Washout?

My new printer is finally online and the pits close in about an hour. I'd better type fast.

I'm hoping that today's action is the final washout I mentioned yesterday. I did get filled on the July silver $35 call that I'd been hoping to buy. We'll see what happens next but, either way and with 4+ months on my back pocket, I feel pretty good about it regardless of what happens over the next few days. I see that several other folks, including Santa, are expecting something BIG in March. Maybe they'll be right. I certainly hope so. In the meantime, I'm patiently waiting for Ides+7, though I hope for a reversal and another shot at The Big Test before then.

Not helping things are the generally cautious-looking charts below. If all three (crude, copper and platinum) roll over and begin to trend downward, it certainly isn't going to help the cause of the metals in the short term. Obviously, if attempting to trade, you'd better be keeping and eye on them.

Next, in a sickening example of the manipulated and MOPEd sham the markets have become, read what I wrote on 2/1, as I was hurrying out the door to head to Vegas:

"Speaking of fiat debasement, the situation in The Pig is getting rather tenuous. The Bernank had better send out a Goon or two to talk it up soon or it risks failing at 79 and then 78. IF/WHEN this happens, look out below for a retest of the all-important 73 level. You can plainly see it here on this daily chart. Open your mind and you'll see a year-long, head-and-shoulder top. Therefore, a breakdown here would indeed be a big deal."

So, of course, what has happened in the two weeks since? Exactly that! And not only do we get one or two Fed Goons per day talking up the dollar, we also had Goldman's man in Europe talking down the euro and the G-7 talking up the yen. What a perfect storm of MOPE! Sickening.

So, now can they pull the same trick to rescue the 10-year note? Fckn-A right, they can! Just watch...

So where does this all leave is in the metals? In the crapper, of course! Let's see...In the 5 months since the announcement of QE∞ back in September, gold has fallen from $1780 to $1640. That's a drop of 7.9%. Yep, that makes a lot of sense! Even worse, silver has fallen from $35 to $30.50. That's -12.8%!! While The POSX has been defended at 79 four times! And the S&P500 is up 5%!! What a deal and a magnificent victory for central planning, control and manipulation!

Here, this is even worse: $85,000,000,000 per month in money printing confirmed in early December of last year. Since then, gold has fallen from $1725 to $1640 (-4.9%) and silver has fallen from $32.20 to $30.50 (-5.3%). And since this money began flooding the world in January, both metals are now unchanged. $120,000,000,000 new dollars created from nothing over the past 6 weeks and....nothing. No change at all in the price in gold and silver. But the S&P500 is up nearly 100 point since the first of year. Remarkable.

So, anyway, here are your charts:

I had a number of other things that I wanted to write about today but, after those last two paragraphs, I'm so depressed that I'm just going to quit, instead.

See you tomorrow.

TF

171 Comments

Green Lantern's picture

Yes Bollocks.  I noticed that

Yes Bollocks.  I noticed that too.   Makes it even more interesting in many different ways.   Just watching for now.  

I Run Bartertown's picture

babaganoush

I have to agree with Monedas on this one.

The answer is not to make the only pivots of power be media corporations and public-sector unions.

Don't limit voluntary associations amongst people. Limit the favors that the politicians have to offer. Take their power, and they've nothing to sell. Then they won't be bought.

¤'s picture

Today in History...

Comprehensive and graphic History Channel documentary.

The St. Valentines Day Massacre

"This feature-length film is a riveting chronicle of the bloodiest day in the history of organized crime in America, and the end of Capone's stranglehold on the Windy City.

It is one of the most infamous days in American history. On Valentine's day in 1929, the streets of Chicago ran with blood as the gangs of Al Capone and Bugs Moran battled to the death.

This riveting chronicle of The St. Valentine's Day Massacre revisits the extraordinary day through extensive footage, contemporary new coverage of the killings, true-to-life re-enactments and interviews with mob experts, historians and authors. See why the long-running rivalry between Chicago's notorious crime bosses exploded into all-out war. Learn the details of Capone's diabolical plan to eliminate the entire Moran gang, and explore the reasons that it backfired--with disastrous consequences for the legendary gangster.

Against the backdrop of Prohibition, with its tommy-guns, speakeasies and bathtub gin, THE ST. VALENTINE'S DAY MASSACRE is one of the most fascinating stories in the long history of American crime."

