The Dog Wags The Tail...Again

Take it as a very good sign that this is happening with increasing frequency.

To recap:

  • As noted last week, the POSX sat at the edge of the precipice, near 79. We all expected efforts to, at once, talk UP the dollar and talk DOWN the euro.
  • Today, the man that Goldman placed in Europe, succeeded in talking down the euro.
  • The Gold Cartel pounced and initiated a waterfall decline.
  • To their collective chagrin, massive allocations of physical were sought at these rigged-lower prices.
  • To hedge/cover, The Cartels had to almost as quickly get on the bid in the paper market.
  • And you end up with a chart like this:

This is all well and good and clearly benefited us today. However, note that the rally stopped right at the 1685 resistance level that The Cartel has used to cap the market for several days now. As long as it remains profitable to keep the price there in order to fleece the paper longs, 1685 will continue to act as resistance. The hard part is in predicting what happens next.

And next week brings the Chinese New Year  (http://www.france24.com/en/20130207-asian-astrologers-warn-stormy-year-snake). If physical demand temporarily slows, then you can rightly expect more downside shenanigans from your friends in New York. If that's the case, look for prices to cling to the blue trendlines on the charts below. Maybe, during the holiday next week, silver sees another drop toward 30.60-30.80? Maybe gold bumps along in the 1660-1670 zone? Again, IF THEY DO, take it as a gift to btfd and stack a little more at the discounted prices. You can bet our Buyers of Size will take them up on it when they return from holiday.

Of course this doesn't mean that prices have to go lower next week. Far from it. In fact, I would imagine that The Cartel actually lost a little money our this morning's trade. They'll be reluctant to try that trick again at these levels so we may very well see gold break $1685 soon (tomorrow?) and head toward $1695, instead. Silver, too, could just as easily break higher and move back toward The Big Test level near $32.50. However, without sustained physical demand, it will be tough to break through so next week is likely still rangebound regardless because of the holiday.

The interesting side note continues to be Sylvia Platinum. Like gold and silver, Sylvia has been rangebound for nearly 16 months. However, just yesterday, she broke UP and out of her range...but just barely. This is akin to gold being a shade above $1800 or silver trading near $36. What will happen next? Can she maintain this level and begin to move higher still? If so, the August 2011 highs above $1900 come into the picture. There is no way that a platinum moving back toward 2011 highs wouldn't provide spillover strength/interest in gold and silver. Therefore, watch ole Sylvia closely in the days ahead.

OK, here are your random items for today. First, Brent at Santiago Capital in SanFran has cranked out another terrific presentation. It deals primarily with fractional reserve banking and is very straightforward and easy to understand. Not only should you watch it but you should forward the link to your friends/family that don't seem to understand the full picture. All you need to do is enter your name and the player begins (I entered "Percival Sweetwater"). http://play.goldmail.com/oali4cua0azc

Also from my inbox is this: This author always notifies me when he posts something and this one is pretty good: http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-prices-–-big-picture-9511

Many Turdites own/follow Silver Wheaton so I thought I'd pass this one along. Maybe they'll change the name to "Silver&Gold Wheaton"? http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2013/02/07/silver-wheaton-adds-gold-streams-still-focused-on-silver-ceo/

As if we didn't have enough to worry about, there's this: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/a-solar-superstorm-is-coming-and-well-only-get-30minute-warning-8484058.html

And these: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-07/russian-flyover-prompts-japanese-fighter-jet-scramble-abe-opens-second-disputed-isla & http://freebeacon.com/pyongyang-provocation/

And why the hell does the U.S. DHS need 1,600,000,000 rounds of ammo? Are they planning to shoot every U.S. citizen 5 times?? Wait...don't answer that. We need to keep "Main St" on-topic as much as possible. http://www.infowars.com/dhs-purchases-21-6-million-more-rounds-of-ammunition/

That's all for now.

TF

317 Comments

achmachat's picture

and the update:

ReachWest's picture

Big Springy Coily Pennant Thingys

First off, my DISCLAIMER: I know nothing about charting, trendlines, TA - I've merely seen what others seem to have done with all those cute looking coloured charts and such. 

Having said that - I drew a few lines on some silver charts of various durations and it SURE seems that something big is going to be resolved between now and the end of March.. All these pennant lines appear to resolve in the next few weeks. To me it looks like things are set to become historically hot to the upside.. (read my disclaimer that states my level of credibility is very close to nil. wink

So for Turdvilles consideration - I post these pretty coloured charts.

