Two Opposing Viewpoints

These ought to spark some spirited discussions over the weekend.

As you know, I'm what's known as a permabull. I'm long and stacking precious metal and nothing will shake my faith and cause me to sell. I'm only looking to add by buying the dips. However, some of you continue to trade so I try to offer honest conjecture about the short-term direction of prices.

To that end, I offer these two, competing views as to where prices may be headed in 2013. First, here's a piece from one of our bullion affiliations, Hard Assets Alliance. Not surprisingly, they fall in the "Turd Category", emphasizing patience and a buy-the-dip mentality. Lots of pretty charts, too.

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A Smart Resolution for 2013

J. Keith Johnson January 11, 2013

Preparing for a new year offers new opportunities in precious metals.

As 2012 slips into memory, many have now embraced the tradition of setting resolutions for the new year. Part of this practice often includes examining the past year or two in an effort to assess where we are today and how that fits in our overall goals.

There are many benefits to examining our past as part of setting goals for the future.

We learn from our mistakes.

Current goals can be adjusted according to milestones we've met, how well we've been able to meet deadlines, and the results of our efforts.

New goals can be established in our effort to grow, mature, and prosper.

But these exercises also help us gain a more precise perspective of the bigger picture. As our perception becomes more accurate, our larger goals can be seen more clearly through the haze of immediacy that sometimes obscures our vision.

For those of us invested in precious metals, such an exercise provides a constant reminder of the reasons we hold them. As an example, consider the past few months. At the close of the year, gold had dropped $127 since its September high of $1,784.50. Clearly, this could cause some distress for gold holders, leaving many to question their reasons for owning the yellow metal.

However, looking back only a couple more months reveals gold's year-end close to be more than $100 higher than July's low of $1,556.25. Furthermore, with total gains of 8.26%, 2012 is gold's third-worst year in the past decade.

"Worst" is obviously relative, though. Stepping back to look at the past ten years reveals that gold's "worst" years weren't actually bad at all.

The fact that 2008 was gold's worst year in the past decade should come as no surprise. The pain that most investors endured that year still remains fresh in our minds. With the DJIA having dropped 33.84% and the S&P 500 losing 38.49%, many saw their portfolios literally cut in half that year. Yet gold gained 4.32% in the face of the worst annual stock performance in decades, rising from $833.75 to $869.75.

We see this repeatedly during times when many other investment options failed to perform well. The second-worst year for gold in the past decade was 2004, when gold climbed from $416.25 to finish the year at $435.60: a 4.65% gain. The DJIA gained 3.15% that year.

An overview of the past ten years certainly adds to perspective. It's also interesting to note that the worst years in the past decade have been election years.

In fact, gold hadn't lost value in any year since 2000, when it dropped from $290.25 to $274.45, a loss of 5.44%. Yet gold still represented a safer position than either the DJIA or S&P 500, which lost 6.18% and 10.14% respectively. In case you missed it, as of the close of 2012, gold has gained value every year for 12 years in a row.

After the last three presidential elections, gold has increased in price admirably. Furthermore, it appears that the middle year between presidential elections tends to be the best for gold owners, with gains of 25% in 2002, 23% in 2006, and 29% in 2010. The exception was 2007, when gold outdistanced 2006 with gains of almost 32% in value.

Looking at the past decade as a whole, consider if you had bought the DJIA or S&P 500 stocks at the beginning of 2003. Each offered some admirable profits of over 50%. However, investors who put the same amount in gold would have realized gains of over 375% during the same time frame.

There's no doubt that the last decade has provided gold with its best streak since its 1980 high. With this in mind, perhaps it's a bit lopsided to limit our analysis to ten years. After all, our exercise is an effort to understand the bigger picture in order to prepare for the future. What if we drop back another ten years?

If one had invested $1,000 in the DJIA at the beginning of 1993, today they would be sitting on about $3,970. If they'd invested $1,000 in the S&P 500, today they'd have enjoyed a 227% gain, turning into $3,270 in their account. But if they'd invested $1,000 in gold, today they'd be sitting on about $5,050 worth.

