someone also bet on the xlf dropping before April in a big way....sequester set for march 1st I guess....
Pailin's Trading Corner
Silver is so weak right now to me too. We have infinite money printing and zero percent interest rates and it still gets its butt kicked. Any hint at all of the possibility of rate increases or slowed down money printing and it gets totally hammered. Best bet for me is TA and patience...
Short Euro was a well - timed trade, but screwed up
on long Yen by two days. That neutralised the week,
but then did a v bad gold daytrade so crap week overall.
Decided that the only remedy lies somewhere within the
obscure ranks of the junior minor sector. Am currently
pondering 17 carefully selected candidates, including a
few pm oriented hopefuls, but also microcaps with interests
in potash, nickel and scandium. Yes, Pailin, sorry, scandium
mining juniors. Did try to pre-warn you . Will publish findings
- currently pending further analysis. These will be the sort of
stocks that you just throw away the contract notes, and ask your
broker to send a valuation statement every 15 years or so .....
You gotta love the irony. Silver dipped to 31.35 and seconds before close it lands on 31.40, again. This isn't by chance. Trend remains intact. Good w/e to all.
Naked shorting is endemic. The whole game is done with a wink and a nod. If it's any comfort, Wall Street has always been about screwing the suckers, so today's shenanigans are really no worse than in the past--it just seems so, because today you hear about it.
Re the miners, they will have their day, particularly the ones I think of as "actual" companies. They are going concerns, and have real profit/loss statements--they're not going out of business. You can also play the royalty angle, but again, you gotta get in low.
There are many companies in the broader market that are just kicking ass, right now. They have money to burn, pay great dividends, and are going from strength to strength. I do think there will be a decent correction sometime in H1, so I have plenty of dry powder. It cuts down on your returns not to be all in when the market is rockin' and rollin', but that's called risk control.
There's always something you can try to make money on--that's why it never gets old!
Just to make sure I have a proof there is no long term capping:
SILVER is exactly on its 2001-2013 exponential price rise CURVE median, represented in this semi log plot as straight line:
Movements above and below exponential price rise return to the exponential price raise MEDIAN, what we see since 2011 as well. They can overshoot to below, as in 2008, but so far the MEDIAN of the fork after 2011 deviation (overbought) has withstood (on parallel line slightly below it) 4 monthly attempts to break it. There could be more, but as time goes, the target moves higher.
Today this parallel support line has value of 29,40. That is the bottom which in my opinion should not be taken out ( on monthly basis) in February as long as fundamentals ( USG debt ) show no sign of rapid improvement (stabilization/reduction). I have to check if relative value of USG debt to GDP has better correlation with gold prices or as good as the absolute value in USD. It could be so, as it makes sense in terms of debt serviceability /instability risk.
So my claims of nonexistent long term capping as it can not force the fundamentals is supported by this simple chart, and even medium term capping looks more like normal correction. Daily trade tricks happen as they should , but, short of silver crossing 44 USD in Feb -March ( which I do not believe will happen as the resolution of debt issues and 2011 correction is around June-August 2013) there seems no major reasons to see INCREASED or ACCELERATED systemic problems compared to how they are perceived by majority of investors. Until then, its all the normal short term future guessing game with even shorter term trading games.
Same for gold. Here long term support is reached but has not been tested lately, so move below is possible:
Your charts certainly demonstrate why a buy and hold model for physical purchases has worked well the past several years. You just buy it, put it away, forget about the fluctuations, and hope that you won't suddenly need to sell it during one of the inevitable corrections. It's really not any different than other hard assets. I'm sure one could plot out similar charts, extending over decades, or even centuries, showing the inexorable rise in the nominal price of, say, Goya paintings or medieval manuscripts. This is just a function of finite supply, and currency erosion.
Unfortunately, it's difficult for the average person to have all, or most, of their assets in these forms of wealth. They don't throw off any income, and they can often be highly illiquid, leading to the condition of being asset-rich and cash-poor. This is Buffet's point, which is so enraging to the PM community.
So, what to do? The only answer I know is compromise in one's asset mix, maintaining or increasing adequate "ballast" in hard assets, but leaving ample room for liquidity, and shorter-term speculations (the stock market, for example) designed to increase wealth, not simply preserve it, etc.
If it was easy, anybody could do it.
But learning to live like the millionaire next door seems to come from some sense of where the value in things are, material and perhaps more importantly immaterial.
I was stunned to find out after I had read the mnd that I had modelled my life by that, without knowing it. My blue collar roots have been a godsend in a sense. I still drive a 18 yr honda accord, love this baby. It has great visibility and a motor that still purrs after all these years. My friends laugh at me....they're all driving the SUV's etc.
But I love my work, first and foremost and thankfully provides the cash flow as I throw caution to the wind sometimes in trading. This trading I have come by only incidentally, but have discovered it to be a most interesting process. Can't say pleasantly enlightening, but enlightening nonetheless. I admire your patience Palin but hope to read some day that you can at least enjoy the pleasures of your efforts, like heating your place in the winter. Nothing more just that.
