Washout?

My new printer is finally online and the pits close in about an hour. I'd better type fast.

I'm hoping that today's action is the final washout I mentioned yesterday. I did get filled on the July silver $35 call that I'd been hoping to buy. We'll see what happens next but, either way and with 4+ months on my back pocket, I feel pretty good about it regardless of what happens over the next few days. I see that several other folks, including Santa, are expecting something BIG in March. Maybe they'll be right. I certainly hope so. In the meantime, I'm patiently waiting for Ides+7, though I hope for a reversal and another shot at The Big Test before then.

Not helping things are the generally cautious-looking charts below. If all three (crude, copper and platinum) roll over and begin to trend downward, it certainly isn't going to help the cause of the metals in the short term. Obviously, if attempting to trade, you'd better be keeping and eye on them.

Next, in a sickening example of the manipulated and MOPEd sham the markets have become, read what I wrote on 2/1, as I was hurrying out the door to head to Vegas:

"Speaking of fiat debasement, the situation in The Pig is getting rather tenuous. The Bernank had better send out a Goon or two to talk it up soon or it risks failing at 79 and then 78. IF/WHEN this happens, look out below for a retest of the all-important 73 level. You can plainly see it here on this daily chart. Open your mind and you'll see a year-long, head-and-shoulder top. Therefore, a breakdown here would indeed be a big deal."

So, of course, what has happened in the two weeks since? Exactly that! And not only do we get one or two Fed Goons per day talking up the dollar, we also had Goldman's man in Europe talking down the euro and the G-7 talking up the yen. What a perfect storm of MOPE! Sickening.

So, now can they pull the same trick to rescue the 10-year note? Fckn-A right, they can! Just watch...

So where does this all leave is in the metals? In the crapper, of course! Let's see...In the 5 months since the announcement of QE∞ back in September, gold has fallen from $1780 to $1640. That's a drop of 7.9%. Yep, that makes a lot of sense! Even worse, silver has fallen from $35 to $30.50. That's -12.8%!! While The POSX has been defended at 79 four times! And the S&P500 is up 5%!! What a deal and a magnificent victory for central planning, control and manipulation!

Here, this is even worse: $85,000,000,000 per month in money printing confirmed in early December of last year. Since then, gold has fallen from $1725 to $1640 (-4.9%) and silver has fallen from $32.20 to $30.50 (-5.3%). And since this money began flooding the world in January, both metals are now unchanged. $120,000,000,000 new dollars created from nothing over the past 6 weeks and....nothing. No change at all in the price in gold and silver. But the S&P500 is up nearly 100 point since the first of year. Remarkable.

So, anyway, here are your charts:

I had a number of other things that I wanted to write about today but, after those last two paragraphs, I'm so depressed that I'm just going to quit, instead.

See you tomorrow.

TF

171 Comments

achmachat's picture

Gold Dog

basically there is no safe or unsafe way to post a picture. Once you post it, it's online and there's no access to your computer, so it's safe. The not-safe part is that you might be advertising to the entire world what you own, even though you specified that it's on its way to a safety deposit box.

If you post anything, make sure that there's nothing in the picture or in your profile here that can lead back to you. Then it's safe-ish.

Beastly Stack's picture

Very Interesting Thread

Bollocks's picture

ketchup

Heinz bought by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway for $28bn

Heinz ketchup bottles

Mr Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway company and private equity firm 3G have agreed to take over the food company, famous for its ketchup and baked beans.

In a statement, Heinz called the deal "historic", and the largest to date in the food industry.

Shares in Heinz soared in early trading in New York. They rose nearly 20% to hit the $72.50 price being offered.

The takeover has been approved by the company's board, but still needs to be voted on by shareholders.

"The Heinz brand is one of the most respected brands in the global food industry and this historic transaction provides tremendous value to Heinz shareholders," said Heinz chairman, president and chief executive William Johnson.

"We look forward to partnering with Berkshire Hathaway and 3G Capital, both greatly respected investors, in what will be an exciting new chapter in the history of Heinz."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21461779

Galearis's picture

@ancientmoney

Yes it is familiar ground and as a Canadian I find it pretty annoying when our own government tries to tell us that the Americans are our friends....Well, they have changed their tune slightly the last couple of years. Whatever the banksters/government cooperative have done to the US citizen they have done to their so-called friends too....

The US in its oil price rigging costs the Canadian economy 8-9 billion dollars per year; farm incomes have fallen too; and without the subsidies help the US farmer receives. There is a long list of exploitations most of which you are likely familiar...However, the average Canadian is little more aware than the American counterpart...