And this, ultimately, is the big picture. Unless someone is a fantastic trader, nobody's going to get rich quickly with precious metals. However, metals appear likely to keep on keeping on for the foreseeable future.

Does that mean they won't pull back more? Absolutely not. They could see a serious pullback before resuming their upward movement. But the multiyear trend continues to be upward.

This is because, overall, the pressures that have moved precious metals over the past ten years are just as present and just as concerning – if not more so – than they've been during modern history. Very little, from a macroeconomic perspective, has improved.

- The dollar continues to shed almost 2% of its value per year, if we accept the Federal Reserve's figures. But if we use the 1990 formula for inflation, it's slightly above 5%.

- Our legislators have found it utterly impossible to balance the country's budget. While there was much media hype over the fiscal cliff, the reality is that nothing really changed. The can continues to get kicked down the road for us to deal with another day.

- Unemployment, at about 8% officially, also continues to rise according to the older formula. According to John Williams of Shadowstats, with all "discouraged workers" included (the unemployed who have given up looking for work), the rate is near 23%.

These are big-picture observations. They are what we need to keep in mind as we consider 2013. And it's these observations that strengthen our resolve to buy and hold physical precious metals for the long haul. With gold's excellent track record and decade-long upward trend, it's proven to be an incredibly enduring means to preserve, and even enhance, personal wealth. Furthermore, the current pullback may offer the best opportunity to initiate or add to your current precious-metals position.

When considering gold as one of your 2013 resolutions, we invite you to look at the Hard Assets Alliance and its SmartMetals account. SmartMetals is an innovative way to buy, sell, and store precious metals – without the hassle, risk, and uncertainty of buying or selling metals through most precious-metals dealers. Check out the free SmartMetals Action Kit for answers to all of your questions.

As you prepare for 2013, be sure you've considered all available options, along with their potential for loss or gain, progress or regress, blessing or adversity. Regardless of your current situation, establishing and building a core position in precious metals is a smart resolution for 2013.

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OK, then. On the flip side, a few weeks ago I received this post from a place called http://www.primevalues.org. They are a "Hard Asset Investment Advisor" and they describe gold as a "sound asset". However, you can tell by reading the piece below that they're not too excited about what lies ahead for 2013 and beyond.

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Gold Crash in 2013 or 2014?

Gold has been in a bull market for over a decade, but now we’re seeing more sideways trading than before and corrections in 2011 and 2012 were much sharper than any other correction during the 2001-2010 period.

Could this be a sign of weakness? A silence before the storm?

Can gold crash?

http://www.primevalues.org/ enumerates several factors that can pull gold’s price down… Here are some of them:

1. The weakening euro, potential euro crash: If this happens, the dollar will gain from it (as he biggest rival of the euro), thus pushing gold down.

2. Gold has failed to reach predicted levels: Prestigious financial institutions have been predicting gold prices of 2,000 $ and even 2,500 $ an ounce for 2012, but gold could barely hold the 1,700 $ level – another sign of weakening.

3. Renowned experts are predicting cheaper gold for 2013: Marc Faber and Jim Rogers are just two of those expecting gold to correct strongly; Faber even talked about sub 1,500 $ gold prices in 2013.

4. In a deflationary scenario gold could become cheaper: Deflation is characterized by lower prices, diminished consumption, as people “sit on their money”, spending less – gold prices could dive, if such a thing happens (and many economists are predicting a “deflationary spiral” for the United States).

5. Weakened investor sentiment: Undoubtedly the investor sentiment has weakened during 2011, 2012 and in early 2013, but not enough to drag gold prices down significantly – if any factor drags gold down lower, investors might lose confidence and this will again undermine short-term and medium-term price increase.