PS: Is coily even a real word? No - I know it's not.

Hondo's picture

Received this from family...FWIW

REPORT FROM GUNS & AMMO:
 
S&W: Running at Full capacity making 300+ guns/day-mainly M&P pistols. They are unable to produce any more guns to help with the shortages. 
RUGER: Plans to increase from 75% to 100% in the next 90 days. 
 
FNH: Moving from 50% production to 75% by Feb 1st and 100% by March 1.
 
Remington: Maxed out! 
 
Armalite: Maxed out. 
 
DPMS: Can’t get enough parts to produce any more product. 
 
COLT: Production runs increasing weekly...bottle necked by lack of bolt carrier’s. 
 
LWRC: Making only black guns, running at full capacity...can’t get enough gun quality steel to make barrels. 
 
Springfield Armory: Only company who can meet demand but are running 30-45 days behind. 
 
AMMO: Every caliber is now Allocated! We are looking at a nation wide shortage of all calibers over the next 9 months. All plants are producing as much ammo as possible w/over 1 BILLION rounds produced weekly. Most is military followed by L.E. and civilians are third in line. 
 
MAGPUL: Behind 1 MILLION mags, do not expect any large quantities of magpul anytime soon. 
 
RELOADERS: ALL Remington, Winchester, CCI & Federal primers are going to ammo FIRST. There are no extra’s for reloading purposes... it could be 6-9 months before things get caught up. Sorry for the bleak news, but now we know what to expect in the coming months. Stay tuned, we’ll keep you posted...
 
Related commentary from Bob Owens:
 
They didn’t know when they’d be getting anything back in stock, from magazines to rifles to pistols. Manufacturers are running full-bore, but can’t come close to keeping up with market demand. It isn’t just the AR-15s, the AK-pattern rifles, the M1As, and the FALs that are sold out. It really hit me when I realized that the World War-era M1 Garands, M1 Carbines, and Enfield .303s are gone, along with every last shell. Ubiquitous Mosin-Nagants—of which every gun store always seemed to have 10-20—are gone. So is their ammo. Only a dust free space marked their passing. I’ve never seen anything like it.
 
Every weapon of military utility designed within the past 100+ years is gone. This isn’t a society stocking up on certain guns because they fear they may be banned. This is a society preparing for war.
 
Barack Obama, Dianne Feinstein and the rest of the Statists have done more to promote gun ownership than the NRA ever did. Well done, Democrats!
SubjectivObject's picture

An opposing argument for the

Turd Ferguson's picture

Here is yours truly from one week ago

MODERATOR

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/265949#comment-265949

Btw, silver OI remains high. Just last night it was 151,562.

Response to: Running stops
Fat Willie's picture

Hondo

Great info.   Thanks for sharing!   

department of truth's picture

thought for the day

usk's picture

JPM is the devil. Period.

Look at this paper: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/02/06/e-mails-imply-jpmorgan-knew-some-mortgage-deals-were-bad/?smid=fb-share

and read the comments... I am speechless...

Rigging,  stealing and lying: that's their business model based on FRAUD.

JPM manipulation of silver futures is just one part of their global business.

This certainly sounds like yet more evidence of an organization that knowingly and repeatedly pursued illegal strategies to make money

Boswell's picture

Rogue Cop in L.A.

Not really important in the "big picture", but is all over the news here. http://www.latimes.com/http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/

It DOES show how much heavy firepower the local cops have and how they can get it   on the street pretty quick.

Gent's picture

CFTC Mail

I've been told and it's been personally confirmed that Blondie is the only commissioner who will reply to emails or snail mails

I've sent the same emails re: manipulation to the SEC and the Senate Finance Committee

Think I've gotten any replies? .. F*** NO

It's like the three monkeys .. See No ... Hear No ... Speak No ...... With their heads in the sand .... They're all evil!!!

Katie Rose's picture

Nearly Half of All US Farms Now Have Superweeds

As many of you know I am very opposed to GMO foods. This is due to the horrific goat birthing season I had last year due to GMO animal feed. There are no words to describe how awful it was.

So now Monsanto is at it again.

Nearly half of the US farms using Round-up Ready seeds are finding they no longer work. So Monsanto has come up with new seeds that also resist harsher chemicals found in more toxic herbicides, like 2,4-D and Dicamba.

