Ivar's Charts

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ivars
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I liked these ideas so saved

I liked these ideas so saved here for future development:

May be against short term realities a bit, but as far as I know Germans and also their history suggests that their aim to control Europe fiscally (with some minor allies ) is the real one and whatever they do that governing strategic target remains valid.

That also ensures that UK will be seeking to distance from Europe and mover into USA fiscal /financial arms as Japan has already clearly done.

The raising conflict rhetoric between Japan and China actually favors USD as reserve currency as it adds value to USA protection of Japan (the military asset behind USD )  and stability ( at the same time enciting Japan to get more aggressive) . Japan has already announced payment for this in term of increasing USA bond purchases and aid loans to developing world repayable in USD. Its clear as water that the destabilization of the region  is accepted or even originates from the USA.

Instability in other regions does not require enough utilization of the military assets backing USD as reserve currency, as war on terror has shown. Spending 2001-2012 has not increased the value of that as all as terrorism is not perceived as strong enough threat.

I suggest that Britains confrontational stance with Europe ( not military though) also helps USD as reserve currency, and we will see further escalation of that as well.

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Important medium term-debt debate ceiling delayed 3 months?
Quote:

House Republicans Plan Three-Month Debt-Limit Increase

House Republicans revised their strategy for the coming months’ fiscal debate with Democrats, saying they’ll agree to a three-month debt-limit increase without demanding spending cuts as part of the deal.

Instead, Republicans will use the planned Jan. 23 House vote on a debt-ceiling increase to try to force Senate Democrats to adopt a budget to spell out their spending plan.

“We are going to pursue strategies that will obligate the Senate to finally join the House in confronting the government’s spending problem,” Speaker John Boehner of Ohio said in a statement yesterday at the end of House Republicans’ policy retreat at a resort near Williamsburg, Virginia.

The strategy represents an acknowledgment by Republican leaders that they need to reassess their goals following President Barack Obama’s re-election and an increased Democratic majority in the Senate.

The Treasury Department has said the U.S. will exceed its $16.4 trillion borrowing authority sometime from mid-February to early March. Congress faces two other fiscal deadlines in the next 90 days, and House Republicans plan to use those debates -- rather than the immediate one over the debt limit -- to push for federal spending cuts.

Financing for government agencies is scheduled to lapse March 27, and lawmakers must pass new spending or cause a government shutdown. Also in March, Congress will confront the $110 billion in automatic spending cuts, half from defense, that were postponed in the Jan. 1 tax deal.

This coincides with possible continuation of upward trend in PMs till March while delaying the resolution of correction triangle till June- July-August, as some here including me have been speculating all along  if for different reasons, but anyhow related to debt and fiscal future development issues. VERY significant change in short term fundamentals.

If this passes as they say, this triangle becomes a must to close before any further take on direction. Which in the meantime means lower highs and higher lows.

Opportunities for stacking- until June-July, then, if USG fiscal situation does not improve ( why should it-austerity?) or worsens (e.g. war) , PM shall start next leg up as USG debt will be guaranteed to increase with renewed vigor and clear future projections.

This resolution might coincide with a change of trend peak in bond prices to down, slowly starting to cause inflationary effects and slow interest rate increases leaving debt cancelation at one stage as the only tool to stop it.

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This is how I approximately

This is how I approximately see exponential top and bottom lines developing on a linear chart. To project the RED lines which would mark the next move up in silver in quite wide range ( volatility, bubbles) , one have to take the slope of chart in USD/year and calculate the value in e.g January 1st of 2014 for top RED line ( bottom is around 45-46) would be about 100 which would be a bubble value. The rest of the range is possible, with average 72 USD/oz. As one can see, the price can be in between, but also at the top line of the current range - a bubble- or bottom-normal growth before bubble or lows after a correction. There is no way to compress silver volatility much as prices increase - so in % it reduces somewhat, but in absolute numbers increases enormously.

The first expansion starts around 4-4,5 USD and goes to 20- approx 4,5-5 times, than falls to 10- 2 times, then moves to 49 - 4,9 times increase, then drops to 26 - almost 2 times drop. So the next top line more correctly will be around 26* 4,5= 117, the next bottom in the correction AFTER the next top- around 57. That is I think realistic trading range for next 3 years, as long a USG debt continues to grow exponentially and undermine trust in USG bond based international fiat monetary system.

