Silvercorp Metals, Inc. (SVM) - Aggressive Growth Profile

Yes good points on trading the volatility, and when the market makes little sense fundamentally, it is good practice to lower your average trading technically.

I still have a hard time ignoring silver at 38 , or 40$ with a producer like SVM, and its a mistake i make. I dont understand selling a profitable growing silver producer in a situation where silver is up over 110% in the past year, and all of SVM production  costs are more than paid for with base metals credits. With that being said , i have been in and out of SVM since it was trading under a buck 6 or 7 years ago. In all that time , the company has not seen fundamentals as good for profits as they are right now.

I believe it is the wall street trading bots doing their damage on the  miners, and i see more and more trading capital being spent on the useless etf's . They are basically a casino, where you make some fatcat banksters rich as they skin traders both ways.

My scruples sometimes get in the way of me making money, but i believe the US wouldnt be in the mess they are in, if the investing public invested in real companies with projects in the US , rather than derivatives and etfs, ( which provide 0 employment for the unemployed masses. At one point the stock market was about profits and cash in the bank and success stories, now it has morphed into a shortselling casino where 90% of the bets are placed by the house.

This recent mini crash in the markets has funds and retail investors running scared, and the real silly ones are  buying US tbills ( worth less than toilet paper) because of the fear brought on by the manipulation of wall street.

On svm i wouldnt  spend too much on puts here,  i think the 100 million or so$ they have earmarked for the share buyback,  may affect the trading of svm in a positive way in the next few months. 

ALL jmho

I think it's a good idea for me to toss positive prospects into the conversation instead of concentrating solely on downward action. 

April 29, 2011: SVM closes at $13.59 (USA)

May 2 (next trading day after April 29): SVM opens at $13.11. The high on May 2 is $13.48. The close is $12.30.

These two days are interesting to me for a number of reasons when I look beyond the immediate action. Price will revisit $13.59 before the end of November. Looking forward, this is a trade I am anticipating, especially when considering the current price. There will be selling pressure at $13.60. The gap in price between these two trading days is not the determining factor in this trade. The gap simply underlines and places an exclamation point on the probability of this trade in very much the same way that the gap at $8.10 made trading the double bottom a must when the $8 mark is reviewed in SVM price history.

As long as the markets are still operating and SVM is a going concern with no major upheavals in management or mining activity, we will see $13.59 by the end of November. I plot trades into the future, usually concentrating on the next 6 months. Always important to have a plan and contingencies to that plan. I have an entire wall in my office that is an SVM chart with notes scribbled all over it. I have to use a stepladder to make notes in the upper areas of the chart. It might be madness, but if I do crack I will be able to afford a comfortable institution.

It's miserable for a lot of holders of SVM right now, but there is light... and it's a very bright light.

We bounced below the June low. Once that June low barrier was broken the support becomes compromised and I start looking to the next support level. The markets are a bit crazy for those not fleet of foot... or finger. Watching the lower BB associated with the 50dma - currently around $7.60ish. The action there will be telling. Watching. Second area to watch is the lower trend line (blue) on one of the charts previously posted. I'd also like to see SLV lend some evidence of a bottom.

*I picked up a bit on the quick drop below $8, not necessarily because I think that's the bottom, but I have a hard time believing the powers will allow the dow to crash three days in a row. Might be good for a trade... or not. If I make enough on the trade to buy a tube or two of silver maples, I'll probably sell. Also bought a bit for the long-term portfolio. ENd of year will see higher prices.

Pyrat, don't be looking for me to post during market hours this week. Important for me to keep my attention focused during this tumult. If I have anything interesting to contribute I'll jump in after market.

I've been nibbling today. I like that if SVM still continues to produce and silver doesn't drastically fall, we could be looking at a forward PE ratio below 10. Lower oil prices shouldn't be a negative for the miner either, as long as we assume industrial demand for silver doesn't evaporate in the continuing downturn.

The market was trading up on the rumor that some version of QE3 would be announced. When it wasn't, things are getting dumped again. It is really hard to to time the bottom of this market, especially when the Fed can seemingly push the traders around at will be announcing/or not another easing.

I bought Dec calls today when the price broke down into the $7.90 range.  My sept. calls are probably junk at this point.  Maybe the 11's will be good for a small loss near the end next week.  We'll see.

I liked the action intra-day as SVM finally bested the 50 period MA on the 15 minute chart and put in a strong $0.30 rally on heavy volume in the last 90 minutes.  That kind of price/volume action is encouraging.  But, there's so much overhead now, it'll take a big move in silver to get this thing back above $9.50 before 9/16 OE.

Oh well, live and learn.

Ta,

it is in sight of the 52 week low, so the question is, will there be any conviction shown at the current level? After today, I remain doubtful. That said, as a longer term hold, I only see this one paying a handsome profit.

I wasn't watching it tick-by-tick and i guess i missed it. What happened?

I didn't see that, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least.  This stock has retardedly good fundamentals and any chance to get it at stink-bid prices will be used to accumulate it.

Today's action is very constructive and those Dec calls I bought are up 50%.  I'm not at all worried at this point now that Silver has decided to break out with Gold rather than follow the CCI.

Ta,