I liked these ideas so saved here for future development:

May be against short term realities a bit, but as far as I know Germans and also their history suggests that their aim to control Europe fiscally (with some minor allies ) is the real one and whatever they do that governing strategic target remains valid.

That also ensures that UK will be seeking to distance from Europe and mover into USA fiscal /financial arms as Japan has already clearly done.

The raising conflict rhetoric between Japan and China actually favors USD as reserve currency as it adds value to USA protection of Japan (the military asset behind USD )  and stability ( at the same time enciting Japan to get more aggressive) . Japan has already announced payment for this in term of increasing USA bond purchases and aid loans to developing world repayable in USD. Its clear as water that the destabilization of the region  is accepted or even originates from the USA.

Instability in other regions does not require enough utilization of the military assets backing USD as reserve currency, as war on terror has shown. Spending 2001-2012 has not increased the value of that as all as terrorism is not perceived as strong enough threat.

I suggest that Britains confrontational stance with Europe ( not military though) also helps USD as reserve currency, and we will see further escalation of that as well.

This is how I approximately see exponential top and bottom lines developing on a linear chart. To project the RED lines which would mark the next move up in silver in quite wide range ( volatility, bubbles) , one have to take the slope of chart in USD/year and calculate the value in e.g January 1st of 2014 for top RED line ( bottom is around 45-46) would be about 100 which would be a bubble value. The rest of the range is possible, with average 72 USD/oz. As one can see, the price can be in between, but also at the top line of the current range - a bubble- or bottom-normal growth before bubble or lows after a correction. There is no way to compress silver volatility much as prices increase - so in % it reduces somewhat, but in absolute numbers increases enormously.

The first expansion starts around 4-4,5 USD and goes to 20- approx 4,5-5 times, than falls to 10- 2 times, then moves to 49 - 4,9 times increase, then drops to 26 - almost 2 times drop. So the next top line more correctly will be around 26* 4,5= 117, the next bottom in the correction AFTER the next top- around 57. That is I think realistic trading range for next 3 years, as long a USG debt continues to grow exponentially and undermine trust in USG bond based international fiat monetary system.

The first cycle was 6 years long (bottom line) , second- approx 4 years, 3rd will be around 2,6 years- they get shorter due to the exp rise of price- so the next breakout on bottom line could happen around second half of 2015 - so the bubble will most likely happen in early to mid 2014. Start in July -August 2013 and build up till Feb- May 2014. Then break like a rocket- but not below 57 USD/oz. With oscillations after that (above 57 below 100)  till H2 2015. Then next move up- the one that could be the last before exit 1.

Are reaction to these strengths that keep USG Treasury based   international monetary system afloat and these need to be increased in their monetized value in an overall maximizing way as some of them By executing might weaken the others.

These are all areas for strategic planning and action to exert pressure to keep USD as reserve currency. These reasons need to be monetized in terms of its asset value- assets that back USD as reserve currency- to see where the divergence of the value of these assets with the USG debt can be narrowed.

The other option is to reduce USG debt, which I strongly suppose will also be used by default on FED when enough big part of total debt obligations will be FED owned. Or prudent fiscal policy. Or propaganda in that direction, but successful.

Well, depends on time scale, but the death of USD is by no means given and of course in terms of accelerating or delaying a parabolic process ( actually, right now it has been returned to exponential, which is slower) there is allways possibility for new delays and giving world time to adjust to the new gold price- as it has over the last 2,5 years. That calms things down.

That is what I try to say- too fast appreciation of gold= fast loss of trust in the USD based international monetary system- will be checked time by time by various methods powers still have. Not only manipulation, much more strategic including geopolitical and military efforts. Hence 114 might be OK, but 266 , if its is eventually reached , will definitely not happen in 2014 or even 2015. Perhaps 2017. Perhaps not.

One has to understand that the USD is not a pure fiat, there are assets backing it, and its both USA denominated fiscal assets measured in hundreds of trillions ( DEBT=someones ASSET) which no CREDITOR including China wants to see depreciating too fast as it will collapse its value so they will prop it UP or at least be neutral ( Japan will do the propping up by buying Treasuries together with FED), and USA military power that has been undervalued do to lack of tensions in the world( compared to the USA-Soviet Union standoff). Tensions are not so hard to create.

Third effort may be a default of USG on FED with FED acceptance, of course. That would reduce USG debt sharply, causing a similar decrease , perhaps short term (few years) in gold silver prices from the level they will be before that event.

Parabolic process is not parabolic before the last pullback, or inning, as you say, and that last inning even looking at USG debt curve has not yet arrived. There is at least one more , if not 2 retractions /sideways periods (innings) in gold prices coming. That is simple math of log periodic oscillations on top of parabolic ascent is an approximation. Parabolic process do not show the innings on the way, log-periodic shows them and follows thus delayed parabolic process.

