Two Opposing Viewpoints

These ought to spark some spirited discussions over the weekend.

As you know, I'm what's known as a permabull. I'm long and stacking precious metal and nothing will shake my faith and cause me to sell. I'm only looking to add by buying the dips. However, some of you continue to trade so I try to offer honest conjecture about the short-term direction of prices.

To that end, I offer these two, competing views as to where prices may be headed in 2013. First, here's a piece from one of our bullion affiliations, Hard Assets Alliance. Not surprisingly, they fall in the "Turd Category", emphasizing patience and a buy-the-dip mentality. Lots of pretty charts, too.

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A Smart Resolution for 2013

J. Keith Johnson January 11, 2013

Preparing for a new year offers new opportunities in precious metals.

As 2012 slips into memory, many have now embraced the tradition of setting resolutions for the new year. Part of this practice often includes examining the past year or two in an effort to assess where we are today and how that fits in our overall goals.

There are many benefits to examining our past as part of setting goals for the future.

We learn from our mistakes.

Current goals can be adjusted according to milestones we've met, how well we've been able to meet deadlines, and the results of our efforts.

New goals can be established in our effort to grow, mature, and prosper.

But these exercises also help us gain a more precise perspective of the bigger picture. As our perception becomes more accurate, our larger goals can be seen more clearly through the haze of immediacy that sometimes obscures our vision.

For those of us invested in precious metals, such an exercise provides a constant reminder of the reasons we hold them. As an example, consider the past few months. At the close of the year, gold had dropped $127 since its September high of $1,784.50. Clearly, this could cause some distress for gold holders, leaving many to question their reasons for owning the yellow metal.

However, looking back only a couple more months reveals gold's year-end close to be more than $100 higher than July's low of $1,556.25. Furthermore, with total gains of 8.26%, 2012 is gold's third-worst year in the past decade.

"Worst" is obviously relative, though. Stepping back to look at the past ten years reveals that gold's "worst" years weren't actually bad at all.

The fact that 2008 was gold's worst year in the past decade should come as no surprise. The pain that most investors endured that year still remains fresh in our minds. With the DJIA having dropped 33.84% and the S&P 500 losing 38.49%, many saw their portfolios literally cut in half that year. Yet gold gained 4.32% in the face of the worst annual stock performance in decades, rising from $833.75 to $869.75.

We see this repeatedly during times when many other investment options failed to perform well. The second-worst year for gold in the past decade was 2004, when gold climbed from $416.25 to finish the year at $435.60: a 4.65% gain. The DJIA gained 3.15% that year.

An overview of the past ten years certainly adds to perspective. It's also interesting to note that the worst years in the past decade have been election years.

In fact, gold hadn't lost value in any year since 2000, when it dropped from $290.25 to $274.45, a loss of 5.44%. Yet gold still represented a safer position than either the DJIA or S&P 500, which lost 6.18% and 10.14% respectively. In case you missed it, as of the close of 2012, gold has gained value every year for 12 years in a row.

After the last three presidential elections, gold has increased in price admirably. Furthermore, it appears that the middle year between presidential elections tends to be the best for gold owners, with gains of 25% in 2002, 23% in 2006, and 29% in 2010. The exception was 2007, when gold outdistanced 2006 with gains of almost 32% in value.

Looking at the past decade as a whole, consider if you had bought the DJIA or S&P 500 stocks at the beginning of 2003. Each offered some admirable profits of over 50%. However, investors who put the same amount in gold would have realized gains of over 375% during the same time frame.

There's no doubt that the last decade has provided gold with its best streak since its 1980 high. With this in mind, perhaps it's a bit lopsided to limit our analysis to ten years. After all, our exercise is an effort to understand the bigger picture in order to prepare for the future. What if we drop back another ten years?

If one had invested $1,000 in the DJIA at the beginning of 1993, today they would be sitting on about $3,970. If they'd invested $1,000 in the S&P 500, today they'd have enjoyed a 227% gain, turning into $3,270 in their account. But if they'd invested $1,000 in gold, today they'd be sitting on about $5,050 worth.

And this, ultimately, is the big picture. Unless someone is a fantastic trader, nobody's going to get rich quickly with precious metals. However, metals appear likely to keep on keeping on for the foreseeable future.

