Pailin's Trading Corner

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JustAnotherLurker
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@RTabit

Do you post all your charts on Main, or just the ones that go up?

redwood
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Ok. 1 down, 2 to go: Jobs

Ok. 1 down, 2 to go:

Jobs Report February 01, 2013            -- 8:30 am

Retail Sales February 13, 2013              --8:30 am

8:30 AM: Employment Report for January. The consensus is for an increase of 155,000 non-farm payroll jobs in January; there were also 155,000 jobs added in December. 

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decrease to 7.7% in January.

                                                          ***************************************************
Jobs Report Friday should be mildly market friendly.  Today's FOMC, devoid of meaning, will be a vague distant memory by Friday.
rtabit
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JustAnotherLurker wrote: Do

JustAnotherLurker wrote:

Do you post all your charts on Main, or just the ones that go up?

I only post gold/silver related charts on main, some member requested it a while ago.  I think by go up you mean go up in price, I post all charts there, just copy paste whatever I put here, no one would listen to me on main when I was telling them 34.50 area was showing strong signals of top on every chart I had in early December, it was party time over there.  My SI 240 chart today was down trending fork obviously hitting resistance, I just didn't mention it because I was talking about something else and wasn't good entry anyways because stop would be to large.  Resistance held, now we have better stop, if we hit resistance again, currently 32.26 area, I'll post if I'm paying attention/trading, that is next SI entry I am watching.

redwood
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"The consensus is for the

"The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decrease to 7.7% in January."

From above post.  Does this mean dear Benny will begin to fade out QE, since unemployment is starting to decrease???  A few more of these reported decreases and the market will get very nervous.  Benny is targeting a unemployment rate of 6.5% right?

JustAnotherLurker
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Er... RW tomorrow is the 31st!

Initial Jobless Claims 08:30 EST

You've got friday nailed though.wink

EDIT:

Expected 350k

Previous 330k

...so room for some shenanigans there.

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Small point JAL, but

Small point JAL, but unemployment rate is different from jobless claims.  I believe claims is only one component of the employment rate.  But tomorrow we will have more fun anyway with all these squiggly lines (numbers) that represent something, real or not. :)

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January 30, 2013 SPY : Long

January 30, 2013

SPY : Long term expectation

SPYLL

Silverman
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Daily stochastic pointing up sharply.

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The Daily Report From 01.29.2013

Capt. Willard
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Hey PTC

There's the lighting out of the clouds.

I wish to raise a personal issue. How can I best transition from getting a good sense of price movements to devise a trading plan to action. Oftentimes I have a sense or gut feeling about what's going to happen, but do not trust myself in actually risking money on these grounds alone.

Is there a good resource I could read up in terms of money management and position sizing, you could dish out?

I've been watching price action on a daily basis for 4 years now, but continually fail at putting it all together and make it lift off profit wise. Reluctant to risk larger sums, I think my current "scarcity mindset" money wise isn't allowing the gambler in me to waste capital. What do you think?

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@Willard, The most thorough

@Willard,

The most thorough stuff is from Van Tharp, IMO.  Try "Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom"--it's not easy, or happy clappy, but it's all in there, and will answer specifically the questions you raise, as well as many, many others.  Go get 'em!

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Beer - Not for breakfast this morning

STZ halted four times so far on BUD news.

US challenges Anheuser-Busch's purchase of Grupo Modelo       01/31 10:41 AM

WASHINGTON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - The U.S. Justice Department has filed a lawsuit seeking to stop Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA from buying the half of Mexican brewer Grupo Modelo that it does not already own.
The department said that the $20.1 billion deal would lessen competition in the U.S. beer market.
"If ABI fully owned and controlled Modelo, ABI would be able to increase beer prices to American consumers. This lawsuit seeks to prevent ABI from eliminating Modelo as an important competitive force in the beer industry," Bill Baer, assistant attorney general in charge of the Department of Justice's Antitrust Division, said in an emailed statement. (Reporting By Diane Bartz; editing by Ros Krasny)

JustAnotherLurker
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I posted this link before

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/files/turtlerules.pdf

It's a breakout trade method but the money management principles and highlighted importance of consistency makes it well worth the read, it is also very short (and free).

Basic money management is just don't risk more than 1/2% of your account - yeah...

You should probably learn to momo, search "momo ema" and you'll find some methods.

The problem with asking about mechanical trading systems is everyone's gonna be a bit coy about telling you (publicly at least) what their using, for obvioius reasons.

That said if any nice momo's want to PM us some methods that would be great!

Picking bottoms is a no-no, even though its fun, just ask granny.

I find a real easy way to lose money is the false economy of tight stops; especially when you only plan on entering once, get stopped, and enter again on a different signal and get stopped again, after which the market rises and had you (I) entered once with twice the stop value you'd be fine (ditto entering three times), just like I did the other day.

Stop placement using Average True Range is what you're meant to do.

Mechanical systems obviously force you to be consistent however I'm not quite sure how big a timeframe they need to be on to avoid being borg food.

I think the main reason (other than it being more intelectually stimulating - not a good reason) that forks, tridents, more exotic fibs, E waves etc. are becoming more prevalent is because they're not algorithmic so the hunter-killer terminator algos (love that one SW!) can't find you so easily, but WTFDIK!

Maybe a trial with Rick Ackerman or RTabit's hero at TTM would be a good idea I've been in webinars with with both and their methods were interesting but you need decent (expensive) charting software. I think SW's followed Ackerman in the past, not sure what he thinks though.

I would really welcome digging more into the EMA subject that BH started the yesterday, especially since gold closed just below the 200 yesterday.

EDIT:

I forgot to say that Ackerman add whatshisname (Paul?) use really tight stops - big plus!

EDIT2:

Yeah... that should be "1-2% of your account" -sorry distracted.

JustAnotherLurker
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Is it really all there?

I bought that a while ago on your recomendation (THANKS!!!) but I kinda maybe didn't finish it... better go get that awf the shelf.

MisesFan
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Report from your local medical....

marijuana office........MJNA is running like a poorly rolled spliff.

HappyNow
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Capt. Willard

Sorry there is no one answer.  Or we would all be doing it.

Today's thought is that in order for you to make a profitable trade someone else must make a loss.  For the past year I have been in a profit position overall.   Lately I have been thinking that I am not winning against the large market makers so I am probably making my profit at the expense of smaller players who are likely less experienced.   When I trade I try to ignore what the market makers want  or don't want and think about what the smaller players might be reading or thinking about or waiting for a signal and buying too late or shorting too late etc.

I often sell too soon and I often buy too soon (or miss the buy by putting my offer too low) so I don't time the peaks but this is profitable for me and that is what counts.

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Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.

SIlverbee
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Hat tip check

Is there not an easier way to check for hat tip total. Could it not be displayed in the main street?

JustAnotherLurker
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Selling too soon

There's a really interesting bit about that in the above linked book.

I should also have said it's more like remeniscences than elder or Van T, it's the story of the turtles, by a turtle.

pailin
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Hope nobody got burned

Hope nobody got burned chasing momentum yesterday...

Even though I'm :) I'm serious too, hate it when the Corner gets hurt playin' patsy to JPM and GS.

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I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild

Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell

JustAnotherLurker
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@Pailin

I think/hope we're all far to cynical by now to let that happen.

Are you just sitting on your longs playing seasonals?

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