Items From The Mailbag

Today seems like a good day to get caught up on a few things.

Whew! Option expiration for the Feb13 gold contract is finally behind us and prices have begun to recover. I bet ya just can't wait for Monday, Feb 25 when the Mar13 silver options expire. Mark your calendars!

Until then, we should see a general rally. The next three weeks will likely be positive as the metals regain the ground lost late last week, and then some. ("Is that the footlong? And then some!")

For now, let's just get our feet under us and recover. The CoT structure has undoubtedly become considerably more bullish after last week and the metals are primed for a sizeable short squeeze if we can just get a spark. Might that spark come the Fedlines tomorrow ( http://www.bkassetmanagement.com/us-outlook/fomc-preview-why-this-months-meeting-important_3905/) or perhaps the BLSBS on Friday? Hard to say, of course. We'll see.

But I like the possibility of a decent jump in price here. Consider the OI numbers. On Thursday and Friday of last week, while price was falling over $30, the total OI in gold rose by over 2000 contracts and you have to take into consideration that gold OI should have been falling rapidly due to the falling price and expiring Feb13 contract. Instead, it rose. This tells me that a considerable amount of new shorts were added and those shorts are quite vulnerable because they don't have a lot of wiggle room on any rally.

And then there's silver. While price was falling $1.24 over the Thu-Fri trading days, the total OI rose by over 5,400 contracts. Clearly a significant rise in short interest. Additionally, total OI in silver is all the way back up to 149,593. This is the highest level since 11/27/12 and just 6,000 below the high of all 2012. Keep in mind, too, that on 11/27/12 price closed at 34.08. Just as there were some vulnerable longs at $34, there are now some vulnerable shorts at $31.

So, let's see if we can begin to recover here. Gold needs to reclaim $1670 and silver $31.60 before we can get excited so watch those levels closely.

And just a few, other random charts for you to consider. First, here's platinum. Though it was sharply lower yesterday, support near $1660 held again so the party definitely isn't over. Will attempt #8 at surpassing $1700 finally get it done?

Crude keeps inching ever higher. If I was sitting on a profit, though, I'd sure be getting an itchy trigger finger to ring the register. $98-100 has to be pretty significant resistance.

And check out these two losers...The Pig and the 10-yr note. Neither are at a critical moment...yet...but both are moving in that direction. In particular, the 10-year. Demand hasn't waned enough yet that it requires a boost in QE∞ but that day is coming. Maybe by this summer?

OK, finally...to the mailbag. There was a lot of talk around here earlier this month regarding the manufacture and sale of TFMR silver rounds. I am looking into this but, logistically, it's much more difficult to pull off than you might imagine. I'll keep you posted.

Many folks are wondering when The Jackass might make a return appearance on a podcast. We are tentatively set for one later this week. If it happens, I will post it in its usual timeslot of late Friday.

Someone sent me an email which included some very interesting info on the "HSBC acquiring silver" story from last week. It also included this helpful chart.

Here is the news release re. HSBC from KGHM: http://www.kghm.pl/index.dhtml?module=articles&id=4962
At an exchange rate of 3.1 Polish Zloties per USD, the Jan 21, 2013 contract was for ~ USD 539 M
Using a constant exchange rate of 3.1 PLN/USD, contracts between KGHM and HSBC over the past 12 months total USD 1.18 B
Assuming $32/oz silver for the last 12 months, the Jan 21, 2013 contract with HSBC was for ~ 16.9 million oz. of silver and the prior 12 months of sales to HSBC is ~ 36.8 million oz. of silver
In 2011, KGHM produced approximately 41 million oz. of silver - HSBC is purchasing almost all of their silver production.
According to their presentation, KGHM is the world's largest silver producer:

Speaking of nice charts, here's one that shows the varying inventory of the SLV:

And this is an interesting story. The Turdite who alerted me to it has his theory as to why this is important and I think he is correct. However, I'll let you read it and draw your own conclusions. http://profit.ndtv.com/news/economy/article-rbi-may-let-banks-buy-back-gold-in-a-bid-to-curb-demand-317032

Chris Duane has a new medallion out for purchase. They've already sold over 7,000 of them! If you're interested in buying some, please use this link: https://www.silverbulletsilvershield.com/freedom-girl-one-ounce-medallion.html?___store=silverbulletsilvershield_en&acc=b53b3a3d6ab90ce0268229151c9bde11

Finally...and somewhat reluctantly...I'm going to post this link to a segment from Dr. Janda's show last weekend. After a few minutes, the guest turns his attention to an anti-Obama diatribe. Take it for what it's worth and shut it off if you need to. However, the first five minutes or so definitely deserve your attention. Dr. Dave clearly feels this guy is legitimate, so, listen closely. http://www.davejanda.com/audio/JimGarrow012713.mp3

OK, that's it for today. Have a great one!