The first cycle was 6 years long (bottom line) , second- approx 4 years, 3rd will be around 2,6 years- they get shorter due to the exp rise of price- so the next breakout on bottom line could happen around second half of 2015 - so the bubble will most likely happen in early to mid 2014. Start in July -August 2013 and build up till Feb- May 2014. Then break like a rocket- but not below 57 USD/oz. With oscillations after that (above 57 below 100)  till H2 2015. Then next move up- the one that could be the last before exit 1.

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6 directions of strategy to increase value of assets behind the

Are reaction to these strengths that keep USG Treasury based   international monetary system afloat and these need to be increased in their monetized value in an overall maximizing way as some of them By executing might weaken the others.

First, nearly all commodities are priced and settled in dollars. Much international trade is invoiced in U.S. dollars, even when the United States is not the source or destination of the goods or services involved in the transaction.

Second, the United States has the largest, most liquid and most transparent financial markets in the world.

Third, many countries, including several with significant international reserves, rely on the U.S. for military protection.

Fourth, certain mercantilist economies rely on the U.S. as a destination for their exports. These countries manage their exchange rates against the U.S. dollar in order to keep domestic costs low, thereby accumulating large dollar reserve balances.

Finally, since a high proportion of the external liabilities of many countries are U.S. dollar-denominated, holding reserves as dollars is a form of asset-liability matching.

These are all areas for strategic planning and action to exert pressure to keep USD as reserve currency. These reasons need to be monetized in terms of its asset value- assets that back USD as reserve currency- to see where the divergence of the value of these assets with the USG debt can be narrowed.

The other option is to reduce USG debt, which I strongly suppose will also be used by default on FED when enough big part of total debt obligations will be FED owned. Or prudent fiscal policy. Or propaganda in that direction, but successful.

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6 directions of strategy to increase value of assets behind the

Are reaction to these strengths that keep USG Treasury based   international monetary system afloat and these need to be increased in their monetized value in an overall maximizing way as some of them By executing might weaken the others.

First, nearly all commodities are priced and settled in dollars. Much international trade is invoiced in U.S. dollars, even when the United States is not the source or destination of the goods or services involved in the transaction.

Second, the United States has the largest, most liquid and most transparent financial markets in the world.

Third, many countries, including several with significant international reserves, rely on the U.S. for military protection.

Fourth, certain mercantilist economies rely on the U.S. as a destination for their exports. These countries manage their exchange rates against the U.S. dollar in order to keep domestic costs low, thereby accumulating large dollar reserve balances.

Finally, since a high proportion of the external liabilities of many countries are U.S. dollar-denominated, holding reserves as dollars is a form of asset-liability matching.

These are all areas for strategic planning and action to exert pressure to keep USD as reserve currency. These reasons need to be monetized in terms of its asset value- assets that back USD as reserve currency- to see where the divergence of the value of these assets with the USG debt can be narrowed.

The other option is to reduce USG debt, which I strongly suppose will also be used by default on FED when enough big part of total debt obligations will be FED owned. Or prudent fiscal policy. Or propaganda in that direction, but successful.

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Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation.

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The biggest threat is the

The biggest threat is the loss of trust in the USG treasury based international fiat monetary system for all elites at the moment. While building up own escapes for worst case scenarios, they cooperate still in effort to maintain the current system as long as possible , though their own decooperative escape actions is increasing the speed towards point of no return .

As long as the USA treasury notes form the basis for the monetary system of the world, it is quite simple to figure out what and why may happen. The real  trust is measured in the gold price trajectory,  but, by no means, gold or silver prices can CAUSE this mistrust, though huge spike in gold prices would be a bit bad from propaganda reasons, otherwise, as I have tried to show, nothing is going to take the volatility out of either gold or silver market as their average price exponentially increase- no one has suppressed that since 2001.

So gold price is indicator number one in the loss of trust in the system, but it is an indicator, not cause. Cause is switch to debt in 1980 instead of inflation , to rob future generations instead of present already robbed,  however , debt burden puts limits to this robbery due to compound interest as we see as well. So there is not any wonder why price of gold correlates with level if the USG debt. Its natural- the more debt there is, the less stable the system based on USG treasuries is, and that is priced in in gold price - gold serves here as a standard, a unit of  of non-disappearing trust. It has the same trust in it all the time. The fiat regimes may be almost  as trustable as gold - in which case price of gold raises slowly - or lose trust- in which case price of gold rises rapidly.