Puck T. Smith's picture

@ babaganoush2307: re We The People Amendment

Considering that the only constitutional amendment that is consistently enforced is the 16th, if this were to pass, why would you think it would actually affect anything?  If you really want to limit the influence of corporations over the legislative process, the legislative process must be limited.  Statutory law is simply an opinion with guns behind it.  For most of human history the idea of new law was a contradiction.  Law is something that is discovered, not created.

Kern, Fritz. "Law Is Good." Trans. S. B. Chrimes. Kingship and Law in the Middle Ages: I. The Divine Right of Kings and the Right of Resistance in the Early Middle Ages. II. Law and Constitution in the Middle Ages. Studies. Oxford: B. Blackwell, 1939. p. 151.

I realize this is a totally foreign concept to our modern thinking, but that is simply another result of our oh, so vaunted democracy.  You will never solve problems by using the very methods that created them.

Puck T. Smith's picture

@ag1969: Cracking the

@ag1969: Cracking the Code.

This reminds me of the Sovereign Citizens and Freeman on the Land people.  They seem to think they can come up with some magic words that will make them immune to people who have no respect for law.  They may be absolutely correct as to their technical reading of UCC and the tax code, but when push come to shove the State will always get what it wants, even if it has to kill you to get it.  Playing the State's game only make it stronger.

If you are not willing to go off the grid completely or to be a martyr you better pay your frikkin' taxes.  

Shortgame28's picture

Buying PM's on a Credit Card

Help! I want to purchase some Junk Silver TONIGHT with a credit card and I know once the bill comes due I can pay it without having to deal with the interest. My question is this...Does anyone know a website that doesn't destroy you on CC fees? I've tried Liberty, Gainesville Coin, Provident, and none are coming easy.

Dr Jerome's picture

Lloyd's new look

I think our fine friend Lloyd Blankfein is showing the love with his new Bernanke Beard. Or maybe there is a filial relationship we don't know about. Brothers?

Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein  

Puck T. Smith's picture

@Shortgame28: I've never

@Shortgame28: I've never bought with a credit card so I can't say.  But in my experience http://jcsgold.com/ has good prices in general.  You might want to at least check them out.

Edit, here's a direct link to their 90% https://jcsgold.com/product-category/silver/silver90silvercoins/

There will be a 3% Processing Fee for Credit Card &PayPal Orders and 5% Sales Tax for Virginia Residents.

Hope this helps.

One more edit.  It appears they do not take credit cards.  They will do paypal, though.

Sorry.

Ilya Repin's picture

You should really ignore the

You should really ignore the DXY its a waste of time. USD is breaking down against other currencies.

Example is NZD today.. go check

exiledbear's picture

I'm with Richard Russell

Hold onto your PMs. Makes you wonder what people were saying about gold in 1975, it does. And I guess who was it? Burns? Arthur Burns at the Fed was probably thinking that his policies were working?

And then it all came unglued in 1979 later on? And then in 1980 people were lined up at the coin shop?

Meanwhile in an unmanipulated market, bitcoins gained the $26 handle. From $5 a year ago and $10 a few months ago. I scaled in at around $5, I'll let you work out the % profit.

cpnscarlet's picture

Happy Valentine's Day

Just enjoyed a nicely prepped dinner by Mrs. Scarlet - filet mignon, stuffed mushrooms, and a nice local cabernet.

I'm pretty much numb to the PMs at this point. I must sell shares in Sprott to pay bills every month and losing some $$ every time I do. Can't but anymore phizz, but would if I could.

Disgusted with everything today. Prices and prognostication. If March 27 comes and goes with no changes, then the end has come - no more faith in Santa.

Sell my gold? Yep - slowly as needs insist. Change my opinion? No. America is lost, people are no damn good, the money is nothing more than printed paper. And a very good friend who was a top-rate linguist with Wycliffe Translators just run oft with another woman. People SUCK!

But April may see my list of misplaced heroes will include some new names...Sinclair, Embry, Rickards, Davies, .... and Turd....etc.

This better end soon.

philipat's picture

USD

The Fed has elected to weaken the USD to stimulate exports (Not that the US actually makes much that anyone would want to buy) and repay debt in devalued Dollars. The alternative being default.

