Resistance

Watching the metals battle horizontal and MA resistance made me think of our theme song at the old "Watchtower" site. Clearly, it still applies today.

So, where are we on this fine Friday? Well, first of all, those we're some perfect and beautiful FUBMs yesterday. And don't let the silly name throw you. The FUBM is an extremely powerful and important chart formation. Why? It shows that, even though The Cartels would like to rig prices lower, they are unable to do so because of strong demand for both paper and physical at the discounted/rigged prices. We saw a bunch of FUBMs back in early 2011, when prices were preparing to stage their massive rallies. Here are just a few examples:

Do yesterday's FUBMs signal that a similar move is coming over the horizon? We'll see, I guess.

Another bit of circumstantial evidence of the impending rally comes from the sales of ASEs out of the U.S. Mint. The biggest January on record was January of 2011 with sales of 6.4MM ounces. Yesterday, as we crossed the 6MM mark on just the 17th of the month, The Mint suddenly "suspended sales" through at least the 28th. ( http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-18/u-s-mint-silver-coins-sell-out-with-fund-buying-at-5-year-high.html) This looks and smells pretty fishy to me. Are they trying to mask and conceal demand OR are they simply out of metal? Actually, who cares?? Either situation is extremely bullish for silver. Since silver has proven to be a rare "Giffen Good" where demand actually increases as price increases, this overwhelming investment demand is just another, very strong indicator of future price.

But if the U.S. mint is having so much trouble finding silver that they have to suspend sales, how on earth can the SLV find and secure 18.4MM ounces (572 metric tonnes) in just one day?? ( http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-17/slv-etf-adds-record-572-tons-silver-one-day-more-all-2012) Pretty amazing, huh? Let's see, you can only load and transfer about one tonne at a time, maybe two if your truck is big enough. But the logistical magicians in the Custodial Department of JPM are able to transfer 300 truckloads in a day. Wow! No wonder they make the big bucks!

Even more amazing is the fact that this (alleged) addition brings the new silver added to SLV up to 650 metric tonnes, year-to date. On 1/2/13, the total tonnes in trust were 10,085. As of last night, the number was 10,735. That's an increase of 6.44%.

More amazing still is the fact that these (alleged) additions have taken place while the GLD has seen a huge drawdown. On 1/2/13, the total gold held in the GLD was 1348.92 tonnes. As of last night, it was down to 1332.61. That's a drop of 16.31 tonnes or 1.21% in just the past two weeks. So, silver is magically appearing while gold is disappearing. Hmmmm. What do you make of that? The most obvious answer is that it's all just a big charade and scam, but, what do I know? Who am I to question something that seems so obvious? I'm sure that everything is completely on the up-and-up. That JPM is custodian for SLV and HSBC does the same for GLD only inspires confidence, right? Right???

Back to silver, a Turdite named "Ballyale" graciously shared with us an interesting, if anecdotal, tale last week regarding his interactions with Apple and their production delays in producing Imacs, etc. Ballyale speculated that these delays were due to the current scarcity of available silver (though it's clear that plenty is available for the SLV). The good guys over at SilverDoctors took the story and ran with it, today producing a post that neatly sums it all up. I encourage you to read this thoroughly. http://www.silverdoctors.com/is-ted-butlers-silver-panic-imminent-apple-contractor-claims-new-imac-production-delayed-over-silver-shortage/

And this is fun. Jeff Nielson at BullionBullsCanada has written another excellent and well thought-out piece on silver manipulation and he discusses it in the context of platinum which, as you know, we are currently watching very closely here at TFMR. (Retreating from its fourth attempt at $1700 as I type.) Please read this article and support Jeff's site. He's a good dude and he works very hard, trying to expose and publicize the manipulation. http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/intl-commentary/26043-platinum-market-illustrates-silver-manipulation

Then there's this. On Wednesday I received an email from a longtime Turdite. I found it so alarming that I immediately wrote him back to ask if I could share it with the entire community. Thankfully, he obliged. Presented below without comment. Please give your full consideration to this, too.