Good. Continue enjoying your life. You richly (no pun) deserve. As you can see with my car I tend to be on the ascetic side too and understand the pleasure that comes from it. Hell I even wear my clothes until they're thread bare. I just thought being cold might be unpleasant. Not for me to define your pleasure. :)
cautionary for those hopeful in metals. GDX is in a daily,weekly and monthly downtrending channel. Trading long in this is counter trend trading. Should GDX break 40 it can quickly cascade down who knows how far and the hedgies will be all over it short. It has been downtrending since last 1/3 of 11'. Listening to a Morris Hubbart or Stu Thompson on how much 'value' is here is like listening to a guy selling you cheap real estate near Fukushima. Until the downtrend changes, look out. If Silver does get another leg down, GDX will be a good short despite how low it is. It is limping off into the woods,bleeding and dragging a shit-stained leg behind it now. Fundamentals do not apply. Speculation about this and that is irrelevant. Where it 'should' be is immaterial. Dan Norcini can hope and moan all he wants, that stuff is kiddie porn imo.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, biotechs are flying up, little pharma is popping like popcorn at a kid's prom and small tech is jumping like crickets in July. Even fucking donuts are in an up channel. Parking any money in miners and metal for trading at this pt. is like parking your car down in Watts over the weekend. Its foolish and naive imo. And the main page should have a skull and cross bones on its entrance insignia. Anyone spending more than 5 minutes of each month there is risking financial havoc based in hope and change.
"The finest things in life: peace and somebody good to share it with."
Amen. It's why I love my work. And as for the jargon of my trade. I left it behind me a long time ago. Just words that sound erudite, but are empty. I provoke much ambivalence among my peers but most respect me because, surprise, I am outspoken and sometimes embarrass them. Not my intention but I have to say what I observe. I am not perfect, but I guess I accept that and move along.
My work is rooted in in the substance of people's lives, their relationships and their conflicts surrounding that. Many times I am successful and when I am not it is painful.
I find that lately you and I seem to be on the same page a lot. I posted this on my miner thread just last night. First post there in about 6 weeks.
For the past few months I've been heavy on the red line, and little or nothing on the blue line. As I said on this thread before, just because you are underwater doesn't mean you are doomed to sit there with the same stocks or even the same sector trying to get even.
I know some of you will be thinking that pretty soon I'll get my comeuppance, and those lines will switch. Ok, but how long have you been thinking that? A year? Two years? How has that been working out? It wasn't working for me, so I changed. Pure and simple. I'm a disciple of the Church of Whatever is Working.
If I start to see some sort of real strength in the miners I can do a switcharoo with a few clicks. But I'm not seeing it yet. Not even close.
Good Luck everyone.
is still my favourite in terms of all the possible types of investment,
trading or speculating, despite having spent the last 12 months experimenting
with just about everything else. I can now revisit the 'Juniors ' with an older and
wiser perspective. N0-one can be sure if now is the time , but the market has been
quite steady around 1200 for a little while. All I can say with certainty is that its
a better time to enter now at 1200 than it was in' 07 at 3500, and I am equally sure
that now is not as good an entry point as when the index at 690 was in 2009.
The ventures exchange is populated with around 1500 plus stocks, of which maybe 50-75
might be of real interest at any given time. The rest are mainly lost causes, and its curious
that the index is by far most heavily populated by gold and silver explorationists. In fact,
rational thinking leads me to think that the pm juniors are in fact a heavily over-populated
subset. I say this because the whole point of owning a small miner is that one day a big deposit
(with an in-situ value of maybe several billions) is proven, and with the discounted cash flow
model applied to that value, your junior miner gets taken out with an offer maybe in the 250 mil -
1 billion range. The gold explorers are dependent on a less than sparkling senior gold sector (HUI etc),
whereas a really juicy Uranium/Copper/Nickel/Diamond/Potash etc find will instead be taken
out (ideally in a bidding war) by one of the really big miners - BHP Billiton, Xstrata, Vale, Freeport
etc etc. Thats why the primary focus now should be on either non precious metal explorers, or on
poly-metallic properties (eg silver/copper or silver-zinc etc). My focus is on companies that have a
realistic chance of 500 % appreciation over 5 years, although that means having some that dont quite get
there and others that fall by the wayside. The big mistake I made in 2010, was getting excited when
a company doubled in value and selling too soon, OR getting despondent when a company fell 50 %,
& also selling too soon. A 50 % move in a Junior is just a rounding error. My current core consists of
Nevada Gold Exploration, SilverCrest mines, First Point minerals , Verde Potash & Peregrine Diamonds
(all with fascinating charts for those that enjoy such things) but I intend adding a lot more names over
the next few weeks.
one more thing.....as I was walking away from the screen, 9 yr old sofa was reverberating in my mind....ours is 28 yrs old and in mint condition. Conservationist by nature. So I get it. :)