Charts

Lots to talk about today but it's late, so, all you get are charts.

I've had a very busy morning. I had intended to write a bunch of stuff about silver demand but that's going to have to wait until tomorrow. Besides, the charts need your attention as Feb13 gold option expiration and First Notice Day is right around the corner and we need to stay alert.

So let's look at gold. First of all, you can clearly see on the daily and weekly charts that it is working itself into a corner. Normally, this would be fine as it might be just as apt to break out and UP than out and down.

However, option expiration for the Feb13 is next Monday, the 28th. Following closely behind, First Notice Day for delivery is next Wednesday, the 30th. As per usual, we must expect some Cartel shenanigans as they try to shake price and rattle/dissuade prospective "deliverees". Then throw this log on the fire...the daily chart with RSI. Note that the battle against 1700 resistance has sapped some of gold's momentum and the RSI (a measure of momentum) is actually turning lower, below the levels last seen in late November.

All of this means that the next 3-5 trading days in gold will likely hold more weakness than strength. All of us stackers should be looking to buy a dip that could take prices down to the $1660-1670 level. Paper traders, especially those with Feb13 contracts should be wary.

Though weakness in gold always spills over into the silver pit, the situation there doesn't look nearly as tenuous. Both the daily and weekly charts show plenty of wiggle room for silver to move without violating any of the current trends.

And the silver chart with RSI looks OK for now, too. The RSI has climbed significantly...that's what seven, consecutive UP days will do for you...but it's still trending higher and is not yet to the late November levels. At any rate, I like silver here and I might be looking to buy some March or May calls if weakness spills over from selling in gold.

Have a great day but, after the action this morning, be on the lookout for that nasty, little Globex gold algo again this afternoon.

TF

325 Comments

tyberious's picture

Whats wrong with this pie chart?

Turd Ferguson's picture

Another item of caution

MODERATOR

Yesterday, the OI in gold rose by over 9000 contracts to 461,369. This is the highest OI level since 11/27/12, three days before FND of the Dec12.

What happened next? In order to dissuade delivery, price was raided for $33 over 3 days and OI fell by a whopping 37,000 contracts. Be on the lookout for the employment of the same tactics over the next 5 trading days.

Complete And Utter Bollocks's picture

philipat

Why pass up on yet another opportunity to label someone a terrorist?

Urban Roman's picture

philipat,

I don't think the time is quite right yet. Soon, perhaps, but not right now. 

I think there's still some room for a 'flight to safety' in the metals. They'll go up before they go down.  

But, yes, if the DX goes to 88, the PMs will be negatively affected by that... as will a lot of other things. 

And it's worth noting, we have recently seen some intervals of positive correlation between the metals and the dollar. 

[edit]
On the other hand, see Turd's warning, above ^^^^^.

Mr. Fix's picture

Reply to Whats wrong with this pie chart? Submitted by tyberious

My biggest problem with that pie chart, is that prior to 2009, I was making one hell of a good living in construction.

Now there is no work to be found.

I guess it's unfortunate that that became my chosen field of endeavor.

Those jobs are never coming back.

I guess I'm lucky I know how to do some other things also.

Most of the guys that I used to work with, will never work again, or stock shelves at the Home Depot and Walmart until they die.

JAL's picture

Silver Option OI

@Turd

Does that chart mean anything to you?

tyberious's picture

Comex OI

Fleeced again :-|

BrotherJohnF did a excellent vid on Apple options. And how on Friday, 01/18/13 Apple closed at 500.00, both puts and calls expired worthless!

Sheeple

Complete And Utter Bollocks's picture

RE - Whats wrong with this pie chart?

Zilch in the banking sector wink.

Byzantium's picture

Whats wrong with this pie chart?

It is claiming that the Gubmint is shedding jobs, LOL

tyberious's picture

Pie Chart

Government is not a Industry! It creates nothing! Ok maybe it can be a service but it produces no earnings or profits!