Sine correlation between gold price and USG debt has been over 0,9 the last 20 years, all other nation debts and fiat systems constitute less then 10% in terms of their impact on the stability of the world monetary system, what ever they do with their debts or fiats.

So I do not know about boyz or anyone, I know that the USG debt based monetary system can not be dissolved in a panic way, and it wont. But the arguments or strategies to achieve that must address the issue with loss of trust- the trust has to be restored or maintained at acceptable lower level. And there are so many strategies CBs and governments can use to achieve this, and if someone like Chinese would openly try to debase the system they will be dealt with by military means, as for the USA elite it is equivalent to the loss in a major war. Many strategies, and we will see all of them in action as much as the options will show the greatest benefit to the system, combination of all 5 strategies that monetize assets behind USD or few strategies that could reduce USG debt ( like default on FED, austerity, sound fiscal policy, reduced spending) , but some of those contradict others ( e.g. cuts in military spending contradict the need to increase tensions in Pacific region surrounding China thus adding value to USA military assets)  so the most effective combination will be used.  Other strategy is to put economic pressure on Germany and military on Russia.

The 5 strategies are based on monetization of 5 USD backing assets:

First, nearly all commodities are priced and settled in dollars. Much international trade is invoiced in U.S. dollars, even when the United States is not the source or destination of the goods or services involved in the transaction.

Second, the United States has the largest, most liquid and most transparent financial markets in the world.

Third, many countries, including several with significant international reserves, rely on the U.S. for military protection.

Fourth, certain mercantilist economies rely on the U.S. as a destination for their exports. These countries manage their exchange rates against the U.S. dollar in order to keep domestic costs low, thereby accumulating large dollar reserve balances.

Finally, since a high proportion of the external liabilities of many countries are U.S. dollar-denominated, holding reserves as dollars is a form of asset-liability matching.

These all are potential parts of the USA elite  and connected actions to ensure that the value of these assets increase as the debt increases. In my mind, two of them has the biggest potential to be exploited- the impossibility to afford to lose USD denominated asset worth including loans by creditor class, and the increase in demand for military power the USA has accumulated using the same debt and world fiat printing machine.

The pricing of commodities in USD so far has not  ( Iraq, Libya )  given the return on investment into wars to secure this. So I am not sure is it worth for the USA to continue these. Worldwide destabilization of situation without going into war , creating confrontation ( e.g Japan vs, China wit USA expanding presence in Pacific ) may be much more effective in increasing the monetary value of the need for the USA military protection then direct military fight for resources. Economically the USA is weak, that is not the card to be played anymore.

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Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation.

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Ivars I gathered this rather

Ivars I gathered this rather interesting pattern from another mkt participant's musings.

2004: $9.
2008: $21 (4 years) [133%]
2011: $49 (3 years) [133%].

2013:$114 (2years) [133%]
2014:$266 (1 year ) [133%]

Does this fit with any chart permutation you may have designed or observed?

ivars
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Sirtitan45 wrote:Ivars I

Sirtitan45 wrote:
Ivars I gathered this rather interesting pattern from another mkt participant's musings. 2004: $9. 2008: $21 (4 years) [133%] 2011: $49 (3 years) [133%].
2013:$114 (2years) [133%] 2014:$266 (1 year ) [133%] Does this fit with any chart permutation you may have designed or observed?

Too fast growth, I think. In fact, the peaks were in 2002, 2004., 2006, 2008 and then 2011, so the separation between peaks seem to be expanding if we take all of them, slightly. So I would say 114 in 2014, 266 We may not see due to reset 1.

266 would mark such a distrust in the USD that something will be done to delay it happening. There are options, and many of them are already being tested out and planned for.

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How would 266 or even 500

How would 266 or even 500 mark a distinct difference in trust versus $10k gold? The death of the dollar is the story line passed off in the last inning where the big hands dump it on the sheeple. Parabolic moves of this nature signal this process.

ivars
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Firs GSR fork based

Firs GSR fork based prediction, for reference:

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ivars
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Sirtitan45 wrote:How would

Sirtitan45 wrote:
How would 266 or even 500 mark a distinct difference in trust versus $10k gold? The death of the dollar is the story line passed off in the last inning where the big hands dump it on the sheeple. Parabolic moves of this nature signal this process.

