The Dog Wags The Tail...Again

Take it as a very good sign that this is happening with increasing frequency.

To recap:

  • As noted last week, the POSX sat at the edge of the precipice, near 79. We all expected efforts to, at once, talk UP the dollar and talk DOWN the euro.
  • Today, the man that Goldman placed in Europe, succeeded in talking down the euro.
  • The Gold Cartel pounced and initiated a waterfall decline.
  • To their collective chagrin, massive allocations of physical were sought at these rigged-lower prices.
  • To hedge/cover, The Cartels had to almost as quickly get on the bid in the paper market.
  • And you end up with a chart like this:

This is all well and good and clearly benefited us today. However, note that the rally stopped right at the 1685 resistance level that The Cartel has used to cap the market for several days now. As long as it remains profitable to keep the price there in order to fleece the paper longs, 1685 will continue to act as resistance. The hard part is in predicting what happens next.

And next week brings the Chinese New Year  (http://www.france24.com/en/20130207-asian-astrologers-warn-stormy-year-snake). If physical demand temporarily slows, then you can rightly expect more downside shenanigans from your friends in New York. If that's the case, look for prices to cling to the blue trendlines on the charts below. Maybe, during the holiday next week, silver sees another drop toward 30.60-30.80? Maybe gold bumps along in the 1660-1670 zone? Again, IF THEY DO, take it as a gift to btfd and stack a little more at the discounted prices. You can bet our Buyers of Size will take them up on it when they return from holiday.

Of course this doesn't mean that prices have to go lower next week. Far from it. In fact, I would imagine that The Cartel actually lost a little money our this morning's trade. They'll be reluctant to try that trick again at these levels so we may very well see gold break $1685 soon (tomorrow?) and head toward $1695, instead. Silver, too, could just as easily break higher and move back toward The Big Test level near $32.50. However, without sustained physical demand, it will be tough to break through so next week is likely still rangebound regardless because of the holiday.

The interesting side note continues to be Sylvia Platinum. Like gold and silver, Sylvia has been rangebound for nearly 16 months. However, just yesterday, she broke UP and out of her range...but just barely. This is akin to gold being a shade above $1800 or silver trading near $36. What will happen next? Can she maintain this level and begin to move higher still? If so, the August 2011 highs above $1900 come into the picture. There is no way that a platinum moving back toward 2011 highs wouldn't provide spillover strength/interest in gold and silver. Therefore, watch ole Sylvia closely in the days ahead.

OK, here are your random items for today. First, Brent at Santiago Capital in SanFran has cranked out another terrific presentation. It deals primarily with fractional reserve banking and is very straightforward and easy to understand. Not only should you watch it but you should forward the link to your friends/family that don't seem to understand the full picture. All you need to do is enter your name and the player begins (I entered "Percival Sweetwater"). http://play.goldmail.com/oali4cua0azc

Also from my inbox is this: This author always notifies me when he posts something and this one is pretty good: http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-prices-–-big-picture-9511

Many Turdites own/follow Silver Wheaton so I thought I'd pass this one along. Maybe they'll change the name to "Silver&Gold Wheaton"? http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2013/02/07/silver-wheaton-adds-gold-streams-still-focused-on-silver-ceo/

As if we didn't have enough to worry about, there's this: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/a-solar-superstorm-is-coming-and-well-only-get-30minute-warning-8484058.html

And these: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-07/russian-flyover-prompts-japanese-fighter-jet-scramble-abe-opens-second-disputed-isla & http://freebeacon.com/pyongyang-provocation/

And why the hell does the U.S. DHS need 1,600,000,000 rounds of ammo? Are they planning to shoot every U.S. citizen 5 times?? Wait...don't answer that. We need to keep "Main St" on-topic as much as possible. http://www.infowars.com/dhs-purchases-21-6-million-more-rounds-of-ammunition/

That's all for now.

TF

317 Comments

BB's picture

Freedom Girls

SBSS is saying end of the month (of February).

Apparently there are a few insider copies on eBay at high prems....

Al Huxley's picture

@AncientMoney: Re Silver Shortage Warnings

I agree, I wouldn't wait for the signal that real shortages are actually happening to start buying, because then it might be too late.  My main point is that until that happens, ie as long as the dealers remain convinced that supply is plentiful, then the manipulated paper selloffs are a nice chance to buy at a discount.  At some point, the paper price won't matter, but for now it actually translates into a real deal, as long as you buy real metal and not paper contracts.

