Pailin's Trading Corner

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JustAnotherLemming
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Just in case anyone forgot...

Draghi Speaks (again!) @10:30 EST TOMORROW!!!

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Also, to keep up with jawboning eurocrats etc. (like Weidmann today - WTF?!):

https://twitter.com/zerohedge

redwood
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So what's your guess Lurker

So what's your guess Lurker for tomorrow.  I have been thinking for some time that the EURO has been used as shield to keep the dollar down (the boyz don't want a high dollar).  So the Dragon in is inimitable lizard like ways will reverse course and dampen his tone from last week.  That is purely a guess. 

redwood
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Pope Benedict resigns Feb.

Pope Benedict resigns Feb. 28, 2013.  I guess he wasn't taking orders very well.

"Canonical experts are clear that only acting pontiffs are infallible. But they’ve not really had to grapple with the idea that fallibility could slip away."

No disrespect to Christians (I was raised as a good Catholic) but you have to admit that's a funny line.

JustAnotherLemming
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Running the stops to the upside and then down?

However I see a bounce off the second blade of the uptrending fan on the 4H chart (from November 13 to the high) so I'm being cautious.

I'm watching the 1.3530-3510 level (last blade, biggest downtrending fan) and 1.3430-3390 (second blade, same fan).

That said so I may have missed the boat @ 1.3430-20, after last week I thought it best to avoid jawboning shenanigans.

Also a bit cross about missing the sterling short last night, I try not to open trades when I'm drinking (nearly did anyway though) props to those that did catch it - that was a nice move!

I had a little look at thursday's eurogeddon and shiny things and they got bid once EUR/USD had fallen ~157 pips. That IMHO is very interesting...

Loved the weekend posts BTW! I'm not at home ATM so I've just been lurking, hence no "HAPPY WEEKEND ALL!", was going to do it from the train but LH beat me to it.

EDIT:

EUR/USD has popped up again like a bunny in the headlights, tempted but I'm going to leave it alone, that thing's got teeth!

GLTA!!!

(Hat tipped myself by accident - sorry, was trying to hit refresh! mmm wine.)

JustAnotherLemming
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Just spotted this...

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/gold-showing-ema-compression-with-targets/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+afraidtotrade%2FNRSd+%28Afraid+to+Trade.com+Blog%29

...didn't see it posted here, thought it should be.

These guys are on good form too (thanks Atlee!):

http://marketweeklyupdate.com/2013/02/10/02102013-market-update/

They've got some new EUR/USD and HUI charts this week (and other goodies).

HappyNow
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Ag low enough

To get me to buy today.  Let's see what's next.

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Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.

Lord Henry
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I'm no metal chartist but

   One glance at the dailies and I see destitution and

despair, despondency and disillusionment.  Prolly another

coupla down days, then some covering towards the weekend

is my dour dissemination.

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madcow
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weekend chatter

damn... looks like i missed out on some good conversation over the weekend. yes

rocoach
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Armstrong reminder

Probably as good a time as any to remind everyone of Armstrong's bearish view of gold going into 2013:

Copyright Martin Armstrong All Rights Reserved January 1st, 2013

We have a very serious problem. In gold, everyone is loaded to the gills expecting hyperinflation that will never materialize and governments are getting outright nasty. We have THREE Monthly Bearish Reversals that have now lined up in gold at 15470, 15413, and 15323. We have a huge gap from there to 11589 and this is not real good. Gold closed 2012 higher than it did for 2011 on the 13th year up. That is by no means good at all. If these reversals are elected, look out below. We may have to clean house before gold can resume the uptrend.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013-a-snapshot-of-the-future-gold-array-for-2013/

redwood
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http://www.marketwatch.com/st

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-edges-higher-as-dollar-weakens-2013-02-10

Here are the alleged reasons for gold's selloff today. The G7 meeting trying to dampen currency war and the Chinese New Year. G7 will be meeting end of week, so gold could sell off considerably in the interim.  Gold closed at 1648 today, a critical support level so tomorrow will be important. 

JustAnotherLemming
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Ok, so I may have decided that I needed more screens...

...and caught the redeye home.

Today is obviously gonna be a big day!

GLTA (bitchez)!!!

(See you on the other side!)

Titus Andronicus
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Hi guys, Sorry I've been so

Hi guys,

Sorry I've been so AWOL.  After a few very slow months for my trading, I sort of dropped off line to take a break and wait for "my stuff to kick in".

I've been watching this blog from time to time, but I just kept resisting the temptation to login and say high.  My trading started to do well and I didn't want to change anything that I was doing.  (Even as I type this I can feel my spidey sense tingling.)  For the most part, I'm going to continue on in lurker mode.

Silver COT

With the commercial net position again hitting the "bottom of the channel", we are either going to see the price of silver drop, or there's going to be a monster short covering rally.  I agree with Clive Maund's post that a drop is silver is a strong possibility.  I'm leaning towards that, myself.  That's my guess.

In general, my guess is that the very low commercial net position in silver is not going to go much lower than here.  From that, I guess that we're either going to get: 1) a commercial short squeeze, or; 2) a drop in price (which I think is much more likely).

Clive Maund:

http://www.safehaven.com/article/28757/silver-market-update

http://www.safehaven.com/article/28758/gold-market-update

Armstrong has been adding posts to his blog almost daily.  That's one I've been reading completely every day.  Trader Dan too.

