right after.....in this market...anything is possible...

tyberious's picture

There Will Be No Economic

I Run Bartertown's picture


What's next? Sue God and Nature because race has a 'disparate impact' on criminality?

Gont's picture

my hats for my birthday

Silver $34.29

Gold $1695.29

Ilya Repin's picture

March 29 38.56 1793

March 29



ag1969's picture

Wow, Bill O'Reilly talking dollar collapse

I have always thought that the end would be near when MSM retards (like O'reilly) started talking collapse.  This is amazing for "The all spin zone."

JazzTalker's picture


I can't say one way or the other about him.  I do read him and listen to him. Not as much anymore as it seems he looks at the short side of things. But I did email Jim Sinclair about Trader Dan and his views as I noticed he was never talking or aligned with what Jim was saying.  Santa emailed me and said Dan is a friend but is a trader.  He knows what is going to happen.  I actually emailed Dan a little while ago about his analysis and asked him about the other dynamics that are going on and how does that impact his assessment. i.e. china buying, russia buying, market manipulation,  etc.  He responded a little angry toward me as I guess he took my email to him the wrong way.  I was asking him how these other forces play into his analysis..i indicated i don't understand his thinking sometimes and how it aligns or doesn't align with Santa.  I didn't mean any bad sentiment just was trying to understand and he got pretty angry at me.

Sometimes maybe emails/written form can be missed interpreted as I always try to understand.   Anyway, I can say that SAnta has always been very kind in his emails to me when i've tried to understand his POV.  He's always been very helpful and has indicated to sit tight you will be rewarded.  His confidence is chilling on this subject unlike anyone else i've read or discussed gold with. 

Listen no one is alwasy right  Trader Dan missed the entire QE/nominal GDP targeting thing and other macro things.  but his chart work is good.  He's not a marcro guy, but he puts things in a nicely written package.  It's a good read but to listen to everything he says wouldn't be wise either. 

Listen, this is all insignificant at the end of the day. What trader dan says or not.  There are a very few bright people out in the world right now that have been very very accurate on what is happening.  connect the dots folks.  many things are going on. be prepared either way. have some cash, have some gold and have some silver.  Be ready at a moments notice...be nimble...

Be careful about those who are angry at the world right now that area saying "i told you"-sell your silver or gold...you're stupid.  emotions are going wild.  These markets are driving people nuts.   I wouldn't be surprised if we start hearing stories of people jumping off of bridges because they can't take it anymore.  It's very obvious that people are losing it in this market.

Now is the time to stay strong.  If you go broke, then you can get on government programs like everyone else.   

delric's picture

Join them

If you can't beat them:

G: 1548

S: 28,12

opticsguy's picture

Dinner Friday

Met with one of my libertarian friends and his wife.  They knew about the 1.5 billion round of JHP, the camps, the executive orders, the media bias, etc., but, they had done nothing to prepare.  In fact, they had just bought a new Lexus that week.  They knew in the back of their minds that something was about to happen (meteor strike?).

I told them my theory, that one weekend the Chinese will announce gold backing of the RNB and the Saudis will  announce they will take either RNB or gold for oil.  The banks will be closed for a week while new exchange rates are sorted out.  In the end, a zero is added to the price of everything except your paycheck.  If you want to know what the 1.5B rounds are for, read up on the food riots in Argentina.

That got them thinking.

Chibster's picture

@ReachWest dinner friend; Peter Schiff Owning everyone on C-span

@ReachWest on your dinner with friends.   Same thing happened to me a couple years ago.  Close friend thought I had gone nuts being concerned about the financial crisis.  He's got ostrich head in the sand syndrome.  Everything unraveling in the news over the past couple years vindicates me as everything I said to him has been coming into fruition.

Why is everyone so down and negative on this precious metals blog?  The dots have already been connected.   This older Peter Schiff video reinforces why we have it right and must continue steering through this course straight.

Peter Schiff Owning Everyone's Ass on C-span

Bsong's picture


@Lady G.  To those late to the game the questioning is something to cheer.  However, it's all theater, seems to have a desired hypnotic impact on the ignorant  populous.  Reminds me of when they named financial reform after Dodd Frank.

foxenburg's picture

60 Victoria Embankment

put the address into google and you can street view walk around the building. quite substantial. if you look at the building from the embankment there is an interesting large curved black door that appears to lead into an alley between Morgan Guaranty Ltd and Unilever House. That seems to be the way in for vehicles.

Puck T. Smith's picture

@Lady Gaugau: Elizabeth Warren Video

I think the video you posted has been posted by others earlier, but this is the first time I've actually watched it.  On the face of it, it is an impressive performance.  If I did not have core set of moral, philosophical and political principles and got the bulk of my information from TV news, i.e., if I were the typical voter, I could see how she would be an attractive in politician fighting for the "little guy" against the greedy wall street banks and inept regulators.  

Being the kind of person I am I did a little bit more digging.  I checked OpenSecrets.org to see who contributed the most to here recent senatorial campaign.

Source of Funds

legend Individual Contributions $41,429,037 (97%)
legend PAC Contributions $686,708 (2%)
legend Candidate self-financing $0 (0%)
legend Other $390,604 (1%)

Again, if I were the kind of person who didn't really know what I stood for, I would be impressed.  Most of her contributions come from individual donors, not PACs or Wall Street banks--unlike a couple of recent presidential candidates I could name.