القراع عصفور's picture

it is a matter of common sense

read the "About" tab above like i suggested before.  sure, a certain amount of off topic stuff is fine.  but the hot issues should be taken off Main!  btw - anyone here with a brain has figured out the hat tipping game. 

Al Huxley's picture

@AncientMoney: Re Silver Shortage Warnings - ps

...just to further the comment a little, as long as the market perceives that there's no shortage, I'll continue to accumulate steadily, but not 'all at once', since it's always good to have capital on hand to take advantage of surprise sales.  I agree, at some point there will be no availability and dealers won't be able to sell even at an increased premium, but I expect there'll be a transition period where premiums start rising, while prices for paper are falling and for me that will be the signal to stop the 'steady accumulation' and go as 'all in' as possible, as the game will be almost done at that point.

ltcolkilgore's picture

Follow up to LCS report...

Sometimes I feel like Charlie Brown...

I should have known better than to go out with my buddy on his boat today... with all of the terrible accidents I hear of around here that happen on the water with PMs....

At least my buddy and I survived... terrible shame about all those quarters I picked up though...

Eric Original's picture

This is interesting

A researcher at Brown University just published a study about the correlation between Fear and Conservatism.

The one-liner conclusion of the study is "It's not that conservative people are more fearful, it's that fearful people are more conservative."

http://news.brown.edu/pressreleases/2013/02/fear

I would suggest a follow up study on anger.  

Maybe Turdites should start to ask themselves, "Who is pushing my fear and anger buttons every day?"  "Why?"  "Who benefits?"

Horsey:  Bring it.  Getting "lit up" by whackjobs is no skin off my nose.  I'll go run the dogs and maybe check back here next month.

ancientmoney's picture

@Eric O re: fear and conservatism . . .

"The one-liner conclusion of the study is "It's not that conservative people are more fearful, it's that fearful people are more conservative."

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Did the study follow the government build-up for domestic war?  While I admit to being conservative, I also have a healthy fear of what the feds are doing across the country.  You should, too, conservative or not (not).

Bollocks's picture

The Tale of Three Silver Premium Spikes

Louie's picture

Silver Shortage

Turdites,

From a longer perspective on stacking- the silver is running out.  It is happening slowly, but it is running out.  How do I know?  It was not too many years ago that you could buy bags of silver dollars at spot, or just a little over stop.  Up until about 2010 you could still buy bags of Morgan and Peace Dollars at spot or with just a small premium.  Have you seen the premium that silver dollars now carry?  They are now selling at about TWICE the spot price of their silver content.  There was a time not too long ago that you could buy 90% classic silver for under spot.  Why is it known as junk silver?  Because until 4 years ago, nobody wanted it.  You could buy 90% for $0.35-$0.45 under spot all day long, and this was when silver was under $10 an ounce, so on a percentage basis it was a huge discount.  90% Silver started carrying a premium about 4 years ago, now the premium is a minim of $0.80 per dollar of face.  You never know if dealers are holding back inventory, or if they are actually sold out, but I have never, NEVER seen Tulving sold out of all 90% like they were in December 2012 & January 2013.  They now have dimes & quarters, but no halves.  

Is there silver still out there today?  Sure.  Can you get as much as you can pay for?  Sure.  But the most desirable and lowest premium silver is disappearing from the market.  Louie predicts increasing premiums on 90% and generics and decreasing selection no matter what the paper spot price is.               

Turd Ferguson's picture

I did? I hope not.

MODERATOR

"PS.  Turd called you out personally, which I thought was very Lulz."

Eric is a longtime Turdite and friend of the site and he has a specific vision of how the site should work....which is fine. I value his input.

He and everyone else, though, must be wary of falling into the "my vision, my principles, my ideas" are superior to everyone else's. This is the core belief of the statist/fascist and it is what we should all despise.

I struggle with the two-edged sword of content moderation. Too much and certain folks go crazy over perceived "censorship". Too little and you get disjointed conversations regarding everything from gun shops to coin shops. Lately, I've been erring on the side of "too little" for the simple notion of inclusiveness. If it becomes a problem, I will surely pivot the other direction.

For now, let's try to be patient with each other and utilize the "ignore user" button whenever necessary.

Mr. Fix's picture

@ Eric Original

As far as I'm concerned, liberals have their heads stuck so far up their asses, they are incapable of seeing what is obviously coming down the road, and therefore are not experiencing any fear at all.