TF
 

332 Comments

ClinkinKY's picture

"Move along, nothing to see here"

zman's picture

Too many bears on bonds?  It

Too many bears on bonds?  It looks that way, put volume at the 2nd highest level ever!!    Maybe Jim Willie will be correct, one final bond rally to come, bringing the 10 year yield down 1%.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-29/hedging-great-unwind-second-highest-treasury-put-volume-record-hits-tape

Either way, something tell me big trouble may be brewing.

ancientmoney's picture

@Ballyale . . . lifted from your post . .

on previous thread:

"This only leads me to believe that an enormous Criminal Conspiracy between the "Investment" Banksters that can trade on insider information, the Fed, the Treas. the Congress and the President of the U.S. has been going on for a long, long time at the expense of the US people, the productivity of US Manufacturers, and ultimately the Security of the US in terms of meeting its obligations and competing fairly in the Global Marketplace.

The Dep't of Homeland (sounds so Nazi like) Insecurity has purchase enormous amounts of weapons and ammo, because they know that the destruction of the US Econ. due to the EE's raping of the US productive and purchasing power due to unexpected food prices and energy prices will cause RIOTS in the streets. When, I don't know."

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Yes, they are certainly preparing for something big, and they've been at it for awhile.  Lately, though, they seem to be in a hurry as some sloppy incidents have been followed up by power grabs (Sandy Hook then gun control).  Things may be unraveling faster than they thought, and they need to put everything into fast gear.

Yes, DHS has ordered 1.5 billion rounds of ammo, scattered across the country, some delivered to Social Security offices.  Armored fighting vehicles are being delivered to cities across the country.  FEMA camps have been built and currently sit empty.  Curious "lone wolf" shooting incidents have been ramped up, to provide reasons for gun control to be pushed. 

As Garrow said, Obama is seeking generals and admirals who have no qualms ordering the firing on U.S. citizens.  (This would seem to be unconstitutional and treasonous on its face, but WTFDIK?)

Executive orders have been enacted allowing the president:

1.  to be Emperor/Dictator/Czar/Chief/Generalissimo over every asset on Amerikan soil,

2.removal of rights of habeus corpus,

3. Federal takeover of the states' National Guards

4. repeal of Posse Comitatis laws

I can only hope that the collapse happens in such a way that it renders the feds powerless.  If the people who have to carry out the orders to imprison and murder citizens aren't paid (or are paid in worthless currency), then it all breaks down.  They may be too busy protecting their own families, and finding something for them to eat to wage war on their fellow citizens.

If NATO troops are imported to do the dirty work, as some say is coming, most members of the military would resign, go AWOL, and do whatever necessary to get home to protect their own families, I would think.  Hope so, anyway.

Bollocks's picture

Wow, that Freedom Girl silver coin

is fantastic! Me buying.

Bollocks's picture

No Wayyyy...

When trying to buy one of those Freedom Girl silver coins (from one of their EU dealers - they won't ship from the states) I've noticed that the coin is marked at 34.5 Euros, shipping is a ridiculous 60 Euros and Tax is 10.5.

...making a massive 105 Euros - 128 dollars for a SINGLE coin.

F'that!

Me no buying.

achmachat's picture

SBSS

I finally found a European dealer that ships to my little country...

even though the end price is ridiculously high compared to Silver Maples etc. (10€ per round more),  I just had to order a tube of Slave Queens and a tube of Freedom Girl!

It's more for the art-work I guess.

ag1969's picture

Wow Turd

That Dave Janda interview is sobering to say the least.  It brings into stark reality that everyone in America who believes in The Constitution and the rule of law is now an enemy of the state.  And where is the loyal opposition?

