Pailin's Trading Corner

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VietDude
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AAPL @ 445.00

Shorted AAPL at $514 the day before earning report.

Time to be back in at 445? Any taker?

Silverman
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Weekly slow stochastics still in uptrend

Last thing remains positive is weekly slow stochastics. It's still pointing sharply upside. That's why we could say this correction is intermediate. 

csquared13
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VietDude wrote: Shorted AAPL

VietDude wrote:

Shorted AAPL at $514 the day before earning report.

Time to be back in at 445? Any taker?

I suspect that price has capitulated/is capitulating. (largest volume expansion to the down-side since the descent from 700)

So if this ain't the bottom, it's damn close IMO.

BlackHawk
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Just a reminder to RW

This is a shout out to RW on behalf of any greenhorns who have not yet been burned trading miners from BlackHawk.

In my way of thinking, in general, the price of miners is directly proportional to the price of gold and/or silver. The price of miners is also directly related to the price of equity indices. Therefore, where equity index prices are constant, the price of miners goes up when gold and silver prices go up. Where gold and silver prices are constant, the price of miners go down when indices go down. Agreed? I am discounting the unpredictable effects of pump and dumps, fabulously rich newly-discovered mother lodes, M&A activity, etc.

The markets overall are hitting some remarkable high--highs at the moment. There is a great deal of bearish sentiment both about the falling price of metals (see Silverman's chart above) and the overall markets. This is not exactly a BTFD moment IMHO.

Please do explain kindly for me if you will, what is there to entice a rational person to buy miners this morning?

D E
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lighten up

Looking to lighten up April PL into the weekend from 1695-1701 if spike continues...if not, will carry to next week...too anxious on entry, but will be watching this metal closely as supply seems constrained...GLTA

redwood
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Off to work but will reply as

Off to work but will reply as soon as I can.

pailin
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Icahn vs Ackman

Friggin' awesome. On CNBC live right now :)

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I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild

Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell

Eman Laer
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Brother John F

He's been talking about Apple collapsing for a long time. Below is a video he made about it from April of 2012 when AAPL was around $630. The first several minutes are about Apple as are the last few.

His latest analysis: 

http://www.brotherjohnf.com/

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SSK
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Support for the miners

Support for the miners testing the Aug 1st '12 low.  For NUGT, that's 7.94, just .03 away from current price.  Next up (or is that down) is the May 16th '12  low at 7.69.  I don't pretend to know where price moves, but we are testing pretty important support.  

So yeah, to answer Blackhawk, it might make sense to nibble here with a stop around $7.50.  RSI of 30 has traditionally been a good entry for the miners. At 31 now for the NUGT.

SSK
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How depressing is this.

How depressing is this. Sigh.

From trader Dan:

both the S&P 500 and the HUI are right back to where they were in 2008. So consider it as FIVE LONG WASTED YEARS. Motto - Drink heavily and deeply and do nothing but watch reality shows with the rest of the population.

Lord Henry
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A year ago I hated currency

trading, but now with all the other markets so

crummy, I'll give it a go. Just did a P1 on short

USDCAD, which I hope has peaked. Looking to

do short EURUSD  soon, when  the  chart action

looks right. Bought gold, (again), it must be near

a 10 buck rise after dropping nearly 40 ?

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Wake me up at HUI 200.
No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.

pailin
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pailin wrote: Friggin'

pailin wrote:

Friggin' awesome. On CNBC live right now :)

some quotes and links to video...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-25/ultimate-hedge-fund-deathmatch-icahn-and-ackman-real-billionaire-husbands-cnbc-going

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I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild

Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell

csquared13
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SSK wrote: Support for the

SSK wrote:

Support for the miners testing the Aug 1st '12 low.  For NUGT, that's 7.94, just .03 away from current price.  Next up (or is that down) is the May 16th '12  low at 7.69.  I don't pretend to know where price moves, but we are testing pretty important support.  

So yeah, to answer Blackhawk, it might make sense to nibble here with a stop around $7.50.  RSI of 30 has traditionally been a good entry for the miners. At 31 now for the NUGT.

very good choice of words there with "nibble", SSK. Metals OE next week could provide more buying opp's

JustAnotherLurker
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This is interesting

Russia Palladium Reserve Seen by Johnson Matthey Almost Gone

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-25/russia-palladium-reserve-seen-by-johnson-matthey-almost-gone-1-.html

@SSK

It does suck some serious balls.

