A Glorious FUBM

Well, that was fun, wasn't it?

Once again, there sure is a lot to talk about today. I was just about ready to start typing about an hour ago and then this FUBM developed and ruined all my pretty charts. Shucks. That's OK, though. I'll take it. And for those neo-Turdites out there wondering what the heck "FUBM" means, please consult the Turdisms page for an explanation: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/glossary

Now, before we get started, we need to re-visit yesterday. Ole Turd got quite a bit of pub with his "German Gold Hijinx" post and the last 24 hours has brought all kinds of howling over the 8-year, German repatriation schedule. No sense in going through it all again but here's a reprint of the most important paragraphs. Please give this your full consideration:

However, you could also choose to look at it this way:
In preparation for The Great Reset, the Germans do desire to repatriate as much gold as possible but they also don't wish to bring about The Reset any quicker than necessary.

  • So, they bring home "their French gold" but only do so at the rate of 50 tonnnes/year. Why? If it's just sitting in a vault and collecting dust, why not ship it all home over the next few weeks? What's the big deal?
  • And why leave "their English gold" untouched? Is it because all gold stored at the BoE can be leased, hypothecated and rehypothecated many times over, thereby making reclaiming it impossible?
  • And why bring back just 300 tonnes of "their American gold", again over the next 8 years? It shouldn't be that big of a deal to pull up a few pallets of "barbarous relic" from below the streets of lower Manhattan, drive it over to JFK and load it onto an airplane bound for Frankfurt. Should it?

Hmmmm. Maybe, just maybe, their French gold is long gone and the Frenchy-French need some time to come up with new supply to pay them back? ( http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/12/22/ozabs-mali-gold-idAFJOE5BL01520091222) Maybe the English gold has all been shipped to China and other points East, where it has been resmelted into kilo bars with official Chinese insignia? ( http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3924/gonefor-good) And maybe, just maybe, the American gold is nothing but paper certificates and IOUs, no more valuable than claims on the GLD? ( http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/10/25_James_Turk_-_The_Entire_German_Gold_Hoard_Is_Gone.html)

OK, back to today. Lots and lots to cover but very little time as it is already 11:10 EST as I type. Sorry if this seems scatter-shot but here you go.

First of all, the raid and the FUBM. Andy and The Army were all over this, well before it happened. He was expecting an "algo-gamed" dip on the claims data and he got it. He then expected large physical allocations on the drop in price because there were central bank orders waiting to be filled on a dip. He got that, too. As these allocations became clear at the PM fix, bullion banks were forced to buy paper and UP she went. And here we are. In silver, the FUBM was even more pronounced since it began from a level that was just below a bevy of buy-stops that we'd suspected all week were in place just above $31.55-31.60. All in all, a very fun morning.

Here are the updated 8-hour charts for gold and silver. Note that both metals continue to trend off of the bottoms made in late December and on 1/3 - 1/4. This is some very nice action here. Let's look to consolidate these gains a bit and then move a little higher. The next, main tests will be 1690-95 and 32.00-32.20. Maybe tomorrow? Monday?

Helping to push things along has been a further rise in crude. Having moved through $94, IF it can hang tough here, it will likely begin a move toward $98-100.

And platinum continues to look strong. It has had some trouble with the $1700 level all week but it doesn't appear to be giving up. Watch this metal closely over the next few days. A burst of strength through $1700 will undoubtedly help supply some extra bids for gold and silver.

Keep an eye on the Yen, too. Hard to predict the ultimate bottom of this historic decline but it sure doesn't look like it's over yet. Additionally, soon other CBs may have to devalue even more in order to "keep up" with the BoJ and the race to the bottom will accelerate.

"While the dog returns to his vomit, the sow remains in her mire"...

