Narcoleptic Tuesday

With the holiday yesterday, I figured that today would be either Happy or Terrible. I sure didn't expect this snoozer.

Even though the U.S. economic data was lousy today, the metals seem stuck in neutral. Oh well. Actually, it's kind of nice, for once. A nice, bland and boring day...so far. However, I'll be watching for that same, evil Globex algo to rear it's ugly head at around 1:00 EST. Let's see if gold then drifts lower into the close and loses another $6-8 between 1:30 and 4:00.

Here are some charts as you start your week. First up, here are the hourly finviz charts. Note that since the miserable, contrived beatdown of 1/3-1/4, both metals have moved up nicely, contained within broad, upward-sloping channels.

And these daily charts that I printed yesterday neatly summarize where we are in the bigger picture:

OK, here are some other, random items...

Anyone following along in the comments to yesterday's thread would have seen this story already. It seems that the Indian government would like to discourage gold investment by its citizens. As ZH rightly points out, with items like gold, you often get the opposite effect. If anything, the post contains a very instructive chart that I've copied below. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-22/india-scrambles-make-gold-purchases-ever-more-difficult-hikes-import-tax-and-duties-

While at ZH, I found this fantastic new piece from JS Kim. I agree wholeheartedly with many of his conclusions, particularly the ones about "financial advisors". Though there are a very select few out there who "get it" and are actually trying to help their fellow man, most are simple snake-oil salespeople who are driven by commissions and fees. Years of self-reinforcing behavior have convinced them that they are the smartest people in the room and that their "advice" is valuable and worthy of your hard-earned dollars. http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-01-22/one-chart-explains-massive-risk-investing-gold-gold-stocks

Earlier today, The Doc (who isn't sleeping much these days so he has some extra time on his hands) posted this first-hand account of metal demand in China. Admittedly anecdotal, it nonetheless tells a story you simply won't hear anywhere in the MSM. http://www.silverdoctors.com/first-hand-account-of-gold-silver-mania-in-china-black-friday-style-mobs-scrambling-for-bullion/

And here's another reminder...Paul Coghlan is hosting a FREE charting webinar again tomorrow. The one last month received rave reviews for its value so I would encourage you to sign up. Like the previous one, this webinar will also be recorded and posted for later review if you are unable to watch it live. However, you still have to register to view it. You can do so by clicking here: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/499274952

And, frankly, that's it for today. Short and sweet. As I wrap, I see that the metals are moving a bit higher. This is nice but they need to sustain these moves. Silver is still battling its 50-day moving average, currently near $32.04 on the Mar13 contract. Besting that, its next goal is horizontal resistance and the 100-day MA near $32.65. Gold, too, is butting up against its own 50-day, currently near $1697 on the Feb13. Keep an eye on those levels with crossed fingers.

Have a great day!

TF

357 Comments

ivars's picture

@ sengfarmer -Assets backing the USD

Are possible to monetize, in gold, if you wish ( or someone). I do not know that monetized value, has someone calculated, but it is real otherwise no one would use USD as reserve currency and the whole international monetary system would not be tied to the USG treasury issuance and implicit rating . These assets will not disappear all at once. Some of them may even increase in value in gold, if properly managed, and the whole sum of these assets may increase as well, if optimal mix of strategies /actions is found. Surely, economic actions with cash is not the strongest option the USA has. And, not only the USA but all creditors who has assets  ( loans) issued in USD will see that the value of USD does not drop vs. gold too fast. Exponential with corrections is the best they have done so far, but may be for some time they can do better as the threat of collapse of world financial system gets more real. 

These assets are ( main ones):

First, nearly all commodities are priced and settled in dollars. Much international trade is invoiced in U.S. dollars, even when the United States is not the source or destination of the goods or services involved in the transaction.

Second, the United States has the largest, most liquid and most transparent financial markets in the world.

Third, many countries, including several with significant international reserves, rely on the U.S. for military protection.

Fourth, certain mercantilist economies rely on the U.S. as a destination for their exports. These countries manage their exchange rates against the U.S. dollar in order to keep domestic costs low, thereby accumulating large dollar reserve balances.