Well, depends on time scale, but the death of USD is by no means given and of course in terms of accelerating or delaying a parabolic process ( actually, right now it has been returned to exponential, which is slower) there is allways possibility for new delays and giving world time to adjust to the new gold price- as it has over the last 2,5 years. That calms things down.

That is what I try to say- too fast appreciation of gold= fast loss of trust in the USD based international monetary system- will be checked time by time by various methods powers still have. Not only manipulation, much more strategic including geopolitical and military efforts. Hence 114 might be OK, but 266 , if its is eventually reached , will definitely not happen in 2014 or even 2015. Perhaps 2017. Perhaps not.

One has to understand that the USD is not a pure fiat, there are assets backing it, and its both USA denominated fiscal assets measured in hundreds of trillions ( DEBT=someones ASSET) which no CREDITOR including China wants to see depreciating too fast as it will collapse its value so they will prop it UP or at least be neutral ( Japan will do the propping up by buying Treasuries together with FED), and USA military power that has been undervalued do to lack of tensions in the world( compared to the USA-Soviet Union standoff). Tensions are not so hard to create.

Third effort may be a default of USG on FED with FED acceptance, of course. That would reduce USG debt sharply, causing a similar decrease , perhaps short term (few years) in gold silver prices from the level they will be before that event.

Parabolic process is not parabolic before the last pullback, or inning, as you say, and that last inning even looking at USG debt curve has not yet arrived. There is at least one more , if not 2 retractions /sideways periods (innings) in gold prices coming. That is simple math of log periodic oscillations on top of parabolic ascent is an approximation. Parabolic process do not show the innings on the way, log-periodic shows them and follows thus delayed parabolic process.

Hence the silver price appreciation will be stretched out in time more than you suggest, at least by a factor of 2. And so will danger to the collapse of the USD.  In the end, there is alwayss a possibility to fix USD to gold after that, at higher price ( I think around 4000 USD) , the only problem for the USA is to get at least 50%-60% of the world gold reserves under its control. I think there is a strategy for that, lest see if we see any signs of that being played out. So far it looks only Asians are buying gold, but that is easy as they have money. The USA and FED has to play it much more cleverly and if needed forcefully. Historic precedents exist, and new ideas may also appear. Propaganda is one of the tools that may force population to sell GOLD at 10 000 USD back to banks who will pay with printed money, move it to their reserve side, put in FED as their reserves ( FED liabaility) . Then FED will switch ( buy) the gold from banks with new USDs for some price it seems fit, and move the gold to ITS asset side.

Mission accomplished, gold backed USD in place. The only problem is to engineer 50-60% of gold above ground to sit in the USA reserves, so to extract it from population and other countries which are running debt problems. I think that can be solved.

There might be a flash of inflation as old USD for gold flood the market in the end , but that can be quickly checked by announcement of new gold backed USD and some low exchange rate between the old and new USD, while telling the population it could never happen and forcing them to keep the old USD e.g. in bank accounts, then announcing bank holiday so there is no spending etc. I am still thinking of this scenario.

I always wonder why people think CREDITORS will so easily give up their most valued asset - loans denominated in the USD, hundreds of trillions of wealth ( 50 trillion in the USA alone). They will do ANYTHING to protect their value, and they have means to do it.

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Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation.

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How do I post a chart?

I have a chart I created on my computer. It is saved as a png file. How do I post it here. I have tried to open the file and paste it here but it shows up in the preview and not when I save. I have clicked on the image icon but it is asking for a URL and I don't have a URL. Any help would be appreciated.

Thanks.........

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I start to love the forks.

I start to love the forks. Like this one of GSR- hit the median yesterday straight and bounced back:

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question for you, sir ivars

Ivars,

So if what you say happens (as in US propaganda persuades population to sell gold at 10,000 to banks and then moves it to the FED), would this be somewhat of a repeat of what happened in the 30's? Would it be wise to just hold onto gold (and silver) regardless of the high prices and wait until after the US has accomplished its 50-60% hoard? Essentially, hold onto it no matter what as in the future (5,10,15 years or whatever it takes) the new system will be backed by gold assets? Is what your saying basically a 'fleecing' of the population for their gold, and then after the US accumulates what it needs, they (FED) will re-adjust prices again to what they see fit (and at this time gold and silver will be properly, or at least more accurately, priced compared to everything else)?

Just trying to understand your thought process a little better as my level of economic depth, when compared to what you do, is (metaphorically) just taking off from the 'starting line'
 
Thanks for all your insights!
 