6. Automatic stop-losses ending positions on bearish trends: If gold goes too low, stop-losses will “detonate”, causing a domino-effect – which in turn might cause panic and could bring gold’s prices down (the frequent horizontal oscillations and sharp corrections have recently pushed gold closer to such a scenario happening).

7. Gold price manipulation: Major financial speculators are often manipulating gold’s price downwards (by short-selling a large amount of gold, creating panic among investors, who will then in turn sell their own gold, this way bringing prices even lower) – according to Jim Sinclair, Goldman Sachs is manipulating the prices downwards only to be able to buy up more gold for much cheaper.

And these are only several issues that we have to keep in front of our eyes before investing in gold.

Why 2013-2014 is the most likely period for a gold price crash? First of all: Watch the charts and see the “humps” with sharp corrections and uncertainty reflected in sideways trading. In addition: The euro crisis is deepening and the worse the euro’s situation gets, the stronger the dollar will get (another fiat currency that will have a short-lived period of strength). The dollar will get stronger (and gold cheaper), as forex speculators and investors will rush to the dollar from the euro.

Nevertheless, gold is a sound asset with intrinsic value. But it’s only good until people believe in it.

There are forces pushing it up and there are forces dragging gold down. When the latter will prevail, gold will crash.

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So there you have it. What do you think? Who's right? Could they both be right? I look forward to reading your comments on the matter.

TF
 

311 Comments

ivars's picture

@byzantium-escape

According to prof . Tainter, there are only 3 ways dying civilizations may confront collapse (which may be a quite long event anyway) -since the cause of civilization collapse lies in marginal benefit/cost ratio  from their ever increasing complexity of its governance turning negative. 

1) Expansion- looting and utilizing resources without paying the costs, like brand expansion- expanding the complex  governing costs over bigger resource base ( including  people) - reducing the cost per unit of civilization - I think the USA has been already long way on this ( globalization, export of democracy and American values) , but still short of real empire - I think that is the way that will be continued in a more aggressive way. This is also one of the reasons immigration is welcomed in the USA regardless of rhetoric-reduces costs per unit of civilization by increasing population that is governed with the same system. In expansion scenario I include also extracting more taxes from population and increasing inequality , though that could be called  internal expansion.

2) Finding of new energy source with sufficiently high EROI- either conventional or something new- that would increase the output radically thus diminishing the increased complexity cost effect and turning return on it positive- may be shale gas /oil can do it for some time? Disregarding the longer term consequences if any as what matters is survival today as if the USA does not survive today it will definitely be not around when the possibility to survive environmentally friendly might appear. Though, one of the first costs that will have to be reduced will be long term fundamental  R&D hence aim to find new cost efficient energy source will most likely will be not achieved. 

3) Reducing complexity voluntarily= reduction of prosperity radically, changing life style  plus opening itself for attacks from more sophisticated competing civilizations. The only civilization that did this in history is East Roman empire- Byzantine:). It thus gained 1000 years.  But in the end it was conquered by  Ottomans. For the USA, it seems politically impossible to lower the standard of living radically, while slowly might be too slow, but , if it was, it could gain it may be 50- 100 years as lowering USA life standards will also crash competing economies so they will need more time to catch up and conquer the USA , but eventually they will.  That would be isolationist/sustainability way.

The civilization I am talking about may be the USA and UK, Japan, Australia and Canada and Mexico,  or the whole West plus Japan though most likely in the first phase expansion will happen in more narrow space as no one will want to give up its share of power before it will become an obvious need to build larger  empires to spread costs more. 

So I think first it will be 3 empires appearing : the USA and countries I mentioned, Europe led by Germany and North + France   in possible cooperation with Russia ( resources!) , and China as core aiming at East Russia and Central Asia, as well as Southern Asia. 

India is an unknown, may affiliate with one of non-Chinese empires,  Africa will become again a place to be divided between empires.

