Pailin's Trading Corner

39207 posts / 0 new
Last post
Deluxe186
Deluxe186's picture
Offline
Joined: 09/03/2011
Posts: 403
someone also bet on the xlf

someone also bet on the xlf dropping before April in a big way....sequester set for march 1st I guess....

Bum in the libr...
Bum in the library...'s picture
Offline
Joined: 10/17/2011
Hat Tips: 336
Posts: 533
Silver is so weak right now

Silver is so weak right now to me too.  We have infinite money printing and zero percent interest rates and it still gets its butt kicked.  Any hint at all of the possibility of rate increases or slowed down money printing and it gets totally hammered.  Best bet for me is TA and patience...

Lord Henry
Lord Henry's picture
Offline
Joined: 09/10/2012
Hat Tips: 1121
Posts: 700
Pailin look away now......

Short Euro was a well - timed trade, but screwed up

on long Yen by two days. That neutralised the week,

but then did a v bad gold daytrade so crap week overall.

Decided that the only remedy lies somewhere within the

obscure ranks of the junior minor sector. Am currently

pondering 17 carefully selected candidates, including a

few pm oriented hopefuls, but also microcaps with interests

in potash, nickel and scandium. Yes, Pailin, sorry, scandium

mining juniors. Did try to pre-warn you . Will publish findings

- currently pending further analysis. These will be the sort of

stocks that you just throw away the contract notes, and ask your

broker to send a valuation statement every  15 years or so .....     

__________________

Wake me up at HUI 200.
No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.

Lord Henry
Lord Henry's picture
Offline
Joined: 09/10/2012
Hat Tips: 1121
Posts: 700
Yes, mad Henry's going back, Jack & do it again......

Steely Dan

__________________

Wake me up at HUI 200.
No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.

redwood
redwood's picture
Offline
Joined: 08/09/2011
Hat Tips: 10500
Posts: 5419
You gotta love the irony. 

You gotta love the irony.  Silver dipped to 31.35 and seconds before close it lands on 31.40, again. This isn't by chance.  Trend remains intact.  Good w/e to all.

Rico
Rico's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 6337
Posts: 1892
@JAL, Naked shorting is

@JAL,

Naked shorting is endemic.  The whole game is done with a wink and a nod.  If it's any comfort, Wall Street has always been about screwing the suckers, so today's shenanigans are really no worse than in the past--it just seems so, because today you hear about it.

Re the miners, they will have their day, particularly the ones I think of as "actual" companies.  They are going concerns, and have real profit/loss statements--they're not going out of business.  You can also play the royalty angle, but again, you gotta get in low.

There are many companies in the broader market that are just kicking ass, right now.  They have money to burn, pay great dividends, and are going from strength to strength.  I do think there will be a decent correction sometime in H1, so I have plenty of dry powder.  It cuts down on your returns not to be all in when the market is rockin' and rollin', but that's called risk control.

There's always something you can try to make money on--that's why it never gets old!

ivars
ivars's picture
Offline
Joined: 09/26/2011
Hat Tips: 23856
Posts: 3316
Just to make sure I have a

Just to make sure I have a proof there is no long term capping:

SILVER is exactly on its 2001-2013 exponential price rise CURVE median, represented in this semi log plot as straight line:

Movements above and below exponential price rise return to the exponential price raise MEDIAN, what we see since 2011 as well. They can overshoot to below, as in 2008, but so far the MEDIAN of the fork after 2011 deviation (overbought) has withstood (on parallel line slightly below it)  4 monthly attempts to break it. There could be more, but as time goes, the target moves higher. 

Today this parallel support line has value of 29,40. That is the bottom which in my opinion should not be taken out  ( on monthly basis) in February as long as fundamentals ( USG debt ) show no sign of rapid improvement (stabilization/reduction). I have to check if relative value of USG debt to GDP has better correlation with gold prices or as good as the absolute value in USD. It could be so, as it makes sense in terms of debt serviceability /instability risk. 