Does that mean they won't pull back more? Absolutely not. They could see a serious pullback before resuming their upward movement. But the multiyear trend continues to be upward.

This is because, overall, the pressures that have moved precious metals over the past ten years are just as present and just as concerning – if not more so – than they've been during modern history. Very little, from a macroeconomic perspective, has improved.

- The dollar continues to shed almost 2% of its value per year, if we accept the Federal Reserve's figures. But if we use the 1990 formula for inflation, it's slightly above 5%.

- Our legislators have found it utterly impossible to balance the country's budget. While there was much media hype over the fiscal cliff, the reality is that nothing really changed. The can continues to get kicked down the road for us to deal with another day.

- Unemployment, at about 8% officially, also continues to rise according to the older formula. According to John Williams of Shadowstats, with all "discouraged workers" included (the unemployed who have given up looking for work), the rate is near 23%.

These are big-picture observations. They are what we need to keep in mind as we consider 2013. And it's these observations that strengthen our resolve to buy and hold physical precious metals for the long haul. With gold's excellent track record and decade-long upward trend, it's proven to be an incredibly enduring means to preserve, and even enhance, personal wealth. Furthermore, the current pullback may offer the best opportunity to initiate or add to your current precious-metals position.

When considering gold as one of your 2013 resolutions, we invite you to look at the Hard Assets Alliance and its SmartMetals account. SmartMetals is an innovative way to buy, sell, and store precious metals – without the hassle, risk, and uncertainty of buying or selling metals through most precious-metals dealers. Check out the free SmartMetals Action Kit for answers to all of your questions.

As you prepare for 2013, be sure you've considered all available options, along with their potential for loss or gain, progress or regress, blessing or adversity. Regardless of your current situation, establishing and building a core position in precious metals is a smart resolution for 2013.

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OK, then. On the flip side, a few weeks ago I received this post from a place called http://www.primevalues.org. They are a "Hard Asset Investment Advisor" and they describe gold as a "sound asset". However, you can tell by reading the piece below that they're not too excited about what lies ahead for 2013 and beyond.

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Gold Crash in 2013 or 2014?

Gold has been in a bull market for over a decade, but now we’re seeing more sideways trading than before and corrections in 2011 and 2012 were much sharper than any other correction during the 2001-2010 period.

Could this be a sign of weakness? A silence before the storm?

Can gold crash?

http://www.primevalues.org/ enumerates several factors that can pull gold’s price down… Here are some of them:

1. The weakening euro, potential euro crash: If this happens, the dollar will gain from it (as he biggest rival of the euro), thus pushing gold down.

2. Gold has failed to reach predicted levels: Prestigious financial institutions have been predicting gold prices of 2,000 $ and even 2,500 $ an ounce for 2012, but gold could barely hold the 1,700 $ level – another sign of weakening.

3. Renowned experts are predicting cheaper gold for 2013: Marc Faber and Jim Rogers are just two of those expecting gold to correct strongly; Faber even talked about sub 1,500 $ gold prices in 2013.

4. In a deflationary scenario gold could become cheaper: Deflation is characterized by lower prices, diminished consumption, as people “sit on their money”, spending less – gold prices could dive, if such a thing happens (and many economists are predicting a “deflationary spiral” for the United States).

5. Weakened investor sentiment: Undoubtedly the investor sentiment has weakened during 2011, 2012 and in early 2013, but not enough to drag gold prices down significantly – if any factor drags gold down lower, investors might lose confidence and this will again undermine short-term and medium-term price increase.

6. Automatic stop-losses ending positions on bearish trends: If gold goes too low, stop-losses will “detonate”, causing a domino-effect – which in turn might cause panic and could bring gold’s prices down (the frequent horizontal oscillations and sharp corrections have recently pushed gold closer to such a scenario happening).

7. Gold price manipulation: Major financial speculators are often manipulating gold’s price downwards (by short-selling a large amount of gold, creating panic among investors, who will then in turn sell their own gold, this way bringing prices even lower) – according to Jim Sinclair, Goldman Sachs is manipulating the prices downwards only to be able to buy up more gold for much cheaper.

And these are only several issues that we have to keep in front of our eyes before investing in gold.