Sharing a common border is not a confidence builder either.

FWIW,

G.

brokerk22's picture

For your enjoyment WILLIE!

Man this is powerful stuff.  It IS coming dont let these paper games fool you!

http://www.silverdoctors.com/

Monedas's picture

"Man-nippleation Manifesto .... Manifest Destiny" !

They "Man-nippleated" Gold at $20 for years .... then at $35 for years .... then at $50 ......... then, then and NOW !  As the price gets higher .... the "Man-nippleation" lines in the sand .... get shorter .... and closer together .... and the sword gets duller !  We are getting down to the short strokes .... right before the thrill of ejaculating in Obama's and Obernanke's faces ! Have faith that reality .... is like a fart in the bath tub .... it will surface .... and be noticed .... it will wrinkle some noses .... and smell as sweet as fresh peanut butter turds .... to us !         Monedas        1929          Comedy Jihad Hoarders Have More Fun .... When The Good Guys Win World Tour   devil  

Gold Dog's picture

Thanks ACH

Turd knows who I am and I trust him.

All it would be is an ego "mine is bigger than yours" piece of self serving bullshit anyway.

Who wants to see two half oz Krugs and a roll of Eagles anyway!

Sometimes it's kind of hard not to share, my wife and kids yawn at the whole business having watched it for years.

Best,

Dog

TerryNorton's picture

@zman - let air out of the stock

Isn't this already planned?

Nobody but the Fed is buying bonds now, which means everyone else is putting their money into stocks. 

Since the spin is the illusion that the economy is in a recover because the DOW is cresting at the highs, anyone still with a job continues to pour money into IRA's and 401(k)'s. Isn't it great to have that wealth effect?

But now for the plan: 

How is the Fed going to back out of its position? If I'm not mistaken, there's talk of on the hill of converting some IRA and 401(k) money into treasuries. Gee, I wonder who has treasuries they'd like to back out of?

I can see it now, our bought-and-paid-for leaders in Washington make it the crime-of-the-day to begin converting retirement funds into U.S. Treasuries in the name of protecting the fund holders from stock market volatility and loss. Lo-n-behold, the DOW begins to fall. Gee, I wonder why? Less money going into stocks all of a sudden? So the spinners pat themselves on the back, in public media, for saving the savings of the consumer and retirees from the falling stock market as the treasuries and bonds rise some more.

So the Fed dumps all its crap into the retirement funds as the savers thank the government for having such wonderful vision and foresight. The interest rates stay low as the Fed sells to the public at higher and higher prices. Then POP!! The banks and the government are sitting pretty, and every person with a retirement account is in deep shit.

I'm sure glad this is just a fictional story. Everyone know this is America and we are blessed, and Superman is here to fight for truth, justice, and the American way.

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Big Buffalo's picture

Falling

Falling in a hole is usually quick and it hurts. Climbing back out is dirty, slow, and painfully.

Horst's picture

AWESOME prices. And in 1

AWESOME prices. And in 1 month when I am scheduled to make my next purchase we're probably at 35$ again. Meh :/

Strawboss's picture

A gravestone doji on GDX - daily chart

Here is the definition from Investopedia

A gravestone doji pattern is a common reversal pattern used by tradersicon1.png to suggest that a bullish rally or trend is about to reverse. It can also be found at the end of a downtrend, but this version is much more rare.

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gravestone-doji.asp#ixzz2KuQbRnTd

So - what we have is a "rare" situation where we have a gravestone doji - but it is found at the bottom of a correction - not near the top of a rally as is usual for this type of candlestick.

I think there is no question that it is in fact a gravestone doji.  A reversal imminent?

Look at a daily chart of GDX and look at todays candlestick.

madwaloo's picture

Washout?

There is a chart on Eric Degroot's blog post today that supports the idea of this market action as a washout.  I don't know how to copy in the chart but the link is:

http://edegrootinsights.blogspot.com/

Mammoth's picture

@madwaloo

Re: that photo (fourth on this thread)…the gold background is actually a genuine (empty) box of Russian chocolates!  While getting ready to toss it into the garbage…er…recycle bin last year, I had the sudden creative inspiration to use it as a display for some coins, so I composed and made that photograph.

On the RH side of that photo is the reverse side of an old seated liberty half; picked up that coin as well as a few others from a private individual selling them on Craigslist.  After a long drive to get there, all of the seller's coins looked pretty good except for that half - which had a hole drilled through at the top.