The link is here:

http://www.motherjones.com/tom-philpott/2013/02/report-spread-monsantos-superweeds-speeds-12-0#13601728156151&action=collapse_widget&id=7869731

I think it is worth your time to read.

We focus here on metals manipulation.

There is another manipulation going on, sanctioned by the US FDA, that concerns your health and the health of your family.

Stacking good Heritage Seeds, is in my opinion, as important as stacking PM's.

This article made me angry.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Reach...

MODERATOR

I like your middle chart. March 24 is a Sunday but Friday the 22nd might be an interesting day.

ag1969's picture

Anyone have any idea.....

When the Freedom Girls are supposed to ship?  It is all I have to look forward to right now since I spent all my stacking money on prepping.

Libero's picture

Hondo

Please don't start with the gun crap!  For a half a day we were a gun free sight.

tpbeta's picture

This made me laugh...

For some reason I can't publish a still at the moment. But I loved Silver Doctor's image of a man contemplating a "precipice of a major upwards move in silver."

The picture rather argued the opposite.

http://www.silverdoctors.com/greg-mannarino-silver-at-the-edge-of-a-massive-breakout/

Bollocks's picture

Keiser on the BBC again...

Looks like they're starting to take him more and more as a serious political commentator. About time too (yes I know he had the BBC "Oracle" a few years back, but I'm talking about now).

Good interview and some sharp replies.

Bollocks's picture

ag1969 - freedom girl

I'm waiting for a tube of those. Such a great looking coin wink.

No idea when they ship though, but delivery to the UK was quoted as 6-8 weeks when I bought them about a week ago.

If you get yours sent over to me first I'll check them for quality, weight and all that stuff.

And hey, I'll do it for FREE. Me such a nice chap, eh?

Dawg's picture

Libero - Gun Free Site (not sight - Guns have those!)

Score:

Hondo - 21

Libero - 0

ARF

Al Huxley's picture

@Galearis: Re Dealer Supplies / Perspective

Thanks for the input regarding dealers' views of the world.  My experience with the LCS I deal with is that from their perspective there is no shortage, and their premiums haven't changed in years.  What I'm watching for as an indication that the pricing of metals via paper markets is coming to a close is when those premiums start rising, and the reason I say this is essentially in agreement with your point.  I suspect many of the dealers don't pay much attention to the macro environment, so they're just assuming that supply is available now, as it always has been and always will be, hence the static premium over time.  However, since they're buying in relatively large volumes, they should be the first to notice any real shortage, as they'll have trouble restocking their inventories, and I'm assuming this will be the tip-off to them that they can get away with increasing the premiums.  I suspect this will happen in the context of a falling paper price (maybe even a paper price that breaks the trend and makes it look like the PM bull market is over).  That will be the time to go as all-in as possible.

That_1_Guy's picture

Security alert Firefox

I just got a security  alert on firefox opening this page. I am a frequent and have never seen that before.

Could be a dud...but SGT got blasted yesterday with some nasty snot....they fought off the flu (without a shot ..i might add).

Just keepin an eye out.

Stack n away....GUY

Turd Ferguson's picture

Whenever that has happened in the past...

MODERATOR

It has been due to something locally on your computer, not the site. Be careful.

That_1_Guy's picture

Just checking

Turd....

Safety first.....fire Marshall Bill style.

Always.

I cleaned my cache..and visited SGT and doctors prior to it popping up.

Probably a dud. Never can be too careful. Its a nasty flu season.

Love the work man...keep the sanity.

Cheers GUY

Eric Original's picture

Speaks Volumes

Sad times for the blog when we have more gun shop reports than coin shop reports.  no

Hondo's picture

No more " bang bang" stuff from me

Just knew quite a few around here might want to read it.  Seems I was right. Of topic too, so I am in  a self imposed time out and won't post for a while... Oh wait...

stay safe,

Hondo

PS.  It was nice to share a little something back to this place.  I have gleaned quite a bit from here.  I am glad to try and give back a little. Wish I could do more for the silver part but, getting my arse kicked is enough!

ancientmoney's picture

@Al Huxley re: silver shortage warnings . . .

"they'll have trouble restocking their inventories, and I'm assuming this will be the tip-off to them that they can get away with increasing the premiums. I suspect this will happen in the context of a falling paper price (maybe even a paper price that breaks the trend and makes it look like the PM bull market is over). That will be the time to go as all-in as possible."