Why 2013-2014 is the most likely period for a gold price crash? First of all: Watch the charts and see the “humps” with sharp corrections and uncertainty reflected in sideways trading. In addition: The euro crisis is deepening and the worse the euro’s situation gets, the stronger the dollar will get (another fiat currency that will have a short-lived period of strength). The dollar will get stronger (and gold cheaper), as forex speculators and investors will rush to the dollar from the euro.

Nevertheless, gold is a sound asset with intrinsic value. But it’s only good until people believe in it.

There are forces pushing it up and there are forces dragging gold down. When the latter will prevail, gold will crash.

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So there you have it. What do you think? Who's right? Could they both be right? I look forward to reading your comments on the matter.

TF
 

311 Comments

Stack'em High's picture

The problem with "mental illness" is...

now EVERYONE is going to have a "mental illness".

No psychologists or psychiatrists are going to want to be on the eve news being asked why their patient wasn't declared to be "mentally ill", so now, we're all going to be looney tunes!!! If a person was willing to cause harm to someone else if their family was is in danger, and if that same person was also willing to give their life to protect their family, would that person be considered "mentally ill" because they would be willing to case harm to themselves or someone else? Will you be considered "mentally ill" if you say the price of PM's are being suppressed by TPTB?

Puck is 100% correctyes How many extra crimes/murders are committed by a criminal who wants to acquire a firearm. Removing background checks would save more lives than any proposed  or existing laws. But saving lives is not what this is about, it's about disarmament of the people. Just like the war on drugs isn't about keeping drugs of the streets.

Since I'm now off the reservation, Sandy Hook was NOT the worst massacre of children in the U.S... The Bath School Disaster was. 38 children and 6 adults were killed with 58 others injured. Not a single shot was fired or firearm used to commit this atrocity.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bath_School_disaster

P.S. Ever heard of Kennesaw, Georgia...

The New American magazine reminds us that March 25th marked the 16th anniversary of Kennesaw, Georgia's ordinance requiring heads of households (with certain exceptions) to keep at least one firearm in their homes.
 
The city's population grew from around 5,000 in 1980 to 13,000 by 1996 (latest available estimate). Yet there have been only three murders: two with knives (1984 and 1987) and one with a firearm (1997). After the law went into effect in 1982, crime against persons plummeted 74 percent compared to 1981, and fell another 45 percent in 1983 compared to 1982...
 
 
 
ClinkinKY's picture

RIP Chris Kyle

SEALS are an endangered species for the next four years

Dr Jerome's picture

Random thoughts

The Chris Kyle story seems odd. but I am sure that TPTB are happy to have guys like him out of the equation if it comes to former soldiers siding with the people, not that I promote conspiracy theories.

Sure seems that the MSM has reversed course on gold. I wonder why? Could it be that if they can encourage people into paper gold, it leave physical for them. We are actually kind of radical keeping our PMs stored in creeks and lakes. Most people would open an account and buy rehypothecated paper gold. I am sure that most of the companies that SAY the gold is allocated and stored in a vault with your name on it are just selling paper.

What a plan TPTB has: hold price of Au & AG down and vacuum it all up. Let the price pop up soethe people rush to we-buy-gold outlets, then drive it back down. Keep the cycle going. 

PMs are insurance and not an investment anymore. Miners? I am not sure. 

Southern Cross's picture

Chris Kyle death?

Sounds like  a US government CIA MK Ultra mind control killing.   Killed by a vet, creates distrust of former vets.  Killed with a gun supports marxist opinion for legislating gun control.   Takes out a growing outspoken leader and idol for US patriots.   Ask yourself what are the odds of this 38 year old guy being randomly killed at a gun range by a vet with a gun?   Very strange.  

If you doubt the possibility of mind control assassins you should study the subject matter.  It absolutely works.  100% effective.   CIA used.    

Katie Rose's picture

Dr Jerome,

I just have a few minutes before I head out to feed the goats and prepare for church. So for me, this will be quick.

Six months supply of food is not enough. Think about it. If we have a failed harvest, drought, problems with supply lines due to civil unrest or lack of ME oil, six months won't do it.

When people farmed the land out West, they always had one year's supply of food put up to last them through the next harvest season. A woman was considered slothful if she did not can, dry, etc. enough food for the family for the coming year. Supplies were often hard to come by, the farmers could not count on them getting through the snowy landscape.