So why would it want to talk UP the Dollar?

SteveW's picture

Happy Valentines Day

cpnscarlet: Just enjoyed a nicely prepped dinner by Mrs. Scarlet - filet mignon, stuffed mushrooms, and a nice local cabernet.

I'm about to put the thin crust pizza that I got at Wallymart last week into the oven. We're already into the wine, a fine local varietal known as California Red fermented chez nous. Its about the only skill I have that may be useful when the distribution chain collapses.

Should get my monthly pension payment tomorrow then I can stack a little more. My Sprott is in my pension portfolio so I know how you feel about the losses. Bought a bullish put spread on SLV this morning at market bottom for both March and April.

Filet mignon and cabernet (pizza and Cal Red) : life is good!

maravich44's picture

thoughts............

from bob, jimi.

Green Lantern's picture

CPNscarlett et al.I

CPNscarlett et al.

I appreciate you giving a real life testimony of your situation.    Real life stories speaks louder than any thing else.

I think it's fair to say that alot of people are hurting.  I'm certainly struggling and doing everything I can not to sell an ounce of anything!    Fiat is a bit harder to come by these days and so utilizing every bit of creativity that I have.   And the people I know who are in the metals are struggling either emotionally or otherwise after being seriously in the red.  They aren't broke but you could say their retirement money is gone if they were to sell now.  And some are 100% leveraged in metal investments.  If things were to go south, they would loose everything.  I have no doubts they will make it back if they hold tight.

While I too don't enjoy the struggle, I am doing everything I can to stay optimistic, count my blessings for all that I do have and enjoy my hobbies,  love ones and the winter sun.   I also wonder how much of the tension on this place boils down to the stress of the markets?

The pro's, like us, are struggling too to understand the paradigm.  As good as they might be, NOBODY alive today has experienced the conditions and unprecedented events that we are seeing.   Is it possible to be an expert in unprecedented times?   And as well read on history as they might be,  we live in a more complex world than Ancient Rome.   More advanced weapons, technology, internet etc... I read alot of history but some things I can't find any parallels especially the rate which events are unfolding.

I don't mind people being wrong as long as they stand up and acknowledge they are learning to.  Not everybody does it but Sprott seems to.

Hang in their bro! Stay positive.  The world is not ending.  It's just getting a complete makeover.

ForWhomTheTollBuilds's picture

Well, at least I am unleveraged

Mr Sinclair is now talking of a waterfall in gold being a near term possibility.   Whatever will be will be I guess, but I have been noticing the increasingly biblical tone in his posts lately.  I tried to shrug off this "good vs evil" stuff as a rhetorical flourish (I do agree that the elites are pretty damned evil, but I fail to see how not selling gold makes me the equivalent of a war hero).

Anyway, I sometimes think people buy PMs and see themselves as part of the biggest battle the world has ever seen without really thinking through what that means.  I don't see gold at $1200 anytime soon, but you should ask yourself what hardship it would cause you to live with that price for a year or two.

Because it wouldn't be out of line with what happened in 74/75.

As always, I'm not here to rub salt.  But I think we do well to step back and think about what we are witnessing here and what it really means.  If you (we) are right about the state of the world and the hearts of the men who run it, then we are in for some real sleepless nights at some point one way or another.

maravich44's picture

much is hidden..

also.

AgAuthaChristie's picture

@ Cpnscarlet

"This better end soon."

Or what?  Your whining will become even more incessant ?  Its not that Im not enjoying your performance of your one man play "The Mangina Dialogues"  but c'mon!  If you are having to sell shares of Sprott to make ends meet it indicates that you greedily went all in at one point. Thats no ones fault but your own.  You took a chance for a big gain and it didnt work out.  Judging from your dinner menu its not as if you are on a starvation diet yet.

Life doesn't owe any of us anything. 

