Chew On This One
Maybe it's the massive blizzard about to hit New York and Boston? I don't know but the markets are so boring today that I thought I'd disappear down the rabbit hole for a moment or two.
Part of the reason that things are so quiet today is the general lack of news. The only noteworthy item was the release of the December U.S. trade deficit. It shrunk. This, of course, caused Reuters to cheer, happily proclaiming that perhaps Q4 GDP won't be as awful as first projected. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/08/us-usa-economy-trade-idUSBRE9170J520130208) Of course, this is silly. The U.S. is a consumption-based economy and when imports fall, we are consuming less. And, as usual, ZH provides a better analysis ( http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-08/us-trade-deficit-drops-lowest-january-2010-crude-imports-plunge-1997-levels).
The gold market yawned at the "news" and that, usually, is that. However, I soon thereafter received an email from a rather enlightened individual who noticed, contained within the Reuters story, was this little nugget: "Friday's data showed U.S. exports surged by $8.6 billion during the month, boosted by sales of industrial supplies, including a $1.2 billion increase of non-monetary gold."
Hmmmm. Well that's interesting, now isn't it? Why on earth would the U.S. see a $1.2B increase in "non-monetary gold" exports? (The concept that any type of gold is "non-monetary", notwithstanding.) The alert emailer further suggested that:
"When the deficit shrinks, it is a sign that the US creditors are not accepting the USD as a means for conducting trade.
The US has to pay with something else (oil/gold) and curtail imports.
So what happened in Dec?
Imports – largely driven by autos (likely to be Germans) and oil dropped in total by 2.7%
Exports – largely driven by oil exports and gold increased by 2.1%
Someone is asking for payment in oil and gold and not USD is the message.
One can take a guess but my gut tells me it is either China or one of the non-friendly oil producers asking for gold."
OK, now we're onto something. So....is it possible that this is finally beginning to happen? We know that plenty of other nations are transacting gold-for-oil deals. Just google "Turkey Iran gold" and see what you get. Anyway, the timing of this fits well. QE∞ was announced back in September and this is data for the very next quarter, Q4. Again...hmmm.
Now, here's one that, admittedly, is a bit of a reach. Reading these emails this morning reminded me of an email I received earlier this week. An alert Turdite caught this on the facebook feed of one of his relatives who is a flight attendant. This particular person was simply perturbed by the delay in her flight schedule and posted this seemingly innocuous bit of information:
"Dubai~Take 2
Yesterday was a very long day that ended in the disappointment of not getting on my flight to Dubai due to weight restrictions! Yeah, isn't that a real kicker!! I was #10 on the standby list and they kept calling us one by one and then~bam! Stopped after #9! Even with quite a few empty seats left on the plane, the cargo in the belly was so heavy (and valuable monetarily) that they couldn't chance adding more standby passengers."
A flight to Dubai with cargo that is "so heavy and valuable monetarily"? Hmmmm. Well that's interesting, too.
Look, I know it's all anecdotal and, once you disappear down the rabbit hole, you can easily hang yourself by the rope you use connecting all of the dots. But I thought this was interesting enough to share with you. Lots of possible implications to ponder. Knock yourself out and have a great day.
TF
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Comments
well I'ts been snowing here for about an hour
So I guess I better fire up the big dodge 4 wheel posi! Take a trip to the lcs to make a purchase. Before another governor closes down the roads.
I feel like part of a big, Italian . . .
(partly dysfunctional) familia! And I'm mostly German . . .
I do like the repartee, from wherever it comes. Everything can have value, when put into a context. Thanks again Turd for battling through the tough times. This is unique, and my wife says I spend wayyyyy too much time perusing a toilet (that's "loo" for you, Bollocks).
Snakes on a... er Gold on a Plane
I for one didn't think there was anything conspiratorial or even fishy about the Valuable Cargo on the plane. I just thought it was interesting and potentially an unreported major transfer of PMs but then I came across this article from January 30th.
http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2013/01/30/263456.html
Trade in Turkish gold bars to Iran via Dubai is drying up as a growing number of banks and dealers refuse to buy the bullion to avoid the risks associated with Turkey's gold-for-gas trade with Iran.