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You might be right, but I would not wait til this might/might not happen.

Think about it--you're a dealer, who suddenly has real trouble getting supplied.  You call your buddies, and they say the same--nothing to buy.  Do you think they are going to worry about whether they can "get away with" raising premiums? 

Not a chance--whatever they have WILL NOT be for sale.  They are not going to sell for a little extra premium.  They know what we know, but likely a lot more.  They will be sitting tight for the Great Reset.

NOW is the time to be going all-in.  Not when the game is over and the dealers are folding their tents.

Bollocks's picture

Yes, this is inflation...

...just as Max mentions in the interview above. They're substituting cheap horsemeat for more expensive beef. Another example of fiat currency losing it's purchasing power. Inflation is the result. Keep stacking wink.

-----------------------------------------

Findus beef lasagne was up to 100 per cent horse meat

Testing on Findus beef lasagne has revealed the meals contain up to 100 per cent horse meat, the Food Standards Agency (FSA) has said.

Retail giant Tesco and discount chain Aldi withdrew a range of ready meals produced by Comigel over fears they contained contaminated meat.

The FSA said there is no evidence to suggest the horse meat found is a food safety risk.

But the agency confirmed tests have been ordered on the lasagne for the veterinary drug phenylbutazone. Animals treated with "bute" are not allowed to enter the food chain.

An FSA statement said: "As part of its ongoing investigation into mislabelled meat, the Food Standards Agency has confirmed that the meat content of beef lasagne products recalled by Findus has tested positive for more than 60 per cent horse meat.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/foodanddrink/foodanddrinknews/9856213/Findus-beef-lasagne-was-up-to-100-per-cent-horse-meat.html

====================

The regulator calls it "mislabelled meat".

BS. Absolute BS. This is done knowingly.
 

ancientmoney's picture

@Eric O . . . re: Sad times . . .

"Sad times for the blog when we have more gun shop reports than coin shop reports. "

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It's even sadder for this nation and society that it has, unfortunately, become just as important to hear the gun shop reports.

RationalMind's picture

Why won't PM miners just hoard their metals?

Just found this great forum several weeks ago, and this is my first posting.

Given the blatant price manipulation that's taking place (which should be obvious to all who are vested in this sector), why doesn't the senior PM miners just hoard their output, and only sell what they have to, to meet any operating cash flow requirements (including loans)? The limited supply from miners, and their (limited) willingness to sell at the manipulated (paper) prices, should lead to a sharp discrepancy between the ask/sell prices (from the miners) for their physical stocks vs paper.

Dr Jerome's picture

Anecdotal evidence

Here is a family story.

Last night, a family member who has served on a city police dept for the past 25 years came home early, extremely agitated, still rushing with adrenaline.  His wife cautiously asked him what was going on (she read all the nonverbal signals)  and what she could do for him. He asked her to get him some ice. He put the bags of ice on his hands, which had bruised knuckles. She repeated her question about him what was wrong and he told her that he just beat the crap out of a low-life he arrested who resisted.  He banged the guys head against the top of the car for good mmeasure as he shoved him in the back door. Normally, he gets off his shift at midnight and has cooled off, slipping into be beside her late at night. As he talked to her, in an instant, she recalled many other occasions when he came home rubbing his fists in pain.

Last year he told her to "keep prepping" after years of ridiculing her efforts. He had been participating in some special training for his city department (hint: 6th largest US city). She was shocked.

A few hours ago, I was chatting with a neighbor across the street (different state) who said he talked to a truck driver delivering a  "riot control vehicle" to a city police department. The driver said he had been delivering these products continually for 6 months.

I don't like what I am hearing on two fronts--1) that city police departments are gearing up for something ugly, and 2) that individual cops are under so much stress that they beat the crap out of  people who merely need to be restrained, cuffed and put in the back of a car.

StevenBHorse's picture

I eagerly await to see people lite you up (again)

I'll start this round.

Eric,

Why don't you chide Katie for her reporting of agriculture? 

Sometimes, it's sad that this blog talks more about deer vs goats than pm's.  /sarc

The simple solution rather than to make passive aggressive comments like a little pussy is to ignore the people that you don't want to read.

PS.  Turd called you out personally, which I thought was very Lulz.

Neigh

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