So there are ways to plug the holes, just look into history how such things were solved by addressing the core problems. In the end, only finding new energy source seems innocent and beneficial but may well turn the Earth into a lake as every joule of high grade energy used produces increase in entropy and the same amount of joules in form of heat in the end of the energy chain.

daveyboy's picture

Michael Shrimpton is a dis

Michael Shrimpton is a dis info agent, the british are the good guys, saddam has wmd it was just moved to Syria, the anti american sentiment is really just a form of anti semitism, iraq helped train the hijackers to carry out their supposed 911 attacks, it's the germans, they are the ones responsible for this.

I am so fed up of these scum bag establishment pimps masquerading as truth tellers

As for what he says about jimmy saville, please be aware that there have been articles chronicling that evil man and heath and others for a long time. The media would never touch it but nontheless, what were then allegations, have been known about by the top media executives for decades.

Puck T. Smith's picture

@Sad-descent

"Pushing back for me is about learning not trying win a debate, so when I ask questions I am trying to figure things out rather than being difficult."
 

I got started down the road to where I am today around the year 2000 when someone made a post on a bbs saying Abraham Lincoln was a tyrant.  I was absolutely flabbergasted.  It went against everything I had ever been taught.  I wanted to reply that he was a great statesman because he prevented secession. Before I did I did a little research on the topic, just so I would know what I was talking about.  In the course of my search I ran across this article at Lewrockwell.com.

Secession and Liberty

It was an eye opener for me.  The rest, as they say is history.  It took a while to throw off all the conditioning, but it was pushing back that got me headed in the right direction.

Peace.

SteveW's picture

@Strongsidejedi, Puck: Mental Illness

The fact that the media automatically labels mentally ill anyone who goes ahead and commits a massacre gives us mentally ill folks a really bad image, especially when the person might simply be fairly normal and undergoing an intense pathological rage.

There are conditions that most everyone can agree constitute a mental illness, which increasingly are coming to be seen as the range of human biological variability, and which respond more or less well to medication.

There are also other conditions, again largely biologically determined, that society may or may not consider mental illness. Prominent among these is homosexuality, which was in the DSMII until 1973.

Pharmaceutical companies, in their drive for profits, encourage physicians to use potent mood altering compounds for what are often the normal, minor, frustrations of everyday living.

The underlying drive for social conformity, particularly in young children, threatens to destroy the innate creativity and individual expression that are necessary for a thriving, healthy society.

maravich44's picture

quick summary....

.

maravich44's picture

murphy?

.

Strongsidejedi's picture

@Kcap

@Kcap - your discussion about mentally ill people being able to somehow correct their chemical imbalances by meditation is so distant from reality that I considered not responding to you.

But, I will respond because I do not want people with mental illness believing that either (1) their disease can be corrected by meditating harder or more, (2) their disease is going to be worsened by taking vitally needed medications, and (3) their lives can not be helped by taking medications.

To the success going by "microwaveable kitten", I scarcely believe that you have done more in your life than I have done in mine.  I would never mischaracterize my life by attempting to compare my life experience with someone else.  I have no idea what your concept of a discussion is, but you are officially on my ignore list for now.  No need for you to respond.  And, more importantly, no need for you to denigrate the life work of others who have probably saved more lives in a few hours than most people.

Now to the person posting about mental illness and drug companies, there is no doubt that SOME physicians get influenced by the marketing campaigns of drug companies.  But, if you had a bacterial infection with a killer bacteria, are you going to use the medication to save your life or not?  The answer should be easy.  Swallow the pill (pick your red or blue fav) for seven days.  You'll come out alive and breathing instead of dead and buried.

These people arguing against using vaccines are the same way.  If you don't want a vaccine, that's your trip.  Don't make it the rest of the community's problem when you choose poorly.

You may be asking yourselves what this has to do with gold.  Well, it's pretty clear.

There's some lurking on this board who are here for political reasons, who are probably paid by some group or party to post in here, and who are so politically inclined to favor their misperceiving myopic political vision over actual sharing of experience and discussion.  I can tell who those people are.  I don't recognize your pseudonym from two years ago.