I am now bewildered at how so many Americans can sit idly by while our country descends further and further into tyranny and evil.  There is so, so much wrong in our country now, that even a top notch bunch like Turdville cannot cover on a daily basis all of the perfectly obvious erosions of our freedom.

It is a sad day indeed for our once great republic when the litmus test for military officers is whether or not they will fire on their own citizens if they do not comply with having their constitutionally protected freedoms stolen from them in broad daylight.

With all of the respect I have for Turd and everyone here, I don't think any of us have any comprehension about just how bad this thing is going to get.  I have always prided myself on my ability to stay positive and live my life with a smile on my face, even in the face of seemingly insurmountable odds.  I am losing my ability to do this and find myself genuinely scared for my beautiful children.

I still can't wrap my head around such pure evil.  I can't imagine what brings so many to support such evil, dogma really, for if you question the unquestionable, you are a kook.  Something wicked this way comes.  How could we all have allowed this to happen?  So sad.

Groaner's picture

Anyone notice the comex close?

there was a mini sell going on and then right before the close huge buys volume in both gold and especially silver brought them right back up again..

Shorts covering.. we have them nervous!

achmachat's picture

Oi Bollocks!

this one's shipping was less than 10 Euros for my entire order!

http://edelmetalle-all-met.eu/

Libertybella's picture

HIghest Treasury Put Volume - What does this mean for metals??

Hedging The Great Unwind - Second Highest Treasury Put Volume On Record Hits The Tape

 
Tyler Durden's picture

In early June 2007, Treasury futures saw their largest-ever put volume traded (821,978 contracts) and within a few days, Treasury yields had peaked at 5.32% and never looked back. Yesterday, according to CME data, Treasury futures put volume hit 758,020 contracts (second only to that 2007 high) as 74% of the entire options trading volume was in puts (and 88% of 5Y futures options were puts!). With the FOMC tomorrow and everyone seemingly convinced that the 'great rotation' is in place, it would appear the crowded trade is being bearish bonds.

Mickey's picture

anybody notice the 10 year treas is just under 2%

looks like the Fed is going to have to work harder with our money to get rates back to the 1.7-1.8 range.

BTW-the 30 bps increase the last couple of weeks-eventually works out to around 60 Billion a year more interest more than offsetting the tax increase on those rich bastards.

the problems are gaining momentum.

not going to help autos or housing either.

Something must be happening -we will find out what soon. Betcha we do not like it even with our PM saving our arses.

Bollocks's picture

Thanks achmachat

The site's in bloomin' german though. Me no read-y german crying.

For any european turdites wanting to buy it - this is the one to avoid .. http://shop.thesilverhorse.be/

Turd Ferguson's picture

F this

MODERATOR

Let me take care of this nonsense:

ILLEGAL ALIENS SHOULD NOT BE GRANTED AMNESTY. THEY CAME HERE ILLEGALLY, BREAKING THE LAW IN DOING SO. IF THIS CAUSES ME TO LOSE "HISPANIC TURDITES", SO BE IT. DISAGREE WITH  ME IF YOU'D LIKE BUT I WILL NOT PANDER. I STAND UPON PRINCIPLE.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/conservative-hispanic-group-tells-gop-avoid-amnesty-label-173408974--election.html

dingleberry's picture

SBSS.....

No-one will buy at that, shirley. If they say that it includes VAT too, you can bet your jacksy its not UK Vat, that'll have to be added.

Am I being a bit thick or will any of the other US/Can/Aus dealers send to the UK ?

achmachat's picture

bollocks

check your private messages.. i checked the details for you

ClinkinKY's picture

This is one of the reasons why I will support this man...

... in 2016 (If he stays true to his principles). Any "Ron" Paulians agree?

---------------------------------------

Rand Paul Will Propose Ban On Sending F-16s To Egypt

WASHINGTON — Sen. Rand Paul told an off-the-record meeting of conservative donors and powerbrokers Monday that he plans to file a bill that would ban sending F-16 fighter jets to Egypt.

Read more: http://www.buzzfeed.com/rebeccaberg/rand-paul-will-propose-banning-f-16-sales-to-egypt

AlexCojones's picture

TFMR silver rounds - IMHO

Dear Mr Ferguson,

 I think some collectible silver rounds, called "Generics" when I pulled them from the bin at my LCS,  are more desirable than others,  I think making some for the citizens of The Democratic Republic of Liberated Turdistan (TDRLT) might not be a greatest idea, but that is  JMHO.

