The Sunday Evening Post

Since Monday is a U.S. market holiday, I'm hoping to sleep in. To put my mind at ease, I thought I should take the unusual step of typing up this Sunday evening post.

The challenging part of posts like this is figuring out where to start and how to put it together in some type of logical structure. Hmmmm. Well, I...Uhhhh... Aw, screw it.

Let's start with the two videos. First, here's a short one from CNBC where the "talent" discusses the German Gold Hijinx and actually questions whether or not "the gold is actually there". Holy cow! Talk like this must drive the paper bugs crazy. http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000142033

A more coherent and helpful video on the topic comes to us from the inimitable Max Keiser. (Gee, I wonder if he'd have me on if I ever make it over to London? That sounds like fun!) In this episode, Max and Stacy discuss The Hijinx as well as a number of other issues near and dear to the hearts of Turdville.


Our old pal, Trader Dan, has become a regular contributor over at KWN and, in this latest installment, he discusses the silver market and the short term likelihood of this rally extending UP toward $34 and beyond. You'll definitely want to read this: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/1/20_Something_Substantial_Has_Just_Changed_In_The_Silver_Market.html

And here's something that I've been bitching about forever...The Globex. Simply put, it has become nearly criminal that "electronic trading" is permitted during times of non-existent, global liquidity. If I had my way, I'd eliminate this 24-our trading nonsense as it clearly gives an unfair advantage to the manipulators, who care very little about price and execution.

For fun(?), here's a sample of something I wrote over two years ago, on the afternoon of a particularly nasty and unfair Globex raid. http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/12/ok-now-im-pissed.html

I bring this up now because of what I saw last week. On Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, it was quite clear that some variation of the same HFT algo was running down the price of gold on the Globex. Without this intervention, gold might have been as much as $20 higher at week's end. Little-by-little, drip-by-drip, the "managed ascent" continues. All the while, the little guy who is simply interested in financial protection, gets screwed and robbed.

You may recall that last month Paul Coghlan hosted a free webinar to tout his charting services and the entire Coghlan Capital site. It was so well-attended and well-received hat he has decided to do another. It is scheduled for this coming Wednesday and you can register by clicking this link: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/499274952

And then there's this article that I found at ZH. The author claims that high margins are killing silver. That's interesting, I suppose, though open interest totals don't necessarily bear that out. I mean, they sort of do. If you go back to the heady days of spring 2011, the total open interest was about what it is now. What's slightly different is the Large Spec category. On 2/22/11 for instance, the Large Specs were long 51,000, short 11,700 and spreading 26,430. As of last week, they were long 38,000, short 9,000 and spreading 29,000. So, I don't know if this article is overly helpful but here it is anyway: http://www.econmatters.com/2013/01/high-margin-requirements-are-killing.html

The topic of open interest leads me to last week's CoT. I'll spare you all the usual gory details and simply highlight this: The Silver Commercial gross long position continues to grow, up another 1,360 just last week. As has been the trend, this commercial buying interest is prohibiting JPM from covering at their usual pace and is a clear "civil war" within The Cartel. Looking for a bullish signal? Chew on this: The current Commercial gross long position is 46,337. This is the highest it has been since the 47,797 we saw on....8/14/12...right before price exploded from $28 to $36 over the next 6 weeks.

Lastly, here are some charts for you to consider as we get ready for another week.

OK, I'll think I'll stop there because, if I do, I'll be able to catch the end of the NE-Baltimore game. If you're wondering why I've been typing instead of watching...let's just say that having San Francisco win by 4 instead of 5 sort put my fire out, if you get my drift.angry

Anyway, have a great Monday and get ready for the rest of the week. It should be pretty wild and crazy.