These people will be  destroyed as a result of their own ignorance.  They will never see it coming.

A lot of us here are preparing for what is obvious and mathematically unavoidable in the near future, combined with a healthy respect for the evil that is clearly in charge of our current system.

You can sit around all day long and laugh at conservatives, as if they are just being paranoid,

when the shit hits the fan, they will be the only ones capable of survival. 

القراع عصفور's picture

i rest

my case.

I Run Bartertown's picture

Next Month?

It's pretty much every other week you claim you're leaving and not going to be around because what you call "Main St." is a wasteland with nothing to offer. I knew about some 'bar crowd' from a forum, but I didn't expect the Stonewall Uprising. laugh

Hondo, don't let a couple moonbats run you off. TY for the info...

and the same for everyone else here who adds to the wealth of information across the broad scope of discussion that makes this site what it is. yes

The Green Manalishi's picture

Silver Prices – The Big Picture

Apologies if already posted

More: http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-prices-%E2%80%93-big-picture-9511

Silver Prices – The Big Picture

GE Christenson

 | 

Thursday, February 7th
 

Question: What do May 2004, January 2005, August 2005, June 2006, October 2008, February 2010, September 2011, December 2011, June 2012, and December 2012 have in common?

Answer: They represented significant price lows in silver, AND those lows were confirmed by the weekly stochastic (14,3,3) indicator and the weekly TDI Trade Signal Line (13,5) as shown in the following chart of silver prices since 2004. Note the red circles showing price lows and corresponding turns in the stochastic and TDI indicators from oversold levels. (Information on the stochastic and TDI are here and here.)

1.png

The ten year chart of silver prices is plotted on a logarithmic scale and shows a highly volatile exponential increase in prices over that ten year period. Note the higher trend line extends to approximately $100 by the end of 2013. Prediction – Certainly Not! Possibility – Yes!

The highs in 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2011 were at or above that trend line. A price of $15 in 2006 was just as extreme as a nearly $50 price in 2011 and a possible $100 price within the next two years. Will silver prices spike that high? Time will tell, but before you dismiss such a price as unlikely, consider the following:

  • Will the US government balance its budget and eliminate deficit spending? The increase in national debt correlates over the last decade with the increasing prices of silver and gold.
  • Will the Federal Reserve reduce the monetary base and cease “printing money?” Eventually consumer price inflation will get much worse, and people will transfer digital money into real money, thereby driving up the prices of gold and silver. What else can the average family do to preserve their purchasing power?
  • Will the $700,000,000,000,000 or so in derivatives all “work out well” with no disasters, defaults, or destruction? Consider Enron, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, MFGlobal, Fannie Mae, Greece, Spain, France, missing gold from bank vaults, and peace prospects in Middle East.
  • Will the world become a safer and saner place in the next few years? Why have guns sales gone ballistic since early November? Why are certain types of ammunition all but unavailable? Why did the US Mint halt production of Silver Eagles in December? Why did Gold and Silver Eagles set sales records last month? Are conditions in the financial world as optimistic, safe, and sane as the commentators on financial TV want us to believe?

So is $100 silver possible? The better question is “How soon will we see $100 silver?”

Details of the Graphical Analysis

  • The chart shows weekly price data plotted on a logarithmic scale. The stochastic and TDI indicators are standard indicators.
  • The stochastic indicator is considered “oversold” when it sinks below 20 on a scale from 0 to 100. It is usually considered a “buy-signal” when the stochastic is oversold and then turns higher along with price.
  • The TDI (scale 0 to 100) is “oversold” below 50. The best “buy-signals” occur when it is very low – such as 30 – and then turns up.
  • The red circles show oversold and turning up Stochastic and TDI conditions along with the price lows in silver.
  • Exception: The price low of 2007 occurred after the stochastic indicator turned up but a month before the TDI turned up. The other ten price lows were confirmed by both indicators and price turning up at approximately the same time.
  • Each red circle indicates a tradable price low but some were better than others. For example, missing the early 2005 low was unimportant since there was another good low later in 2005. Similarly, the September and December 2011 lows were not as low as the excellent buy point in June 2012.

More: http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-prices-%E2%80%93-big-picture-9511

GE Christenson

aka Deviant Investor

Turd Ferguson's picture

It's like the whole "drone thing"

MODERATOR

On the surface, what's the big deal? To me, once you've moved to Yemen and begun to fight with the Bad Guys, you've surrendered the rights bestowed upon your citizenship. You are fair game and no different from any other "combatant".

