Charts

Wednesday, January 23, 2013 at 2:17 pm

Lots to talk about today but it's late, so, all you get are charts.

I've had a very busy morning. I had intended to write a bunch of stuff about silver demand but that's going to have to wait until tomorrow. Besides, the charts need your attention as Feb13 gold option expiration and First Notice Day is right around the corner and we need to stay alert.

So let's look at gold. First of all, you can clearly see on the daily and weekly charts that it is working itself into a corner. Normally, this would be fine as it might be just as apt to break out and UP than out and down.

However, option expiration for the Feb13 is next Monday, the 28th. Following closely behind, First Notice Day for delivery is next Wednesday, the 30th. As per usual, we must expect some Cartel shenanigans as they try to shake price and rattle/dissuade prospective "deliverees". Then throw this log on the fire...the daily chart with RSI. Note that the battle against 1700 resistance has sapped some of gold's momentum and the RSI (a measure of momentum) is actually turning lower, below the levels last seen in late November.

All of this means that the next 3-5 trading days in gold will likely hold more weakness than strength. All of us stackers should be looking to buy a dip that could take prices down to the $1660-1670 level. Paper traders, especially those with Feb13 contracts should be wary.

Though weakness in gold always spills over into the silver pit, the situation there doesn't look nearly as tenuous. Both the daily and weekly charts show plenty of wiggle room for silver to move without violating any of the current trends.

And the silver chart with RSI looks OK for now, too. The RSI has climbed significantly...that's what seven, consecutive UP days will do for you...but it's still trending higher and is not yet to the late November levels. At any rate, I like silver here and I might be looking to buy some March or May calls if weakness spills over from selling in gold.

Have a great day but, after the action this morning, be on the lookout for that nasty, little Globex gold algo again this afternoon.

TF

Comments

Mr. Fix's picture

@ Bohemian ...........I've got this one!

Submitted by Mr. Fix on January 23, 2013 - 8:41pm.

According to your analysis, everyone is consuming resources, and no one is actually creating anything. 

Unless of course you consider building a hamburger a construction job, or manufacturing ha ha ha ha.

Sheetrocker:

Welcome back, and thank you for the analysis. Sometimes I do overlook the fact that in a true SHTF  scenario, the most important asset will be friends.

And since this crisis is definitely going to be global, I'm finding it increasingly unlikely that there is any place left to run on earth.

Revelation's picture

Epic Jim Quinn and His Calls for 2013...

Submitted by Revelation on January 23, 2013 - 8:47pm.

http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=47568

A sampling...
 
My civic decay expectations for 2013 are as follows:
 
Progressive’s attempt to distract the masses from our worsening economic situation with their assault on the 2nd Amendment will fail. Congress will pass no new restrictions on gun ownership and 2013 will see the highest level of gun sales in history.
 
The deepening recession, higher taxes on small businesses and middle class, along with Obamacare mandates will lead to rising unemployment and rising anger with the failed economic policies of the last four years. Protests and rallies will begin to burgeon.
 
The number of people on food stamps will reach 50 million and the number of people on SSDI will reach 11 million. Jamie Dimon, Lloyd Blankfein, and Jeff Immelt will compensate themselves to the tune of $100 million. CNBC will proclaim an economic recovery based on these facts.
 
The drought will continue in 2013 resulting in higher food prices, ethanol prices, and shipping costs, as transporting goods on the Mississippi River will become further restricted. The misery index for the average American family will reach new highs.
 
There will be assassination attempts on political and business leaders as retribution for their actions during and after the financial crisis.
 
The revelation of more fraud in the financial sector will result in an outcry from the public for justice. Prosecutions will be pursued by State’s attorney generals, as Holder has been captured by Wall Street.
 
The deepening pension crisis in the states will lead to more state worker layoffs and more confrontation between governors attempting to balance budgets and government worker unions. There will be more municipal bankruptcies.
 
The gun issue will further enflame talk of state secession. The red state/blue state divide will grow ever wider. The MSM will aggravate the divisions with vitriolic propaganda.
 