I grew up with two parents who lived through the Depression on farms. I have heard the horror stories. During the winter, my Mom lived on squirrels, rabbits, etc. -- anything her brothers could hunt.

Six months supply is not enough. You could possibly run out right in the middle of a cold, icy winter.

With the Midwest still in drought, and all the other geo-political events of the day, I personally am not going to gamble on the Just in Time delivery system being able to supply my needs and those of every one else.

I don't like the odds that everything will be the same concerning food and food distribution.

ivars's picture

S&P price to earnings ratio

It definitely looks that is does not have much space to move up, as it is oscillating after severe crash, but it may short term ( few years), perhaps reaching even 30-35. I wonder if that is compatible with FED QE actions ... I guess it is, as we have seen direct correlation between QE and stock prices. 

There is something called Shiller P/E valuation which gives much clearer picture what may happen:

From this one, it is clear the of Shiller P/E top will not go over 25 before retreating. How much is that in ordinary P/E ratio? 20?  Have to figure out what is the difference. Shiller P/E clearly shows much more realistic signal in terms of chart movement patterns, so is the right one to use.

BIGNASTY's picture

In case anyone missed it

Hate to go off subject but, I missed this story this last week. This may have already been posted but too good to miss.

http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=Rk8-ePGqBmM&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DRk8-ePGqBmM

Orange's picture

How to price Gold

In depth article on the difficulties in establishing a price for gold.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-02/guest-post-misunderstanding-gold-demand

Conclusion

The main point that I have tried to show is that the demand numbers used in most gold market reports do not measure the demand side of the price formation process.  The same could be said about the supply number.  These two numbers are connected through the quantity balance constraint but they are not the cause of the gold price.

Gold market analysts have a tougher job than other financial analysts.  In Value Investors Hate Gold, I argue that it is more difficult to analyze the yellow metal than equities because quantitative measures such as yield, cash flows, balance sheet leverage, and growth rates provide a fundamental basis for analysis. Gold has none of those things.

The fundamentals of gold are the current purchasing power of money; expectations about the future purchasing power of money; the growth rates of various national money supplies; the volume of bad debts in the system; expected growth rates of bad debts; the attractiveness of other available investments; and the investor’s preference for consumption rather than investment.   These factors do not act directly on the gold price.  Instead, they are focused through the prism of investor preferences, which are not measurable.  The price is the ultimate measurement of how investors view these factors.   Gold presents a paradox: that which drives the price cannot be measured, that which can be measured does not drive the price.

Robert wishes to thank Mr. James Hickling of GoldMoney.com for assistance in copy editing the final draft.

 
 
sengfarmer's picture

Ivars

Thank you for your response.

In reply:

1. Yes I totally agree with you that one should understand as much as possible about purported facts. You will find that my conclusions are based on extensive study and are corroborated with evidence from major news sources, experts in the field and data from the US government. Cross referencing and multiple credible sources are necessary to TRY to arrive at a valid conclusion.

2. I am in agreement with you on these statements. I did not agree with you on your earlier statement that the military was an asset whose value would be further increased with further usage globally. It is an asset for the US government in the preservation of the petrodollar scheme and any benefit we taxpayers get is at a huge cost to domestic life style when it collapses.

3. I am slightly offended by the shouting out statement but it is of no consequence, once you understand the situation you might conclude that shouting out is necessary to awaken the masses to the fraud and corruption being perpetrated.

Your assumption and comparing it to insurance is way off base. In insurance when you buy a policy, you must have the underlying asset that is being insured. A derivative does not need that underlying asset but is a bet made on the performance of someone  elses  asset.

Now take into consideration that derivatives are piled one atop another on that single underlying asset and the risk of failure becomes magnified. It is an inverted pyramid of risk with each additional layer at greater risk from the underlying.

Your netting out theory does work in real insurance because the insurance company can determine risk from models and adjust their premiums from such.

In derivatives there is no definitive model. If there were  the collapse of Lehman, Bear Stearns, the need for bailing out AIG and the recent losses by the London Whale for JPM wouldn't have occured as they would have "netted" out.