It's plenty easy to discern...don't even argue with me about that point.  The hit and run tactics by drive by propagandists are so obvious to me at this point that I largely ignore it.  The problem is that those same tactics are employed in the financial media sites and are meant to influence the markets.  I have a bigger problem with those tactics when on financial web sites because they are meant to intentionally defraud.

And, that's why I start talking and posting when it comes to things like the misappropriation of medical information (either yours, mine, or anybody).  Here's the rule people... would you rather hear someone talking about gold investment who has been in the trader's desk or on the floor OR would you rather get your precious metals investment advice from some no name lurker on a blog?  Would you rather get your medical advice from a doctor in person OR from a no-name blogger on the internet?

Get it?

Now, for your sake, get real.  Get real physical, Get real doctors, and get real financial advice in person.  I appreciate the blog, but it's only a blog people!

microwaveablekitten's picture

The best thing about this site

Full disclosure: I'm human, therefore, I am not infallible.

I love this site because of the awake/asleep ratio of participants. Exceptions must be made for the occasional troll but the vast majority of posters here are in hot pursuit of the truth, however unpopular it may be. These are the few that realize that most limitations are self imposed.

May we all enjoy limitless information, via the internet, before it is taken away.

Puck T. Smith's picture

Interesting Video From BrotherJohnF

He talks about silver in terms of Giffen goods, Veblen goods and the bandwagon effect.  He finishes up with a "prediction" that silver will repeat the same kind of move it did in 2011, only he sees it going as high as a $100, due to the bandwagon effect, before having another waterfall collapse, only this time he's saying where it dropped from fifty to the $25 to $30 range, he is expecting the new "low" to be in the $40s before it begins it drifting up again.  Considering where my cost average is I could live with it in the $40s for a while. smiley

Kcap's picture

@strongsideCHUMP

You actually didn't read my post, for you quoted almost all of what I wrote....WRONG.

I never said for the mentally ill (of which there is no such thing) to meditate to get rid of their "non" illness....

I said for you to meditate to understand how you can heal just about everything in your body.

The fact you would put me on ignore after what I wrote just shows what a hollow human you are....someone who can't "see".

Best,

Kcap

ps.  And not using vaccines would be the SMARTEST JEDI advice one could ever undertake.  You put more harm into your body than you would by not taking them.  Could you be any more clueless?

Karankawa's picture

@ Puck et al

"It went against everything I had ever been taught.  I wanted to reply that he was a great statesman because he prevented secession. Before I did I did a little research on the topic, just so I would know what I was talking about."

You describe my path as well.  I was on a PM board back in 2004 and got really tired of a guy that posted endless 911 articles and pics, so one weekend during the winter I decided to do a 'research' paper to disprove and hopefully end this weekend conspiracy stuff.

About a week later, my worldview had been changed forever.

Puck T. Smith's picture

"There are conditions that

"There are conditions that most everyone can agree constitute a mental illness, which increasingly are coming to be seen as the range of human biological variability, and which respond more or less well to medication."

Coming to be seen by who?

I will ask you the same thing I asked Ssj.  Did you watch the video I posted?  What biological factors are you talking about?  Biology is about physical organisms.  If a mental illness has a physical locus, like brain lesions, defective neurons or damaged receptors, it is not a mental illness, it is a physical condition cased by trauma or disease.  Even psychiatrists will tell you there is no physical pathology to mental illness.  No blood tests, brain imaging or anything else that can actually diagnose mental illness.  It is all based on behavior.  If I am wrong simply cite a reference.

ag1969's picture

Puck

I am glad that I agree with everything you say because I would never want to argue with you.

Back to the superbowl, was just checking in to see if silver was over 100 or the pig was at zero.

The Watchman's picture

TRUTH

big_pharma_church_600.jpg

Sad-descent's picture

@Puck

"It took a while to throw off all the conditioning,"

Lies our educators told us would fill quite a large book.