The government will accelerate their surveillance efforts and renew their attempt to monitor, control, and censor the internet. This will result in increased cyber-attacks on government and corporate computer networks in retaliation.
ag1969's picture

Mr Fix

Submitted by ag1969 on January 23, 2013 - 8:48pm.

According to your analysis, I am guessing I can count on Subway reclassifying their Sandwich Artists very soon.  I am guessing before the next BSBLS.

Puck T. Smith's picture

Aircraft Engines Are Not That Complicated.

Submitted by Puck T. Smith on January 23, 2013 - 8:51pm.

This is a straight turbine engine.  It is really marvelously simple.

This is a turbo-fan.  It is a little more complicated, but not much.

When I was in the Air Force they were teaching this stuff to 17 and 18 year old kids who didn't even have high school diplomas.

Banking is not that difficult to understand either.

Banks pay interest on savings and charge interests on loans.

When banks need more saving they increase interest on savings.  Consequently, they must charge higher interest on loans to offset the higher rates to attract savings.  When interest rates are high it is a signal to producers that people are spending now not saving, so they concentrate on short term projects that quickly satisfy consumer demand.

When banks have a lot of money in savings they pay a lower interest rate.  Consequently, they can charge lower rates on loans because the are paying lower interest rates on saving.  When interest rates are low it is a signal to producers that people are not spending now, but saving for future consumption, so they concentrate on long term projects to meet future demand.

It is a wonderful feedback mechanism and it balances what the producers produce with what the consumer is consuming.

It only gets screwed up when a central bank forces interest rates lower by artificial means.  It makes producers think people are saving for future consumption so they start long term projects.  Since the consumers are not saving they are not planning on future consumption so when those long term project come to completion there are no deferred saving for people to spend on them.  The feedback mechanism is completely destroyed by false signals.

Crash.

I have a GED and community college degree in Arts and Sciences, mostly I concentrated on history, literature and the social sciences.  Basically a glorified high school diploma.  I am not a Harvard MBA, but I did listen to Ron Paul and read Murray Rothbard.

Jamie Dimon can eat a big bowl of dicks.

microwaveablekitten's picture

Did you hear the one about the Polish refiner that sold silver?

Submitted by microwaveablekitten on January 23, 2013 - 8:52pm.

I guess some stereotypes are well deserved. Too bad other countries are still trembling in fear of the U.N. military; if not, they could Conspire together to use their silver bullets to kill the beast that is oppressing the world.

old tradesman's picture

@ag1969

Submitted by old tradesman on January 23, 2013 - 8:53pm.

there will be no reclassification at subway until they understand 11 inches is not a foot(straight from corporate HQ)

old tradesman's picture

@Puck T. Smith

Submitted by old tradesman on January 23, 2013 - 8:58pm.

what happens when the banks get money for nothing?  Why would they lend?  and heres the untouchables(wall street)   http://dailybail.com/home/pbs-frontline-wall-street-untouchables.html

StevenBHorse's picture

Love it.

Submitted by StevenBHorse on January 23, 2013 - 9:05pm.

Jamie Dimon can eat a big bowl of dicks.

Plus one Gabillion hat tips. 

I now have even more respect for you sir, and your kickass beard.

Revelation's picture

If You Missed This Last Night...

Submitted by Revelation on January 23, 2013 - 9:06pm.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/untouchables/

The Untouchables on Frontline...

FRONTLINE investigates why Wall Street’s leaders have escaped prosecution for any fraud related to the sale of bad mortgages.

 
Mr. Fix's picture

Reply to revelation about Jim Quinn:

Submitted by Mr. Fix on January 23, 2013 - 9:17pm.

I that was actually a fairly scary dose of reality, I am actually in the camp that agrees with the vast majority of his analysis.

And yet, I have not paid all that much attention to Jim Quinn in the past.

I will be sure to pay closer attention to him in the future.

My favorite line of his in that entire piece,

was :

“Japan is just a bug looking for a windshield.”

That one made me laugh out loud.

