Another Pre-Fedline Post

As we once again await the Fedlines later today, here are some charts for our consideration.

First of all, it's great to see the metals rallying, especially after all the wailing and grinding of teeth over the weekend. On a personal note, it's always somewhat gratifying, too, when "Mr. Wrong 99% of The Time" actually gets one right. I hope that, by following along closely, you've had your stress limited.

What kills me today is the shock and surprise at the GDP numbers. Everyone (myself included) was saying in November and December that Q4 GDP would be down or negative due in large part to Hurricane Sandy. You simply don't slide a storm like that into NJ and NY and not see an economic impact. But, again, all of this was forgotten when The Forces of Darkness picked up the "6.5% inflation target" ball and ran with it back after the last FOMC meeting on 12/12. Whatever. I know it's hard to keep track of all this stuff...which is why I'm always begging you to simply btfd and keep stacking. The day-to-day noise can make you crazy and cause you to doubt yourself. Know that, long-term, physical gold and silver are your only solution and your only protection.

Regarding the Q4 GDP, here's the only news story you need to read and, from the article, the only chart you need to see. (Anyone got any bananas?) http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-30/us-ends-2012-1038-debt-gdp

The resultant rallies in the metals have carried gold to near its usual +1% cap and silver has not only breached $31.60, it has also now moved through its 50-day MA near $31.90. Very nice. Very nice, indeed. Now, can we just get a further spark to really get some short-covering going? Something from the Fedlines or the BLSBS? We'll see. For now in gold, keep an eye on significant chart and psychological resistance at/near 1700 as well as the Apr13 50-day near $1691. IF WE CAN GET A POP, the next challenge will be the 100-day MA, near 1720.

Silver is cooking, too, and there is plenty to be excited about. But, first, silver must still pass The Big Test. Can it burst higher, taking out last week's highs, chart resistance and its 100-day MA...all between $32.50 and $32.75? IF IT DOES, we can all begin to get excited. Until then...well, just try not to get too emotional about it.

That's all for now. Look for another thread later today, after the Fedlines.

TF

p.s. I see that quite a few of you bought some of Chris Duane's latest release yesterday. Thank you! It's for a good cause, it's a great investment AND this site makes a small commishkey with each purchase. Their almost to 20,000 ounces sold. Let's see if we can get 'em there. Click the link below and buy a few!

https://www.silverbulletsilvershield.com/freedom-girl-one-ounce-medallion.html?___store=silverbulletsilvershield_en&acc=b53b3a3d6ab90ce0268229151c9bde11

3:00 PM EST UPDATE:

Rather than start a new post, I thought I'd just update this one. Besides, since there wasn't a rigged selloff post-Fedlines, all of the charts are still relevant.

The Bernank said nothing new and mainly just reiterated all that was said back in December. The only new item was a stated recognition that "economic activity had paused in recent months". I wonder how all those who foolishly cling to the belief that QE is related to economic activity will try to spin that one?

Squeaky (Bill Gross) said two interesting things during the CNBS coveage:

  1. That Fed policy has "distorted prices in all asset categories".
  2. That he agrees with The Fed that unemployment targets will not be reached until 2015, at the earliest.

And point #2 is the one that so infuriates me. You see, I watched The Bernank's press conference, post the Fedlines back in December. He clearly stated that the 6.5% unemployment number was only being given for "context" and "transparency" and that, since The Fed doesn't see unemployment dropping to 6.5% until 2015, they're essentially saying the same things as always. BUT, NO!! All the naysayers, boobs and monkeys picked it up and ran as if QE will be ending as soon as this autumn! What a freaking joke!! Again, these types of FACTS often get lost in all the day-to-day angst and stress over price swings. Just keep buying the freaking dip and all will be well.

Just a few other things. On page 3 of this thread I posted some charts of an ugly-looking Pig. It is rolling over badly and looks like it may soon violate critical support near 79. Let's remember to watch this closely over the next few days and weeks.

I also posted a chart of Sylvia Platinum. It is rallying back from another successful hold of 1660 support and looks poised to take another (#8) stab at $1700. I keep watching this because a successful breach of 1700 and rally beyond will, no doubt, add some spillover strength to gold and silver.

The 10-year is declining again today with yields reaching 2.03% right before the Fedlines were released. I received this chart by email earlier today and I liked it a lot. It's a chart of the price of gold divided by the price of the 10-year note. Pretty interesting.