TF

304 Comments

Turd Ferguson's picture

And here is The Doc and our

MODERATOR

And here is The Doc and our very own "ballyale" getting picked up by another site: http://www.examiner.com/article/delays-apple-pc-production-points-to-growing-worldwide-shortage-of-silver

Urban Roman's picture

Mr. P Morgan

To tell the truth, Clink, I don't know anyone on the left-hand side of the political spectrum that likes Piers Morgan either. Everyone thinks he's a douche. It's a mystery that anyone at all watches his TV show, or whatever he does. 

Turd Ferguson's picture

And then there's this...

MODERATOR

Which comes complete with its own, handy-dandy chart: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1121701-is-there-really-a-physical-silver-shortage

swg1001's picture

Listen Here

Andrew Maguire is very bullish precious metals this quarter.  Just sayin!  If you think you you know more than him well take your chances I say.

lakedweller2's picture

57Goldtop

Tour Players Taxes:

You addressed retirement accounts.  Is that your only shot.  Weak.

Karankawa's picture

Two quick Media clips on their agenda ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Ntp4iv_s0dY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=8C6Wkkabcbs

I can't think of anything to add to a rational group other than the machine is exposing itself and the agenda is crystal clear.

Karankawa

Karankawa's picture

And here is The Doc and our

Turd, I want to point out something I appreciate as well as seeing it's of HUGE IMPORTANCE.

Alternate media members help each other gain 'market share', appreciate and support for their work while the MSM doesn't dare mention a competitor unless under duress.

Truth is infinate, and you kind sir are doing a fantastic job with your talents.

Thank you again for this site,

Karankawa

57Goldtop's picture

I didn't know it was a contest

Lakedweller2, I wasn't competing or debating or taking shots.

62% overall tax sucks for sure. My maximum allowable tax deferral is about $24k this year. What's yours? Phil doesn't have one, and really should STFU.

The middle class tax burden is terrible and I'm not trying to diminish its significance. But to your original post, Phil Mickelson whining is neither news or significant.

lakedweller2's picture

57Goldtop

Here is the point.  Probably the golfers have the most convoluted taxes of any occupation because of the earnings/endorsements in multiple states and countries.  If they feel the US system is more than they wish to deal with and overtime the PGA players elect to pull out of the US, then why not every sport.  Why not find those countries that are favorable to taxing players minimal amounts and move "all" professional sports out of the country.  Isn't this the same thing that corporations do now.  Who is holding the bag for all this, disregarding the massive corrupted spending of Washington.  It is a sign of another nail in the coffin of the American Dream.  We get closer and closer to being the banana republic that elitist have been driving toward since the Fed was founded in 1913.  Mickelson is merely saying that he objects to his wealth being transferred to parasites.  After pro golfers, who is next...apple pie, baseball and chevrolet?

No contest...just another red flag.

lakedweller2's picture

57Goldtop

Added:  Golfers are not bound by borders.  The vast majority of the rest of us may only find work in the local widget machine shop...particularly when unemployment is over 20% and jobs are taken off shore.  Who can government work over the most.  Those with limitations, those without skill, those that are elderly, those unemployed, etc...A system designed to screw everyone may cause those without limitation to look elsewhere.

Lumpy's picture

Don't stop believin!

Hammer's picture

Nothing set in stone but The

Nothing set in stone but The UK may well be looking at a downgrade after the budget in March according to a NAB man but DYODD

http://www.efxnews.com/story/16887/uk-credit-downgrade-coming-fall-triple-dip-recession-nab

TheRationalist's picture

Do You Think They Are Letting Up?

Mark Carney has been appointed as the new Governor of the Bank of England.  The following article appears in today's UK Independent, a paper best characterized as leftish, institutional and mainstream.  To anyone who still believes that Central Bankers in the West have serious misgivings about 'accommodative' policy directives then the following article will be instructive.  It is written by David Blanchflower, until recently a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, and it is noteworthy in many ways, not least because of his reference during the article to those concerned with the inflationary impact of QE as 'nutters.'  This article is confirmation, were it needed, that Turdites are doing all the right things. 

Here it is!