It's always fun when you can find a little bit a humor in such a tragic story.

California Lawyer's picture

Current Events - Random? And Prepping.

Submitted by California Lawyer on January 23, 2013 - 9:18pm.
Lenny Breuer, Asst Atty General - gets boot, why now? Why not way back, he could have taken the fall for Holder and then that would have been that.  Why now?  His actions in pushing LIBOR investigation?  Is he being rewarded for stonewalling any criminal cases, or being punished for investigating the LIBOR mess?  This is not adding up in my mind at all.
 
Hilary Rodham Clinton - testy exchange before Congress; shrill as usual, but how does this make her look presidential?  She had to have been told to take the heat for Obummer, for the illegal CIA operation of trying to funnel guns to militants re the Syrian uprising/civil-war, and has resisted this effort to besmirch her reputation.  She HAS to know this is a price to pay and she HATES it.  What is the angle here?  How hard would it have been for her to simply acknowledge her mistakes, apologize, say “yes sir, sorry” then move on?  Why the defiance?  A true leader takes the blame but none of the credit.
 
Is any of this related to silver prices moving up, possible shortages?
 
Is this just second term shakeouts?  Is Timmy “Beavis” Geithner leaving something to watch?  What about the Engle appointment at Dept of Defense, how does this play into the picture?
 
Is the Mali situation about gold to repay the Germans, or something else?
 
The latest gun control situation has resulted in MASSIVE arming of the American populace, with “assault weapons” and plenty of ammo such that there are shortages.  There are no shortages of M1A ammo [7.62 x/ 51 mm NATO] for bulk purchases, which at this point in time, cost the same as AR-15 [5.56 NATO] ammo--if 5.56 ammo can even be found in bulk.
 
Did the powers that be miscalculate the Aurora and Sandy Hook situation and have the gun control effort backfire?  Or, was it done on purpose, to arm the citizenry, for the eventual armed conflict/civil-war, for purposes of thinning the herd?  Damn, I am puzzled big time by this development.
 
Or, is it just that there is no giant cartel, EE, whatever, and that various factions are all operating with their own interests at heart, taking opportunistic moves as the timing presents the opening?
 
I am beginning to believe that we, of the red pill, enlightened stage, are at least 6 months, and perhaps 2 years ahead of the general population on preparing, which makes us able to see the moves occurring in real time, while others are surprised when such things happen 2 years from now.
 
The housing bubble: I saw this blowing up in real time, in the Inland Empire, only because I read MISH and some others, and starting really looking hard and doing my own thinking.  The mainstream media, for at least 2 more years, did not see any bubble, subprime problems, nothing.  New Century, the subprime lender, blew up as I watched and read; yet, NOTHING was on any news channel, news paper, anything that regular folks consumed to try to be aware. 
 
Now, the housing bubble is talked about like everyone knew, it is so obvious, how could one not know, etc.
 
So too were the early pundits of the tech bubble. Think of the parallels.
 
Think now of the Reggie Middleton’s, et al., who all called the RIM and Apple busts, 2 years ago, as the lone voices in the crowd shouting that these stocks are all fraud and hype.  RIM is past history, while Apple is busting in real time right now.
 
What other current events are happening, in real time, but that the sheeple know not about?   Silver and gold manipulation = check.  Treasury bubble = check.  Currency wars = check.  US Dollar devaluation big time = check.  Ravaging inflation from insane FRN printing = check.
 
When are these topics, which we discuss DAILY, right now, ever going to reach public consciousness?  2013?  2014?
 
I am no longer fearful, in the slightest.  I have prepared for two years, and now, I continue to prepare my mind and body for the upcoming turmoil.  We have time, but the past two years has made prepping so easy, so basic, and yet so satisfying, that I feel no compunction about current events because I can see them occurring real time, and I am preparing real time, yet the effects are not yet seen or felt by the masses!  
 
What a gift we have been given from this great site.  Thanks again, Turd, and all you other wonderful posters!
 