U.S. officials say they are concerned the trade between the two countries provides a financial lifeline to the Iran, which is largely frozen out of the global banking system by Western sanctions.
The U.S. State Department said in December that diplomats were in talks with Ankara over the flow of gold to Iran after the Senate approved expanded sanctions on trade with Iran's energy and shipping sectors, which would also restrict trade in precious metals......
....Turkey, Iran’s biggest natural gas customer, has been paying the Islamic Republic for oil and gas imports with Turkish liras, because Western sanctions prevent it from paying in dollars or euros. Iranians then buy gold in Turkey, and couriers carry the gold worth millions of dollars in their hand luggage to Dubai, where it can be sold for foreign currency or shipped to Iran.
...now I'm headed down the Rabbit Hole...
@silver dan
LOL
With chavez devaluing there currancy
Isnt he following in the footsteps of Iran devaluing theres about three months ago?
my question is did they devalue or was it sanctions? All the imports of gold? (both Venezuela and Iran) Am I seeing a pattern here.. China?
Gold on a plane
--I would bet an ASE that the gold on the Turkish plane was involved in the payment to Iran for gas or oil.
--From the Al Arabia article, I get the general sense that someone (The US government) is putting pressure on the gold dealers in Dubai to not accept the Turkish bars. US trying to help their NATO alley Turkey get back in line by threatening sanctions on any firms caught with the Turkish bars.
--No problem, take the IAR & Nadir Turkish bars to London and exchange them for other good delivery bars, then put them on a plane and fly them to Istanbul, change the crew on the plane and head for Dubai ...... Oh wait, who wants to see the paperwork?
--Generic Turkish 1 kilo bars, coming to a gold market near you soon! No mint mark, no serial number, just pure .995 fine barbaric relic!
Ven. devaluation deflationary?
Cheaper coffee?
That Chavez would've been an Oklahoma Sooner!
He does everything ahead of the crowd, doesn't he?
First he got elected president and took over dictatorial powers way ahead of Obama's efforts toward that same end. Then, he gets Venezuela's gold repatriated way ahead of Germany's tepid efforts toward that end or anything at all being done by the Netherlands, Ghana or Switzerland. Now he completely, openly, devalues his currency.
Venezuela. Your future is here.
US Mint - 979,500 Silver Eagles so far in February
The US Mint continues to sell silver eagles at a nice clip, nearly 1 million in 6 days. While not as blistering a pace as January, it is still on pace for about 3 million in February. That's double last year, and about the pace of 2011 (which set most of the previous records). We'll see if the pace holds...
http://www.usmint.gov/mint_programs/american_eagles/?action=sales&year=2013
@Zoltan re Lease Rates
The figures you put up (from Kitco?) don't match with the original sources:
USD LIBOR http://www.global-rates.com/interest-rates/libor/american-dollar/america...
Minus
GOFO http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm?page_id=55&title=gold_forwards&sh...
and so I can't see any spike down...
Put a bunch of yellow hats on these guys (remind you of anybody
Zooming out for a minute...
A perfect circle
I appreciate that ivars.
Your in that category yourself on here and the positive coexistence of provocative thought has worked well.
Time has a way of closing an almost full circle that's far from perfect.
DPH Judith
An awesome choice.
I especially love the part where the bass player puts her hair up.
Chavez is no dummy!
I never got an answer to my question,
Or if I did, I missed it.
A few threads back I asked about why TA uses 50 day, 100 day 200 day, etc., moving averages when, to me 20 day, 60 day, 120 day, 240 day, etc,. makes more sense to me as they align on business month, quarter, half and year. Does anyone have an answer other than it's always been that way?
BTW, here is the London fix YTD.
re Non Monetary Gold Exports over Imports...Rilly?!