Speaking of interesting charts...Paul Coghlan passed along a video showing how successfully his "forks" had helped position traders for the huge rally this morning. Again, I want to re-emphasize...If you're attempting to trade gold and silver without their assistance, you're crazy. I set this up for you for a reason and too few of you are taking advantage of it. Just look at Andy's numbers in the adbox on the right side of he page. And that's just trading one contract! Please don't waste any more of your hard-earned fiat attempting to out-fox the foxes. Join The Army. Survive and prosper. http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/5188

And I need to comment on the OI numbers. Even with the impending expiration/FND of the Feb13 contract, the gold OI numbers are astonishing. While gold was rallying $8 yesterday, the total OI declined by over 8000 contracts to 430,712. This is down an amazing 30,000+ in over a week! That level is the second-lowest for 2013, coming in just above the 428,747 seen on 1/4/13, just after the brutal 1/3-1/4 beatdown. With price $40 higher, that's a lot of paper being shifted from weak to strong hands.

Now get a load of this...The CoT survey was at the close yesterday. For the reporting week, gold fell $32 and its OI fell by 30,500 contracts. WOW! But check out silver. For the week, price fell by exactly $1 but the total silver OI rose by 6,000! Talk about fuel for a short squeeze! Needless to say, this week's CoT, once it's finally released on Friday, is going to be interesting. Very interesting, indeed.

OK, that's it for today. As I close, I see that The Monkeys and algos have decided to hit the metals on The Globex anyway, regardless of the Fedlines. Gold has dropped over $5 while I've typed! Whatever. Reports have it that today was London's strongest physical demand day yet for 2013. Realization that QE really is to infinity will only serve to drive demand even higher. Once again, BTFD!

TF

310 Comments

Silverman's picture

Daily stochastic pointing up sharply.

Libertybella's picture

@ Karankawa - Houston sky noises

Thanks Karankawa

Let me know please if they heard it or know anyone that did. I would like confirmation from others that may have heard it. 

The video that Dr. Jerome posted is most like the sounds I heard.  I have been researching the phenomenon on the internet for the past two hours and am finding some interesting stuff...even found an article supposedly written over 100 years ago about metallic sky noises heard in yellowstone...also some speculation on the net that the sounds could be coming from the ionosphere..some kind of natural phenomenon.

I really don't want to ever hear it again..it was very creepy....

Karankawa's picture

LibertyBella

Duly noted and this thread has been bookmarked.  Thanks for sharing your observations.

I'm a bit further Southwest than you.

Karankawa

JY896's picture

Lockheed C-5 Galaxy vs. disconcerting sound over Houston

Plenty of videos on YouTube, of takeoff/flyover/landing. Have no idea if this is the cause, but SOUNDS similar to what you are describing.

A few months back DPH described a monumentally large, abnormally low-flying aircraft making the rounds in his neighborhood --I think the same plane was suggested by a few people at the time:

Playlist of 55 vids here.

Karankawa's picture

LibertyBella

I'm sure I could look back, and will if you aren't still here.  But can you tell me again what part of Houston you heard this noise?

It's a big place and I know people from Conroe to Galveston.

Libertybella's picture

@ Karankawa

I live in Kingwood/Humble area.

The more I think about it...I dont' think it could have been a C-5 ..the sound was sustained (did not fade in and fade out) and had a low metallic sounding quality to it...lower than the C-5 recordings I have listened to..

Karankawa's picture

And doesn't Roark live near Galveston?

Like the Conroe shooting, the MSM can't cover stuff up anymore.  This was sent to me earlier today.

This happened not far from Conroe....while reading this, I was thinking thank God for the gun!,,,but also,,thank God for the DOG! That was the distraction
she needed....guess for me, I would have to come up with another kind of distraction...what I do not know.
XXXX
 
Mudsharkbytes's picture

Weird Sky Sounds

I have a pretty good ear for musical pitches and intervals, and to me, those notes in Dr. Jerome's video sounded like they were tuned, i.e., they were tempered as if they were part of an equal tempered scale played on a keyboard.

Naturally occuring pitched noises, like tires squealing or tea kettles whistling or wind or jets flying overhead or what have you, ordinarily slide "between the keys" so to speak.  I wasn't hearing any of that in the sounds from the video.

Not only that, the tones sounded VERY much like those some of my own software synthesizers produce.

To my way of thinking, purely from having listened to the videos, is they're man made by somebody at a keyboard somewhere, but how they get the sound to propagate over long distances, or for what reason, I can't begin to guess.