There are huge expectations of the new Bank of England Governor, and he won't be able to live up to them. But he could start by learning from the Federal Reserve

The US Federal Reserve has led the way in running a highly accommodative monetary policy and, unlike the Bank of England, it is still doing quantitative easing. Both have rates close to zero although the Fed has continued to make it clear it will keep them that way for ages – so-called “forward guidance”.

There was some confusion over how long rates would be kept at zero, given differing comments from members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

This was made clearer in the recently published minutes of its  meeting of December  11-12 at which voting and non-voting members expressed their views on when rates would or should be raised. One said 2013; three said 2014; 13  said 2014 and one said 2016. So not for a while.

Note also that the lone dissenting hawk on the committee, Jeffrey Lacker, is no longer a voting member in 2013 and is replaced by two well-known doves, Charles Evans, Governor of the Chicago Fed, and Eric Rosengren, my boss at the Boston Fed, where I am a visiting scholar. So the new, 2013 committee looks likely to be even more dovish than the 2012 version.

A good plan

The Fed made it clear in these minutes that it currently anticipates this exceptionally low federal funds rate will be appropriate “at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above  6.5 per cent; inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the committee’s 2 per cent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored”.

In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance on monetary policy, the committee is not simply going to be boxed in by a narrow measure and “will also consider other information, including additional measures of labour market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments”. So the Fed is targeting unemployment. Good plan.

That brings us to the Bank of England, which is stuck with a remit where it is supposed to keep consumer price index inflation at 2 per cent, but shouldn’t because of one-off and external factors such as VAT, tuition-fee and oil-price rises. The inflation nutters have thankfully been ignored because of the costs to the economy in terms of jobs and growth of higher rates that would be needed to dampen inflation.

The Bank’s incoming Governor, Mark Carney, has expressed an interest in both forward guidance and nominal gross domestic product targeting (NGDP).

The first is a good idea; the second isn’t because the Bank is then faced with the major practical problem of frequent and large data revisions, which make it totally impractical.

Capable Carney, who apparently doesn’t suffer fools gladly, has used forward guidance during his term as Governor of the Canadian central bank, when he was a committee of one, and this is a sensible measure the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee (MPC) should adopt. Rates need to remain at 0.5 per cent or lower, at least through 2015.

Few, if any, commentators have noted the practical difficulties of targeting NGDP, which unlike inflation or unemployment is heavily revised.

I contacted the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which was kind enough to provide quarterly data for me from 2008 on both nominal and real GDP revisions. Real GDP, of course, is just NGDP with a price deflator.

d3c49240-c772-43e8-af6b-4e6684b64def.jpeg

The table above reports, for the first time, the first published estimates of the two as well as the most recent revised estimate as of June 2012, along with the scale of the revision.

The revisions to quarterly NGDP can be big, averaging 0.25 percentage points a quarter and ranging in size from +0.5 to -1.5 a quarter.

The table reveals a major problem that the ONS has in identifying turning points and in particular the start of the recession in the first and second quarters of 2008, although it took a while before we knew it.

There was a real GDP revision between the first and latest round of  -1.11 percentage points, along with a nominal GDP revision over the same period of  minus 0.94 percentage points, so the majority of the real GDP revision can be explained by the nominal revision.

For the technical among you, this occurs mainly because Her Majesty’s Revenue & Customs’ profits data, which takes time to collect, were added in Blue Book 2011 but were not available in full for Blue Book 2010.

Get busy

Profits came in lower than expected as the economy went into recession. The third quarter of 2008 looks similar with an even bigger revision to NGDP, but there are periods when the relationship appears not to hold, like  the second quarter of 2009, where a real GDP revision of plus 0.63 percentage points comes off a nominal GDP revision of  minus 0.55.

It makes no sense for the Bank of England to target a variable that is subject to such large and frequent revisions, which are greatest at turning points such as occurred in the spring of 2008. In contrast, unemployment was already climbing steadily from the start of 2008 and picked up at the turn.

