The setup for the big trade

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murphy
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@ AM

Great thread, although I have to admit some of it is like a foreign language to me. By all means keep it up. It seems you have a grasp of both the art of manipulation and the science of TA.

@ Beastly- thanks for pointing this thread out on Main

Terp
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Awesome stuff!

Great stuff A.M. - Keep it up. I'll be following =) Your TA and observations are fantastic.

I bought 3 Apr Gold contracts before reading this thread. I have a 1620 stop but have room to maneuver.

Thanks Beastly for directing me here!

murphy
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@ AM

Stop over the Speak and I will buy you a virtual drink

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/271409#comment-271409

Oh by the way, glad you found us. Sorry it took so long to find you.

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Just added this page to my IE

Just added this page to my IE home page tabs - I will be very interested to see what the next few days brings.

I am wondering if this parabola in silver will hold the low or if you envision a breach of it.

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thedukes
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Argentus

Nice thread. How much of your work is uses fibanacci  and volume for both the dollar and gold? This appears to be the second test of the 1626 level from Jan 4. Volume is increasing and we are heading into a Friday for a possible test of that level once again. It's also heading into a 1:1 fib retracement from the Sept 2011 highs. Are you factoring the possiblity of a 1:1.382 or 1:1.618 which would bring gold prices to a 1582 first level and a 1552 second potential level. The dollar also lines up for a potential run to 81.50 on expanding volumes which looks to confirm a gold break of the 1626 level. Thoughts.

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Thanks Argentus

Just spent 30 minutes reading through your thread. Great work - mostly way above my head - but I shall continue to observe from the sidelines. I like the way you present your analysis and tie it to headlines.

ag1969
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Thank you so much Argentus

I saw Beastly and GL on the main thread suggesting everyone check you out, and now I see why.  And just so you know, I enjoyed your subjective side.  The way you connect dots is very compelling even for non traders like myself.  I was thoroughly captivated for the entire thread.  I will be back.......daily!

Turd Ferguson
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I must concur

Great stuff! Keep it up!

argentus maximus
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@Strawboss

Strawboss wrote:
Just added this page to my IE home page tabs - I will be very interested to see what the next few days brings.

I am wondering if this parabola in silver will hold the low or if you envision a breach of it.

Thx for your interest.

The parabola can be drawn to fit silver a couple of ways, like eg with a huge break last year after May, so redrawing it to fit the new lows is being somewhat subjective (for myself that is). I have two long term charts, one with arithmetic the other logarithmic, but with straight trendlines on both.

The straight trendline on a logarithmic chart is a parabolic shape if you toggle the vertical scale to arithmetic. So in a way I'm using a log trendline in that chart.

I wouldn't usually do a log curve/parabolic on a logarithmic scaled chart, but in a runaway vertical move it might have application for someone sitting watching and trying to catch the final up to the sky moment. I hope I'd be gone before that terrifying moment!

As for the break of the parabolic line .... I guess we could expect a trial probing, to shake off the machine traded fund algos. I would think a break downwards that was not followed through and then coming back up through itwould be very bullish.

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Awesomeness
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Great stuff!!

Great work, read through it all, keep it up :D

Just curious how your calculating the cyclic forecast? Is it wave theory based (mostly fib based) or something else?

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Thrilling

Reads like a top mind blowing suspense fiction. Even more mind blowing; seems like fact! Wow!

bugzy

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My 2 cents

I've also just read through the entire thread; AM talks of blast off as potentially being a terrifying event, I like to think not.

Anyway, I am on record on Main St as predicting, and being positioned for one last epic smack-down before blast off. I have no talents in TA, I am more into psychological profiling. These bastards have the financial firepower, the intent, the obsession and the hubris to do the smack-down thing again and again, with ever greater risk to themselves. They exult in destroying the bulls. At some point, they will meet their nemesis, and let us hope it will be soon, as Santa predicts.

I expect to see epic turbulence this quarter!

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Enjoyed the thread

Argentus,

I like how you are willing to project possible outcomes/scenarios in the future. That takes guts and conviction. Thanks for sharing your perspective and analysis.

madwaloo
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I'm hooked!

Very interesting stuff. It's like voodoo TA (only because I don't understand how you are doing it.)  Please keep the posts coming!

indosil
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Intriguing

Intriguing Stuff & Bull's Eye so far...refresing posts & very informational.....another addition of invaluable Gem to Turd's Repertoire.

Katie Rose
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I just read through the thread

and I didn't understand much of it at all. Maybe because it is late at night? Maybe because I am not a trader?

I do thank you for your hard work on all of our behalves.

You might want to post some of this on Main St. I'm sure that your ideas would be most welcome there.

I'd love to see you and IVARS get into a discussion there, as well as others who still trade.

I feel very blessed that there are so many excellent minds to learn from here.

Once again, Thank You!

Desert Fox
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Top Shelf

A little late to the party, but I've caught up {on your thread} and am duly intrigued/impressed.

I've noticed an appreciable uptick in significant news reports within the last month and can see how the tremors are intensifying.

Fascinating analysis. Looking forward to the next installments.

SilverLeaf
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Great work Argentus

I'm intrigued as well, and would like to follow your thoughts on silver over the coming months as well. 

It's interesting you mention 1625 as a bullion bank target. A sustained drop below that level would technically invalidate Alf Field's call from a few months ago that we'd seen the final lows of this consolidation. Idiot masochists they are, I can't help but suspect that the EE will try to break the 1625 level, and that we'll see another sustained waterfall in the PMs to form a durable bottom.

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AgAuthaChristie
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@ Argent

I am glad I followed the link to your thread. Please dont hold back.  You have a large and interested audience. Thanks.

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argentus maximus
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Within 3 sessions it appears

Within 3 sessions it appears to me that the BBs (with the CBs, PPT, & Co) will kick the metals off the window ledge they are presently on and dump them into freefall. This is imminent. Some stop levels will be crashed through. Some stop levels will have massive buying force contained within them. The question is how much drop in price is achieved for how much short sales. They have the exact figure, we can observe the volume and price chart to see footprints they leave and can not hide. 

This will be the contest for this swing. I mean "contest" in the sense of "crucial point of the matter". How much price is moved through while this freefall stage is in progress, or how little, or any move at all. The shorts meet the remaining bulls and one side wins. If they sell into it and it doesn't budge, that's it. Price direction for the coming month gets decided there and then. (With a couple of hiccups.) They will instantly move into a precalculated program of collapsing the short side of their spread position, retaining the longs, and try to be the first to cover their shorts in the new bear squeeze-bull.

They will do that by putting on longs in correlated markets, flash crashing the PMs up through traders stops, and closing their correlated trades to produce their bear closure trade within the gap on the PM chart. Somebody must have explained this trading move somewhere but I can elaborate if required. Bottom line: If the miners rise while the physical is falling, or stopping falling, watch out for the next open, or guard against a flash crash up during open session.

I believe at the moment that should the BBs try this after Feb 21st, it will only work if the metals are already below the monthly support & resistance at that time, BUT  if the metals have stopped falling and are above support at that time they will have their leveraged portfolios wiped out in minutes and their corporate heads handed to them on a plate.

It's not looking so good for them at the moment. Look at how much, or little, price declined during recent interventions versus interventions several weeks ago. A (loose) wedge is being created due to successive falls decreasing in size.

The next COT will tell a very interesting story, but by the time we see it the  chart will already contain much of it.

Charts .... after I get some work done. smiley

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This analysis - global markets

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