Links for trying to understand derivatives:

This first one is dated because it still refers to the notional value of derivatives as being 1.4 quadrillion as determined by the BIS. They have recently overhauled their accounting methods and have cut that number in half??

http://www.goldonomic.com/derivatives.htm 

In this article notice the amount of Interest Rate Swaps derivatives held by the big banks and put that into the contest of the LIBOR scandal in which those same big banks collude to fix the interest rates. It is vitally important to keep interest rates low and that is probably why nothing is being done about the manipulation.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1326469500.php

On notional value becoming real value.

http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/02/24/when-does-notional-value-become-real-value/

And lastly the documentation of the problem from the IMF is posted in this article.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2972251/posts

¤'s picture

potentially huge implications imho

Japan Pension Fund’s Bonds Too Many If Abe Succeeds, Mitani Says

 
 

Japan’s public pension fund, the world’s biggest manager of retirement savings, is considering the first changes to its asset structure in seven years as a new government pursues policies that could erode the value of $747 billion in local bonds.

Managers of the Government Pension Investment Fund, which oversees about 108 trillion yen ($1.16 trillion) in assets, will begin talks in April about whether to reduce its 67 percent target allocation to domestic bonds, Takahiro Mitani, who has been president since 2010, said in a Feb. 1 interview in Tokyo.

The fund may increase holdings in emerging market stocks and is evaluating alternative assets, he said.

The GPIF, as the fund created in 2006 is known, didn’t alter the structure of its holdings during the worst global financial crisis in 80 years or in response to the 2011 earthquake and nuclear disaster. Talks to shift its positions come as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the Bank of Japan pledge to restore economic growth and spur inflation, which will mean higher interest rates, Mitani said.

“If we think about the future and if interest rates go up, then 67 percent in bonds does look harsh,” Mitani, who was anexecutive director at the Bank of Japan when it bought shares from banks in 2002, said. “We will review this soon. We will begin discussions for this in April-to-May. Any changes to our portfolio could begin at the end of the next fiscal year.”

GPIF, one of the biggest buyers of Japanese government bonds, held 69.3 trillion yen, or 64 percent of total assets, in domestic bonds at the end of September, according to its latest quarterly financial statement. That compares with 12 trillion yen, or 11 percent, in Japanese stocks. The asset manager had 9.6 trillion yen, or 9 percent of its portfolio, in foreign bonds and 12.6 trillion yen, or 12 percent, in overseas stocks....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-03/japan-pension-fund-s-bonds-too-many-if-abe-succeeds-mitani-says.html

DPH: This is a big deal if true and the boring nature of the story doesn't say what I'm reading between the lines.

Japan is essentially proposing to back away from their own bonds (probably bonds in general) in a serious way and getting into equities because once the Yen devalues to the extent they are planning means that the NIKKEI will hit 15,000-20,000 easily in the ensuing market MELT UP from that JPY devaluation.

There's a lesson and a glimpse into the future here if you see it for what it could easily become over there and then here if the Fed pursues anything close to what the BOJ is proposing.

Consider the term 'capital controls' and the linked post below and what $19.4 trillion could accomplish if steered towards equities or UST's if mandated/controlled...

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/266775#comment-266775

And just for kicks...

Urban Roman's picture

Presented without comment

... make what you will of it ...

its a hit

ClinkinKY's picture

@ Urban Roman

Not until you "present a comment". Don't be shy:)

Since you seem reticent to caption your photo, allow me:

"Innocent children being hit by buckshot when inanimate objects go off". Will that do?

Mr. Fix's picture

Dr. Jerome,

My family got a real kick out of the picture that you posted on the first page of this thread.

Everyone here recognized it instantly. With the exception of the river in the front yard, it is remarkably similar to where I currently live.  

We were looking very carefully at that particular house a couple of weeks ago.

It is also well within our budget.

I love it, it has everything that I am looking for, including the free fish from the river, the hydroelectric set up for electricity, all of the wood that I could possibly burn, and in short, everything I would need to be self-sufficient. 

Enough room to grow your own food, and the freedom to do what I wish with the land.

My wife, found in the description that their summer is only three months long.

She hates winter, so it did not work out for us.frown

We are currently looking  at  northern Chile where the climate is more temperate.

We still have not gotten a reply on our request for information from Galts Gulch. 

However, we are continuing to look in that approximate area, and besides, “planned communities”

never seem to work out as planned. 

Also, I agree with Katie Rose.

Six months is not enough, unless you already have a way to grow, or hunt your own food.