Byzantium's picture

@ Just another Lurker / Turd

First off, are we sure that it is reporting on Comex? It doesn't say so explicitly; maybe I am not very smart.

Also, the tab that shows 'Open interest difference' (go to the site  to see), shows all the action between 31.25 & 33.25, and again between $24.75 and $26.25.  I don't know whether that is correct, and what to make of it, but it sounds quite interesting........

s2man's picture

Silver dis-hoarding

My LCS owner says price has something to do with folks selling their silver, but economic hardship is a bigger factor.  Local layoffs will stimulate selling more than price alone (at the LCS, not at the mint level).

Of course, employment does not affect the large hoarders; But a large drop in the DOW, or housing, or bonds could put them in a situation where the must sell their PMs regardless of the current price. 

By this reckoning, we should hope for economic disaster, large or small, to force selling, increase supply and drop prices.  Um, I won't wish that on any of us.  I'll just keep making my monthly dollar-cost-averaging purchases, regardless of price.

Confession: I pulled my January purchace forward into December as I couldn't stand to miss that dip.  wink

henry's picture

One of my Heros

Hugo Salinas Price...  He reminds me of that Ferguson guy !

Since 1971, there is no "monetary system" for the very simple reason that there is no longer any parameter to credit expansion.

What we have had since 1971 is an explosive process of credit creation in the world. Total world debt is calculated to be 350% of world GNP.

The explosion – like the explosion of a firecracker – is now entering its collapse phase. There is no way to avoid the collapse: World debt of 350% of world GNP is unsustainable. There is absolutely no way out of this. The world has not put just a finger in the fire. It has put its whole body in the fire. The pain of the coming collapse will be ghastly.

Ambrose Evans–Pritchard Beats About the Bush
Hugo Salinas Price

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/01.13/thebush.html

Mr. Fix's picture

@ tyberious

Thank you for stating the answer, somehow I missed that one.  Although, if you are in government, you probably consider your self to be in the most important industry overall.

After all,  tyranny and suppression  are hard work.

And the military-industrial complex most certainly needs to be considered industrial,

but you are completely correct that government does not produce anything that could be considered profitable,

and  it is only a parasite on all  real industry.

I also do not think government has lost that many jobs.

ballyale's picture

Now tell me we aren't now a Fascist State.

Re: Assistant Atty. admits to two kinds of Justice in the US. US and the Banksters. Comparison

 
Here is a list from this site -> http://rense.com/general37/char.htm
 
I could easily say more than 3/4 apply to the USA today, and that bothers me. The Republic needs to be returned to its place alongside and with the Constitution, IMO.
 
Now add Jim Sinclair's Snippet for today : "

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

As long as Presidents are elected by the majority of voters that are beholding to the government for their living, this direction cannot be reversed. A liberal society with liberal representation will not be able to attend to growing debts. All management of markets that attempt to conceal this fact of political life will fail to change the trends reflecting the financial future of the left. Gold will go to $3500 and above."

 
And you get a picture of what we are up against. Its time for the Republic to return, no man on a white horse but rather grassroots citizen power like Ron Paul used with less than 2% of the public eligible to vote, he scared the liver out of them.
 
Dr. Lawrence Britt has examined the fascist regimes of Hitler (Germany), Mussolini (Italy), Franco (Spain), Suharto (Indonesia) and several Latin American regimes. Britt found 14 defining characteristics common to each:
 
1. Powerful and Continuing Nationalism - Fascist regimes tend to make constant use of patriotic mottos, slogans, symbols, songs, and other paraphernalia. Flags are seen everywhere, as are flag symbols on clothing and in public displays.
 
2. Disdain for the Recognition of Human Rights - Because of fear of enemies and the need for security, the people in fascist regimes are persuaded that human rights can be ignored in certain cases because of "need." The people tend to look the other way or even approve of torture, summary executions, assassinations, long incarcerations of prisoners, etc.
 
