Pailin's Trading Corner

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daveyboy
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Redwood, absolutely, but for

Redwood, absolutely, but for clarity, I was simply suggesting that in this current environment of massive deflation, I could not envisage that silver price could head to $100 within say the next 3 years. Now, I could be entirely wrong about that, but there are so many flash points just around the corner that I now simply dismiss the silver bugs. Not saying I dismiss people on here, I guess, I dismiss those selling silver in one form of another is basically what I am saying, if they are suggesting exponential rises. It could happen, anything is possible but on the basis of likelihoods, I think not.

Lord Henry
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My take on the metals markets

is sadly much too mundane. I personally dont give much

credibility to the KWN school of thought, that would have you

believe that China cant get theirs, but meanwhile kitco etc have

no problem getting anything at all. This can all change , I agree,

but I remain cynical up until then. Chartz are ok for a snapshot

view, and give good short-term entry perspective, but do not provide

accurate longer term projections that are reliable enough to trade from (imo).

I personally dont really think the boyz and girlz control things that much either.

I am currently shifting from a neutral  into a moderately long frame of mind

for silver. There are still bucket loads of the  stuff around imo, but the 1hr -

4hr charts look strong, and more significantly  (for me), the all important

hedge fund community still appear to be favouring risk-on in the other asset

classes I look at for confirmation. Will be doing a bit of dip buying, might dig up

that pivot site again. GLTA  

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Lord Henry
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Charts

I should just clarify that I think that longer-term

(weekly, monthly) charts are very ineffective as

short-mid term (1 month-12 month) predictors ,

in mature bull markets such as the metals. I think

that a lot of slop develops in long bull markets, as

slothful investors have greater difficulty finding

compelling reasons to buy now, and are content to

wait for better opportunities, months or years away.

This is all logical imo, and not necessarily sinister.

Markets that have arrived at  clear tops or bottoms

are much better things to trade (from a profit standpoint),

although these type of markets one cannot  find every day,

so you are left coercing youself into trading something that isnt

likely to be a slam-dunk, eg the metals.  

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pailin
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I largely disagree with all

I largely disagree with all of you :)

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Bum in the libr...
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cliff notes

I need the cliff notes for all of this talky talky. . .  anyone care to brief me on any important points in all of these posts?  Who's trading tonight and tomorrow?  I'm just firing up my charts do start some analysis...  I want to make some money :-)

redwood
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Bum

These are the cliff notes!  It's taken me a long time to understand all this stuff and I'm still not sure I'm properly schooled.  Sorry man.

As to trading I probably will on the Canadian market tomorrow, but I only trade during trading hours.  Too early to say but metals at least have not gone down yet.  So there's a chance for good trading tomorrow and Tues. am.  WS (that's my short form from here on for we'll see, always the qualifier).

Lord Henry
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And if you dont believe me...

Just take a trip to the Kitco website. They've got

Eagles, buzzards, kittyhawks, Pandas,  Komodo

dragons, Kangaroos, Koalas, Boomerangs, Maples,

Molasses, Freddie Krugers...you name it. All available

in any size, colour and quantity you like. Order enough,

and you'll get sent some free ones too .   

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redwood
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.....................Bum

In case its misinterpreted my post while truthful  is supposed to be funny. :) I don't think it comes across that way.

Abraham Bernanke
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This weeks market update just in!

http://marketweeklyupdate.com/2013/01/20/01202013-market-update/cheeky

Seeking Alpha post yesterday highlights the paragraph below.

But, before you think this is some foolish game we are playing in attempting to short something as volatile as silver, please remember that our long-term money is now 75% deployed in long-term positions in silver, and this is simply a very short-term trade. However, it does seem as though we are now in pretty good company, as many of the commercial traders have joined us in this short trade, based upon the most recent COT data. 

Link : http://seekingalpha.com/article/1121711-silver-do-you-think-it-is-breaking-out

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ivars
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Me thinks we will see a

Me thinks we will see a slight move down today/tomorrow,  top now in 23-25th (32,3 - 33  , no charts) , then down into FOMC and payrolls ( Feb 1) (30,5) , then up again, its February:)

Ok, a chart: A short term resistance on parallel just below the top of the fork  line  has turned into support and has been tested 4 times. The value for today is lowest 31, 72 bid. This is of course one way to draw a fork that ignores the spike in point B where it should have been placed as not really a pivot for trend. Seems to fit the trend better.

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ivars
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Keeping training on forks.

Keeping training on forks. This is a bit more conservative fork I have seen used for downtrend. I expect it to lead to a bottom around FOMC/January NFP , after few days down (31,7?) and than  up still this week (32,5?) , crossing on the downside with the uptrend support at around 30,4 on Feb 1, then switching back to uptrend February being good month for silver usually.

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Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation.

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pailin
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An Inside Look

Lord Henry wrote:

Just take a trip to the Kitco website. They've got

Eagles, buzzards, kittyhawks, Pandas,  Komodo

dragons, Kangaroos, Koalas, Boomerangs, Maples,

Molasses, Freddie Krugers...you name it. All available

in any size, colour and quantity you like. Order enough,

and you'll get sent some free ones too .   