But the coin was dated 1954 - it was minted exactly 100 years before my sister was born!  The wheels started turning and I ended up buying a small silver ring (to slip through the hole) and a 22" silver chain.  Voila - a beautiful & unique pendant, which my sister was floored by, when she opened up that little wrapped box last Christmas morning.

Talk about making a rotten apple into applesauce!

Louie's picture

@babaganoush2307- Maker's Mark

Tonight might be a great night to test the purity of some MM.  Might have to run several tests to be conclusive. 

Is this the dip we should buy, or should we wait for another?

babaganoush2307's picture

Please continue to support this!!

You can say that your vote doesn't matter and maybe it doesn't but this amendment is definitely worth supporting and taking 5 minutes out of your day to write your state representative over.  Change has to start somewhere, and to me dropping out and supporting amendments such as these that show yes we do indeed do still care about our constitution is a great way to start!

yes

We are celebrating a historic moment: This week Move to Amend's WE THE PEOPLE AMENDMENT was introduced in Congress!

Our Congressional partners are Rick Nolan (MN) and Mark Pocan (WI). 
 

Representatives Nolan and Pocan are the first Congresspeople to stand up for the only solution that will return government control to “we the people.”  We thank them for supporting Move to Amend’s effort and for their commitment to American democracy.

Screen_Shot_2013-02-14_at_7.52.12_AM.png

The We the People Amendment is neither the first amendment which addresses Citizens United, nor will it be the last to be introduced in this session of Congress.  However, it is the only amendment that deals with myriad Supreme Court decisions granting constitutional rights to corporations and defining money as  speech. 

The introduction of the We the People Amendment is a momentous opportunity to shine a spotlight on corporate rule and bring others to the Move to Amend cause. Welcome to all of the thousands of new people who have signed up this week to participate in the cause!

We know that much education is still required inside and outside the halls of Congress. Although our movement is rapidly growing, it is still to reach critical mass -- the mass necessary to force action in Washington DC. Local organizing around local and state resolutions and initiatives remains foremost in our strategy.

Stay tuned to hear more about how to support the We the People Amendment through grassroots action; and how we can work together to build a movement to make real the promise of American democracy.

We have reached this milestone faster than we believed we would. Thank you for making this possible.

Yours for democracy,

Ashley Sanders, Ben Manski, Daniel Lee, David Cobb, Egberto Willies, George Friday, Jerome Scott, Kaitlin Sopoci-Belknap, Laura Bonham, Nancy Price

Move to Amend National Leadership Team

 

Texas Sandman's picture

Gravestone Doji

Not at the end of a rally, so not a gravestone doji.

I'm sorry, but I don't know what your point is.

I look at this & I see a bunch of selling with rejection of higher prices.

A lot of wind & fury, but signifying nothing.

Sheetrocker's picture

@zman

The Fed is not trapped. They don't need QE. Your 401K and IRA will buy lots of nice treasury bonds. Because your government wants to protect you.

Texas Sandman's picture

Sheetrocker

I wish I could say you're wrong, but I can't.

I think Willy Sutton robbed banks "because that's where the money is".

It's quite possible the US Government will rob 401Ks because "that's where the money is".

Need to be very careful & even consider eating the penalties to get the money out of their clutches.

Silver bars protected with a big gun impresses me as a safer bet.

Robespierre's picture

Look at What I Got For Valentines Day.. Keep Stacking Boys .....

Sexy Valentine's Day Comments

Sneakdoggiedog's picture

That SLV truckload of Silver

I am constantly coming back in my mind that that motherload of silver deposited into SLV safes last month.  The concept of the Cartel shorting SLV (or futures) until you get a lower price point you want and then going out and buying physical through another means at that lower price to close out a profitable short is genius. If they had tried to cover the huge short within SLV, they would have affected the paper market and caused a squeeze.  If the Cartel really covered with physical. as has been suggested, then why can't they rinse and repeat?  And what does that say about OI and the price point?

argentus maximus's picture

About the incremental

About the incremental increases of government, powers, intrusion, and all that.

We are seeing the end of a 30 year bull market of bonds, and the end of a bear market of Japanese equities.

Think about big government as a chart if you can.

I hypothesize that we are currently in the 2-10 year topping pattern for "peak government, the ending of a 60 year trend. If low interest rates are a measure of the power of big government, then we may be at the top of a 300 years trend upwards for government, since that's how low interest rates seem to have gotten.

There (possibly) will be much churning (distribution) as the government is unloaded from the insiders who rode it up, to the patsies who will be vilified or jailed as they ride it down.