Even then, one year just makes sense,

there are too many ways to destroy a crop for a single year, and the scenario that we are looking at,

means that we will need to out survive the vast majority of people, and after that, there will simply be more resources available, due to markedly less demand.

In the meantime, the only thing that matters is survival. 

¤'s picture

For our UK friends...The Shard

¤'s picture

Global Cyber Security Threats

proton777's picture

No comment

90YDdm2.jpg

¤'s picture

Happy Birthday?

And the next birthday coming up is the Federal Reserve. Will the new/delayed $100 USD finally be rolled out?

Happy 100th Birthday U.S. Federal Income Tax

On February 3rd, 1913, one of the two most historic events in US history took place: the ratification of the 16th amendment, which established Congress' right to impose a Federal income tax on Americans, and overturned Article I, Section 9 of the US Constitution which explicitly prohibited a general income tax. The amendment was brief and to the point, and read as follows: "The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes on incomes, from whatever source derived, without apportionment among the several States, and without regard to any census or enumeration." And with that, the US Federal Income Tax was born and has been with us for precisely 100 years.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-03/happy-100th-birthday-us-federal-income-tax

FEderalReserveOctopus1912.jpg

Big Dutch's picture

Odd coincident?

I find it strange that this record 43.26 tons of gold standing for delivery happened at almost the exact same time as Russia issued a critical alert for it’s citizens residing in the U.S. and one of their “sufficiently critical criteria” cited is the mass withdrawal from the largest US banks of $114.1 billion, the largest amount taken from these banks since the 11 September 2001 terror attacks.

Are these two things separate and coincidental, or are they somehow related?

https://www.google.com/#hl=en&tbo=d&output=search&sclient=psy-ab&q=Russia+Issues+%E2%80%9CCritical+Alert%E2%80%9D+For+US&oq=ru&gs_l=hp.1.0.35i39l2j0l2.2603.3061.0.5814.2.2.0.0.0.0.232.359.0j1j1.2.0.les%3B..0.0...1c.1.2.hp.TV7gyzLCNO0&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.&bvm=bv.41867550,d.aWM&fp=d80b5db311f9b150&biw=1229&bih=842

treefrog's picture

puck,

way back in prehistory (1950's - 60's) there were many more guns and much less crime.  at least where i was.  i grew up in a small town (15,000?) in central florida.  my brother, when he could scrape $15 together from his paper route, bought a .22 mail-order from an ad in the back of boy's life (a boy scout publication).  he was 13 or 14.  a couple years later, i bought it from him as he moved up to a 30-30.  i was maybe 14.  by the time i was 17, i had the .22 (for squirrels/rabbits) a 16 ga. semi auto shotgun (dove/ducks) and a lever action 30-30 (deer, bear, wild pigs).

kids, at least boys, hunted and fished.  during hunting season the parking lot at the high school was full of guns. guns in gunracks in pick-up trucks, guns in the back seat, guns in the trunk.  i kept mine (several) in the trunk of a beat up old ford.  kids went hunting and/or fishing before school, after school, and sometimes instead of school.   aside from being fun, it helped to keep our families fed.

guns were as common as fishing rods.  not everybody hunted and fished, but maybe a majority of the boys (and a few girls).  nobody got shot.  nobody.  never.  if some maniac had come to the school planning on a massacre, he would have been stopped.  right away.

i don't remember anybody shooting skeet.

Complete And Utter Bollocks's picture

Excellent proton777

Particularly the second one yes.

I suspect that the original photo is going to be 'adjusted' by many, over the coming months, to help illustrate future events (and I don't mean  just here). It'll be an ongoing joke wink.

 

Swineflogger's picture

Presented Without Comment (God Bless You Pat)

Puck T. Smith's picture

@Strongsidejedi

"The thing you guys don't get is that when you put the patient on the right medication, the patient becomes a totally normal person."

I know many people don't want to hear this, but the medication people take is often the cause of their disease.  There is an industry that thrives on diagnosing children as mentally ill and keeping them medicated.  Rather than addressing the moral conflicts that children are exposed to from birth by their parents and that are reinforced and exacerbated in public schools our society would rather drug them.  We are experiencing the results today.

tpbeta's picture

Next week...

I have a theory. The Cartel now likes to hit without cover just to make the point that they are impregnable.  So this week will be worse than last week for raids.