But who's to say that 50 years from now...20 years from now...shit, two years from now!...the same argument can't be made for any "enemy of the state". If the commander-in-chief can kill Anwar al-Alwaki because, in killing him it ostensibly saves American lives, then why can't the president order the murder of any U.S. citizen under similar circumstances, not only in Yemen but Yonkers, Youngstown or Yuma?

It is an extremely slippery slope. If you think it's foolish to worry about and highly unlikely, consider other things that were foolish to worry about and highly unlikely 10-20 years ago.

Beastly Stack's picture

For the Trader

For the interested trader- Chinese data out tonight and the Canadian Employment #in the AM

http://tradermartinstake.blogspot.com/

Turd Ferguson's picture

C'mon man

MODERATOR

Read the thread! The link to this is posted in it!

achmachat's picture

Bollocks and Freedom Girls

I was corresponding with the guy we both ordered them from, and he was telling me that he's almost certain that he'll be able to ship them in a month. He kept the 6-8 weeks on there just to make sure that he doesn't promise anything he can't keep.

The Green Manalishi's picture

Sorry Turd

Long day

Horst's picture

Further margin decreases in gold and silver

Down another ~5%.

http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/clearing/files/Chadv13-070.pdf

Mind you, certain individuals in the metals's space have been cheering that open interest in gold and silver remains high despite dull market action and low sentiment. They have been interpreting that as good news, that "there are strong hands in this markets that won't part with their metal".

I don't. First of all, it's not metal, it's paper. Over 99% of futures contracts are settled in paper. Even if 10% of open interest stands at first day notice, 90% of more of that will settle for paper later, either via rolling over or going for EFP/EFS settlement (Google it, I am not going to explain these terms).

Second, the sole reason for the high open interest is low margins. If a gold futures contract costs 10k$ instead of 20k$, what do you think, will more people buy them or less?

Louie's picture

@ Eric Original

I have been glad to see you around again.

Hampeed on! 

Urban Roman's picture

So God made a banker

God said, “I need someone who doesn’t grow anything or make anything but who will borrow money from the public at 0% interest and then lend it back to the public at 2% or 5% or 10% and pay himself a bonus for doing so.”

So God made a banker.

Money Jerk

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/so-god-made-a-banker-2013-02-06

... hope this doesn't offend any of our atheist Turdites ...

Swineflogger's picture

Not Picking a Fight - Just Reporting

Went to my LCS yesterday and inquired about ASE's.  He said he was on allocation for 2013's with a large premium (+$5 over) BUT THAT HE COULD GET ALL THE back year ASE's I wanted at a much lower premium.  FWIW.

Love you Turd.

Oink to the Fourth Power

ballyale's picture

Horse Sh%%t Lasagne.

Now that's what I call real Hedonic Deflation not simply economic H.D. .

For those of you unfamiliar with the term, and why should you, this is one major way the Gov't scams us all as to what the true inflation level is.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedonic_index

By the way Hedonic is a Greek word that is defined as "something which is of, relates to or is marked by pleasure. Hedonic is an adjective which related to the likes and dislikes of a person. It means something which is devoted to pleasure". Conflating or combining  an unknown Greek word with a known word deflation is pure Orwellian by its nature.

What H.D. really means is to reduce one's pleasure of eating quality food by substituting it with the price of lesser forms of beef or chicken, or Horse Meat, but reporting it as the same VALUE as Prime Beef. According to the H.D. Gov't scum, Horse Meat is the same value, but not  the same price as Prime Beef. Thus there is no inflation. Got it?

http://www.blurtit.com/q490434.html

This is simply another way that our Criminal Bureaucrats in  the Gov't twist words and numbers. What H.D. really means is a deflation of pleasure, done by substituting  lower grade meats, what all, for those previously consumed and then saying that there really was no price increase at all!!!

Substituting drug tainted Horse meat for beef goes beyond the pale. It's a criminal act. "Mislabeled",  my ass. If it weren't for the dangerous drugs that go into horses, I wouldn't mind so much. The amount of salt, sugar and whatever they  put into processed crap these days, it's no wonder, the consumer can't tell the difference.

Anyone who is so stupid as to believe the lying labels on processed food crap is well ....

Anyone who actually buys this crap, has been brainwashed by commercials and  is too lazy to actually buy fresh meat and vegetables, even frozen veggies.

