Thunder Road

Our pal, Paul Mylchreest, has written another outstanding research piece.

Near and dear to our hearts, this one deals with silver. And not a moment too soon, given today's nasty price action and the current plethora of bearish forecasts.

In this report, Paul identifies a few, key cycles within the silver market and uses these cycles to make a very bold prediction. I don't want to steal his "Thunder" and I want you to read the entire report...but...suffice it to say, he thinks the next 6 months are going to be very exciting.

TF

Thunder Road Report -February 2013 by Turd Ferguson

59 Comments

tobydaniel's picture

@Groaner

Hey Groaner, yeah, its pretty unbelievable. For instance, I bought a ton of slave queens and Koalas. The slave queens will get you no less than 50 dollars an ounce as long as you have the reserve price set in. The Koalas are great as well. Check out the 2007's! They are going for 75-100 dollars a coin. Use Paypal. No scams at all. You can literally pick them up at a coin shop for 40. The Slave queens will go for around 35 or 36. I bought mine for 33. You might think I am giving away these ideas but there are tons of coins you can do this with. With that said, I don't care about the paper price. My prediction is that we never get above 35 this whole year. And if we happen to, I could care less regardless. My coins just go up in premium. The paper price is so incredibly meaningless. I used to be one of those people who was up and down depending on what the paper price did. Now, I would laugh my head off if they pushed it down to 29 or 28. My coins will still be worth 50 or more. Screw em. Anyone trying to figure out these paper markets are just being played. 

dropout's picture

Regulations & Regulators

As long as events go the regulators way, then the regulations are pointed to as being 'sage and wise.'

As soon as the train falls off the tracks, then you begin to see the regulators excuses.

Mislabeling? Confusing a horse, donkey and cow? Pure unadulterated, 100% B.S.

The European Union bureaucrats and unelected politicians in Brussels, must be having conniption fits today!

Their much ballyhooed "regulations" and trading "laws" have let them down.

Now, sit back and watch the finger pointing!

CaribSurfKing's picture

@tobydaniel If those are standard silver rounds...

...you have some very uniformed buyers on ebay!

balz's picture

Strange

In the report, the GSR does not fall below 45 in 2011-2012, while it went as low as 32 in April 2011 if I remember well. Did I miss something?

Groaner's picture

toby

How about posting that ebay link to see the prices you are talking about.

If so, I am in the wrong business.. losing money.

Silver_investor's picture

Sprott PM Round Table

I haven't been reading the comments here lately, so someone may have already mentioned this. But Sprott Asset Management is holding a Precious Metals Round Table discussion tomorrow at 2:00 p.m. E.S.T. You can register here.

https://event.on24.com/eventRegistration/EventLobbyServlet?target=registration.jsp&eventid=579230&sessionid=1&key=70B829852A33CD255CC2A43ED63D18D0&sourcepage=register

CaribSurfKing's picture

@SIlverbee If you bought in the last 2 years...

...you probably feel sick right now ( apart from a few spikes down to $26 )

If you cannot purchase a house now because you invested in Silver at the wrong time, you just took a lesson in investing 101.

Never ever buy near the top of anything if you need that money in the near future.

Secondly, you are fighting the Fed.

Although we may all be right in terms of our understanding of economics, fighting the Fed is a waste of time!

tobydaniel's picture

Groaner

Here is the link to one of my sold coins from a week ago.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/111009552195?ssPageName=STRK:MESOX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1561.l2649

Now, you can sell many of these at a time. I am currently selling a lot of 20 Slave Queens for 50 a piece. Nobody has bid on it yet so I am just figuring out how many of these things people are willing to buy. Since the Slave Queens are only getting more popular, not as many sell. But in regards to Koalas, they sell like hotcakes. You can sell the 2011's for up to 45 dollars. The 2008's are going for 75-100 dollars a coin. Oh, and the 1/2 ounce silver 2008 koala's are going for almost 100 bucks.

Now, you can also sell monster boxes for around 18K. Miles Franklin seems to sell some of those but I have been unsuccessful. 

Groaner's picture

This headline just out from Market Watch why gold is down.

JPM, GS, HSBC and other government agents smash gold and silver to keep up the allusion that all the FIAT paper is worth something.

ClinkinKY's picture

Today's Toon Provided By The Washington Post...Wow...

...I "coulda' been a contenda' by posting this on new thread but I didn't want to intrude:)

And "First" doesn't mean a whole lot anymore based on results from the last 5 yearswink

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 

Obama: Job of debt reduction nearly done

By Lori Montgomery, Monday, February 11, 11:29 AM

One thing you won’t hear when President Obama delivers his State of the Union address Tuesday: An ambitious new plan to rein in the debt.