Finally, since a high proportion of the external liabilities of many countries are U.S. dollar-denominated, holding reserves as dollars is a form of asset-liability matching

Monetize them in gold and one will get the monetary current mark to market value of these assets. Obviously, for last 12 years they are falling short of USG debt increase, i.e the USG spends more than their assets are worth, but they were OK before 2001 and 1999 when EUR appeared.  So one  negative was losing trade and reserve volumes to EUR, another major blunder- the start of the war on terror marked either a very sharp and long term, or bad, or badly executed strategy for the USA, and USD, when the debt increase was not compensated by similar increase in those USA assets. The world was not as scared of terrorism as the USA wanted/hoped  it to become. In one hand, perfect enemy- worldwide, on other hand, limited damage potential, more like a natural accident, and a small one. Insurance company can deal with that  damage ( sorry, i am deliberately exaggerating to make the point) . But perhaps there is a longer term thinking at work, at least it works for turning the USA itself into a police state to avoid political instability , whose opposite is also an asset backing USD. There might be more.

Before 1999, it mostly was. The USA assets and debt were kept in balance, so the price of gold was calm.

Now the one asset which can grow in value is need for the USA military protection- not war, which is costly , but need for protection . That does not cost much, as the USA military already exist, all what is needed is to increase tensions in the world for this asset to get more valuable. That is already ongoing beyond war on terror- an obvious case Japan-China tension graduate but not abating in direction of increase.

Nick Elway's picture

Cubish, talk of nickels and pre-1982 pennies

Perhaps this approach...

I talk in line about nickels (worth more than 5 cents, they'll quit making them soon, say "I never spend a nickel, I save them"(it is true))  When the clerk tries to do me a favor by rounding to the dime I say "I'd rather have the pennies and nickels, they are worth more."

I sort through the pennies I am given in change, right there in line.  Say out loud that I saw an Ebay auction where $100 face of pre-1982 pennies went for $185 plus shipping.  When I find a pre-1982 penny I thank the clerk "You know that is worth 3 cents!"

Those that want to hear may pay attention (and occasionally a conversation ensues), the others (vast majority) dismiss me as a wackjob coin collector.  I'm trusting no home invasions for nickels and pennies.

That's the Nick Elway

Keg's picture

Looking for ammo?

I want to echo what ancientmoney said.  The time to buy ammo, in quantity, was years ago.  Use this as a lesson for all.  What are you likely to need in the future that everyone else will want at the same time?  Food, energy sources, way to purify water, medical supplies, etc.   Prioritize the list and start stacking. 

If you can wait, I think you will see the ammo supply increase and the cost starting to decrease in 6-12 months.  Another option is to learn to reload and buy the components.  It is not hard and I find it therapeutic.   

Big Buffalo's picture

Ammo

Keg: If you can wait, I think you will see the ammo supply increase and the cost starting to decrease in 6-12 months.  Another option is to learn to reload and buy the components.  It is not hard and I find it therapeutic. 

I'll just add: 1) if you have none, then get some 2) if you have tons, sell some and take the profit. If you could get 2x-3x your cost, why not.

Turd Ferguson's picture

From Miles Franklink

MODERATOR

The first 10 minutes are brutally slow but if you have the time...

http://w3.newsmax.com/a/currency-wars/video_uwr.cfm?s=al&promo_code=1211F-1

Silverman's picture

Nice stairs

Daily slow stochastics staying above 80 level for 5 days. Really unusual thing happening here. Usually it corrects under 80 level then goes back up.

Katie Rose's picture

J.P. Cubish

In answer to your question about letting others know about silver and the coming economic melt down ---

KEEP YOUR MOUTH SHUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I had 300 ozs of silver stolen from me. I do not have the $ to replace it. My insurance company gave me $1000 for the loss, then canceled my policy.

My silver was stolen by "friends" who have yet to be prosecuted for the theft.

Bottom-line, it is too late in the game to be waking folks up. You are putting yourself and your family at risk by trying to be helpful.

When TSHTF you do not know how others will react. I was stunned by the theft and who did it.

Be careful.

Be wise.

Be silent!!!!! Others have NO NEED TO KNOW how you are preparing.

My two cents worth.

ClinkinKY's picture

I was going to suggest that a new TF acronym be added...

...BTFAmmoD. Alas, it seems that it's already been bought and there will be no more "dips" only shortageswink

achmachat's picture

that slow video...

when you want to close the video page, you can click on "stay on page" and then you can read the whole thing as a report, if you want to know what it's about before watching the video...

ancientmoney's picture

@Keg re: looking for ammo?