El Gordo's picture

It's just accounting

When I buy food, appliances, TV's, tennis shoes and the like, I do not necessarily consider them to be investments, even if I bring them in and do not immediately consume them.  I consider them expenses, along with rent, utilities and the like.  I prefer to pay for such items with fiat.  Assuming that many of these items will be recurring in nature, I try to preserve a little fiat to be available the next time these expenses are due in the event I am unable to raise sufficient funds from other sources like work, etc.  Additionally, I try to keep a little fiat stashed away for unforseen circumstances and/or opportunities which may present themselves (your loss is my gain type deals).  Then, I take a look at what may be considered excess available funds (if any), and that is my mad money.  I can choose to gamble it away, invest it, give it away, buy a BJ, or whatever.  Typically, this is the fund I use to buy a few ASE's from time to time, and I treat it the same as if I pissed it away doing something else with it.  I do not see getting rich, nor do I necessarily consider this stack to be an investment.  It's just another expense, and since it all fell into the bay, it doesn't exist any more than the tank of gas that I just burned.  I'm probably a little underwater (no pun intended) on my stack, but I'm a lot under water on all that other stuff.

Now, should I encounter a serious catastrophic event, I suppose I could go dredge up some of those coins and trade them back for fiat.  I can always come up with something that I might desire a little more than a lost stack of coins, so some decisions making a sacrifice is required.  My plan is this:  Should the world turn to crap and the economic system completely break down, I will have something that I can trade for a loaf of bread; or when I move on to the afterlife I will leave a little map for any of my heirs who are interested to go see if they can find them.  Out of sight, out of mind.  Those who may have over invested, go ahead and lighten your load and take care of business.  If you prefer to invest in paper markets inflated by Fed actions, be my guest.  If you see the need to save nothing at all, you can do that too.  I'm not (t00) judgmental as to other folks, I'm just saying what I try to do.  If the NORKS light us up with nukes, it really won't matter too much what I did anyway.  

kingboo's picture

@ Green Lantern.......

"Is it possible to be an expert in unprecedented times?"        Brilliant.........and i suppose the obvious answer is no.

I am too young to know if this is unprecedented, but it's certainly unprecedented in my lifetime (45yrs).....

I think i have reached the "acceptance" stage of this economic crisis.....that is to say.....although i did have ideas about making a quick buck on gold/silver popping....i now have been "reprogrammed" to believe that gold/silver are the only true and portable wealth.....  and since that is the case, not only will i not sell...but i can't sell, because there's nowhere safe to store my earned wealth.....which brings me back to acceptance.....   I have no other alternative, i am resigned to this and quite frankly, emotionally defeated......but not selling. 

JustAnotherLurker's picture

I thought one of these might be called for...

ForWhomTheTollBuilds's picture

@Green Lantern

"but i can't sell, because there's nowhere safe to store my earned wealth.....which brings me back to acceptance...."

I think there are a lot of us in exactly this position.  The only alternative to PMs is other physical stuff like land, tools etc.  There just isn't anything else to do.

That said, anyone who believes these are the early days of "Weimar America" needs to get right with the fact that the stock would stage one the biggest rallys ever seen soon.  Lots of people driving ferraris past huge lineups of unemployed people as money pours into the system, worsening our problems, leading to calls that they aren't printing fast enough...

The crazyness is just getting started if we are right about the way things are going.

kingboo's picture

No comment.....

kingboo's picture

This is mildly interesting

Welcome to the Malware-Industrial Complex

The U.S. government is developing new computer weapons and driving a black market in “zero-day” bugs. The result could be a more dangerous Web for everyone.

 


malware complex

Every summer, computer security experts get together in Las Vegas for Black Hat and DEFCON, conferences that have earned notoriety for presentations demonstrating critical security holes discovered in widely used software. But while the conferences continue to draw big crowds, regular attendees say the bugs unveiled haven’t been quite so dramatic in recent years.

One reason is that a freshly discovered weakness in a popular piece of software, known in the trade as a “zero-day” vulnerability because the software makers have had no time to develop a fix, can be cashed in for much more than a reputation boost and some free drinks at the bar. Information about such flaws can command prices in the hundreds of thousands of dollars from defense contractors, security agencies and governments.

This trade in zero-day exploits is poorly documented, but it is perhaps the most visible part of a new industry that in the years to come is likely to swallow growing portions of the U.S. national defense budget, reshape international relations, and perhaps make the Web less safe for everyone.

Zero-day exploits are valuable because they can be used to sneak software onto a computer system without detection by conventional computer security measures, such as antivirus packages or firewalls. Criminals might do that to intercept credit card numbers. An intelligence agency or military force might steal diplomatic communications or even shut down a power plant.