Louise Yamada had a good post on KWN recently:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/2/6_Yamada_-_4_Spectacular_Gold_%26_Silver_Charts.html

For me, I stopped listening to people that do at least consider the possibility that gold will not correct after 13 straight years up.  It's not that they're wrong, it's just that the advice seems to be more for the buy and hold stackers.  Armstrong, Trader Dan and Yamada will at least consider this.  (Obligatory disclaimer: I am long physical PMs and I too believe that it will be a good investment in the long run.  I am a stacker, but I don't trade completely differently than I stack.)

I don't mean to jump in after being away for so long with a mostly bearish post, it's just that I wanted to say high and throw out my latest take.

Platinum(PL)/Palladium(PA) COT

Keep in mind that one of my last posts was a bearish take on platinum as it was going up ... and continued to keep going after my post.  (Actually that post helped convince me that I needed to drop things and take a break.)

After looking back over the history of price vs COT for PA/PL, I can clearly see that my ideas about the gold and silver COT do not cross over well historically to PA/PL.  The PA/PL COTs are even more "bearish" today, but I would not place any bets on this as my definition of a "bearish" COT chart has not been historically reliable for PA/PL.

The commercial net position in platinum and palladium are both at all-time-record lows; with the OI at all-time-record highs.  And these COT factors have both clearly gone parabolic.  Those COT charts scare the hell out of me.  I recommend you take a look at those if you get a moment.

The commercials are extra-super-beyond-ultra short PA and PL.

But a very interesting and very important fact is that the last time this happened, around Dec 2009, the price of PL went up strongly while PA skyrocketed.  Go figure.  There are either industry dynamics which have a significant impact on the meaning of the COT in these markets (i.e. legitimate business hedging), or the commercials got royally screwed on that one.  (And there are other, similar times which wildly do not work as I would have expected.)

So I have no idea how to interpret the PA/PL COTs.  But those COT charts are very weird!

Happy Trading!

ivars
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My order at 31,75 did not get

My order at 31,75 did not get filled ( meager 1000 Oz) though the platform shows bid dropped to 31,71. I asked to explain, so far no answer, but..what shall I do as things progress? OK, own decision..Will wait for further price movements, the order is still there.

What does PARKED order status mean? Have never seen such...

Meanwhile, made 1000 USD on USD JPY by going long with limit order for profit. These are good if one is not able to attend  computer also excludes too fast reactions to charts.

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ivars
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Seems I will have not to do

Seems I will have not to do anything and will get my silver at 30,75 wondering if that is low enough though.

GSR continued to move up yesterday on weaker PM prices as it has broken the triangle last week to the upside, and is still within well working fork:

Early today it has also broken through the previous resistance testing it as support, but for that we shall wait for the end of day. It could be that is also has a little pullback today. If it continues to move up to the top of the fork, it is 54,5 or silver around 30,4.

I am posting GSR fork as I can not find any gold or silver fork that would be working right now, at least not short term. (1-2 months)

I wonder what the NK nuke test will do to the USDx and PMs. Have not read any analysis- anyone?

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Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation.

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ivars
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Bought at 30,79...

Bought at 30,79 ask, i got this terrible 6 cents spread.

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Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation.

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Titus Andronicus
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Tulving Inventory

Very interesting development in the Tulving inventories and premiums.

90% silver has gone through the roof (spot + 99c), but at least you can buy some.  (They were all sold out recently.)

On the other hand, 100 oz JM/Engelhard bars are back in stock at spot + 49c.  Good deal!

So my take on this is that the silver bullion buying is cooling off.  (i.e. the ratio of buyers to sellers is leveling off towards more even.)

If the price drops much, it should be interesting to watch what happens to the 100 oz JM premiums and inventories.

ivars
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Lets see. 50 day MA is moving

Lets see. 50 day MA is moving down in direction of 200 day MA. What if 200 d MA and support (fat blue line) coming from June are together strong enough for some time?

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Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation.

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Lord Henry
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@ ivars

IMO you cannot put too much faith in your charts

this week cos with little or no Asian buying the

volume factor which is the primary generator of

the chart will be screwy and unreliable to put it

mildly (in my stupid opinion admittedly).

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pailin
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Titus...nice to see you

Titus...nice to see you around :)

For gold I like Mexican 50s. Noticed two things recently -

1. Tulving moved them (and other oddball foreign gold) off main page. Who knows if that means anything?

2. Goldmart (the next cheapest over spot) increased premium from +11.99 to +14.99 over melt. Not huge (25% increase), but considering these have been 'dead' for years and years...it's something?

Nothing to report on silver side. 200 dma is 30.656 today (Netdania).

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I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild

Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell

ivars
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@Lord Henry

I expect prices to undershoot the chart limit, as they did when they went to 29,25,  but hopefully not bellow 30,4 ( step one) or 29, smthg (it was below 29,5 I remember) from my earlier long term log chart. At least medium term (few weeks?)  I hope there will be some rebound, so I am ready to step out at 31,95 or a bit over 32 if we get there.

If its goes below 29,smthg , then I will sell with nice loss  and sit and wait.

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Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation.

P.A.M.Dirac

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