I do agree with Santa though, at some point the long gold short miners trade will have to unwind, but if Atlee's bull flag chart proves to be right that won't be anytime soon.

Having the S&P where it is with miners at this level is pretty concerning too.

I've been holding a lot of miners for a few years, it isn't fun.

This chart on main is worth a look though:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/263686#comment-263686

redwood
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Hi BH

I'll itemize to keep it succinct.

1. Debt ceiling talks have now been deferred to the late summer I believe.  Traders right now are actually bullish and so I see this strong market continuing for a while, perhaps for the remainder of 2013.

2. I would say that the correlation of miners to silver to gold is more logarithmic than linear, hence contraction/expansion will be multiples of each.  That's why in a strong market 2 years ago people made a mint in miners, esp. silver miners and even more so miner derivatives. So for eg. NUGT went approx. 42 at the height of the silver market in April 2011. It is now a 1/5 of that.  Gold is only a small fraction off (a hundred bucks?) from spring 2011.  Also remember that that correlation is also measured in time of response, not just price.  If you were one of the lucky ones you took your profits then and sat on the sidelines for a while. So I disagree with Norcini on this one.  It was a great waste of time if you took profits.

3. Look at the gold and silver charts, 5 year and 1 yearfor eg.  They are on the verge of going higher.  The other scenario is that they could drop, silver to 26, and gold to 1550.  It's possible but I favor the first because it respects the trend line of the 5 year graph.

4. The metals market is unique from many perspectives: it is cyclical, volatile, highly manipulated, loved and sometimes despised.  It evokes much sentiment for a number of reasons, so you have to be on it all the time.  A real disincentive esp if time is more valuable for other things.  For that reason I trade both sides of this trade.  For example I've been in DUST the last few days.  So your question most importantly begs the question "how do you trade this market".

5. If you accept that disinterest in miners has reached an all time nadir, and that the general market is healthy enough to sustain miners, this would be a good time to buy.  I won't say the best because as I said before metals I think have a few more up and down cycles before it hits a really good run.  But if you trade the ETF's like I am it may be worth your while. I'm not encouraging because these ETF's can be truly deadly.  GL

Eman Laer
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Redwood

I don't know how much you read ZeroHedge, but I wonder what you and others think of this article:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-25/what-happened-precious-metals

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I swing trade by the seat of my pants, but I do make a little profit somehow. Any comments I make about my trades should be taken with a grain of salt, and maybe as a contrarian indicator.

redwood
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I think I read somewhere that

I think I read somewhere that AAPL holdings account for something like a fifth of the NASDAQ.  That's quite a junk but as the ZH shows it didn't make an impact on the ES just the metals.  I am assuming that when the above says traders are selling metals they mean GLD and SLV to cover losses for AAPL.  Fair enough.

Yes those ETF's like NUGT/DUST and the millions of others are very vulnerable....you know the derivatives crash everyone writes about when it comes time to own up to the massive debt.

AAPL is not dead by any means.  Imho it will go through a period of cocooning and reawaken as a stunning butterfly once again.  So I don't see it as a continuing threat to the general market and therefore the metals.  Lot of assumptions here I know, but you have to make a decision somewhere and it may start just with do I trade or not.

You may also be interested in this article that directly addresses SLV.  Also as we so often hear, but an example likethis is when it begins to count, is separating the paper from the physical market.  I don't ever assume that GLD or SLV reflect the physical market.  Like Pailin I believe we will hear about the shortages when it is too late.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1133041-what-s-going-on-at-the-ishares-silver-trust

SSK
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Hey Lurker, I hear ya.  The

Hey Lurker,

I hear ya.  The little trader douche with the GLD:GDX spread trade chart that Atlee posted raised my hackles. That's the prick who has been screwing us for years. Good to put a face on him. 

That said, the worm has a good point about the spread. Looking like a break out. Or just another ping-pong channel about to revert.

redwood
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Lurker

Thanks for that graph, the more to support.  As to palladium, I remember reading the same stuff about palladium in Russia being depleted, I believe it was 2010.  I bought some pal. stocks back then, they did well for a while, but  like the other metals stocks went down the tube.  May be a good time to buy again, dk.

Eman Laer
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Faber on Apple

On 12/19/12 he said Apple was overvalued and that the downside potential was huge. 

Of course he stacks physical gold which represents 25% if his personal portfolio and he buys every month...

__________________

I swing trade by the seat of my pants, but I do make a little profit somehow. Any comments I make about my trades should be taken with a grain of salt, and maybe as a contrarian indicator.

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