So my claims of nonexistent long term capping as it can not force the fundamentals is supported by this simple chart, and even medium term capping looks more like normal correction. Daily trade tricks happen as they should , but, short of silver crossing 44 USD in Feb -March ( which I do not believe will happen as the resolution of debt issues and 2011 correction is around June-August 2013)  there seems no major reasons to see INCREASED or ACCELERATED  systemic problems compared to how they are perceived by majority of investors. Until then, its all the normal short term future guessing game with even shorter term trading games.

__________________

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation.

P.A.M.Dirac

ivars
ivars's picture
Offline
Joined: 09/26/2011
Hat Tips: 23856
Posts: 3316
Same for gold. Here long term

Same for gold. Here long term support is reached but has not been tested lately, so move below is possible:

__________________

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation.

P.A.M.Dirac

Rico
Rico's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 6337
Posts: 1892
@ivars,Your charts certainly

@ivars,

Your charts certainly demonstrate why a buy and hold model for physical purchases has worked well the past several years.  You just buy it, put it away, forget about the fluctuations, and hope that you won't suddenly need to sell it during one of the inevitable corrections.  It's really not any different than other hard assets.  I'm sure one could plot out similar charts, extending over decades, or even centuries, showing the inexorable rise in the nominal price of, say, Goya paintings or medieval manuscripts.  This is just a function of finite supply, and currency erosion.

Unfortunately, it's difficult for the average person to have all, or most, of their assets in these forms of wealth.  They don't throw off any income, and they can often be highly illiquid, leading to the condition of being asset-rich and cash-poor.  This is Buffet's point, which is so enraging to the PM community.

So, what to do?  The only answer I know is compromise in one's asset mix, maintaining or increasing adequate "ballast" in hard assets, but leaving ample room for liquidity, and shorter-term speculations (the stock market, for example) designed to increase wealth, not simply preserve it, etc.

If it was easy, anybody could do it.

pailin
pailin's picture
Online
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 13699
Posts: 3746
liquidity and gettin' filthy rich

Rico wrote:

...So, what to do?  The only answer I know is compromise in one's asset mix, maintaining or increasing adequate "ballast" in hard assets, but leaving ample room for liquidity, and shorter-term speculations (the stock market, for example) designed to increase wealth, not simply preserve it, etc.

If it was easy, anybody could do it.

Oh Rico...you're humming my tune, and nearly on-key too :)

Anybody that's been reading my posts for a bit knows that I play much harder in the alternate asset classes than the daytrade game. Even when I was actively daying, it wasn't with more than 1% of my net. And fully levered (rarely), maybe 50%?

After many very successful years, I can tell you that anybody "could" do it but few have the patience and discipline. Yeah, just like trading :)

The keys (seems like for everything, not just illiquid hard assets) are:

1. live/spend below your means, including leverage and debt carry

2. separate mentally (and physically) your income stream/s from your "wealth"

3. allocate conservatively toward aggressive gains - maybe no more than 25% of wealth in fast-trackers (let's say contemporary emerging artists to use the fine art metaphor?), and the rest in steady gainers (pre-War, top Pop and Old Masters)

4. aggressively add to wealth not through investment "activity" but through diversion of unspent income stream

5. maintain significant liquidity (separate of credit lines) to be cushioned during droughts but more importantly to aggressively pursue firesale-type opportunities (straight cash "in hand" always trumps "gotta call my bank first" buyers)

With some patience (to begin building that nest) and discipline (to stick with the income stream and wealth-building and preservation plans) anybody can and will succeed beyond belief.

My father retired at 50 and has never worked a day since at anything he didn't want to.  At the time that blew my mind. Everybody always said work to 65 (or 62 :), retire and travel for a few then drop dead. Right? Well not for Daddy-o.  So being the competitive bloke that I am, meeting or beating 50 became my goal too (though my conscience brain said "no friggin' way").  Didn't realize it at the time but when I was laid off (yet again!) at 38, I had retired "early" as well as the uphill jobs thing had forever lost it's appeal (to me). So as it turned out...I had succeeded beyond (my own) belief. But among friends and family almost nobody knows any of this. It's none of their business (concepts of money and wealth change people's behavior towards themselves and others) and I've found it pays handsomely to move in the shadows :)