3. Identification of Enemies/Scapegoats as a Unifying Cause - The people are rallied into a unifying patriotic frenzy over the need to eliminate a perceived common threat or foe: racial , ethnic or religious minorities; liberals; communists; socialists, terrorists, etc.
 
4. Supremacy of the Military - Even when there are widespread
domestic problems, the military is given a disproportionate amount of government funding, and the domestic agenda is neglected. Soldiers and military service are glamorized.
 
5. Rampant Sexism - The governments of fascist nations tend to be almost exclusively male-dominated. Under fascist regimes, traditional gender roles are made more rigid. Divorce, abortion and homosexuality are suppressed and the state is represented as the ultimate guardian of the family institution.
 
6. Controlled Mass Media - Sometimes to media is directly controlled by the government, but in other cases, the media is indirectly controlled by government regulation, or sympathetic media spokespeople and executives. Censorship, especially in war time, is very common.
 
7. Obsession with National Security - Fear is used as a motivational tool by the government over the masses.
 
8. Religion and Government are Intertwined - Governments in fascist nations tend to use the most common religion in the nation as a tool to manipulate public opinion. Religious rhetoric and terminology is common from government leaders, even when the major tenets of the religion are diametrically opposed to the government's policies or actions.
 
9. Corporate Power is Protected - The industrial and business aristocracy of a fascist nation often are the ones who put the government leaders into power, creating a mutually beneficial business/government relationship and power elite.
 
10. Labor Power is Suppressed - Because the organizing power of labor is the only real threat to a fascist government, labor unions are either eliminated entirely, or are severely suppressed.
 
11. Disdain for Intellectuals and the Arts - Fascist nations tend to promote and tolerate open hostility to higher education, and academia. It is not uncommon for professors and other academics to be censored or even arrested. Free expression in the arts and letters is openly attacked.
 
12. Obsession with Crime and Punishment - Under fascist regimes, the police are given almost limitless power to enforce laws. The people are often willing to overlook police abuses and even forego civil liberties in the name of patriotism. There is often a national police force with virtually unlimited power in fascist nations.
 
13. Rampant Cronyism and Corruption - Fascist regimes almost always are governed by groups of friends and associates who appoint each other to government positions and use governmental power and authority to protect their friends from accountability. It is not uncommon in fascist regimes for national resources and even treasures to be appropriated or even outright stolen by government leaders.
 
14. Fraudulent Elections - Sometimes elections in fascist nations are a complete sham. Other times elections are manipulated by smear campaigns against or even assassination of opposition candidates, use of legislation to control voting numbers or political district boundaries, and manipulation of the media. Fascist nations also typically use their judiciaries to manipulate or control elections.
 
From Liberty Forum
 
http://www.libertyforum.org/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=news_constitution&Number=642
109&page=&view=&sb=&o=&vc=1&t=-1

 

ancientmoney's picture

The HSBC silver purchase of $876 million . . .

isn't that big of a deal, if kept in perspective.

First of all, it was spread out over the last twelve months.  The total, assuming $30/oz., is the equivalent of fewer than 6,000 COMEX silver contracts.  Divide that by 12 months, you have about 500 COMEX contracts per month.  JPM is net short something like 30,000+ silver contracts at any given time. . .

Zoltan's picture

Do the Miner indices being down predict a metals slam?

updown XAU 160.26 -3.89
updown HUI 425.73 -10.20
updown JSE Gold 2,304.15 +33.51
updown GOX 181.72 -5.44
updown TSX Gold 296.04 -4.52

An ugly day for the miners, again.

This often precedes a beat down in the metals prices.

Just saying.

Z

AgNovice's picture

The masses are waking

Two instances in the last week: on Friday, I had to break in a new lawyer. It turns out that having income producing properties only produces income if the tenant pays. Go figure...

I guess my earlier comments got her thinking because after we took care of business, she told me that we were off the clock and asked if I collected silver and asked few questions about it. It looked like she was recently awakened because as we talked about the current dictatorial moves, she seemed excited and relieved to have found a kindred spirit. I directed her to TFMR. She knew of the ancient gold/silver/jewelry pawn shop a few blocks away but never considered picking some up there. That evening, she did.