I wrote this column (LINK BELOW) years ago after meeting personally with Bernard Von Nothaus and buying a few of his rounds to use as awards. Now look what happened... And nope, we never did have a "Second Annual Liberty Internet Award"

The First Annual Liberty Internet Awards | Strike-The-Root: A Journal .

LIBERTY_DOLLAR--SILVER_OZ.JPG

Silverivalist's picture

@ ag1969

"How could we all have allowed this to happen?  So sad".

Divide and conquer, it has always worked in the past and will continue to work against US citizens now. The 2 party system has developed  into a choosing up of sides, MSM misinformation is working like a charm to confuse the masses to the point they can not possibly agree on any two points. There is no chance of organizing in an environment such as this. 

Shock and awe worked overseas and will work in our own back yards. IMO the only chance we have is to break away from the system as we know it. Move away from the over populated cities and become more self sufficient and seek out like minded individuals to set up co-ops with. A sense of community (not facebook) will be very important in the new coming age when we as a species will become free from our shackles to the dollar, and relearn how to enjoy a simpler life that is not consumer driven.

dropout's picture

A Little of This & That

A government that does not trust its honest, law-abiding, taxpaying citizens with the means of self-defense, is not worthy of trust. Laws disarming honest citizens proclaim that the government is the master, not the servant, of the people.

'Freedom Girl' is an absolutely beautiful image. Congratulations.

@CalLawyer There's still plenty of 308 cal, NATO 7.62 ammo about and still fairly cheap. Easy to reload to!

The FAL semi-auto FN is the desired instrument for delivery of said round. With either a 20 round, or if you can find them 30 round mags. Also easy to modify for full auto, with some simple sear re-working. Although the barrel life is drastically shortened using full auto. Rugged, sturdy, reliable and easily maintained. Good choice. Good luck.  

Bollocks's picture

@ag1969

"...and find myself genuinely scared for my beautiful children."

Get some ugly ones then.

Mickey's picture

I agree with the Turd

eom

you break rules and laws there need to be consequences.

I have enough difficulty supporting my family-I do not need to support others unless I specifically want to.

If you come here the first question asked shoud be:

"what are you bringing to the party"

ClinkinKY's picture

"Fuck this"

Si se puede. wink

Groaner's picture

We are green today, forgot that color existed.

Next up the Bernank., then the good old jobs report.. last smack down, then Away we go....

Maybe someone could explain why the stock market is up?? up on what??? air??

Watcher's picture

Jim Willie

http://www.trunews.com/listen_now.htm

Friday January 25, 2013

Guest: Financial newsletter publisher Jim Willie

Topic: Rick and Jim discuss the implosion of the Western banking system, Chinese gold-based world trade notes, a gold-back global currency, Nazi passports, and a host of other fascinating subjects.

www.goldenjackass.com

Play Now (fast) M3U Download MP3
Mickey's picture

interest rates and cash flow deficit

much has been made of the cash flow deficit being cut to about 1.2 Trillion. (all bs anyway)

Now--if not for lower rates it wouldbe far worse. The average rate of the 16.7 Trillion funded debt  is low 2's  with the recent rollovers. If at the old 4% the extra say 1.5% on call it 17 tril would be 300 bil a year more. So the wink wink deficit is really 1.5 cash flow deficit or the 7 tril GAAP  loss that john williams speaks of.

Now--in 2013, the obamacare taxes jump in but the benefits do not really start appearing till next year. So 2013 is going to be an aberration --we should be thrilled the cash flow deficit will only be in the 1.2 trill range cause from now on, its gonna be much higher.

Got real gold and silver?  Its gonna get real obvious from here on out. Even a cave man will be able to see it, you know, like we have in Congress.

Grublux's picture

Looks like

Someone is losing their shorts!

silver.gif

Texas Sandman's picture

??? Secondary Long Entry ???

MACD rejections by the zero line often work as well, though it's not as safe as the entry earlier the month closer to 30.

SIlverbee's picture

Nice little run

In silver at the mo

Unusual time?

Syndicate contentComments for "Items From The Mailbag"