"If you can wait, I think you will see the ammo supply increase and the cost starting to decrease in 6-12 months."

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You may be right--or not.  Given the government's push for controls, they may put limits on how much and what kind of ammo may be made or imported.  Or, they may place huge orders for government ammo stocks (another 16 billion rounds, enough to double-tap the population of the world), and offer higher prices than commercial buyers.

Anyway, I fully agree that it is late in the game, and you may want to get while you can whatever it is you need, or might need.

agauinvest's picture

Ammo - wow

I stocked up on ammo several years ago.  Hard to imagine that I was able to get really good .223 hunting ammo for much less per round than bulk is going for now.  What has to really suck for the government is that all of this gun control talk seems to be putting more guns and ammo on the street than would have been otherwise.

ABQBear's picture

Reuters says...

... ASEs are worth $63? Yeah, they had to issue a correction on that... I don't think Josephine Mason is a stacker.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/18/usa-mint-coins-idUSL1E9CI02A20130118

Maybe an MSM prognostication?

Turd Ferguson's picture

Crude almost to $98 target

MODERATOR

When it gets there and begins to push $100, expect some bullshit SPR rumors/announcement designed to drive it back down.

AlexCojones's picture

Silver Spike Between POTUS Elections

I'm not a chartist but for my own amusement/ enlightenment I spent a little time looking at election day and the silver price. Went to Kitco and here is what I found.

Silver price on election day, November 6, 2012, spiked upwards on news that Barry O, the Greatest Living Gun salesman in American history, got re-elected. Silver went from $31.20 to $32.29. Oddly, that is about today's spot price.

Silver spot on election day 2008, when Barry O, then the Greatest Living Teleprompter salesman, got elected, went from $9.79 to $10.21 on the joyous news of Hope & (Spare) Change. Thus between election day 2008 and election day 2012, silver went from roughly $10 an oz to $32 an oz. reflecting all that newfound green shoot money I guess.

On election day 2004, on the glorious news that Dubya would win re-election, silver spiked downwards from $7.25 to $6.99. Our fiscal cliff was still some distance into the future, before TARP or QE of any sort, while BHO still enjoyed a pick-up game of basketball in the Windy City and OBL still enjoyed his morning tea over the mountains of Tora Bora.  So between 2004 and 2008, silver only spiked upwards from $7 to $10.

On the election year of 2000, silver went from $4.73 to close at $4.69, on the joyous news in Florida that our Uniter not a Divider would become the next POTUS. Thus between 2000 and 2004, silver hardly budged from a measly $4.69 to $7. 

Not much of a return in a dozen years. $4.69 to $32.29, right?  Thus, if all things remain the same, silver will conservatively rise to $225 by the year 2024, with a spike to $115 before the next election. Of course, the more things remain the same, the more they change - in the New Normal.

AC

Prize Fighter's picture

Brass catcher....ammo

Brass catcher....ammo stacker's best friend.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Fifth time a charm for Sylvia?

MODERATOR

As you can see, platinum is trying to break $1700 again. Will attempt #5 be the one???

btw, calling platinum "Sylvia" is another weird, arcane Turdism.

Whenever I print an hourly chart of platinum, I label it PlatH. This makes me think of the late author and poet, Sylvia Plath. Therefore, "sylvia" is Turd shorthand for platinum.

Which, in turn, makes me think of this...which was written about Sammy Llanas' cat. However, in this case, it's strangely appropriate as "Sylvia" does, indeed, need to be turned loose.

(The mind is a terrible thing to waste.)

Dagney Taggart's picture

Thanks for the Sprott Pt/Pd Piece, Turd

It's been our MO for years: Palladium and Silver are the PMs of "makers".

J.P. Cubish's picture

Pay it off in Lead

I hear you.  Duely noted.

tobydaniel's picture

My BS Meter goes on high alert when listening to Jim Rickards

Why do we listen to Jim Rickards? Why? No seriously! He works for Washington. Washington uses him in an intimate way. With that said, yes, there are many truths to what he has to say. However, why does he talk to the public if he works VERY closely to Washington and the Pentagon. Remember, nothing happens without a purpose in Washington. Can anything of truth really come out of the beast? He made the NY Times Best Seller. Why didn't Carroll Quigleys Tragedy and Hope? Its hands down one of the best books in the world! You can barely get a copy of it on Amazon. Yes, my BS meter is on red alert. Should yours?