Looking a little deeper it seems most those individual contributions are from people in groups that are highly dependent on government spending.

Industry   Total   Indivs   PACs  
Retired $3,191,579 $3,191,579 $0
Lawyers/Law Firms $2,059,677 $2,034,677 $25,000
Women's Issues $1,502,150 $1,482,678 $19,472
Democratic/Liberal $1,205,088 $856,552 $348,536
Education $1,198,528 $1,198,528 $0

I could see how that would be troubling to people who consider themselves to be conservative, but for people who think our current form of government, i.e., regulatory democracy, is good, there would not be too much to worry about.  Hey, she's looking out for retired people, women and schools.  Sure she has a lot of support among lawyers, but it takes lawyers to fight for peoples' rights and if Democrats are the one's doing that, it shouldn't be surprising that she she gets money from Democrats. 

Altogether, if one weren't taking the typical partisan "our side good, their side evil" that is so common in both parties, I'd say she is on track for an eventual shot at a Democratic presidential candidacy.  She doesn't seem to have any skeleton's in her closet and she aligns with core Democratic party values and positions.

Now, from a conservative perspective, there is this statement that is a big red flag:

There is nobody in this country who got rich on his own. Nobody.  You built a factory out there--good for you. But I want to be clear.  You moved your goods to market on the roads the rest of us paid for.  You hired workers the rest of us paid to educate.  You were safe in your factory because of police forces and fire forces that the rest of us paid for. You didn't have to worry that marauding bands would come and seize everything at your factory... Now look.  You built a factory and it turned into something terrific or a great idea--God Bless! Keep a Big Hunk of it.  But part of the underlying social contract is you take a hunk of that and pay forward for the next kid who comes along"

This is the sort of things that drives the Bill O'Reillys, the Sean Hannitys, the Rush Limbaughs and the Glen Becks crazy.  "Look," they say, "she hates free enterprise!"  So they talk up people like Mitt Romney and Marco Rubio as defenders of capitalism and individual initiative.  It plays well with their base.  Personally, I think Tibor Machan addressed that particular issue best.

...nothing at all follows from any of this about how Ms. Warren has any authority at all to rearrange the world her way. My nose and ears and kidneys and eyes weren't created on my own but none of that implies for a second that Elizabeth Warren is entitled to start invading my body and decide how its parts ought to be used. Nor even that my parents actually own me!
Of course, property rights start simple enough and then become complex. But that is just why a free country has a law of property instead of Ms. Warren as a tyrant who orders us all to do as she wishes. 

Then there was also the "Native American" flap:

In April 2012, the Boston Herald drew attention to Warren's law directory entries from 1986 to 1995, in which she had self-identified as a Native American. Harvard Law School had publicized the entries in the 1990s in response to criticisms about a lack of faculty diversity. In 1999 Harvard began to publish its affirmative action plan on its website. The report for that year lists a single Native American senior professor. Warren said that she was unaware that Harvard had been promoting her Native American heritage until she read about it in a newspaper. The New England Historical Genealogical Society found no documentary proof of Native American lineage. Warren maintained that Native American ancestry was a part of her family folklore, a statement echoed by her three siblings and several of her cousins, and that she had self-identified as a minority in the law directory listing in hopes of meeting people of a similar background. The [Scott] Brown campaign, called on her to "come clean about her motivations for making these claims and explain the contradictions between her rhetoric and the record", and several Cherokee groups came out against her.

To me it was much ado about nothing, but to some it calls into question her character and gives the impression she likes to play identity politics.  To be honest, if this is the best the so called right wing can come up with she is still looking like potential presidential material.

This is the seductive trap of politics.  If you take for granted that someone needs to be in charge, it is easy enough to come up with people who fit the bill of leader.  However as I said in an earlier post on this topic:

There exists an nearly psychotic delusion that unless people are ringed by a barbed-wire fence of manmade laws topped by armed enforcers society would descend into violent, bloody chaos.  Because government schools do not teach history most people think things have always been this way, or if they haven't then the past was such a miserable, impoverished hell that we should be grateful that noble souls such as Elizabeth Warren are willing to step up to the plate to serve in the best interests of the rest of us.
The extent of the debate is limited to this: should liberal progressives, such as Elizabeth Warren, be the ones directing the violence or would we be better served if a conservative like Marco Rubio were calling the shots?  In either case, the option of not being directed by violence at the whim of whoever persuades the biggest crowd is never offered.  It is never even acknowledged as an possibility. 

The bankers are in the position they are in because of a multitude of laws that protect them for the consequences of their actions.  The ironic things is most of those laws were advertised as protecting us from the very problems they ended up creating.  In a free market, private law society, where commercial activity would be based on property rights and sound money, there would be no need for bank regulation.  The banks would have been regulated by market forces: they would have failed catastrophically and the people who either did not do due diligence or thought they could go along for the ride would have failed along with them as they should have.  Whatever assets they had so poorly managed would have been acquired by people who could manage them effectively and they would then be put to use in a productive manner increasing the overall prosperity of society.

Elizabeth Warren only looks good in the context of a complete ignorance of economics and the belief that society must be organized by coercion and violence.

[Puck is on a tear.  It must be Sunday morning on Main street.]

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