Now, back to the show.  Here is what I know: there are TOO MANY headlines of too much significance of late.  Something big is brewing.  I am paying attention to international events more, because I believe that the next big event is going to be worldwide, and likely war. 
Bollocks's picture

Look, it's perfectly clear, okay?

Submitted by Bollocks on January 23, 2013 - 9:19pm.

Bugzy's picture

Puck

Submitted by Bugzy on January 23, 2013 - 9:20pm.

Not sure I go with your banking explanation.

Interest rates are used in an attempt to keep economy @ Goldie Locks temp (allegedly).

Too hot- they put rates up to cool everything down. Vice versa.

Banks do not create money out of nothing. WE DO! for it is our signature when "borrowing" which brings this amount to the banks asset side. The bank cannot do this on its own. So it is we who create the money - the bank is actually the conduit.

We also then "volunteer" our labour to pay the bank interest on the money WE created. The banks say - gee thanks.

They do not want us to know that - the repercussions are way too complicated - FOR THEM!

Bugzy

Mr. Fix's picture

RE California Lawyer

Submitted by Mr. Fix on January 23, 2013 - 9:26pm.

Most excellent contribution tonight!

You raise many questions, that most of us are anxiously awaiting to see the outcome of.

I do agree that there are too many major headlines in a row that are getting very little attention,

and that something of a massive scale is growing beneath the surface.

I do agree with you that the price of gold and silver are tied directly to what is about to happen.

And by putting all of your thoughts on prepping, combined with our two-year head start,

you have most definitely helped relieve some of my own anxiety.

For that, I thank you. yes

tyberious's picture

Great Stuff

Submitted by tyberious on January 23, 2013 - 9:31pm.

Man what a community!

The envy of all PM boards and non-PM boards!

ROCK ON!

BTW, LCS report they had 2013 SAE's in stock, I bought 2 for 70.00.

Bollocks's picture

@Bugzy

Submitted by Bollocks on January 23, 2013 - 9:39pm.

It was never explained that to us that we enable the banks to create money from nothing from our signature.

We believe that the money we will be loaned has real value before we sign.

So it's the banks that create the fraud. We unknowingly allow this to happen via our signature.

If we knew what was going on we'd walk straight out.

SteveW's picture

@ old tradesman: What's a foot?

Submitted by SteveW on January 23, 2013 - 9:44pm.

"there will be no reclassification at subway until they understand 11 inches is not a foot"

In Old English measure a foot is the length of the King's foot. So I can only infer that there is now a new King.

Perhaps you USans should consider using standard metric originally defined by the length of a 90% platinum bar kept in France.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Here, this is fun(?)

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on January 23, 2013 - 9:45pm.
MODERATOR

maravich44's picture

some Bruce....

Submitted by maravich44 on January 23, 2013 - 9:47pm.

.

Bollocks's picture

Conditioning the UK for war. Killing is good.

Submitted by Bollocks on January 23, 2013 - 9:57pm.

Prince Harry: 'Take a life to save a life'

Prince Harry shot at Taliban insurgents during his time as an Army helicopter pilot in Afghanistan, he says.

The prince, whose five-month deployment to the country has just ended, spoke about his role as an Apache co-pilot gunner, and whether he had killed.

"Yeah, so lots of people have. The squadron's been out here. Everyone's fired a certain amount," he said.

"We fire when we have to", he said.

"We're more of a deterrent than anything else."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21136621

-----------

Look at that heading "Take a life to save a life".
War is good. By killing and continuing to kill we save lives.
Wow, the MSM programming is doing very well. Any of the sheep waking up yet?
Doubt it. They'll support this bullshit totally.

Mr. Fix's picture

Reply to Here, this is fun(?)

Submitted by Mr. Fix on January 23, 2013 - 9:57pm.

Thank you for that great video,

that was fun!

I laughed out loud at the $450 per ounce Max Kaiser rounds.

Any day now, any day now.

tyberious's picture

No!

Submitted by tyberious on January 23, 2013 - 10:01pm.

