Charts

Lots to talk about today but it's late, so, all you get are charts.

I've had a very busy morning. I had intended to write a bunch of stuff about silver demand but that's going to have to wait until tomorrow. Besides, the charts need your attention as Feb13 gold option expiration and First Notice Day is right around the corner and we need to stay alert.

So let's look at gold. First of all, you can clearly see on the daily and weekly charts that it is working itself into a corner. Normally, this would be fine as it might be just as apt to break out and UP than out and down.

However, option expiration for the Feb13 is next Monday, the 28th. Following closely behind, First Notice Day for delivery is next Wednesday, the 30th. As per usual, we must expect some Cartel shenanigans as they try to shake price and rattle/dissuade prospective "deliverees". Then throw this log on the fire...the daily chart with RSI. Note that the battle against 1700 resistance has sapped some of gold's momentum and the RSI (a measure of momentum) is actually turning lower, below the levels last seen in late November.

All of this means that the next 3-5 trading days in gold will likely hold more weakness than strength. All of us stackers should be looking to buy a dip that could take prices down to the $1660-1670 level. Paper traders, especially those with Feb13 contracts should be wary.

Though weakness in gold always spills over into the silver pit, the situation there doesn't look nearly as tenuous. Both the daily and weekly charts show plenty of wiggle room for silver to move without violating any of the current trends.

And the silver chart with RSI looks OK for now, too. The RSI has climbed significantly...that's what seven, consecutive UP days will do for you...but it's still trending higher and is not yet to the late November levels. At any rate, I like silver here and I might be looking to buy some March or May calls if weakness spills over from selling in gold.

Have a great day but, after the action this morning, be on the lookout for that nasty, little Globex gold algo again this afternoon.

TF

325 Comments

Groaner's picture

anyone note the selling going on in the miners?

enough already!@

Mickey's picture

Miners-Groaner

been relentless the past few days.

Something going on--not sure what

But in an all out crisis I do not want miners-just want gold and silver and maybe silver is not as much real money as gold is. Gold is certainly easier to carry around in higher value.

I think the stuff is going to hit the fan real soon. There is no growth and if the fed keeps pumping the markets someone could  and might notice the pe of marketcould be at 20 for no top line growth.

Harald's picture

Bitcoins should be discussed

Bitcoins should be discussed in this forum, it's just that I respectfully disagree.  My philosophy is that it's best to get as much of your money as possible off the grid.  When the Feds ask me what I did with the large cash withdrawals I took from my bank account, I'll tell them "I lose it at the racetrack."  

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

No internet means a total halt to commerce

Just remember if the "kill switch" is ever used, you are talking about Mad Max instantaneously-  All modern goods distribution systems would shut down immediately.  For example,  all grocery stores use check-out scanners linked to their computer system to automatically restock shelves from the warehouses, who also use their computer systems through the internet to order from suppliers, who use their computers to order from producers, etc. etc.  No internet means no means of ordering or organizing distribution of food, and people are hungry and ready to riot within three days.   The same holds true for everything from auto parts to gasoline to heavy machinery spares to medicines.  ALL large-scale modern commerce relies on internet/computer ordering and processing.  

So the moment the internet is "killed" the entire system of commerce, production, and distribution is shut down immediately.  The ramifications for society as a whole would be dire, terribly unpredictable, and quickly felt.  And whoever shut it down would be obviously and publicly responsible for the enormous clusterf*ck that resulted... a very high cost, indeed.  This makes it highly unlikely, in my opinion.   

usk's picture

About miners

My take: the cartel need OI in silver futures reduced in the 4 following days. they are naked-short selling miners, then the funds get margin calls and sell their futs to raise margin.

Mickey's picture

the other possibility on miners

is that they are just being supressed. And when we turn the corner we do see a similar type rally that we saw start late 2008--what was that 340% rally?

Since hte end of 2000, hui is up just under 10 times--was up 14 times -now just over 400 was just over 600.

hiu has a habit of being rather volatile.

you definitely want to be on the right side of the miners , which might be all we are seeing now--all the trading programs go to sideliness and wil return when we start seeing an uptrend which would then exacerbate the upside.

I hope

I guess what I am saying is there are too many traders out there good, bad or indifferent. What our genius leaders should be doing is to cut volatility is cut short term gains. But they want to tax transactions which may or may not be effective.