Maybe tonights thread should be renamed TF Coast to Coast.

Boswell's picture

Japan gold rush amid weakening yen

Japan gold rush amid weakening yen

People are lining up to SELL their gold!??? 

http://english.cntv.cn/program/bizasia/20130131/102351.shtml

With Video...

"With the yen continuing to spiral downwards, gold is becoming a quick favorite in terms of investment options with gold prices in Japan hitting a 32 year high. That’s despite international gold prices going in the opposite direction trending lower since the beginning of this year.

With the Japanese currency weakening by 14 percent against the US dollar since last September, gold prices in Japan have soared over nearly 20 percent from the average level in December until now, alone bucking the trend seen in the global bullion market."

Magpie's picture

random comments

LibertyBella,

Geographically speaking, this is not too far away from you.  No one knows the true extent of the problem.

http://enenews.com/?s=sinkhole

GL,

Well said......I would happily forego Walmart for the opportunity to spend the rest of my days on a Chilean beach.  And if I could find an old koa surfboard like the one I had when I was a kid, well, that would be pure bliss.

Katie Rose,

We went to Dominica.  Beautiful tropical rainforests.  Once you're outside Roseau or Portsmouth you're in a third world country.......shacks, women carrying baskets on their heads, mud/dirt roads, and some very scary-looking critters running around.  And we heard more people speaking Creole and French than English.   IMO, you dodged the bullet.  yes  Visiting once was enough.

ivars's picture

Yesterdays GSR moved back

Yesterdays GSR moved back again in line with price increases after weak first estimate of the USA Q4 GDP. FED did not seem to have much impact. Strangely enough, as usual, weak USA results end up with more people getting attracted to USD for safety, so the impact on USDx is not so lasting as expected as other parts of the world also report weak economic data for the end of 2012.

The fork looks a bit constrained by an upgoing support line, otherwise it should move more in direction of lower support today.

If it does not reach it, there will be a gap, which could mean a reversal in silver price down again. A lot depends on NFP on Friday.

Strange, but I can not apply Livermore's quote: You have to be fearful when in hope, and hopeful when in fear. Or something like that.

philipat's picture

Houston

In a Democratic State, or even a Constitutional Republic, the military has no place conducting any type of exercises in Urban areas. In fact, anywhere on domestic soil other than military bases.

That said, there are crowd control devices "To protect you", Again, that can literally blind you and deafen you. It's easier to protect you when you are rolling around on the floor in agony either, or both, blinded and/or deaf.

dnlward's picture

Happy good morning!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-30/elliotts-paul-singer-how-money-created-and-how-it-dies

When the rejection of long-term bonds and paper money starts at some unpredictable future time, it may be fast and difficult to contain or reverse. History is replete with examples of societies whose downfalls were related to or caused by the destruction of money. The end of this phase of global financial history will likely erupt suddenly. It will take almost everyone by surprise, and then it may grind a great deal of capital and societal cohesion into dust and pain. We wish more global leaders understood the value of sound economic policy, the necessity of sound money, and the difference between governmental actions that enable growth and economic stability and those that risk abject ruin. Unfortunately, it appears that few leaders do.

dnlward's picture

mod delete my double post please? {eom}

[eom]

ClinkinKY's picture

Because he likes them more than us?

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/12/11/lawmakers-question-gift-20-f-16s-to-morsi-egypt/

muslim_brotherhood_gets_F16_americans_lo

The $213 million order, paid for by US taxpayers, will provide the Egyptian air force with newer and improved resources. Its fleet of current fighter jets are older versions of the F-16s. I hope we at least get a "Thank You" note:)

Beastly Stack's picture

Last day

Of the month and the day before the Unemployment #http://tradermartinstake.com/

silver66's picture

Moring post

Sitting at the computer having a nice cup of Joe. Surfing the web catching up on overnite news and posts at my favorite sites.

Santa had an interesting post

http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/01/31/the-euro-is-far-from-finished/

He sure sounds like Another to me in his thinking these days

Hope everyone has a good day, I have to go to the parking lot known as Toronto today (boo)

Silver66

Keep Stackin My Friends

koan's picture

Thought provoking

In case you haven't seen it - lifted from comments over at Harvey's blog which suffers badly from shills:

http://consciouslifenews.com/paid-internet-shill-shadowy-groups-manipulate-internet-opinion-debate/1147073/

Whether this particular account is true or not doesn't matter I suppose but is a good reminder to keep awareness of what you feel/think when reading comments/engaging in the discussion.