So a data revision comes out one morning, and immediately the MPC has to meet to issue a statement about everything it said and did last week. Personally, I would just adopt the Fed’s unemployment target of 6.5 per cent with the same other broad language about inflation and expectations. As Slasher Osborne has said so many times: “We are all in this together.”

Mr Carney had better get busy quickly as the big drum roll he received when he was appointed means there are high expectations that are going to be almost impossible for him to fulfil – and if they aren’t, the press will be all over him.

At the very least, much-needed personnel and other changes are hopefully already in train at Threadneedle Street. The UK economy Mr Carney is going to inherit is going to be in pretty bad shape. Let’s hope he is a miracle worker. The King is dead. Long live the king.

The author is a former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee

Ends

El Gordo's picture

The only question

you have to ask yourself is "at what price would I sell some or all of my stack" to determine if there is a shortage out there.  Forget what the experts say because they are always wrong; plus you may often notice that they are good at dealing but are not betting.  At the present time there is a shortage in my stack, so I'm looking to add to it, not make it smaller.  At what price would I sell, I don't know, but I'll know it if and/or when I see it.

Puck T. Smith's picture

Max Keiser

I have stated elsewhere on TFMR my opinion of Max Keiser.  I once held him in high regard--he is the person who got me staking--but as time has passed I have lost most of my respect for him.  I will not criticize his knowledge of finance, and he is probably one of the best critics of the US Monetary system, at least as far as someone who has an appreciable audience.  Like Ann Barnhardt, when he talks about those things that fall within his area of expertise I will listen to what he says.  The first half of the video Turd posted is a case in point. He's talking about what he knows and I'm listening.

However, when he strays away from financial and monetary analysis, he is as out-to-sea as anyone else who poses as a pundit simply because he a camera pointed at him.  He does not understand politics or economics.  With respect to Greece he has gone on the air encouraging a Greek Spring, calling for a coup .  More than once I have heard him call for a French Revolution style response to Wall Street corruption.  I think he gets a perverse pleasure out of the idea of blood in the street.  

To top it off he has dismissed the Mises/Rothbard branch of the Austrian School as mistaken.  To then have him interviewing Doug Casey, a died-in-the-wool Rothbardian Anarcho-Capitalist, just tells me he is an opportunist of the worst sort.  I hope he does have Doug Casey back on his show to discuss their respective views on government.  I will enjoy seeing Doug Casey, in his gentlemanly fashion, wipe the floor with that smarmy little self-important so and so.

Let the flaming begin. 

indosil's picture

Words Of Wisdom

knavechild's picture

I Feel Terrible

I feel terrible.  A friend of mine was on a facebook-post extravaganza about the football game tonight, and I had to go and ruin it for him by sending him the following video which explains how the social engineers use sports as a form of population division through a demented form of postmodern tribalism.  On one level it truly pains me to shatter people's paradigms, but humanity will never be able to remove the puppet strings from it's back if we aren't open minded enough to examine to which degree we have been programmed by the powers that be.


 

Also helpful is this article by Marcus Driver on the Sports Conspiracy.

Exerpt:
"Nothing is so permeating in American culture as sports. We are exposed to competition based physical struggles for dominance (a.k.a. athletics) from the cradle to the grave. Is this phenomena a manifestation of normal evolutionary needs for hierarchy, alpha males, and social order, or a skillfully crafted campaign of control and diversion by the ruling elite (the true alpha humans)? Evidence seems to suggest that the secret government has, once again, found a mechanism that pits our own human nature against ourselves, and provides the ruling class with a means of population division, diversion, and complete dominance of a large sector of U.S. Citizens (who in turn oppress the remaining citizens unconvinced by the frivolities of sports) through a demented form of postmodern tribalism. ... What the entire Sports conspiracy boils down to is diversion. What bread and circuses were to the Romans, the World Series is to Americans. How many assassinations are scheduled on the same day as the Super Bowl? Even if the media wasn't the puppet of the ruling elite, do you think they would go out of their way to report the real news?"