Lazy, Lazy, Lazy. And oh! you might have to wash the dishes. My God. What a chore! You might miss a single minute of your favorite stupid sitcom, before the 4 minute ads come on.

I would guess those 300 lb. disabled food stamp recipients going around in scooters don't actually get up from them to actually cook real food when the micro wave is only a scooter away?

Conclusion: Food stamps should only be allowed for fresh meat, fresh or dried fruits or vegetables and nothing else.  Can you imagine the Holler and Groans that our Criminal Congressmess (SIC) would usher forth? How about the food processing industry? The MSM would scream bloody murder that the economy would nose dive. They wouldn't utter a peep about the bloody slow murder that the food processors are committing and perpetrating every day on the US population, nor the induced diabetes health costs.

My God, how could the massive gov't subsidies to the few Sugar industries ever survive, should that happen? I guess there is no correlation between sugar subsidies, obesity, Obumma Care and Health Care costs? Is there?

Bally.

P.S. I hope the term "Congressmess" takes hold. I just made it up because of the food mess.

It won't be long before the kennels of abandoned dogs get onto the market. Oops, it already has happened in at least on one reported Chinese restaurant.

What's amazing is that no one could tell the difference between horse and cow.

punchbowl's picture

Anwar

Two often missed facts about Al-Awlaki.

(a)  Al-Awlaki dined at the pentagon AFTER 911.

(b)  His 16 year old son born in Colorado was also murdered in the strike.  Does that not rub anyone the wrong way?

The Green Manalishi's picture

Slightly off-topic question for the Brits here.

How is business since Christmas? 

I been running a small IT firm for 13 years in the South of England, and it's been the quietest Jan/Feb I've ever known?

Starting to think we are getting to a crunch point now here in the UK.

Just seeing if it's just me or not?

rtabit's picture

Fear

Old post by Franklin Sanders I like regarding fear:

ON FEAR: Several weeks ago I met a man so distracted by stories of conspiracies, manipulations, globalism, etc. that he was nearly disabled from life. Nor is this the first time I've met such people, & they break my heart.
 
Now all you unbelievers will just have to bear with me here, because there is no cure for fear -- especially the fear of evil's might -- except to trust in God.
 
Am I stupid? Do I not see the evil that rules in high places? Do I not grasp their schemes to enslave mankind? Can I not see their fearful progress toward a new world order?
 
Yes, but I remember also the tower of Babel, & I take heart. I recall also what you must never forget: evil is stupid. Evil fights against itself. Remember the Midianites & Amalekites who destroyed themselves in panic when Gideon's little 300 blew their trumpets & shouted? The wicked flee when no man pursues, but the righteous is bold as a lion.
 
I cannot barehanded stop even the evil that pours out of Washington, DC, let alone New York & Brussels. I can only pray & trust that the God of all heaven & earth will act. I can only can act where I have power: in my own family, in my community, in my state.
 
Meanwhile, I refuse to live in that fear that God promises he has delivered us from. Luke 1:74. Anyway, don't judge too soon. Just about the time all the wicked plans of evil people are riding high, God will throw them down in one breath-taking minute. Psalm 73:18-19. Count on it.
 
Fact is, all their schemes are already unravelling, unless you can look around & call this crumbling system success.
 
Y'all enjoy your weekend!
Bollocks's picture

Cheers achmachat !

That's good to hear yes.

Louie's picture

LCS vs. Bullion Dealer

When gauging the relevancy of LCS reports, it is helpful to remember that most LCSs are just that- they are COIN shops.  The vast majority of the people who run these shops are COIN lovers (numismatists).  They mostly focus on rare and unusual unusual coins. They dabble in gold bullion coins and silver because they know they can make a few bucks, but most of them are not bullion savey.  Most of them would not/don't even buy monster boxes of ASEs/Maples (for selling as individual coins), instead focusing on whatever walks in the front door.

Nick Elway's picture

Thanks Eric O..fear and anger buttons

It IS interesting...and true.

Quote:
Maybe Turdites should start to ask themselves, "Who is pushing my fear and anger buttons every day?"  "Why?"  "Who benefits?"

That's good advice.

I'm fearful and angry and stacking and prepping and libertarian(not "Conservative"). 

Somebody suggested Alex Jones work for TPTB  might be  to keep us all agitated and bombarded with gloom and doom so we can't think straight.   I don't buy that he's working for TPTB, but I DO have to turn him off to think.

Your post is a reminder to not let fear and anger cloud our judgment.

Thanks, and Thanks for the Bacon!

Nick

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