In recent days, the White House has pressed the message that, if policymakers can agree on a strategy for replacing across-the-board spending cuts set to hit next month, the president will pretty much have achieved his debt-reduction goals.

“Over the last few years, Democrats and Republicans have come together and cut our deficit [over the next decade] by more than $2.5 trillion through a balanced mix of spending cuts and higher tax rates for the wealthiest Americans. That’s more than halfway towards the $4 trillion in deficit reduction that economists and elected officials from both parties say we need to stabilize our debt,” Obama said during his weekend radio address.

By the administration’s math, Washington needs to enact only another $1.5 trillion in 10-year savings to hit the $4 trillion target, White House economic adviser Jason Furman told reporters last week. At $1.2 trillion, the automatic cuts, known as the sequester, quite nearly fit the bill.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/obama-job-of-debt-reduction-nearly-done/2013/02/11/3e5b8008-7458-11e2-95e4-6148e45d7adb_print.html

CaribSurfKing's picture

@tobydaniel Any moral issues with selling on ebay?

Surely we here to help the stupid people out and educate them etc...? Not rip them off another way?

SIlverbee's picture

Maybe that IS the best investment strategy

Buy crap fiat paper investments, let them rise, cash out and buy PMs! Doh.

Got to get the balance right with exposure to paper though.

Talking of crap that Turd burger video of a couple of days ago... I think it was a hoax.

tobydaniel's picture

I dont feel bad about selling for such high premiums

If people are not willing to do their homework on their purchases, that's their deal. I do not make them buy anything. They choose for themselves. Personally I love it. I don't need to waste my time and energy waiting for that PAPER price "explosion". I don't buy it. I don't think we will get a PAPER price explosion as Ive stated in my recent posts. That's why I choose this route. I play the physical market. Physical will always go up in price as you can clearly see. The paper price is so rigged, they may never let it go again.

CaribSurfKing's picture

Golds break of its 4 year uptrend looking more confirmed...

To the downside.

This is worrying! Yamada is probably watching this closely!

Dr Jerome's picture

tobydaniel

Those Slave queen rounds are HOT right now, plus you have a well written ad that feeds the buyers a bit of history and assures satisfaction with the process. Free shipping also increases the bids. Well done.

Are other rounds going for enough over spot to be worth flipping?

tobydaniel's picture

Dr. Jerome

Yes, the Liberty Chick does well too. I dont have any right now but if you look, they are selling wonderfully. Check out the other coins that were sold by silver shield. They are going for 75 bucks or more. Pretty amazing. People really like them. Do your homework on physical prices and see which ones give the most premiums. That will help you out a ton and then when you are at a coin shop and see different types of coins, you will instantly know if they are worth buying. You then will never care about the paper price again:)

That_1_Guy's picture

Toby Daniel

I am in la jolla good to see another san diegan.

So i sold some coins on ebay. I offered them on craigslist ....i got an offer of 50$ a coin. Ill stick with ebay.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/121049937927?ssPageName=STRK:MESOX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1561.l2649

http://www.ebay.com/itm/121060095236?ssPageName=STRK:MESOX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1561.l2649

Above is some of mine. :)

These puppies just bought me 3 freedom girls each.

Rico's picture

There's a sucker born every

There's a sucker born every minute...These are the morons that are going to force a showdown with JPM??

That_1_Guy's picture

Hmmmm.

I like the SBSS coins. I know they are real silver...can you say that about your ASE or RCMs? Suckers....lol.

AlexCojones's picture

SR Steve, Scrap Sterling and Paul's Report

From my perspective as a Sterling Silver Hunter at thrift stores, the scrap has DRIED UP. I haven't found a single piece in over a year on the shelves. Used to find some vase, candlestick, bowl, cup or spoon frequently. Now even the odd bit of blackened sterling jewelry they put into their display case carries a large price- -$2-3 a gram. SRSRocco is correct and this fellow Paul seems to echo our own savant, Steve.

Sterling Scrap is going, going, gone.

Pauls's Quote "If we add the recycling of silver scrap, total annual “incremental” supply of silver was 1,018m oz. in 2011 according to the GFMS consultancy. GFMS estimated that total“fabrication” demand for silver in 2011 was 877m oz. Fabrication is defined as industrial applications, photography, jewellery, silverware and coins & medals. This left only 141m oz. of incremental supply for “Implied Net Investment” – which is nothing.."