Little doubt this site suffers from it too, I don't pay too close attention but the timings and proximity to each other of contributions by certain posters (at least 3 in number) has tripped something in the pattern recognition part of the brain -​ quite subtle, not the obvious trolls but always a particular sentiment.

ag1969's picture

FARAGE!!!

opticsguy's picture

These people GTFO

kept moving into Siberia to escape Stalin.  Ended up in the middle of nowhere with a few pans and a loom and some seeds.  They ended up making almost everything out of Birch bark, even cooking pans.  With nothing to hunt with except hemp rope, they lived for 40 years on berries, potatoes, and what grain they could grow in 6 weeks of summer.  They even raised two kids who had never seen another human until they were in their 20's

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karp_Lykov

good story at the Smithsonian web site, but it took forever to load.

WRT the exercises...my theory.  They are getting the C-5s and other transport planes some practice at landing on close-in airfields to the major cities, and probably to acclimate the populace to the sounds.  The army/Air Force is preparing to move massive amounts of food or materiel into an urban environment.  They can practice approaches to airports all day long at the military bases, so there must be a psy-ops component to this.

Turd Ferguson's picture

That $4, straight down drop

MODERATOR

That $4, straight down drop on the pre-open Comex is not usually a good sign. 

No need for alarm. Just be cautious.

Turd Ferguson's picture

update

MODERATOR

News Headline Summary

Syria and Iran have threatened to retaliate against Israel for the air raid near Damascus, according to Associated Press

Print

Groaner's picture

At least they are consistant

NFP.s tomorrow. the Monkeys cant change the game plan one bit.

I would say after Friday we rock and roll.

ClinkinKY's picture

Robert Menendez (Part 3)

What a POS.

Melgen-Menendez.jpg
 
Underage prostitute enabler and the "Honorable" Senator from Jersey who just chaired the Benghazi hearing.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Menendez admits frequent Dominican travel, reimburses FBI-raided donor $58,500 for private jet flights

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2013/01/31/menendez-admits-frequent-dominican-travel-reimburses-fbi-raided-donor-58500-for-private-jet-flights/#ixzz2JYj1V2gB

Menendez rushes to pay private-jet tab after FBI raid

Read more: http://hotair.com/archives/2013/01/31/menendez-rushes-to-pay-private-jet-tab-after-fbi-raid/#comments

Harald's picture

Euro

Euro?  Maybe.  WTFDIK.  The Euro countries are purported to have a lot of gold and the Swiss have pegged the Franc to the Euro and are buying the Euro hand over fist.  The short Euro trade seems too easy and is way overcrowded.   

SIlverbee's picture

The strange sounds

I heard about this same sound on other youtube vids I watched about a year ago. There were possible explanations then but none worked for me.  

SIlverbee's picture

Lots of volitility on opening

Gonna be a wacky one?

Beastly Stack's picture

Show Us Something

Gold & Silver better show us some buying interest here!

http://tradermartinstake.com/

Bill of Rights's picture

Good Turd I hope both

Good Turd I hope both factions blow each other to smithereens and be done with it.

ag1969's picture

Local Police

A police officer from my town just happened to be driving by my house as I put my son on the bus this morning, and I had a very enlightening conversation with him for 15 minutes.  We talked about guns, money, DHS, you name it.  We covered all of the relevant topics in a short time.

1) He is a stacker and totally aware of what is going on with the feds and the dollar and the 85 billion/mo in printing

2)  He is a gun owner and said to me, and I quote, "If they try to take the guns away they are going to start a civil war.  Also, I don't know who is going to show up to take your guns away because I am not doing it, and no one in this town is going to do it."

3) This guy is older and nearing retirement and he explained to me how there is some sort of laws where retired law enforcement can carry a gun anywhere in the country.  The Obama administration is somehow trying to change these laws and limit the kind of guns they can carry.  He and many former cops he knows are totally up in arms over the power grab.

4) I point blank asked him when TSHTF which side are you going to be on?  Without hesitation he said he would be on the side of the people and would not support a government acting outside of the rule of law.

I live in a small town and have had many conversations with this guy because whenever I am out working and he drives by he stops for a chat.  I am very encouraged to hear him say that his opinion is that most police officers, and certainly the older ones, think the same way that he does.

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