Be Prepared's picture

It's would be easy to kill the Internet...

if you're the people who control the internet name servers.... turn them off and most people don't even know what an ip address is... much less the ip addresses to all their favorite sites.  Just that act alone would kill most of the internet activity.  Also, if and when they want to kill the internet, who says that they would want to have it up again..... if you don't care about destroying something, it's a lot easier to bring it down.

I never forget they have unlimited money and can do their work behind the shields of the Patriot Act, NDAA, and every other crap bill that now makes them completely unaccountable to you and me....  The internet is up because it supports the pretext that everything in our society is normal, but, more importantly, it's the greatest spying network in the world.  When the super data center goes live in Utah later this year, it will siphon unbelievable amounts of information.  Why turn something off that allows them into your home and your daily life?  They won't turn it off until it turns against them, but that tide is quickly turning in their favor.  Sorry, we are down the rabbit hole and the truth sucks.... :-)

Grublux's picture

Bitcoins

Are off the grid in my opinion.  Yes it is speculative and a competing currency could come along.  But the decentralization is what has really sold me on it.  The ability to go anywhere in the world and activate your "brain wallet" and trade it for gold allows some portability to a bugout plan.

There are risks in every investment/spec.  I wouldn't put all my eggs in the bit basket but it is worth a deeper look.

Mantis

Maybe you could elaborate on what I have read about hacking bitcoin.  According to what I have read it would take more effort/resources to hack it then it would to mine bitcoin.  Making hacking a non issue.

Nana's picture

Mr. Fix

Thank you for your kind words.

Everyone in this community has so much to offer, teach and contribute. This community is so far ahead of the curve, we all help each other and I am just tickled pink I found this community full of knowledge, compassion and hope.

57Goldtop's picture

Pining

Agreed, with one exception: 

"...whoever shut it down would be obviously and publicly responsible..."

Of this I am skeptical. The general population would never know for sure who was responsible, imho.

Edit: were it to ever happen, TPTB would be the heroes that restored the blessed internet, with some obvious newly introduced limitations and tracking.

Patriot act, anyone?

hsofiak's picture

Plight of the Miners

The EE wants to drive everyone out of the miners to acquire them for themselves. 

Groaner's picture

The joke is that the miners were up on the FTSE..

what changed?

onealpha's picture

Bitcoin Virus

What if?

Sheetrocker's picture

Port Arthur Massacre

For IRB, who mentioned this above, or anyone else who may find this of interest. There is a fair amount of information on Australia's mass shootings that led to their strict gun laws, that I don't think is widely known by Americans. See if any of this sounds familiar.

1. Committed by a mentally challenged young man.

2. Had a court hearing to determine his competency prior to the massacre, while he was out of the country and unable to be present. Totally illegal. (can't remember the ruling, as it's been a long time since I watched the whole video).

3. Massive preparedness drills for just such an event, immediately prior to it's occurrence.

4. There had been no mass shootings in Australia before a concerted effort for gun control developed, then there were several. After strict gun laws were enacted, there have been no more mass shootings, despite many Australians refusal to comply and the fact guns are readily available on the black market.

5. After a failed prior attempt at restrictive legislation, a prominent official had stated "We won't get uniform gun regulation until we have a mass shooting in Tasmania".

6. Originally pled not guilty, but after a couple of lawyer changes pled guilty, so there was no trial.

7. Trampling of the constitution and states rights, just like here.

8. One of the two assault rifles he allegedly used had been previously confiscated by the police, proven by it's serial number.

9. Evidence and investigation were mishandled.

There are things I have forgotten, due to not having watched this video for some time, but I think the points above are pretty accurate. It is a long watch at 2 1/2 hours but comes in two parts. If you go to it on You Tube you can find other videos on the same subject.

Here is an article on the massacre.

http://members.iimetro.com.au/~hubbca/port_arthur.htm

Grublux's picture

Bitcoin Virus

I guess it would all depend on what the virus did.  If your bitcoins are at an address that was created offline then they are impossible to get with a virus.  Maybe individual exchanges can get hit with a virus...

Bill of Rights's picture

(No subject)

Mickey's picture

drive evryone out of miners

I am pretty sure there are people like us who are "like" the miners sector now but have a trigger finger ready to buy.

Likewise we have the bigger hft who might be short or just out who will buy in an instant.

Buy and hold used to be predominant and with good stuff will still work . now funds and people want to outperform whatever benchmark they have to you need to buy and sell at right time--tall order but many think they can do it regularly.

If my memory serves me correct the hui rallied back in 2008 15% one day.