http://www.hackcanada.com/ice3/tv/crashsite/sportsconspiracy.html

All in all, just as we've been programmed to believe that paper is wealth, we've been programmed to be divided against one another to root for "our team".  This is one of the hard truths we'll have to learn along this path to awakening.   So while we're all sitting on the couch using worthless paper notes to pay for the cable bill to watch grown men run around on grass field chasing pigskin, the elite are using their magic paper to suck up all the resources and tangible wealth around the planet.  By the time it's all over, we'll realize we were watching the wrong game the whole time.

TPTB: The world.  Humanity: 0

The lesson:  BUY METALS.  KILL YOUR TV.

-Knavechild

El Gordo's picture

Knavechild

I think this was pointed out many years ago in a movie called Rollerball.  It's gotten much more sophisticated over the years, but there can be no question that it's big time mind control.  That's partly why I don't even have a TV anymore (the other part is that my house was burgled and it was stolen).

cwwang's picture

Read the Liberty Coin Service Jan 9 2013 news letter (page 5)

It documented the demand earlier this month on ASE and other silver products.  This news letter was dated on 1/9/2013 so before the guys at SD bullions documented their shortage guys at Liberty Coin already mentioned it a few weeks before it all happened with increasing in premium.  

please read page 5. 

http://www.libertycoinservice.com/images/stories/lcsnewsletter/current/currentnews.pdf

Silverman's picture

Who Really Rules The World?

Hammer's picture

This program has been running

This program has been running in The UK for decades. Farage makes an appearance but watch the whole video as it gives a boots on the ground feel to things.

ivars's picture

Keeping training on forks.

Keeping training on forks. This is a bit more conservative fork I have seen used for downtrend. I expect it to lead to a bottom around FOMC/January NFP , after few days down (31,7?) and than  up still this week (32,5?) , crossing on the downside with the uptrend support at around 30,4 on Feb 1, then switching back to uptrend February being good month for silver usually.

Silverman's picture

50% retracement would be 30.60 silver

61% would be 30.40

microwaveablekitten's picture

Duplicate

Apologies

microwaveablekitten's picture

Another repatriation request

Repatriation Avalanche Gaining Momentum: Azerbaijan to Withdraw All Gold From JP Morgan Vaults

Full article at Silver Doctors

 
 
indosil's picture

Something Strange At the Indian Market

Something Strange At the Indian Market just now...Gold jumped a massive Rs 200..about $20....might be the import duty stuff at work in India

indosil's picture

Yup....Ben's Friend Chidambaram at work

Yup....Ben's Friend Chidambaram at work....Indian Finance Minister....just increased the import duty on Gold from 4% to 6%.......trying to dissuade people from buying Gold....lol....insolent fool

Just A Regular Guy's picture

@ Puck

I agree whole-heartedly with your previous summation of Mr.Keiser. It is a pity, because it was his work that got me here, but he definitely needs to calm down. The last episode of the Keiser Report he looks really really tried/wasted. Idunno, maybe he needs some time off/down time? The comment about being disingenuous definitely resonates with me too....

Agree too with your comment about Doug Casey, I've only recently listened to the things he says, and interviews and what not, but he comes across as a very intelligent guy!

It's just a shame, Max has some great guests, and a good show. He should just stick to facts, and occasional craziness, just not all the ranting stuff he does that is blatantly wrong.... oh well whadd-ya-do? Stop watching I guess indecision

Peace

Excalibur's picture

Max K

I  often would like to suggest that friends watch MK to get another view outside the MSM, but don't because of his rants.  It's a shame because he covers a lot of topical UK stories, while most alternative commentators are US centric.

I propose that Lauren leaves the awful Yahoo format and does a show with Stacey.

indosil's picture

deleted

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