The point is, even in the face of no income stream (being unemployed/early retiree) I maintain significant workable liquidity while being 95% or more invested in hard assets as Rico describes. The way it's done is selling when you don't need the money in anticipation of when you will (because that day is really always right around the corner). This allows you to entertain offers until you get what you want without having to firesale or crash and burn on your bills. Keeping a small footprint (living below means) takes a lot of pressure off liquidity too. Being flush when you don't need it really improves your sleep patterns. And I won't even mention how many large deals I've walked in on -last minute- and walked away with for pennies on the dollar because my only terms as a buyer were "where do I deliver the suitcase full of cash?" There are bulk lots I bought 20 years ago that I'm still distributing into the market here and there when demand spikes. 100% ROI was achieved within the first few years and it's just been gravy ever since. Trust me you want (and need) to have that suitcase of cash ready for those opportunities. And they're everywhere; I turn down more than I accept now since I'm just not into working so hard anymore :)

Mostly I'm talking fine art above, but all certainly applies to gold and silver too. Metals are even more liquid than art, any coin dealer can handle small lots on the spot and big loads can always be dumped on Tulving, Goldmart, Provident, Apmex, et al...whoever is paying the most at the time. In that sense the only real concern should be if you've overpaid to begin with. So just don't!

Behave like the Joneses (or Pain St perma-chasers) and you'll (un)succeed as well as they do. Do the opposite and be their millionaire next door (but don't let 'em know, their attitude toward you will change to the negative :)

__________________

I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild

Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell

redwood
redwood's picture
Offline
Joined: 08/09/2011
Hat Tips: 10500
Posts: 5419
Nice. But learning to live

Nice.

But learning to live like the millionaire next door seems to come from some sense of where the value in things are, material and perhaps more importantly immaterial.

I was stunned to find out after I had read the mnd that I had modelled my life by that, without knowing it. My blue collar roots have been a godsend in a sense. I still drive a 18 yr honda accord, love this baby.  It has great visibility and a motor that still purrs after all these years.  My friends laugh at me....they're all driving the SUV's etc.

But I love my work, first and foremost and thankfully provides the cash flow as I throw caution to the wind sometimes in trading. This trading I have come by only incidentally, but have discovered it to be a most interesting process.  Can't say pleasantly enlightening, but enlightening nonetheless.  I admire your patience Palin but hope to read some day that you can at least enjoy the pleasures of your efforts, like heating your place in the winter.  Nothing more just that.

pailin
pailin's picture
Online
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 13699
Posts: 3746
redwood wrote:...I admire

redwood wrote:

...I admire your patience Palin but hope to read some day that you can at least enjoy the pleasures of your efforts, like heating your place in the winter.  Nothing more just that.

One man's minimum living standard is another's misallocation of scarce resources (net wealth in a debt-drenched world). I do enjoy and derive much pleasure from self-imposed austerity. Yeah that sh.t turns me on - freedom from the enslavement of s0-called modern society's creature comforts. When just a few generations ago we all had to cut down our own wood to stay warm. Yeah no heat...end of the world right? Somebody should ask the Eskimos about that!

As I've always told the few that know my pov on this in my personal life, the day it sucks is the day the heat goes on. Ya know -so far- winter after winter, it just doesn't suck. At least not much. Same with whatever else I willingly do not do. It's called freedom of choice. Freedom to say no. I'm far past the point of being cheap to accumulate or "needing" to be careful for some "plan". It's just a matter of choice now, like glass of water instead of Pepsi. Do without anything long enough (assuming doing so doesn't kill you!) and you tend to find you don't need it so much after all. That's the paradigm shift. Like the old saw of finding that perfect girl when you finally stop looking (if you substitute wealth and materialism). Perhaps the Freudian in you can work out if it's a case of S&M or persecution-complex? Or white man's guilt in an increasingly brown world? Or none of the above :)

As much as I was in awe of my father's early retirement (at a time when my college professors were all saying my generation would be the first to not have a higher standard of living than our parents), I was moreso of those stories that hit every few years of a homeless person dying only for it to be found their "estate" owned a Fifth Avenue condo worth millions and a trust fund worth 10x that. I've yet to see any writer of such suppose that maybe that person wasn't crazy but actually wanted to live austere even in the face of being 1%. After all...money doesn't buy happiness. Or enlightenment. The money thing...nailed. Continuing to work hard at not working at all on the happiness (pretty much there) and enlightenment (definitely not there!)