The next bull market may actually be anarchy, that is to say, small government. Now this is not necessarily a good thing. The dark ages were a period where the big kings were swept away, and the local knight in armour became the local lord, with absolute power over his peasantry. Ever hear about those "rights of the manor" like eg to deflower any bride on the night before the marraige to her intended. They were really nice guys alright! I did read once that they taxed "their" peasants 25% of their produce, a nice income tax top limit, but I'm not an expert ....

So big government ... bad. No government ... even worse? At least we may see the bit in-between over the coming 30 years ... possibly.

Just thinkin' out loud.

Green Lantern's picture

Re: Very Interesting Thread

I hope TF takes note of this one!

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/4460/setup-big-trade?page=1#comment-...

I have to second that emotion.  I haven't encountered analysis that has captured my attention in such a way.   And if I understand correctly what he is saying, it is similar to what Sinclair has been saying.  they will crush gold and silver and then it's gonna rip.   But Sinclair doesn't give away his analysis or inside information.   Whatever happens, it makes for good drama.

the other HUGE paradigm change we could see on this site, if Argentus continues to be accurate, is that the events unfolding in the world are directly related to the price of gold!!!  I mean like no shit!  I just don't have the brains to combine the events and charts like Argentus.    If Argentus is right, and I hope he is, this could put an end to all the folks that say I just scroll past that I consider unrelated events.     Humble pie!

Argentus.  I like the way  you think.   Even if it doesn't pan out.  I still like it.  I hope my post doesn't bring any undue pressure to you.  Keep it coming.  

If you haven't checked it out,   there are couple of young ladies with thongs giving lap dances over in that forum.  I know totally unrelated.

TFMetals does attract some extraordinary thinkers!   Even if there was only one good post on this site every 60 days (there is much more), that gives you some insight that you didn't have before, that should be sufficient enough reason to feed the Turd and have a little gratitude for what he provides.

Yaaa Weee!   Getting interesting!

ag1969's picture

Hey Nana

On your recommendation, I bought Cracking the Code.  But did you know this?

http://tpgurus.wikidot.com/peter-hendrickson

He spent 2 years 9 months in prison

Beastly Stack's picture

THE KILL

What will globex have in store?

For those interested in trading or just thoughts please check

http://tradermartinstake.blogspot.com/2013/02/hope-your-not.html

Thanks

Strawboss's picture

Texas Sandman - Gravestone Doji

As I referenced in my post - the definition comes from Investopedia where they mention that in "rare" occasions - the doji can be found at the end of a correction - which would fit the current situation.

My suggestion is that this "may" be one of those "rare" occasions.

Texas Sandman's picture

argentus

I disagree with your descent to anarchy argument.  I think you also have to remember that in a sense, dictatorship is small government (one person making all the decisions).

What normally follows when civilizations end is dictatorship.  That's what I expect.

I guess the question is whether you think rioting masses will prevail against a heavily armed DHS with enough hollow point ammo to  plug every man,woman, and child in america 5X.  If you believe, the masses will prevail, then so will your viewpoint.  If not, we have dictatorship.

Bollocks's picture

@Green Lantern

Yes, interesting how argentus maximus appeared here just 3 weeks ago, set up shop in a forum that he started just 2 weeks ago, and has pretty-much been chatting away to himself since then with some great info.

VERY interesting stuff indeed.

Things are cookin' ...

Sheetrocker's picture

Nice Story

Saw this at JSMineset and thought it was worth sharing.

http://www.kctv5.com/story/21091289/homeless-man-returns-ring-accidentally-given-to-him

Sometimes the lowest and most destitute among us are more honorable than our bankers, politicians and leaders of industry.

meddle magic's picture

Sinclair is right here

just kick back and wait on the pM's it's that simple; trade oil or drillers, HAL just broke out. Even uranium looks better here than the PM's, CCJ dosen't look half bad. JMO

Texas Sandman's picture

Strawboss

Fine, whatever.  You want to play that, be my guest.

Sentiment in the miners is so awful, it might even work, either randomly or as cause & effect.

When I hear hoofbeats, I prefer to think of horses, not zebras.

Personally, I prefer things that are a bit more certain like that bullish hammer in silver I played with a bullish body and very high volume that we had a month or so ago.  That one with the volume & the bullish real body was a high probability play.

What I see in that candle (on GDX) is lots of selling & rejection of higher prices.  I would look at that & say you're more likely to get more selling tomorrow from frustrated longs.  The close was below the open making a bearish body.  And you didn't have a bunch of volume accentuating something unusual happening.

It would take a breakout to change my mind.

It's not enough to look at the candle pattern.  You need to look behind it to the trader psych implications.

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