Dr. Fix's picture

There is only one answer to the mental health issue for me.

On the mental health issue,  I have to come down firmly on the side of a drug-free solution, and getting a persons thoughts right.

Of course, I recognize that this subject seems to  come down on two different sides in almost the same way as a political debate, and I'm probably not going to convince anyone of anything, but nevertheless, my own experiences have taught me that there is an undeniable truth that the mental health professionals seem to overlook with an amazing amount of regularity. Although I could write a book on the subject, I'll give you the Reader's Digest condensed version, since all of the gory details of my life are not particularly relevant to the discussion.

As some of you know, I did not have what could be considered a happy childhood, I was raised by  an extraordinarily mentally ill mother, and was kept in Catholic schools with nuns that also tought nothing of corporal punishment, and seemed to "get off" on humiliation of little children.

Up until this point, I felt like an alien on this planet, always an outsider looking at life, never a part of anything, and constantly incredibly uncomfortable in my own skin. I had overwhelming fears, which made it impossible for me to communicate with other people, and even at that young age, I was put in “special classes” to try to teach me how to communicate, without taking into consideration that I knew full well how to talk, I was just afraid to.

As life would have it, when I was seven years old I made an amazing discovery.

With a little bit of alcohol in my system, I could act like a normal person. My own mother could not terrorize me anymore, and the nuns at school had no effect on me. Even when they would beat me, or try to pound me into submission, I could just shrug it off, I just didn't care anymore. I was no longer in a constant state of anxiety, comfortable in my own skin, and for the first time in my life I felt like I was part of a community that I called my class, and set out to make friends, and was reasonably successful. Since my Catholic school was attached to a church, I had no problem with access to wine. (Altar wine).

In the interest of brevity, I can assure you that I was able to maintain a state of intoxication clear through my 20s. The only thing that finally got me into trouble, was relationships, ones of an intimate nature. I was constantly looking for “the right girl”, and when I found her, I would fall madly head over heels in love, and do whatever I could to make sure that she would be with me for the rest of my life. When this did not work out, the pain would be so devastating, that it would cripple me. But by simply increasing my "dose of medicine," and moving on with my life, somehow I managed to get by. I suppose the clincher was when a girl that I was deeply in love with, took off with another guy, after I spent years, and tens of thousands of dollars trying to convince her that she was the right one for me, and aside from that, I had already realized that I “couldn't live without her”.

Her rejection cause so much despair that I could not function anymore. I was drinking at least two cases of beer every day, combined with a couple of bottles of the hard stuff.

I was just sitting in my car crying, for a couple of weeks on end, and could not see any way out of it. I had well over $70,000 in cash on me at the time, and had considered the fact that I could probably continue like this for quite some time, but I was in too much agony.  I decided that life wasn't worth living anymore.

Then something dawned on me, I had always considered suicide the result of a mental illness. And therefore considered myself to be mentally ill. I did not know where to turn for help, but I did have a friend who had dropped out my life a couple of years previously, and I was vaguely aware that he had gone to Alcoholics Anonymous for help, and I remember him telling me that he would save me a seat.

I'll never forget the night, I took him up on his offer, as the tears would not stop streaming down my face.

I went to meetings with him for two weeks, drunk as a skunk, before it occurred to me that I might want to consider not drinking so much. So I made a commitment to stop drinking, and to do whatever it took to find some other way to survive.

I was unable to eat or sleep for nearly a month, as detoxing was a horrible experience. My sponsor took me to a psychiatrist to told me that I needed to be institutionalized, that he had never seen anybody in my condition recover without hospitalization, and medication. Since at the time, my insurance did not cover any of these things, and I was too much of a businessman to think that in a cost benefit analysis that I was worth it, I declined.

I just went to meetings all day, all night, and stay with people that were in the program in between, until I finally stopped shaking, finally stopped throwing up, and finally stopped crying.

That was just the beginning, as when all of that ended, I sank into the deepest darkest depression of my life, in fact it was much worse than I had ever experienced as a child.