Turd,
Thank you again for your dedicated service.  I'm a daily reader and a big fan.
I wanted to take a minute and share with you a very scary experience I had yesterday (Jan 15).  I keep a portion of my rock collection at JP Morgan Chase in safety deposit boxes.  This has been my bank since I moved to this town, I have had these boxes for nearly 10 years.  Several years ago I was given 2 of them for "free" as a thank you for the various accounts I had with this branch.  There seems to be quite a bit of turnover at the retail level and the branch manager that gave me these boxes left 2 years ago.  I have been to the bank many, many times since then and got to know the new people to a lesser degree than the previous manager.  I confirmed with the new manager that the same arrangement was in place, she agreed.
Yesterday I went to my JP Morgan Chase branch to make a deposit and touch my collection as I often do.  The teller looked puzzled and said "We've been looking for you!".  My address hasn't changed, my phone number hasn't changed and they volume of junk mail/account statements sent by them hasn't changed.  "We've been sending you letters for the last year about your boxes, they are going to be drilled on 1/31 with the contents sent to the State of *******.  Once they go to The State, it can take up to 2 years to get your property back after you pay the levies, fines and fees".  Needless to say, the blood ran out of my face.  The teller explained to me that my payments were past due for the boxes and it was their policy to drill the boxes and send the contents to The State after a year.  Needless to say, I stopped caring about the deposit and began moving the contents.  She assured me that she would wipe the issue clean and we'd be fine so I wouldn't have to move anything.  Yeah right, my pockets and quickly emptied briefcase nearly gave out as I left 20 minutes later.
How is it that I 5 pieces of mail from The Morgue each week but not these critical pieces?  How is it they'd just drill the lock and send the contents away (probably in the trunks of their cars to their homes) when my phone number and address is the same as it's been?  Why would they not just call me?  Maybe just debit my account which they do for the other boxes and nonsense?  I know most of these people by first name and they know me the same.  I often see these people at Starbucks and the grocery and we exchange handshakes and pleasantries.  Nice.
I thought that some of the collection in The Morgue wasn't a bad idea for diversification's sake and that they're probably the last to go as an organization so it was safer there.  Wrong!
Here is just another example of why not to trust banks and why not to let phyzz out of your control.
Keep doing what you're doing and we'll keep stacking and thanking you for your sound guidance daily.
"B"

Next, Jim Quinn has a great, new piece that you should be sure to read over the weekend: http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=46625

And, finally, the charts. I'm delighted to report that both gold and silver look terrific on their respective dailies. Yesterday's failed raids only made them look better in that both metals were able to paint bullish, engulfing candles, too.

Today, both metals are dealing with horizontal AND moving average resistance (silver 50-day is $32.03 and gold is $1697) and this has momentarily stalled the advance. Additionally, we've got a 3-day weekend ahead here in the U.S. and that usually means that there are more sellers than buyers hanging around. That's OK. I'm confident that we'll put these levels behind us early next week and then we'll move on to The Big Test. This event, subsequently known as "TBT", will set the stage for the rest of the spring. IF the meals can pass this test...meaning IF the metals can break resistance and get above all of their respective moving averages...the stage will be set for a very strong rally. Could it be a repeat of 2011? Possibly. Many of the same conditions exist (ongoing QE, tight supply, strong demand, etc). All I know is that nothing happens until and unless the metals pass TBT. For now, sit tight and watch. Get ready for some fireworks and unnerving volatility. But, be optimistic for there is much to be excited about.

OK, that's all for now. Please be sure to check back later as I will be releasing a special and very important podcast dealing with the German Gold story. I'll also have some thoughts on this week's CoT, once it's released at 3:30 EST.

Have a great day and a relaxing weekend. Get ready for next week and the start of TBT.

TF

443 Comments

4406PACK's picture

Do you think

They are going to tell you the truth

Remember Hind Site is Always 20/20

tailspin's picture

@ realitybiter re: TF

Morgan Stanley just announced something like 1,600 job cuts.

ag1969's picture

Burning Platform article was excellent

He writes like I think.  I wish I could write like that.  I also wish some sheep would read it. 