Thanks Foggy Road for the link: http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/exh15.pdf
which shows US imported $17,874,000,000 worth of gold and exported $36,129,000,000 of gold in 2012. In 2011 it was a bit less with $16,394,000,000 in and $33,675,000,000 out. (It would be interesting to look at this over a longer time, US is No.3 in world gold production).
Now, this is where it gets interesting, because according to: http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/gold/mcs-2012-gold.pdf
1. Gold imports increased 2007 to 2011 and exports decreased with a net balance over exports of 200 metric tonnes in 2011;
2. Recycling (cash for gold*?) amounted to 225 metric tonnes in 2011, more than primary mine supply;
3. "the U.S. Department of Defense administers a Governmentwide secondary precious-metals recovery program"(*?!). (Who knew!? See notes)
4. Stock of gold held by USG "includes Gold in the Exchange Stabilization Fund" (As we suspected! See notes '3'), aka "The Plunge Protection Team";
Now, both reports cannot be correct...footnote 2e might have provided an explanation but shows as zero for 2011.
Turd, the guy who wrote this report has provided his contact details, you might want to interview him.
@Puck
a lot of traders use 17 and 55...then some use 13; some use 8 EMA over 21 SMA...I could go on. I have found it best to play with them all and see which ones at which time are showing support and resistance. That is how Dominic Frisby came up with his 144 DMA support line for gold since 2009. They all work at some time or another...until they don't.
Yep, it's a blizzard.
Only briefly mentioned in the first line of today's topic, and and rarely mentioned on Main Street, but it has been snowing here all day long, there is about 6 inches on the ground out of an anticipated 18 inches.
Local weather says that the main blizzard will kick in around 9 PM. The wind is starting to pick up.
Just for an honorable mention, there's this:
http://www.haarpstatus.com/status.html
It has many of the characteristics of the last “super storm.”
As always, we are extraordinarily well prepared with food, fuel, and all the necessities of life.
Let it snow, let it blow, one of the huge benefits of being a prepper,
is that I am in fact well prepared.
Nothing to do now, but to sit down with the family and have a delicious steak dinner.
Life is good.
Not too sure about the SIlver Eagle sales....
I have just one question for those who get excited about the number of silver eagles being sold. If we cannot trust anything whatsoever that comes out of our governments mouth, why would we ever trust the numbers they spew out for silver eagle sales? Just wondering. There could very well be an honest explanation for this, but I have grown very skeptical of anything that comes out that is a government number. Could it be that like China who lie about their gold imports that our government lies about its silver eagle sales?
Re: Liberal with guns.
Well, that was certainly shallow and vacuous.
PS: Don't mind me, I'm in mood.
Re: Liberal with guns.
Oops, dupe.
@tobydaniel - re: Not too sure about the Silver Eagle sales....
I trust things that are objectively measured and known to counterparties a lot more than things that involve estimates, fuzzy math, seasonal adjustments, and retroactive corrections. Lying about the number of coins sold on the high side would be easy (just stash the extras), but lying on the low side would be hard since raw materials and manufacturing are involved.
Not saying it's a legit number, but I believe it a hell of a lot more than the BLSBS or CPI numbers...
Also, I'm not necessarily 'excited' about the numbers, but the high volume of sales is interesting. And if 2013 shapes up like 2011 did, I think we'd all be smiling.
2nd Amendment Alert
I just received an email from one of my Senators, Robert P. Casey (PA). In it, he stated that he will be supporting Feinstein's bill in the Senate, including the semi-auto handgun ban. Here is my reply (sent to him via email and his web site - http://casey.senate.gov/contact/ ):
"I was severely disappointed in reading your position on banning certain styles of weapons and weapons accessories. It’s unfortunate that you let the emotions of the issue at hand cloud your judgment. Despite your emotions, you’re missing several relevant facts:
The result of your stance does nothing to affect your stated goals, while at the same time punishes law abiding citizens. I can clearly see that your emotions have superseded your ability to reason and actually apply common sense to this situation. If your stance does not change to reflect a more thoughtful, common sense approach, I will not only avoid voting for you – I will actively campaign against you. I have been a passive citizen for the majority of my life (voting in elections only), but if your position does not change, I will be forced to take an active stance against you and those that oppose the common sense of our Founding Fathers. At a minimum, going door to door in my neighborhood prior to your next re-election bid with copies or your email will be my first step.