In the "luck" department - I too was mnd (mentality only) before reading the book. That luck got me into some early deals (as mentioned) that still pay out today. But can't take credit, just luck and a bit of the growing up poor thing. MND helped me devise a strict plan of attack with already proven success to follow. It all starts with giving up that first Starbucks of the day...

__________________

I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild

Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell

redwood
redwood's picture
Offline
Joined: 08/09/2011
Hat Tips: 10500
Posts: 5419
Good.  Continue enjoying your

Good.  Continue enjoying your life.  You richly (no pun) deserve.  As you can see with my car I tend to be on the ascetic side too and understand the pleasure that comes from it. Hell I even wear my clothes until they're thread bare. I just thought being cold might be unpleasant.  Not for me to define your pleasure. :)

pailin
pailin's picture
Online
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 13699
Posts: 3746
red, much as I want to

red, much as I want to dislike you (for the usual old reasons we've beaten to death) you do make me chuckle in a good way. I too use sh.t till it falls apart and old habits die hard (from days when I needed to be austere for accumulation). My lady still shakes her head (lovingly) when she says the couch is looking a bit tired and I reply "but we're only year 9 on a 10 year depreciation to zero...gotta hang in there :)"

The finest things in life: peace and somebody good to share it with.

So where's BH to lose it on me (!) for all my mach0-sexism??

Anyway, back to lurking since this is nowhere even tangential to trading now:)

__________________

I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild

Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell

SilverWealth
SilverWealth's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 15324
Posts: 3850
comment

cautionary for those hopeful in metals. GDX is in a daily,weekly and monthly downtrending channel. Trading long in this is counter trend trading. Should GDX break 40 it can quickly cascade down who knows how far and the hedgies will be all over it short. It has been downtrending since last 1/3 of 11'.  Listening to a Morris Hubbart or Stu Thompson on how much 'value' is here is like listening to a guy selling you cheap real estate near Fukushima. Until the downtrend changes, look out. If Silver does get another leg down, GDX will be a good short despite how low it is. It is limping off into the woods,bleeding and dragging a shit-stained  leg behind it now. Fundamentals do not apply. Speculation about this and that is irrelevant. Where it 'should' be is immaterial.  Dan Norcini can hope and moan all he wants, that stuff is kiddie porn imo.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, biotechs are flying up, little pharma is popping like popcorn at a kid's prom and small tech is jumping like crickets in July. Even fucking donuts are in an up channel.  Parking any money in miners and metal for trading at this pt. is like parking your car down in Watts over the weekend. Its foolish and naive imo. And the main page should have a skull and cross bones on its entrance insignia. Anyone spending more than 5 minutes of  each month there  is risking financial havoc based in hope and change.

redwood
redwood's picture
Offline
Joined: 08/09/2011
Hat Tips: 10500
Posts: 5419
"The finest things in life:

"The finest things in life: peace and somebody good to share it with."

Amen.  It's why I love my work.  And as for the jargon of my trade.  I left it behind me a long time ago.  Just words that sound erudite, but are empty. I provoke much ambivalence among my peers but most respect me because, surprise, I am outspoken and sometimes embarrass them. Not my intention but I have to say what I observe.   I am not perfect, but I guess I accept that and move along.

My work is rooted in in the substance of people's lives, their relationships and their conflicts surrounding that.  Many times I am successful and when I am not it is painful.

Eric Original
Eric Original's picture
Offline
Joined: 06/14/2011
Posts: 5653
SW

I find that lately you and I seem to be on the same page a lot.  I posted this on my miner thread just last night.  First post there in about 6 weeks.