It became clear that this type of assault would define a new era in warfare in 2010, when security researchers discovered a piece of malicious software, or malware, known as Stuxnet. Now widely believed to have been a project of U.S. and Israeli intelligence (U.S. officials have yet to publicly acknowledge a role but have done so anonymously to the New York Times and NPR), Stuxnet was carefully designed to infect multiple systems needed to access and control industrial equipment used in Iran’s nuclear program. The payload was clearly the work of a group with access to government-scale resources and intelligence, but it was made possible by four zero-day exploits for Windows that allowed it to silently infect target computers. That so many precious zero-days were used at once was just one of Stuxnet’s many striking features.

Since then, more Stuxnet-like malware has been uncovered, and it’s involved even more complex techniques (see “The Antivirus Era Is Over”). It is likely that even more have been deployed but escaped public notice. Meanwhile, governments and companies in the United States and around the world have begun paying more and more for the exploits needed to make such weapons work, says Christopher Soghoian, a principal technologist at the American Civil Liberties Union.

“On the one hand the government is freaking out about cyber-security, and on the other the U.S. is participating in a global market in vulnerabilities and pushing up the prices,” says Soghoian, who says he has spoken with people involved in the trade and that prices range from the thousands to the hundreds of thousands. Even civilian law-enforcement agencies pay for zero-days, Soghoian says, in order to sneak spy software onto suspects’ computers or mobile phones.

Exploits for mobile operating systems are particularly valued, says Soghoian, because unlike desktop computers, mobile systems are rarely updated. Apple sends updates to iPhone software a few times a year, meaning that a given flaw could be exploited for a long time. Sometimes the discoverer of a zero-day vulnerability receives a monthly payment as long as a flaw remains undiscovered. “As long as Apple or Microsoft has not fixed it you get paid,” says Soghioan.

No law directly regulates the sale of zero-days in the United States or elsewhere, so some traders pursue it quite openly. A Bangkok, Thailand-based security researcher who goes by the name “the Grugq” has spoken to the press about negotiating deals worth hundreds of thousands of dollars with government buyers from the United States and western Europe. In a discussion on Twitter last month, in which he was called an “arms dealer,” he tweeted that “exploits are not weapons,” and said that “an exploit is a component of a toolchain … the team that produces & maintains the toolchain is the weapon.”

The Grugq contacted MIT Technology Review to state that he has made no “public statement about exploit sales since the Forbes article.”

Some small companies are similarly up-front about their involvement in the trade. The French security company VUPEN states on its website that it “provides government-grade exploits specifically designed for the Intelligence community and national security agencies to help them achieve their offensive cyber security and lawful intercept missions.” Last year, employees of the company publicly demonstrated a zero-day flaw that compromised Google’s Chrome browser, but they turned down Google’s offer of a $60,000 reward if they would share how it worked. What happened to the exploit is unknown.

No U.S. government agency has gone on the record as saying that it buys zero-days. But U.S. defense agencies and companies have begun to publicly acknowledge that they intend to launch as well as defend against cyberattacks, a stance that will require new ways to penetrate enemy computers.

General Keith Alexander, director of the National Security Agency and commander of the U.S. Cyber Command, told a symposium in Washington last October that the United States is prepared to do more than just block computer attacks. “Part of our defense has to consider offensive measures,” he said, making him one of the most senior officials to admit that the government will make use of malware. Earlier in 2012 the U.S. Air Force invited proposals for developing “Cyberspace Warfare Attack capabilities” that could “destroy, deny, degrade, disrupt, deceive, corrupt, or usurp the adversaries [sic] ability to use the cyberspace domain for his advantage.” And in November, Regina Dugan, the head of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, delivered another clear signal about the direction U.S. defense technology is heading. “In the coming years we will focus an increasing portion of our cyber research on the investigation of offensive capabilities to address military-specific needs,” she said, announcing that the agency expected to expand cyber-security research from 8 percent of its budget to 12 percent.