-Friend
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FriendOfTheDevil wrote: So if

FriendOfTheDevil wrote:

So if what you say happens (as in US propaganda persuades population to sell gold at 10,000 to banks and then moves it to the FED), would this be somewhat of a repeat of what happened in the 30's? Would it be wise to just hold onto gold (and silver) regardless of the high prices and wait until after the US has accomplished its 50-60% hoard? Essentially, hold onto it no matter what as in the future (5,10,15 years or whatever it takes) the new system will be backed by gold assets? Is what your saying basically a 'fleecing' of the population for their gold, and then after the US accumulates what it needs, they (FED) will re-adjust prices again to what they see fit (and at this time gold and silver will be properly, or at least more accurately, priced compared to everythin

Well that is my idea. To have current immense USD denominated assets= loans secured (the bankers) , the need deflation and stable prices. Gold would give them that, but to have any gold standard, as past proves, you have to be able to control gold black market either by power of CB and bank  reserves, or some sheer policing, or both.

But to start any gold standard e.g. for USD ( and that of course would keep it as reserve currency) the population of the whole world needs to be fleeced so that CBs totally hold about 80% of gold above ground, of which the FED would need above 50% of total gold.

So one way is to drive the price of gold as high as possible while keeping inflation low and without destroying USG treasury based monetary system- a brinkmanship, but a controlled and planned one- bring as much gold as possible into open market - as USD keeps value vs. goods many people will sell (debtors mostly) as price will be high relative to debt and daily needs- then announce/exercise event ( like default on FED, may be austerity) that will REDUCE the monetary supply in USD, causing a shock crash in gold prices and panic selling, buy as much with digital USD as possible using the bank reserves being accumulated, then swap them to the reserve side of FED at some new price - new USD, may be.

The price will be higher than today, in todays USD, but I am not sure owning gold will be legal in many countries that will be forced to follow ( or already have in plans) the backing of USD by gold by either adopting the USD or building their own gold reserves. E.g. Canada may adopt the USD, even if it has gold mining, but no reserves. They will be either forced or get a deal from the USA which will be impossible to decline.

The release of bank reserves to buy gold even after price crash will be inflationary, and that part of the plan I have not figured out in more detail how that will be handled, as there will be quite a few old USD flooding the market- from bank reserves into people cash assets. But I am sure that reading monetary history will show there are many ways that has been tried in the past to deal with such spikes in inflation if the cause is known.

Basically at that moment the hidden inflation that is accumulated in the decrease of trust in USD ( reflected in gold price) will be released (in controlled way) into CPI. Somehow they have to take care of it before it does too much damage. Perhaps few years with 10% inflation in the USA etc  is OK given the bigger purpose of the scenario.

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Made silver and gold forks on

Made silver and gold forks on long term log charts (the idea is the same-median but for exponentially growing price). Put in parallel lines. Looks quite clear-the support line has been hit twice now , price  has to continue moving up to median for silver:

Gold:

Just to keep track on a long term perspective. It has not been damaged, the downside is much less than in 2008. 

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Original charts?

Ivars, I was just wondering when you might go back and update the original charts that you began this forum with.  Or, provide your assessment of whether those charts have been invalidated with the last 6 months action, or just delayed.  Thank you.

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GSR chart with fork for reference

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@Gold Buffalo-my initial charts

I think they have been obviously delayed as many more predictions - and mine was one of the most conservative time wise. 

As to shapes, I believe they will play out with silver front running the gold. There will be new medium term ( 1 year) bubbles in both, which will then move into the last bubble before reset-price crash from around 10 000 USD for gold. In 2016- 2017 still, but again, things may be delayed, and as soon as I will get the feeling of how much longer I will adjust this number.

As to when I have no better idea that it most happen when this correction is over, which means somewhere after June July August given both the continuation triangle that has to converge at the same time USA debt and budget negotiations needs to be finalized under current timetables set by House. 

As to redrawing the charts to fit some of these new scenarios - I have no better idea than to just move them (delay) on the time axis so far. I also have not investigated them in detail as current price action takes most of my time due to the fact I have started trading. For long term, I would now stick to the Log charts above- they show both the potential bubble tops and crash bottoms within the forks drawn. Direction-up. As to timing - look above , first real chance Summer 2013. 1 year later than I predicted in original charts. 

I hope this serves as some kind of an answer. 

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Silver-short term fork for reference

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Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation.

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