Your stance does not protect the 2nd amendment."
Marginalizing Dissent
Does it still count as a conspiracy theory if it's all on record and the man has lived it himself? Chuck Baldwin:
See the report here: Emails Expose Southern Poverty Law Center Collaboration With DOJ
"I have been personally victimized by the SPLC and DOJ’s vicious smear campaigns. In 2008, the State of Missouri issued their now infamous MIAC report, which identified supporters of Ron Paul, Bob Barr, and me as being potential dangerous militia members and similar absurdities. This report was issued after State officials received the inflammatory accusations from DHS Fusion Centers. After an outcry of protest from people all over America, and after Ron, Bob, and I demanded an apology from those Missouri officials who issued this libelous report, the report was rescinded and an apology was issued.
I have an entire webpage devoted to the MIAC fiasco. To see it, go here:DHS & MIAC Reports
I have had police officers and deputy sheriffs in several states personally show me memorandums that they had received from their respective police agencies depicting me and other notable conservatives with the same derogatory characteristics. These memos were once again issued to local police departments and sheriff’s offices via DHS-DOJ Fusion Centers. And those memos were almost word-for-word the same kind of character-assassination that appeared in SPLC publications. Now we know why, don’t we?
So, will the national and even local media now stop using the SPLC as a credible source for identifying so-called “hate” groups? Don’t count on it. The national press corps is mostly in bed with big-government zealots in Washington, D.C., and will do everything they can to smear and besmirch limited-government conservatives. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, this matches the definition of the word “conspiracy.”
http://www.vdare.com/articles/if-you-are-going-to-take-a-stand-you-must-take-it-now
@Puck T. Smith
Its more of a ssri problem than a liberal problem. We must take everything into consideration.. Now ar liberals more into ssri's. Could be something to look at!?
Metals investment goes hand
Metals investment goes hand in hand with all the other down the rabbit hole stuff. I started off interested in making some profit but the dots are all there lined up just waiting to be connected. Now I avoid flouridated water, mistrust the mainstream media, am skeptical about 9/11 and even have doubts about the moon landings.
Having said all that it does get too much sometimes and tends to take over. I like it when a lot of that is filtered out of the main thread.
#been blogging about bitcoins if anyone is interested. It is really heating up, starting to think there might be another bitcoin mania on the cards. http://www.afbitcoins.wordpress.com
Have a good weekend all
@old tradesman: i agree - SSRIs
I have no doubt that SSRIs are are a primary component of the problem. Another is the fact that children are exposed to moral contradictions from birth onward by their families and through public education. For the most part those contradictions simply cause "average" kinds to grow up with a stunted reasoning ability making them fodder for commercial and political manipulation. Since they have no real moral or philosophical foundation they are easily led by whatever sounds good, and no one can make things sound better than advertisers or politicians. The problem comes in when you have exceptionally bright children who know in their hearts that the culture they live in is riddled with lies, evasions and corruption. The lucky ones become rebels and disengage. The unlucky ones end up on SSRIs nursing a grudge. I'd be willing to bet that if a study were done, most if not all mass shooters have tested very high for intelligence. They are smart enough to see through the matrix, but can't cope with the consequences. Some times I think the only reason I didn't end up in that sort of situation myself is I chose to medicate myself with alcohol and street drugs, which are much safer than psychiatric drugs, until I managed find my own moral center.
test post
Live
Venezuela went KaBOOM bitchez
Reminds me of that South Park episode. Was it Kyle that opens a bank account and the banker says, "aaaand its gone." 46% devaluation? As Dave Chapelle says, "damn bitchez!" And the dominoes are slowly falling. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-08/venezuela-devalues-its-currency-32