Defense analysts say one reason for the shift is that talking about offense introduces an element of deterrence, an established strategy for nuclear and conventional conflicts. Up to now, U.S. politicians and defense chiefs have talked mostly about the country’s vulnerability to digital attacks. Last fall, for example, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta warned frankly that U.S. infrastructure was being targeted by overseas attackers and that a “digital Pearl Harbor” could result (see “U.S. Power Grids, Water Plants a Hacking Target”).

Major defense contractors are less forthcoming about their role in making software to attack enemies of the U.S. government, but they are evidently rushing to embrace the opportunity. “It’s a growing area of the defense business at the same time that the rest of the defense business is shrinking,” says Peter Singer, director of the 21st Century Defense Initiative at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. “They’ve identified two growth areas: drones and cyber.”

Large contractors are hiring many people with computer security skills, and some job openings make it clear there are opportunities to play more than just defense. Last year, Northrop Grumman posted ads seeking people to “plan, execute and assess an Offensive Cyberspace Operation (OCO) mission,” and many current positions at Northrop ask for “hands-on experience of offensive cyber operations.” Raytheon prefaces its ads for security-related jobs with language designed to appeal to stereotypical computer hackers: “Surfboards, pirate flags, and DEFCON black badges decorate our offices, and our Nerf collection dwarfs that of most toy stores. Our research and development projects cover the spectrum of offensive and defensive security technologies.”

The new focus of America’s military and defense contractors may concern some taxpayers. As more public dollars are spent researching new ways to attack computer systems, some of that money will go to people like The Grugq to discover fresh zero-day vulnerabilities. And an escalating cycle of competition between U.S and overseas government agencies and contractors could make the world more dangerous for computer users everywhere.

“Every country makes weapons: unfortunately, cyberspace is like that too,” says Sujeet Shenoi, who leads the U.S.-government-sponsored Cyber Corps Program at the University of Tulsa. His program trains students for government jobs defending against attacks, but he fears that defense contractors, also eager to recruit these students, are pushing the idea of offense too hard. Developing powerful malware introduces the dangerous temptation to use it, says Shenoi, who fears the consequences of active strikes against infrastructure. “I think maybe the civilian courts ought to get together and bar these kinds of attacks,” he says.

The ease with which perpetrators of a computer attack can hide their tracks also raises the risk that such weapons will be used, Shenoi points out. Worse, even if an attack using malware is unsuccessful, there’s a strong chance that a copy will remain somewhere on the victim’s system—by accident or design—or accidentally find its way onto computer systems not targeted at all, as Stuxnet did. Some security firms have already identified criminal malware that uses methods first seen in Stuxnet (see “Stuxnet Tricks Copied by Criminals”).

“The parallel is dropping the atomic bomb but also leaflets with the design of it,” says Singer. He estimates that around 100 countries already have cyber-war units of some kind, and around 20 have formidable capabilities: “There’s a lot of people playing this game.”

maravich44's picture

sniff...

tears.

silverstool's picture

This is very clever

ag1969's picture

Lots of negative sentiment here today

It is difficult to sit back and watch the daily smackdowns.  Some of us have loved ones questioning our path.  Some of us have self doubt.  One starts to question whether the choice to hold real money instead of fake money is the right choice.  If there is one thing I have learned in the first half of my life, it is that every time I have ever stepped up to the plate to do what I believed was the right and just thing to do, a whole lot of people lined up to tell me why I shouldn't or couldn't.

Somewhere along the way I learned that success is nothing more than getting up just one more time than I have been knocked down.  So what do I do on days like today?  I get up as quickly as I can, because the only thing I know with absolute conviction is that tomorrow the sun will come up and the sun will go down.  If the metals don't begin their moonshot by the time the sun goes down, I am just one day closer.  Keep stackin everyone!  This too shall pass.

stackingdownunder's picture

thank you

for the book... great find. 

Like making comparisons between now and the Roman world, intellectually satisfying and helpful (i think) in showing people that everything (no matter how omnipotent is may seem)  at some point comes to an end. 

though I'd imagine you might be worrying  that Obama will bust out something like the  Constitutio Antoninian/Edict of Caracalla 212....  

why can't i get that reply button to work!!     

was for 

Read "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Edwin Lefevre (Jesse Livermore), the best book on investing/trading ever written, and you'll find that this is EXACTLY the same as it was about 1900! The manipulation has always been there. It's an integral part of the system and it must be "traded".

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