Turd Ferguson's picture

I see the same Globex algo is

MODERATOR

I see the same Globex algo is running things again this afternoon. I'll post another chart for comparison at around 4:00, once it has run its course.angry

Dyna mo hum's picture

Kuchek

That video is good. You have any more of that guy? I be liking that truth teller.

maravich44's picture

musical interlude....

for Haze.

Bill of Rights's picture

Know your Gun Laws in your

Know your Gun Laws in your particular State before you run off and buy some of those Silver Bullets folks. I know its sounds silly and I know they are NOT real ballistics, but I have witnessed the Moonbats go nuts over the mere site of anything that resembles a bullet casing. One would hate to be held as an example in these very volatile times and get arrested for something this silly.  I have seen it all folks and I am not kidding. Here in Mass just possessing an empty bullet casing without a permit is Jail time and a $10,000 fine. Again WE KNOW THEY ARE NOT BALLISTICS but to the Moonbat Liberals it is, and it can and WILL! cost you dearly.

Stick to the coins, Just saying.

Be well

Turd Ferguson's picture

This is a great loss

MODERATOR

We have lost a friend and valiant warrior in the fight against The Cartels.

Adrian Douglas passed away earlier today, succumbing to cancer after a two-year fight.

RIP, Adrian. God bless you for all your efforts while here on earth.

http://www.gata.org/node/12137

TreeTop Dweller's picture

Silver You Can't Buy It Now! Kuchek

Imagine if Jim Willie communicated like that!

In 57 seconds he says what Willie writes 12 pages on!

Turd Ferguson's picture

If you aren't familiar with Adrian...

MODERATOR

...here's just one sample of his great and invaluable work:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-gold-market-not-“fixed”-it’s-rigged

Kuchek's picture

Pastor Dowell 4 Dyna

Subscribe to his channel. ;)

When he gets to laughing it brightens my day.

RIP Adrian Douglas :(

Kuchek's picture

11 Silver Flashpoints by GreatestTruthNeverTold

Big Buffalo's picture

silver bullets

Totally placing an order.

babaganoush2307's picture

20 ASE's for $719...

maravich44's picture

@Turd..speculation and stones..

you might have already answered this question; if so, i missed it. Sprott and friends buy and hold for delivery.? Thoughts?..

Byzantium's picture

How did they do that?

With one eye on the somewhat sluggish price action today, I was looking at some articles I had bookmarked over these last years.

One thing that struck me, was how Europe was perceived to be a bomb that was about to explode any moment, and bring the whole charade down. For a couple of years, everybody seemed to be predicting that 'this is the year it all explodes.' I remember around the time that the ISDA determined that the Greek debt haircuts were not a credit event (and hence not a default), that Jim Sinclair was urgently sending out a message to the effect that 'the system is collapsing right here, right now.' That the whole European house of cards was about to collapse, was the order of the day.

At the foot of this post, is Alessio Rastani, interviewed around / not later than Sep 2011, presented to you here as an example of the kind of thinking that was prevalent for seemingly an age. He tells here the shocked news anchors on the BBC, that a collapse was coming courtesy of Europe, and that safety should be sought in the USD and treasuries. (He did of course win all our affections, by outing Gooldman Sachs as being a power greater than governments, and that they ruled the world). Rastani predicted in this clip, a global banking collapse within 12 months that would wipe out savings. It is now nearly 6 months overdue according to his forecast, and Jim Sinclair seems to be Euro bullish in a way that he was not before, or I must have missed it.

Back to Rastani, critically, and typically among the commentators in the blogosphere, he identified Europe as the trigger.

When the ECB awarded themselves seniority on the debt of any nation it bailed it, a ZH article predicted a bond market rout, due to investors rejecting a lesser creditor status, vastly increasing their risk.

It didn't happen; Europe is still chugging along, the Spanish & Italian crises came and went, the Euro seems solid, street demonstrations & austerity have now become an unremarkable scene rather than the doorway to revolution.

The European collapse, seemingly imminent, stopped being imminent, or newsworthy.