Mariposa de Oro's picture

to Silverbee

I had a similar conversation with my boyfriend.  After reflecting, I realized that I'd had similar conversations with others during the tech and housing bubbles.   I obeyed the herd during the tech bubble and had my money sent to money heaven.   So when the house flipping and HELOCs-for-stupid-shit craze was raging, I endured the insults and stayed out of it.  Unlike my now bankrupt or majorly underwater friends who fell for that shit, I'm now debt free and managed to sell my modest home with about 22k in my pocket.  I look at the Stock Market craziness in the same light.   The herd will be sheared, again.  When it happens, they'll say "Oh, but it always comes back'.  And it does.  They aren't even with it enough to realize that they've just lost massive purchasing power.  Whatever.  Not my problem.  I will, once again, endure the insults, and do what I know is right for me.  It's easier for me since I'm not tied to another person/married.  Single and lovin' it.

Mariposa de Oro's picture

@Tobydaniel

If people are not willing to do their homework on their purchases, that's their deal. I do not make them buy anything. They choose for themselves.

I'll bet that's how the Banksters justified all that mortgage fraud.  frown

onealpha's picture

@tobysaniel

Dont forget the ebay fees and shipping. 

That $50 sale will net you 43.75 before shipping.  I just shipped 8 individual coins via USPS for $2.41 each. So after paying USPS and ebay you get to keep $41.34 after a $50 sale.  I do it myself so i am not being critical of your ebay post but only to point out that it is not quite as profitable as you proposed.  I am very selective of what I sell also for that exact reason.  Also, for anyone who thinks selling rounds at a marked up price is taking advantage i say NUTZ!  People who pay markups on ebay do so willingly and mostly for convenience. Maybe they are lazy or like the simplicity and safety of ebay. Either way, i am profiting for taking a risk and ordering enough up front to make it profitable. If prices drop or the item isnt popular as expected I can lose money. 

You can calculate ebay fees here http://www.newlifeauctions.com/calc.html

hz's picture

31 year theory

I know you get attacked for TA at times but the 31-year-cycle theory referred to in this particular document is based on the early 1980s spike being the result of some kind of logical math even though he correctly mentions the Hunt Bros' influence in the same breath?! We even also know CME shenanigans were to blame for the volatility back then. That's an oversimplification but anyhow, if you've got the time Michael Maloney pointed out this great write up from Playboy on the Hunt Bros silver fiasco a while back:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/54739808/Silver-Finger-by-Harry-Hurt-III-September-Issue-1980-Playboy (some people actually do read it for the articles)

As always, thanks for sharing though, Turd.

tobydaniel's picture

You cant compare me to a banker Mariposa

You crack me up. Really? Your comparing me to a banker? I am not lying to people. I do honest business. I ship on time like I say I will and will deliver just what they ask for. I give them their shipping code and make the coin presentable. People are going to pay someone else if its not me. I want that person to be me. I don't put people in debt so that they loose everything they have ever earned to make a sweet profit. Thats what bankers do.

Also in terms of profitability, I do this on many sites. The Amazon.com site that I do it on is more expensive to sell, but I charge way more. Just go on Amazon and see how much they are charging for a simple silver eagle. They go for 47 dollars many times than not.

silver66's picture

selling silver on ebay etc

Let me get this straight in my head. We rail on government over regulation. We rant about socialism and the NWO. Man needs to be free to make his own decisions is the battle call. There is no moral hazard, people must be able to make decisions good or bad. Did I get the general pattern right??

Now Tobydaniel, puts a product on ebay, charges a premium for it. Does not force anyone to buy from him. I assume he wants to make a spread over what he paid, which sounds reasonable to me. He does what he says he will do(not to common today, but I digress). People engage him in a transaction

And we have faction on this board that has a problem with this. I would suggest to those posters to look in the mirror and ask themselves why they are mad at him. Because quite frankly I think it is great. Build up people, don't tear down. If you are ticked because you are not doing it, don't take it out on him

Silver66

P.S. this is draft 2 without the bad words in it that I originally typed :-)

Patrancus's picture

sterling scrap is going going gone

makes sense to me as I related in a previous post, the melters are telling their birds expect significantly higher prices soon. 

and this ain't a plug from a paid pumper, it comes to me only as the crow flies.

Mariposa de Oro's picture

Tobydaniel

I didn't compare you to a banker.  I merely suggested that's the same justification.  YOU compared yourself to a banker.  I think thou doth prostest too much.....

Mariposa de Oro's picture

Not mad at Tobydaniel

I'm just wondering why if he feels he provides an honest service to his customers, then why did he post this?

If people are not willing to do their homework on their purchases, that's their deal. I do not make them buy anything. They choose for themselves.

and this:

People are going to pay someone else if its not me.

Why didn't he just come out and say he provides an honest service that his customers are happy with?  Pardon my confusion.

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