That would get anyones attention.

we now also have the NUGT and UGLD and USLV (and AGQ and DGP and UGL etc) funds which are best used for short term moves. Those do not exactly help with the volatility.

but AGQ ran from 55 or so summer of 2010 to 360 or so April 2011. That folks is on hell of a quick run. If we do get the run up that some of the smart folks in this sector think we get you will see huge piling in to make it happen and then it becomes self fulfilling.

Trick is to be there early on

¤'s picture

Inevitabilty of internet going 'down'

I agree with Pining completely in the seriousness of the internet (or electronic banking system) being shut-off or going down. The banking system seems a likely target due to an active cyber war that has been going on for quite awhile even if it's an  invisible and electronic war that doesn't garner public attention.

I see the 'the system' (civilian part of it) going offline as being inevitable and I see it happening because of a cyber attack of some sort. It could also be done by the US as a preemptive or reactive national security measure.....with full lawful authority to do so.

Of course, something as simple and unpredictable as a giant solar flare/ EMP could happen out of the blue and take down some crucial satellites but that's not something I give much thought to.

I'm expecting something along the lines of a cyber attack from China, Russia, Iran, N. Korea to happen in my lifetime.....for sure.

edit: I see 57GT chimed in about the Patriot Act also.yes

It looks like the 3 of us (and others) are in agreement about the seriousness of it ever happening and the instant repercussions.

Grublux's picture

Bitcoins

Are up 38% in the last month

Just saying

Puck T. Smith's picture

@Groaner: "If you have a

@Groaner: "If you have a better solution to the over whelming problems on this earth, let me know."

We could always try giving up our belief in iron age fairly tails written by ignorant desert goat herders.

Prize Fighter's picture

Everything returns to the

Everything returns to the mean.  From nothing to nothing, such is Bitcoins.  Beanie Babies have more reality based value than Bitcoins.  At least gold/silver has some utilitarian function.  A digital construct called a "coin."  Now that's funny.

Returns on being clever isn't my only goal.  Truth plays a large part and I don't find a lot of truth in digital currency.  Good luck bitcoiners.

El Gordo's picture

3 solutions to the overwhelming problems on this earth

1.  Mind your own business

2.  Mind your own damn business

3.  Mind your own goddam business

Prize Fighter's picture

silver went up 38% in a month

silver went up 38% in a month before. 

Just saying

Sheetrocker's picture

@Ten_of_Swords

I am sure Mary Jo will do a great job. For them!

Mantis's picture

Grublux

I think they are up  200 or 300% over the last 12 months!

Just adding that little chestnut

Mantis's picture

bitcoins last 12 months

Grublux I think they are up  200 or 300% over the last 12 months!

[edit - added chart]

Just adding that little chestnut

Mantis's picture

delete me

sorry for multiple posts my computer had a moment

Bill of Rights's picture

Bundesbank’s Weber, JPMorgan’s Dimon Warn About Global Easing

http://investmentwatchblog.com/warning-to-all-investors-bundesbanks-weber-jpmorgans-dimon-roubini-warn-about-global-easing-bofa-warns-of-1987-and-1994-scenarios-yales-shiller-sees-housing-market-have-further-to-drop-bil/

Even as the International Monetary Fund cuts its global growth outlook, a flood of stimulus is running into criticism at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos. Among the concerns: so-called quantitative easing is fanning complacency among governments and households, fueling the risk of a race to devalue currencies and leading to asset bubbles.

“Central banks can buy time, but they cannot fix issues long-term,” former Bundesbank President Axel Weber, now chairman of UBS AG, said in the Swiss ski resort. “There’s a perception that they are the only game in town.”

57Goldtop's picture

Bank cyber attacks

Good post Haze.

These cyber attacks have been going on for quite a while and if you do a news search you'll see that it still conclusively points to Iran as the culprit as recently as yesterday.

And.... TPTB can't do anything to stop it or disrupt the disrupters for almost a year? Riiiiiiiight. I've got some nice properties in Flint MI for sale if anyone's interested.

Grublux's picture

Silver up

I am aware of this.  Love silver.  Still stack.  Bitcoin will not be for everyone. 

My main reason for even looking into it in the first place is for a plan X. 

If I have to leave the country in a rush (If this would even be possible in such a scenario) I am skeptical that I would be able to carry out 100's of ounces of silver and get by TSA.  This puts a small kink in the portability plan for PM's

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