I went back to the psychiatrist, who prescribed Paxil, and for couple of months, it was able to numb me out to an extent where I just didn't care about anything anymore.

Somehow, through the coaxing of others, and drawing on my own experience, I more than strongly suspected that this was not a solution for me. Besides, I had already decided that the psychiatrist was a shit  head, he was ridiculously expensive, and a waste of my time. I started studying up on how to think, and researched the topic with even more interest than I have paid to the markets and/or gold and silver over the past few years,

I bought audiotaped books of Dr. Wayne Dyer, a series entitled “transformation you'll see is when you believe it”, and even went through Tony Robbins “personal power”,

combined with many other books and authors, too numerous to mention, but I just wanted to give you a taste of not only my strategy, but my actions.

As it turns out, I needed to learn from scratch a lot of the things that “normal people” knew before they got to kindergarten.

Fortunately, I did have enough money set aside, and did not have to work, so I could focus on my studies.

( Despite the obvious obstacles in my life, I had always been a successful entrepreneur).

I continue to go to meetings, and when it suited me, I expanded my horizons to other 12 step programs, since it occurred to me that topics like codependency, things like "adult children issues" were profoundly affecting me as well.

An old girlfriend showed up out of the blue one day and we talked for a while, and after a while, she told me that she liked me more when I was drinking. ( I was always a fairly happy drunk.)

And with a perfectly straight face, and in all honesty, I was able to respond that I liked her more when I was drinking also.

It took me a little over five years to reach my goal of actually feeling comfortable in my own skin, and once again was able to focus on things that interested me,

and started pursuing a new line of work, a new place to live, and a new way of life.

I have been stone cold sober since March of 1989, and it has not been an easy journey, but I would not change it for the world.

So with putting all of my experience, strength, and hope for all of you to see, I want you to know that I speak with experience when I say that I feel very strongly that mental illness is not being fixed by the pharmaceutical companies, is being promoted by them.

Getting one's thinking right is the cure, and your own thoughts can affect your own chemistry. 

I based my own recovery on that exact philosophy, and after years of careful study, have concluded that it is the only viable option.

Pharmaceuticals are a trap, and cannot be considered anything more than a temporary crutch, but it I find it is rarely prescribed that way.

Most of the mental health professionals that I have met over the years, seem to have wound up in that position by trying to explore their own “issues,” and as far as I'm concerned, many of them are just as mentally unstable as anyone else that I've ever known. I also find far too many of them ethically challenged.

Now I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything,

I simply backing up my opinion with my own experience. 

silver66's picture

Bill Gross article

pay particular attention to point 5. I like his writing style

https://canada.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Credit-Supernova.aspx

Silver66

Quite the leather show at half time

Dr Jerome's picture

$100 silver?

My marriage is sure smooth because I quit watching sports! Wife has little interest and my interest simply waned over the years. I used to make an exception for the Phoenix Suns. Haven't watched a Superbowl since the Cardinals were there.

100 silver. Ooooohhh I like the sound of that. Can I dream? I used to be sure we were headed there swiftly, but now it seems unattainable. I have kept stacking right on through the past two years, switching my thinking from a big payoff to insurance against economic failure. But if AG does try another moonshot, I will watching Ivar's GSR charts closely and probably flip over into gold at some point, or pay off my home.  I really don't want to relive the euphoria of a nice upward spike and the shock of the sudden takedown. 

Seems like AU will be available to purchase in small quantities for little guys like me for some time, but silver could really dry up in another moonshot.

All y'all can watch the cheerleaders, but I need to see some metal!

Puck T. Smith's picture

@Strongsidejedi

This will be the last comment I make particular topic.

"@Kcap - your discussion about mentally ill people being able to somehow correct their chemical imbalances by meditation is so distant from reality that I considered not responding to you."

What chemicals are imbalanced?