Not fun! The 1984 esk vision of Bama over times square is not comforting :(

Mr. Fix's picture

@ tyberious

Submitted by Mr. Fix on January 23, 2013 - 10:04pm.

It wasn't supposed to be comforting, it was supposed to wake people up.

besides, Obama playing God would just be another "day in the life of" for him.

I actually went to their website, just to see how it ended.

Kind of neat how they outlawed all ammunition sales,

$26 a gallon gas,

a little bit like the Atlas Shrugged movie,

and it could all happen to us tomorrow morning.

Actually, I felt that their scenario was just a tad optimistic.

In reality, there will be one hell of a lot more bloodshed.

Sweet dreams. wink

Bugzy's picture

Yes Bollocks

Submitted by Bugzy on January 23, 2013 - 10:12pm.

The contract we all think we take on when borrowing from banks is actually invalid. There is not full disclosure and the bank stands to lose nothing at all.

There are no debts - we just think we owe them.

The greatest con ever.

Bugzy

Sheetrocker's picture

@Mr. Fix

Submitted by Sheetrocker on January 23, 2013 - 10:13pm.

Yes, I think if things do go completely to hell, friends, family and like-minded people will be the most important thing. I don't know if it will happen, but if it does, I think it's possible that people may revert to ancient nationalistic or even tribal societies.

Look at our so-called 'great melting pot' of America. While we may all work together or shop in the same stores, we are mostly segregated by where we live. Different races and nationalities live mostly in their own neighborhoods.

This is not unique to the U.S. For instance, there is a lot of ancient bad blood between nations of Europe. Look at all the killing of each other different tribes in Africa have committed in recent years.

My last steady gig was running crews doing drywall and acoustical ceilings. Nearly all were Hispanic. I found out years ago that most Mexicans and Hondurans don't like each other. Some Mexicans I knew had a hateful attitude toward the  more primitive native-type people in parts of southern Mexico. I can't remember the word they used referring to them, but it meant 'bugs' or 'insects'.

All this is simmering under the surface now. If things get really bad, it may start to come out.

Xeno's picture

Sorry Mr. Fix

Submitted by Xeno on January 23, 2013 - 10:16pm.

Sorry Mr. Fix, I should have made that a private message but since the question was asked, as I understand it due to todays performance contract failure, inactive contracts have been brought forward and are now active and the insurance is covered.

I expect positive metal movement here soon.

Mr. Fix's picture

@ Sheetrocker

Submitted by Mr. Fix on January 23, 2013 - 10:20pm.

When things go bad, (like we know they will), it is entirely possible that all communities will be of a very local nature.

I plan on being the local warlord.

I will rule my territory as a benevolent dictator,

and the only penalty for malfeasance will be death.

That should keep the  crime rate to a minimum.wink

Bollocks's picture

Right Bugzy :)

Submitted by Bollocks on January 23, 2013 - 10:24pm.

S'difficult to tell how something is meant when typed up in a few words sometimes.

The greatest con. Indeed.
 

Mr. Fix's picture

@ Xeno

Submitted by Mr. Fix on January 23, 2013 - 10:24pm.

There is no need to apologize, you're amongst friends.

Just a few questions though, what is a performance contract failure, what are inactive contracts that have been brought forward? And how does the insurance cover this problem? And, why do you expect positive metal movement here soon?

Or better stated, what are you talking about?

Since I am just passing time waiting for the end of the world as we know it, and the  next big smash down in the metals,

I really have not been following the markets day to day gyrations lately.

Did I miss something important?

ag1969's picture

random thoughts

Submitted by ag1969 on January 23, 2013 - 10:28pm.

sheetrocker, i think the term you are searching for is "cock-a-roach"

Cal Lawyer, another thing in your list should be this notion that Obama is seeking Generals that will fire on AMericans.   If that is true this thing could get pretty ugly.

Bollocks and Bugzy, I think what we are talking about is "consideration".  The bank has no consideration if they create the money out of thin air.  So they engage in a contract with you but their consideration is non existent, and then they charge you interest on this fictitious consideration.  Fractional Reserve baby!  Green Shoots!

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