Pailin's Trading Corner

Just to clarify.  I never use just one indicator.  The narrative has to have internal validity from many points of view when making a decision about the market.  That is what I look for and miners are only one arm.  It's not perfect because nothing is, but it helps.

Edit: nice upturn in miners at close.  let's hope metals continue to rise (or not)

I've been lurking for a while at Pailin's corner; & this is my first post here I think. The perma-bullishness on Main Street is not where I'm at.

I agree with Rico that the CBs in the dollar camp (which includes Europe, Japan, and most ex colonies such as India) are all in cahoots together, and that the 'currency wars' that are talked of are just theatre. China, Russia, Iran & other 'aliens' on the other hand, and maybe Brazil, are more like true competitors, when it comes to the crunch.

What a spectacular coincidence that as the Yen implodes, that the Euro strengthens at a pace consistent with its weighting in the dollar index, to keep the dollar index simply static. You couldn't make it up. 

However, if we take the view that hot war is used to distract the populace from the sordid detail that economic implosion is endemic in the cycle of the debt-based financial system, then supposed 'currency war' is one of the means to get the wagon moving. It creates the necessary atmosphere of hostility as the operating manual requires, as a prelude to the war of words, and then the shooting war. When the financial system implodes, as it is destined to do every generation or two, the war is scape-goated for the collapse.

The point of interest, is not that CBs are at war with each other, but rather that they cooperate in facilitating the shooting war. Some writers even suggest that in spite of the official record of the event, that the German CB was represented at Bretton Woods, even as WW2 was raging.

This is just an opinion piece; can't provide proofs.

very good point. war is profitable, right? so what does it matter if it's a "currency war" as rickards would have us believe or a hot war. either way, money changes hands and instrinsic value, but life and death go on.

A simple question.  Why does everyone always frame things in terms of bullish or bearish?  I agree with your analysis Run, so this is not pointing a finger at you.  Bulls, bears, again stale jargon, that informs little and leaves you with little to interpret anything.  Is it not best to consider that any instrument can go any direction and let the information take you there?  Sorry, I run into this all the time with just about all subject matters and I find it quite dispiriting. Just a thought.

Since its not trading time, let me recount an early experience to highlight the above.  In my training I would routinely visit patients to admit them to hospital without reading their charts.  It was once suggested to us by a dearly loved professor so as to strengthen our diagnostic abilities.

So one day during my obstetrics/gynecology  rotation where the majority of women were admitted with routine diagnoses, the usual: fibroids, prep for D and C, sometimes more serious matters, I enter the room.

Handsome woman I thought.  Tall, maybe 5'11' blond, very anxious but courteous.   I noticed a peculiar thing but put it aside, in pursuit of my obligations which was to conduct a proper history and physical and of course make a proper diagnosis.  It was 3:00pm and one of the first things this pleasant woman utters is that she is ravenous and wonders why have they have not brought up her food yet.  I thought, hmm, never heard of patients complain of that before, so I proceeded. 

The usual introductory question: so tell me, what brings you to hospital today?   Long pause, a very nervous pause.  Patient asks me, you haven't read my chart?  No I quipped, I make it a point not to so that I might glean from your story directly what it is you might suffer from.  Again a pregnant (no pun) and uncomfortable pause. It was clear I was in trouble.  After all, I was expecting the usual, fairly routine and simple history with all admitting orders, also routine, to follow.

Glancing away from her at first I found the courage to look straight at her. 

You don't know she said, do you?  At this point my blood pressure is surely making my veins bulge visibly from the end of the room, my mind is starting to close down the way it does when danger is imminent but you don't know why and I mumble something like, ah, no, not really.

Well she says in this quasi tenor voice, I was a man once and I am here for reconstructive labial surgery.

Now being fully aware of her intense anxiety, less about the surgery, and more about my reaction, I take a deep breath, resolute about conducting this interview with sensitivity and professionalism.  The story of this woman's life was horrendous, the aftershocks of trying to be a woman searching for a meaningful heterosexual relationship was well, let me say a first in my early career.  The physical exam which I had to conduct as part of the admission process equally a challenge. 

Soon after this 5'5" father arrives with a box of chocolates for his daughter.  Clearly he had come to terms, the kindest man.

So why do I tell this story?  Because you never know what you have until you read what is in front of you.  In retrospect her hunger was that of a physiological man,  as her still muscular physiogonomy required nourishment of a sort different from a woman.  It was a powerful learning experience.  I can still visualize the room, the patient, the father and my reaction after several decades.

Just in case anyone is tracking I am no longer short.  I put on a trailing stop that popped me out before close at $31.10.  

Hope you made some good play money on that :)

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1174471-critical-days-ahead-for-precious...

A good analyst who is also sitting on the fence.

Bum, always nice to see someone making money.

Maybe this is contratian because I am a god at picking the opposite direction at exactly the wrong time but I think we move down from here

We only need to calculate how much covering has

to be done, how many stops this would trip, and

how much buying fresh longs will be adding, and

we'd be millionaires before Po#AectBo (I think).