Hence the silver price appreciation will be stretched out in time more than you suggest, at least by a factor of 2. And so will danger to the collapse of the USD.  In the end, there is alwayss a possibility to fix USD to gold after that, at higher price ( I think around 4000 USD) , the only problem for the USA is to get at least 50%-60% of the world gold reserves under its control. I think there is a strategy for that, lest see if we see any signs of that being played out. So far it looks only Asians are buying gold, but that is easy as they have money. The USA and FED has to play it much more cleverly and if needed forcefully. Historic precedents exist, and new ideas may also appear. Propaganda is one of the tools that may force population to sell GOLD at 10 000 USD back to banks who will pay with printed money, move it to their reserve side, put in FED as their reserves ( FED liabaility) . Then FED will switch ( buy) the gold from banks with new USDs for some price it seems fit, and move the gold to ITS asset side.

Mission accomplished, gold backed USD in place. The only problem is to engineer 50-60% of gold above ground to sit in the USA reserves, so to extract it from population and other countries which are running debt problems. I think that can be solved.

There might be a flash of inflation as old USD for gold flood the market in the end , but that can be quickly checked by announcement of new gold backed USD and some low exchange rate between the old and new USD, while telling the population it could never happen and forcing them to keep the old USD e.g. in bank accounts, then announcing bank holiday so there is no spending etc. I am still thinking of this scenario.

I always wonder why people think CREDITORS will so easily give up their most valued asset - loans denominated in the USD, hundreds of trillions of wealth ( 50 trillion in the USA alone). They will do ANYTHING to protect their value, and they have means to do it.

I start to love the forks. Like this one of GSR- hit the median yesterday straight and bounced back:

Well that is my idea. To have current immense USD denominated assets= loans secured (the bankers) , the need deflation and stable prices. Gold would give them that, but to have any gold standard, as past proves, you have to be able to control gold black market either by power of CB and bank  reserves, or some sheer policing, or both.

But to start any gold standard e.g. for USD ( and that of course would keep it as reserve currency) the population of the whole world needs to be fleeced so that CBs totally hold about 80% of gold above ground, of which the FED would need above 50% of total gold.

So one way is to drive the price of gold as high as possible while keeping inflation low and without destroying USG treasury based monetary system- a brinkmanship, but a controlled and planned one- bring as much gold as possible into open market - as USD keeps value vs. goods many people will sell (debtors mostly) as price will be high relative to debt and daily needs- then announce/exercise event ( like default on FED, may be austerity) that will REDUCE the monetary supply in USD, causing a shock crash in gold prices and panic selling, buy as much with digital USD as possible using the bank reserves being accumulated, then swap them to the reserve side of FED at some new price - new USD, may be.

The price will be higher than today, in todays USD, but I am not sure owning gold will be legal in many countries that will be forced to follow ( or already have in plans) the backing of USD by gold by either adopting the USD or building their own gold reserves. E.g. Canada may adopt the USD, even if it has gold mining, but no reserves. They will be either forced or get a deal from the USA which will be impossible to decline.

The release of bank reserves to buy gold even after price crash will be inflationary, and that part of the plan I have not figured out in more detail how that will be handled, as there will be quite a few old USD flooding the market- from bank reserves into people cash assets. But I am sure that reading monetary history will show there are many ways that has been tried in the past to deal with such spikes in inflation if the cause is known.

Basically at that moment the hidden inflation that is accumulated in the decrease of trust in USD ( reflected in gold price) will be released (in controlled way) into CPI. Somehow they have to take care of it before it does too much damage. Perhaps few years with 10% inflation in the USA etc  is OK given the bigger purpose of the scenario.

I think they have been obviously delayed as many more predictions - and mine was one of the most conservative time wise. 

As to shapes, I believe they will play out with silver front running the gold. There will be new medium term ( 1 year) bubbles in both, which will then move into the last bubble before reset-price crash from around 10 000 USD for gold. In 2016- 2017 still, but again, things may be delayed, and as soon as I will get the feeling of how much longer I will adjust this number.

As to when I have no better idea that it most happen when this correction is over, which means somewhere after June July August given both the continuation triangle that has to converge at the same time USA debt and budget negotiations needs to be finalized under current timetables set by House. 

As to redrawing the charts to fit some of these new scenarios - I have no better idea than to just move them (delay) on the time axis so far. I also have not investigated them in detail as current price action takes most of my time due to the fact I have started trading. For long term, I would now stick to the Log charts above- they show both the potential bubble tops and crash bottoms within the forks drawn. Direction-up. As to timing - look above , first real chance Summer 2013. 1 year later than I predicted in original charts. 

I hope this serves as some kind of an answer.