ink's picture

up up up she goes

32.30, on GLOBEX nonetheless.

zyx5432's picture

Igiveup 2 - ammo

Follow this thread here:

http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_3_16/590111_CONSOLIDATED_THREAD_FOR_THE_DISCUSSION_OF_AVAILABILITY_and_PRICING_OF_AMMO.html&page=91

They are tracking ammo availability and if you catch someone's post quickly, you may be able to get some.  But ammo is going damn near as fast as it is back in stock, so you'll have to keep at it.  There are still some deals to be had if you catch it right.  I have a pretty good supply of ammo and reload as well.  .223 ammo is going for upwards of $0.80-1.00/round right now in many places.  Yet, I came across a deal over the weekend that was still $0.50/round...But it didn't last very long and will probably take a couple weeks or so to ship.

Texas Sandman's picture

Are you kidding, turd?!

Narcoleptic?!

ClinkinKY's picture

One brave man (veteran) speaks out...

...in Chicago, no less. (make sure you watch till the end to see what  the "anti-2nd amendment bald guy" compares the NRA to.

They are feeling extremely emboldened right now.

J.P. Cubish's picture

Existential Condom

Tee hee hee.  Before engaging in social intercourse, protect yourself or you'll catch what's lurking around.  Makes sense.

J.P. Cubish,

Alive and Solvent

Headswim's picture

New Converts

I wanted to share my experiences over the last two days. I'm traveling on business back to my company's HQ since I work remote, and stopped by at an LCS here to see what prices were. 2013 ASEs were 6 over spot (not unreasonable given the recent mint shenanigans). Turns out the guy read this blog, zero hedge, etc, so we had a nice chat!

Anyway, yesterday I was able to sit down with a few people I used to work closely with and spent about an hour talking about TEOTGKE, silver and gold, etc. All 3 of them were very interested and what I found was most helpful in bringing them to the "good side" was just pointing out the following:

-85 bil/month in new money printing

-recent decline in available silver/us mint outages

-showing them an ASE I bought compared to a dollar bill, letting them feel the weight and pointing out that the face value of each is $1.

-pointing out that even if the price of silver goes down, I still have the coin, and as long as I don't sell during depressed prices I don't lose money!

We are all younger (mid 20s) and they were mostly concerned with having to fork over $700+ for a tube or 35-38 per coin. I explained that it's not very difficult when you look at it as a 'forced savings' program. Instead of transferring electronic credits between accounts at my bank, I take the money and buy silver and gold. Not only am I buying tangible, real assets, I make it more difficult to dip into savings. In a bank, i can just transfer the funds out of my savings account and into my checking account online in about 30 seconds. This way, I have to get my stack, drive to a coin shop, get a check, deposit it, and then wait for the funds to clear. It takes way more time and effort and so I just don't do it.

And to bring it home I laid out my strategy for buying - shortly after we get our paychecks I go buy what I feel I can afford, a couple of times a month, whether that's a tube or two or only a few coins. Every bit helps and it definitely adds up over time!

I wanted to share this in case you find an opportunity to talk to someone who may still be asleep. When you keep things simple and give them a common-sense plan and action steps around it, most people will listen. A lot of people, even us younger adults, know that things aren't right, but don't quite know how to pinpoint it. They are looking for leaders who can put their thoughts and fears into context and offer a solution, and who can lead by example.

I have decided that moving forward I am going to carry a dollar bill and an ASE on me at all times. People are waking up and each of us can help speed the process along one conversation at a time!

Fat Willie's picture

Paradigm shift in ammo

I recall an awesome post from srsrocco about the coming paradigm shift in silver.   Seems we have just seen a paradigm shift in ammo and AR 15s.   I can only imagine the reaction of JPM to a tripling of silver in a month, like we have seen in .223 ammo.   What a great day that would be!

On the bright side, my post-Christmas Berkey arrived.  How sweet it is!!!

Road_Scholar's picture

Nice work Headswim

you sound like a sharp guy- already stacking in your 20s!

silver_eagle_coin_mint_rolls-Picture.jpg

TomMack's picture

treefrog

i would like to say fantastic on the Charley Reese article but it really got my blood boiling.  i am trying to lower my at&t bill and see approx 15 different taxes and service charges on it. 

was it really written in 1995?

Revelation's picture

Max Keiser on Alex Jones Show LIVE NOW

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