8456387127_ffb468fc15_z.jpg

For the past few months I've been heavy on the red line, and little or nothing on the blue line.  As I said on this thread before, just because you are underwater doesn't mean you are doomed to sit there with the same stocks or even the same sector trying to get even.

I know some of you will be thinking that pretty soon I'll get my comeuppance, and those lines will switch.  Ok, but how long have you been thinking that?  A year?  Two years?  How has that been working out?  It wasn't working for me, so I changed.  Pure and simple.  I'm a disciple of the Church of Whatever is Working.

If I start to see some sort of real strength in the miners I can do a switcharoo with a few clicks.  But I'm not seeing it yet.  Not even close.

Good Luck everyone.

EO

__________________

This isn't a metals blog anymore. It's a right wing circle jerk, masquerading as a metals blog.

pailin
pailin's picture
Online
Joined: 06/14/2011
Hat Tips: 13699
Posts: 3746
Eric Original wrote: I know

Eric Original wrote:

I know some of you will be thinking that pretty soon I'll get my comeuppance, and those lines will switch.  Ok, but how long have you been thinking that?  A year?  Two years?  How has that been working out?  It wasn't working for me, so I changed.  Pure and simple.  I'm a disciple of the Church of Whatever is Working.

If I start to see some sort of real strength in the miners I can do a switcharoo with a few clicks.

Rock on Eric...great stuff!

__________________

I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild

Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell

Lord Henry
Lord Henry's picture
Offline
Joined: 09/10/2012
Hat Tips: 1121
Posts: 700
The Canadian Ventures Exchange (cve)

is still my favourite in terms of all the possible types of investment,

trading or speculating, despite having spent the last 12 months experimenting

with just about everything else.   I can now revisit the 'Juniors ' with an older and

wiser perspective. N0-one can be sure if now is the time , but the market has been

quite steady around 1200 for a little while.  All I can say with certainty is that its

a better time to enter now at 1200 than it was in' 07 at 3500, and I am equally sure

that now is not as good an entry point as when the index at 690 was  in 2009.

The ventures exchange is populated with around 1500 plus stocks, of which maybe 50-75

might be of real interest at any given time. The rest are mainly lost causes, and its curious

that the index is by far most heavily populated by gold and silver explorationists. In fact,

rational thinking leads me to think that the  pm juniors are in fact a heavily over-populated

subset. I say this because the whole point of owning a small miner is that one day a big deposit

(with an in-situ value of maybe several billions) is proven,  and with the discounted cash flow

model applied to that value, your junior miner gets taken out with an offer maybe in the 250 mil -

1 billion range. The gold explorers are dependent on a less than sparkling senior gold sector (HUI etc),

whereas a really juicy Uranium/Copper/Nickel/Diamond/Potash etc find will instead be taken

out (ideally in a bidding war) by one of the really big miners - BHP Billiton, Xstrata, Vale, Freeport

etc etc. Thats why the primary focus now should be on either non precious metal explorers, or on

poly-metallic properties (eg silver/copper or silver-zinc etc). My focus is on companies that have a

realistic chance of 500 % appreciation over 5 years, although that means having some that dont quite get

there and  others   that fall by the wayside. The big mistake I made in 2010, was getting excited when

a company doubled in value and selling too soon, OR getting despondent when a company fell 50 %,

& also selling too soon. A 50 % move in a Junior is just a rounding error. My current core consists of

Nevada Gold Exploration, SilverCrest mines, First Point minerals , Verde Potash & Peregrine Diamonds

(all with fascinating charts for those that enjoy such things)  but I intend adding a lot more names over

the next few weeks.

__________________

Wake me up at HUI 200.
No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.

redwood
redwood's picture
Offline
Joined: 08/09/2011
Hat Tips: 10500
Posts: 5419
one more thing.....as I was

one more thing.....as I was walking away from the screen, 9 yr old sofa was reverberating in my mind....ours is 28 yrs old and in mint condition.  Conservationist by nature.  So I get it. :)

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Syndicate contentComments for "Pailin's Trading Corner"