"But, I will respond because I do not want people with mental illness believing that either (1) their disease can be corrected by meditating harder or more, (2) their disease is going to be worsened by taking vitally needed medications, and (3) their lives can not be helped by taking medications."

This is an indication that you did not watch the video that I posted, or if you did you are choosing to ignore the points it made rather than refuting them.

"But, if you had a bacterial infection with a killer bacteria, are you going to use the medication to save your life or not?  The answer should be easy.  Swallow the pill (pick your red or blue fav) for seven days."

As was pointed out in the video, if someone claims to have come up with a cure for something like malaria, the evidence that it worked would be fewer instances of malaria.  However, since the advent of pychiatric medications, particularly the SSRIs, there has been a phenomenal increase in the instance of mental illness.  If the drugs are an effective treatment how come there are more people diagnosed as mentally ill now than there were forty years ago?

"There's some lurking on this board who are here for political reasons, who are probably paid by some group or party to post in here, and who are so politically inclined to favor their misperceiving myopic political vision over actual sharing of experience and discussion.  I can tell who those people are.  I don't recognize your pseudonym from two years ago."

I don't know if that is aimed at me or not, but if it is you aren't paying attention.

It's pretty obvious your mind is made up on this issue and you are going to dismiss any logic or evidence that does not conform to the consensus opinion of the main stream.  There is not much point in discussing it any further.

Peace.

El Gordo's picture

Good story Mr. Fix

Amazing what we can do when we just give up and accept a few things, isn't it.

meddle magic's picture

Mr Fix

Thanks for your wonderful story!

Kcap's picture

Wow fix. You are brave and courageous...

Thanks for sharing that story of your life.  It is testament to how it works.  Life is yours.  It will always be yours.  You sculpt it like an artist, through positive thinking that each time reinforces itself in a feedback loop.  All cures being with the mind/body connection.  There is no other way......you are living proof and I can only say that people such as you. who are willing to share your life like this are far stronger than than most of the folks around you....you have mastered your problems and can speak about them know with the hindsight of your successes. 

My only hope is that strongsidechump will stop using George Lucas as his savior, look to God within himself and realize that all healing begins within....and ends there too.

My hat (no pun intended) goes off to you, sir.

Kcap

El Gordo's picture

Question

I happened to turn on the TV, which I seldom do, and there is some scantily clad female out there prancing around, and the thought crossed my mind.  How may axe handles wide was the space between Babe the Blue Ox's eyes, and how would that compare with the number of axe handles wide this lady's butt is?

Kcap's picture

@puck

Your points simply cannot be argued with.

Well done.

Kcap

treefrog's picture

mr fix

sounds like we went to different schools together.  keep comin' back.

Dr. Fix's picture

Thank you for the replies,

I will do almost anything to avoid a Super Bowl party,

the last Super Bowl I watched, Joe Namath was the quarterback, and I was seven years old.

Wasn't interested in  it then, and I am not now.

I'm just happy to have a few like-minded folks to “hang out with”. Thank you for being here.

That was a surprisingly difficult story to tell,

it still feels like yesterday.

Despite all that, I genuinely enjoy the life that I live today.

After reading the above thread, I just needed to share my own experiences in support of the assertions that were being made by Kcap, and Puck.

Sitting here handing them hat tips just didn't seem like enough.

Kcap's picture

Lights OUT at Superbowl!!

Hmmmm.

Kcap

ps. Makes you think of a FF, for those who know what I mean.

El Gordo's picture

Who

cares?  I could come up with a number of comments but they might not be appropriate for an open audience. 

paulindoon's picture

Re: There is only one answer to the mental health issue for me.

Thank you so much for having the courage and desire to share that (wonderful) episode of yr life. I was deeply touched especially in the context that a stranger but thankfully one from this marvelous community of Turdville would find the courage to bare a part of his soul so that others may learn from it.

I am glad that it is still working out for you & yr family.

Thank you Mr Fix. God speed.

ag1969's picture

Turd must be pissed....

Didn't he say he was taking the niners?

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