Strongsidejedi's picture

@Stack 'Em High - On diagnosis of Mental Illness

@Stack'EmHigh-

You're on my point.  I'd like to refine your thinking on the diagnosis of "mental illness".

That diagnosis can be applied by any doctor or care provider (nurse practitioner or physician assistant).  The issue is that the medical records are now electronic for many larger medical groups.  Those databases can then be opened by federal investigators and the contents can be downloaded.  Some of those medical databases (like at Caremark or other "data" processors) include all prescriptions.  So, if a person is already prescribed Haldol, the government bureaucrat might assume that the person has schizophrenia.  That's not a correct medical assumption, but the problem is that many bureaucrats like to think they're as well trained as a US trained physician.  In fact, I contend that the unlicensed practice of medicine is occurring when these assumptions are made by an untrained and unlicensed individual.

Mental illness is a category.  You can not diagnosis someone as "mentally ill".  You can describe a person as mentally ill, but the diagnosis is something more specific like Major Depression, Anxiety, etc.  Those diagnoses have been defined for several decades by a manual called "DSM".  They give very specific directions regarding the behavior and observations required to diagnose the patient with that disease.

This is the crux of my concern.  All these politicians are walking around without medical degrees, no medical experience, and yet they mouth off about how "we're going to prevent the guns from getting to the hands of a mentally ill person."  Well, that doesn't work without a massive federal database with EVERY diagnosis and EVERY office visit on EVERY person in the USA!

This is impossible to do without the federal government totally invading the private medical records of every person.  In fact, when you buy any medication from any pharmacy and get covered on part of the drug, the pharmacist bills your insurer for the majority of the cost.  This means that the third  party payor aggregates data on your medication, where you were, and when you were there.  This also means that every refill is tracked electronically. 

Now, who do people want with that information?

The federal government has consolidated control over the health insurance industry.  That means they get to aggregate all the data on your illnesses.  PERIOD.  If they are paying a dime, they get the whole opportunity to track you.

In terms of gun control...that means every gun seller will need to refer to this database and let that computer tell them if you have a mental illness?  How does one change this database if its wrong?  Who's in charge of that database?

That's the point of my comments about "Anonymous".  The "Anonymous" netadmin types could be running that database.  I hope that people seriously think about these issues immediately.

Do you really want a hacker being able to change one entry in some federal database and ruin your life?

Strongsidejedi's picture

@Puck - if you want to give medical advice

Puck,

If you want to give medical advice, go to medical school.

Otherwise, can it with the scare tactics about medications.

If you're diabetic and need insulin, are you going to tell that diabetic to not take the insulin?

That's damn stupid.

Puck T. Smith's picture

@Sandiaman: re Chris Kyle

A couple of quotes in that article really drive home to me the deep hold that militarism has taken on US culture.

"He deployed four times to Iraq. Kyle held the record for number of kills by an American sniper. The Pentagon has confirmed more than 150 of his kills. The previous record was 109. For his service, Kyle was awarded two Silver Stars and five Bronze Stars with Valor."

A man who kills 150+ strangers simply because he was ordered to is elevated to the status of hero while a person who resists having his property expropriated to pay for it is considered a criminal.  

"When you are in the military, everything you do is for the greater good."

I'm not surprised that a paid killer would believe that about himself, but that most people in society would accept that same idea without question makes me sad. The fawning admiration of the people commenting on that article is depressing.

SaratogaPrepper's picture

Katie Rose

found the answer to your welfare deer problem

Complete And Utter Bollocks's picture

Keeping on-topic ...

A1Topgun's picture

@SouthernCross - Re: Chris Kyle

Snipers can be dangerous.

A Matt Bracken short story.

http://westernrifleshooters.wordpress.com/2012/09/11/what-i-saw-at-the-coup/
 

Lady Gaugau's picture

POTUS photo way too perfect to be authentic

I don't know much about skeet shooting but it seems to me that if a photog was able to capture the exact nano-second that the smoke poured out in such perfect formation, that rifle would have been also kicking back throwing POTUS out of his perfect model-like pose, even if ever so slightly. I think the smoke was added in post production—in the same way that a good visual effects artist takes 50 lbs off Oprah for her cover shots and fixes her face. That just looks so fake to me ... 

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