Secondly, I was giving a ride to a good friend who had a call from the alarm service for his house. He was concerned about his lead delivery devices, and his small coin collection, but he said he was more interested in his collection. I asked him about it and he described pre-65 coin, and as we talked, I drew him out about it, not betraying my limited knowledge, wanting to understand the depth of his. I later turned him on to TFMR as well.

oh, and the RNC called today. I gave the nice young lady a small diatribe to send up the chain.

JAL's picture

@Byzantium

You mean this?

P.S. CME Group owns COMEX.

ag1969's picture

@bollocks

I can't imagine you could think less of me than you already do wink but just so you don't think I am a ****, check this out:

http://www.isitdownrightnow.com/capitalone.com.html

Scroll down to the comments and you will see I was not the only one with this problem in the last couple of days.  Sorry to divert the topic, but it appears to me that a good percentage of the time I try to access my accounts at either Sovereign, Wells Fargo, or Capital One, that their website is down.  I have a website for my business, and a pretty rotten budget for my website compared to, say, Capital One, and I count on 1 hand the number of times my site has gone down in the last 5 years.  And it was never for more than a few minutes, never mind days. 

I don't know what is going on, but IMHO, something is stinky with the banking websites.  And I know I shouldn't have any money in those banks.  Capital One I just have a business CC with and Sovereign is just for my merchant services.  Which is another thing I have noticed the past 18 months:  Everytime I process a charge for more than $2000, even after approving the transaction in a normal fashion, the bank finds some excuse to hold my money for a few extra days.  And they don't tell me the reason until I call them and ask them where my money is.

"You need to reverify some security questions"

Really? reverify security questions?  Was anyone going to let me know?  Or were you just waiting to sneak in a dry hump before tipping me off to the rule change?

Rant off.

old tradesman's picture

got gold and silver

Byzantium's picture

@Just another Lurker

Nearly; the screenshot as is, is focused on too narrow a range.

But in the same screenshot, you can see in the bottom strip, the rest of it on a smaller scale.

To the left, in the grey bit, is the action to which I refer, around $25.

ballyale's picture

The EE are still showing strength

They basically beat back all of the gains from yesterday. While silver "spot" prices barely budged, all the silver miner were beaten back to yesterday start levels or below.

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEAMEX%3AAXU&ei=jkQAUaDxOLGh0AGoRw

My God they must have a lot of money to do this. Of course, they're backed by the Fed and the Treas.

I think that they want to keep the miners in a state of near poverty and bank dependency, like they want to do with the most of the US population.

The miners have to produce at these prices just to stay alive marginally. The Comex masters want it that way.

Hell if gold or silver doubled, the miners would be stacking to create even greater price increases. The EE is scared to Hades that the Crimex "spot" prices will do  exactly that.

The global fundamentals, however, are totally against them long term and they know it. It won't be soon before the Crimex PM "spot" prices can not be covered by bribes for those longs to roll over their positions. The large longs will soon realize that it better to be first in line to take their PM's as actual phyzz rather than be last in line with no more than Fiat, where the price of PM's goes totally out of control.

That's called a bullion bank run and any large holders of PM's in the Comex should take delivery now or see their holdings diminish by a rather large percentage.

Bally

old tradesman's picture

Nothing to see here

CEO of JPMorgan says you don’t need to know how banking works, it’s like an airliner engine, too complex to explain, just shut up and pay us.

January 23, 2013

By Nick Sorrentino, Against Crony Capitalism

Jamie Dimon in Davos Switzerland today explaining why people don’t need to know what’s going on in the banking world. It’s too “complex.” Just know that their fee comes from managing this ball of financial confusion. And that’s all you need to know.

There, don’t you feel better? I mean it’s not like the world bailed out the whole banking system or anything. We should have faith.