How was this achieved? Someone help me here; I don't know how they did it. The debt issue is getting if anything, deeper, and no policy solutions have been recognised as the basis of the seeming salvation. No debt union was forged with Germany as far as I am aware.

Clandestine money printing; was that all there was to it?

Magpie's picture

Molan Labe.......on POTUS limo :-)

J.P. Cubish's picture

Anxiety Attack

The bank was going to drill that guys safety deposit box!  I feel like I am going to be sick.  Has the whole world gone mad?  Thanks for the warning.

Admiral Ag Bar's picture

Brass Balls to put that sticker on the TOTUS-mobile!

A true American Hero!

AlexCojones's picture

Bank Theft & SDB

I never had a SDB at a bank. Always had - up until awhile ago - a measly little savings account. Burned twice by the TBTF banks and now will no longer bank with those wankers. Here is my own true account. 

They Stole His MoneyHer Money & Mine Too |

AC

opticsguy's picture

POTUS car sticker

It's Greek, not Latin.  That's the AP for you

SteveW's picture

Silver Eagle sales

After contracting to supply over 6 million pieces in January I think the two most likely reasons for suspending sales until January 28th are:

1. The production line is running at capacity i.e. cannot supply more than 70 million pieces per annum.

2. They don't want January sales to vastly exceed prior year sales.

ancientmoney's picture

More mint ASE info . . .

http://mintnewsblog.com/2013/01/the-return-of-silver-eagle-rationing/

Treasury Secretary now decides what "demand" means for ASE program.

bucktooth's picture

now just need to order some of those silver projectiles.

After 4 months on back order, it has arrived.

Larry's picture

WHAAA

We Have Another Acronym Alert (WHAAA)

The Big Test (TBT)

A public service announcement and future reference without going to the Turdism section (APSAAFRWGTTTS)

ancientmoney's picture

RIP, Adrian Douglas . . .

"GATA hopes to publish obituary and funeral information soon and will rededicate itself to the ideals we shared."

GATA has spearheaded much of the research and initial lawsuits against the manipulators.  If Douglas' death helps galvanize resolve, and helps GATA further its mission, his groundbreaking work will be all the more respected.

Thank you for your work, AD.

The Green Manalishi's picture

Here's another twat

More targeted measures than QE needed to drive growth

Money printing has “limited influence” on growth and more radical measures are needed to stimulate the economy, the newest member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting committee has warned.

Ian McCafferty, who joined the Monetary Policy Committee in September, said quantitative easing is no longer as effective as it was, and that any increase to the current £375bn stimulus programme should be “carefully” considered because the policy is “not costless” and may have “inflationary consequences”.

Instead, he suggested that new policies should target specific problems in the economy, in the same way as Funding for Lending was set up to address the shortage of cheap credit.

“We need to be open to considering other unorthodox means to conduct monetary policy if they become necessary,” Mr McCafferty told Bloomberg.

“If [the coming year] is not starting to improve as we expect, then I think we would need to consider what are the very specific problems that still exist in the economy and to what extent can very targeted monetary policy measures deal with very specific problems.”

More: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9811189/More-targeted-measures-than-QE-needed-to-drive-growth.html

Just another twat who wants to prop things up, whichever way you put it.

Urban Roman's picture

@GM,

Thanks for linking that. 

Ian McCafferty: "Moar Central Planning is what we need!"

... because the problems incurred by central planning are always resolved by central planning ...
(I know, right?)

/sarc

Bollocks's picture

@Byzantium

Europe and the UK are in a worse mess than they've ever been. It's just that little is being reported on the MSM right now.

The debts are as bad as ever and increasing and the economies of the various countries are totally screwed. Nothing has been fixed because a fix doesn't exist - it's all gone way too far. Ok, Mervyn King decided not to extend QE recently. But he will have to again soon. You HAVE to keep adding to the debt or it all collapses. And then it all collapses from all the debt.

2 years is a short time in the scheme of things. Give it a bit more time and we'll see just how strong the Euro and sterling really are. A collapse is absolutely inevitable.

 

Urban Roman's picture

@ Bollocks,

Hey, don't laugh, Chihuahuas bite! This I know from personal experience. 

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