Everybody with a foot in the door on physical should read this. A very accurate description of how shortages work. Promises made. Promises broken. etc. As I wrote a week or two ago, it always starts this way, at the wholesale level. Retail shortage comes only at the end, when it's too late anyway. What you see on Kitco means nothing. All orders accepted, fulfillment...eh, maybe? 50-100 oz? Sure no problem. 250k...nope. I've been on the right side of many of these situations over the years, it can be quite profitable to be the only house with inventory on the shelf. There's always at least one more sucker willing to pay 300% than you have stock to service. A beautiful thing.

Getting back to Silver Doctors. Let's look at what he's not saying (which is always more telling). He's not giving us the change in junk premium. That means it's not really a big deal in actual dollar terms (sure change from .25 to .50 is double, but it's still only a lousy quarter :) He's also referencing various large online bullion dealers, but not Kitco (random year, in stock) and not Goldmart (2013, in stock). And he reminds us that he has less than 500 so...go get 'em quick-quick (and re-read the last two sentences in the first paragraph above :) So far, all facts. Then the conjecture that shortages will soon occur in other products as demand spills over from ASE to xxx. Maybe. My opinion (only) - ASE buyers overpay (and my regard thus sinks :) Why? Maybe that tag on the back of your jeans really matters too? Dunno. Anyway, many will just wait for 01/28 and not spillover. They only want ASE, not some crummy Canadian, Australian or generic substitute. These are brand name buyers after all...

Conclusion? Only if Mint constraints on distribution persist after 01/28 can we start looking at this being a serious silver problem. The less committed will spillover to lower premium silver products and there may be a run through on those as well. Until then, still only Mint/ASE problem. The rest is just crisis profiteering :)

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Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell

HappyNow
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From an analysis point of

From an analysis point of view the questions about ASE's are:

1)  Where did all the demand come from?  (who is buying, and why)

2)  Will the demand be sustained or repeated?

The USMint uses the same production line for ASE's as they do for other coins.   They have to cycle between coin types sooner or later to stay in stock. 

I would be very interested in seeing the entire letter that the coin shops received.  It may contain the explanation from the mint.  So far we are missing the 'official explanation'.

In terms of conspiracies we are overlooking one that is strictly business.

The mint had to shut down to change over from 2012 to 2013  on everything.   They announced the shutdown ahead of time.  An enterprising large reseller could increase orders big time and create a shortage. Then sell into the shortage at higher premium.

One thing is for sure, once word got out that the mint was running low the resellers would order to the max and worsen the problem.  etc.   As Pailin explained.

During all this, hype builds and demand increases.  Potentially folks buy in to the whole worldwide silver shortage headline and futures rise too.

So....who is buying all these coins,  and will they continue?

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Strawboss
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Pailin - I agree.  We have to

Pailin - I agree.  We have to wait to see the aggregate level of demand once the mints starts selling Eagles again.  On the other hand - the fact that Norcini is talking about it makes me think its not a totally baseless proposition (silver shortages).  I am in wait and see mode.

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Rico
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What Pailin said.   So what

What Pailin said.  

So what if the Mint is sold out?  In the great scheme of things, it's this quaint, rinkydink outfit, mostly to keep dealers/collectors happy at government expense.  BTW, I don't even want to think about what a sinecure the higher-ups have there--ah, the many blessings of govt work...

Talking about ASE "shortages" is just ridiculous.  It's like talking about shortages of iPads: the producer always gets around to making more.  It's the old joke about "limited editions" --they're limited to how many they can sell!

BTW, my coin specialty is Chinese bullion.  It might interest you guys to know that China has recently set their goal to compete directly with ASE, Maples, etc, by vastly ramping up their production of silver Pandas.  This is on the order of 10-20x previous years--mintages in the multi-millions.  They are not having any trouble sourcing raw silver to make that a reality.

Happy MLK Day!

Silverman
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Daily MACD above zero level

Lord Henry
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Coins

The only thing that makes sense to me is junk. It's

got decades of what antique dealers call 'patina', ie

years of accumulated filth , sweat and grime, scratches,

dents and chips. It's 4 real. You cant just bury some Maples

or Pandas or Eagles in the back garden for 6 months, then

dig them up, expose them to ammonia fumes in a glass tank,

then put them into the washing machine along with some bricks. (It wont 

wash) . Junk. Its for those that dont have their own personal assay lab,

and that wouldnt  touch any of the internet dealers with a 10' pole.

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Wake me up at HUI 200.
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Bum in the libr...
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Looks like we are about to

Looks like we are about to reverse or breakout towards $33... what do you think?  We could go sideways a bit more I guess but the uptrend and the downtrend are diverging... especially on a 240 chart

daveyboy
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Okay guys, so I wanted to

Okay guys, so I wanted to escape conjecture and contact one of the main whole salers in Europe today who told me that they never run out of maple leafs, philharmonics and if I did want to place an order for 40,000 coins (maple leafs or philharmonics) for instance, that I could do it there right there and then and would be with me in 2 days time.

I asked the question concerning inventory and I was told that although that is a substantial amount, it is something of a drop in the ocean compared to their inventory. He did acknowledge that some coins do run out, those coins being the limited editions one, said that over time that prices have been rising but there was no shortage.

Yet I was told on the main page that to order over a tonne of silver would take several weeks to deliver.

Hmmm the hype is everywhere and the truth is out there all you gotta do is enquire.

HappyNow
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Thanks for the update Daveyboy

Good perspective yes

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