 
 
Bill of Rights's picture

Fontana School PD Purchases

Fontana School PD Purchases 14 AR-15 Assault Weapons To Protect Students « CBS Los Angeles

Well isn't that Special.

That's about $375,000 for the NO FUNDS AVAILABLE State

babaganoush2307's picture

@ ag1969

Dude, same problem here.  I have a chase account that I only use to cash checks and deposit money in to pay bills with, every single time I cash a check or deposit more than a few hundred bucks they do the same thing to me.  Tell me that only $200 of my $XX deposited is available for the next X amount of business days, pisses me off so much.  If you ask me, holding ANY of your customers money ransom is a clear sign your either in trouble or worried about trouble... 

Mr. Fix's picture

“We are going to kill the dollar”

It is actually refreshing to hear a source state that a senior Obama administration official actually admitted to this strategy.

That should make anyone who is trying to figure out what comes next fairly confident in their precious metals positions.

Thank you old tradesman.

That's the first time I've actually heard a source from the Obama  administration state what has been obvious to us for so long.

“We are going to kill the dollar” should be the headline on all of the mainstream news outlets,

but that will never happen.

I wonder if such discussions are considered conspiratorial?wink

AlexCojones's picture

Dear Mr. Fix re Jobs in Bakken Oil Boom

You seem like a decent young hardworking fellow, Mr. Fix. I'm a dozen years older than you but I still might head out to the Oil Patch one day. I currently work summers in Alaska where the money is pretty good. However, check these sites out. As Ronald Reagan said back in the day: "Vote with your feet."  Or take a working vacation. I planned on driving there and living out of my small SUV. Construction of new housing can hardly keep up with the boom.

Be careful of course and do your due diligence.

Best, Alex

Desperately seeking workers in the oil patch - fedgazette ...

www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/pub_display.cfm?id...

Apr 18, 2012 – fedgazette. Desperately seeking workers in the oil patchJobs go begging in booming western North Dakota and northeastern Montana ...

[PDF] 

North Dakota Oilfield Employment - Job Service North Dakota

www.jobsnd.com/sites/default/files/Oilfield%20Employment.pdf

File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - Quick View
North Dakota‟s strong economy, low unemployment rate and booming oil industry continue to ... Finding employment in the oil patch is an attractive prospect for ...

Jobs Jumping in North Dakota Oil Patch - EmploymentSpectator ...

www.employmentspectator.com/.../jobs-jumping-in-north-dakota-oil...

Nov 26, 2012 – Jobs in the center of the Oil Patch of North Dakota have skyrocketed nearly 50 percent over the last 36 months, according to the Prairie ...

Workplace Deaths Rise In North Dakota Oil Patch

www.insurancejournal.com/news/midwest/2012/12/26/275165.htm

Dec 26, 2012 – Workplace Deaths Rise In North Dakota Oil Patch ... Oil patch-related occupations often are more dangerous than other jobs, Klipfel said.

old tradesman's picture

@babaganoush2307

you did not read my post from yesterday.  Chase sent notification to all customers in which even your $200.  will take up to 7 days!!!

IMPORTANT UPDATES ON ACCOUNT AGREEMENT

We will be making the following changes to the Deposit Account Agreement for Chase
checking and savings accounts, effective March 24, 2013.

We have:
- Added the following language to the Important Definitions section: Debit card
transaction: Includes any purchase from a merchant using your ATM card or debit card.
- Modified the agreement to clarify that we will only send one copy of any notice
relating to your account, even if the account has more than one owner.

- Revised our Funds Availability Policy. Under Longer Delays May Apply, we describe
circumstances where funds may not be available until the seventh business day after the day of deposit. We are deleting the sentence saying that the $200 from your deposit will be available on the next business day, so if we delay availability in those cases the delay may apply to the full amount of the deposit.

All other terms of your account agreement remain the same. If you have any questions about the changes, please call us at the number on the statement or visit your nearest branch

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