And here's something else that has been overlooked. On 1/2/13, the total alleged inventory of gold at the GLD was 1349.92 metric tonnes. As of last night, it was 1334.42 metric tonnes. Hmmmm. Where on earth do you suppose this 15.5 metric tonnes of gold went? I mean, shit, Germany has to wait eight freaking years to get just a little bit of their gold back from France the the U.S. but 15.5 mts can be systematically yanked from the GLD and no one bats an eye...even while price has been rallying. Remarkable.

Finally, you've got to check this link from ZH. It discusses the fallacy of BLS seasonal adjustments. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-17/chart-day-housing-starts-adjusted-vs-unadjusted These charts, ripped from the post, tell you all you need to know about MOPE and SPIN and how hopelessly f'd up and manipulated our entire financial system has become. Try not to burst out laughing as I did but don't don't feel badly if you do...

As I close, I see that demand for paper metal continues in New York and price is beginning to extend higher once again. This is, of course, very nice to see and bodes well for the short-term. Have a great day!

TF

1:45 pm EST UPDATE:

A late session surge in gold was finally enough to make Blythe shout "GENUG!" and bring to a halt the rally for today. Note that price stopped right at:

  • Expected resistance near $1695 &
  • The usual Cartel Cap of a 1% daily gain

For now, let's just continue to hold and consolidate before we make a concerted run on $1695 and $32.

TF

335 Comments

Turd Ferguson's picture

Uhhhh.........

MODERATOR
Big Buffalo's picture

Here comes the Smackdown

silver66's picture

China daily

If you believe their numbers angry then is in line with PIMCO's views

http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2013-01/18/content_16138364.htm

Silver66

¤'s picture

gold

Here we go. 1695 retest coming soon.

For each action there is an equal and opposite reaction....unless it's in a steered market. Anything is possible at 9:15-9:30

Mr. Fix's picture

RE, Uhhhh......... Submitted by Turd Ferguson

Sorry, I did not realize we were that far ahead of the curve here. That was a brand-new post on Zero Hedge. 

silver66's picture

Canadian silver market report

Received this e-mail form a fellow stacker this morning, thought I would share with Turdites

*******
 
After we had our chat the other day I thought you might be interested in what happened when I "went shopping".
 
Dropped in to the Bank of Nova Scotia to see about ordering or even picking up some Maples. Scotia Moccata is purpoted to be one of the approved and direct supplier from RCM.  You would have thought I had asked them for plutonium!  Not only did they have none on hand(which I expected) they really had no idea of how to get any.
After a few embarrassing moments the individual felt obliged to take it further and I observed her frustration with the internal run around that she was having. You would not believe the difficulty she had in getting any type of straight answers from her own people. She even went online and proceeded to follow the instructions as you or I would try .  It went no where!  She read her own info that yes a person could proceed to the bank and order coin and or bullion, but from there it went astray.
 
After some round about surfing and phone calls she gave me a "tentative" price on acquiring maples of $38 to $40 dollars per piece, but could still not confirm if there were even more "charges" to be added. Not being a Scotia client made this a little more challenging, and she felt that I should contact my own bank(TD Canada Trust or Waterhouse as I am a client)
 
Now for round TWO    Contacted Waterhouse.   I know through a very reliable source( literally in house LOL)  that they handle bullion. In fact you can take your bullion to the bank and it will be purchased once it is verified.
 
So I ask the Waterhouse rep to quote me the current price of silver maples, guess what.....  I could not order physical.  They would only provide me with the dreaded   ``certificate``  So I asked, You will buy my physical but not sell me any......and at this time that is correct.
 
Not earth shatterring or life changing but definitely thought provoking to someone like you or I.
 
Just thought you might be interested.
 
********
 
Interesting report
Silver66
Keep Stackin If You Can!
silver66's picture

Canadian silver market report

Double post, sorry about that guys

this has been happening a lot to me in last 2 days

AARRGGHH

Urban Roman's picture

Another "Turd Hat" formation

.. shaping up? Let's see if the 10:00 smackdown leaves levels higher than yesterday. 

Mr. Fix's picture

Does anyone else smell a bull trap here?

I suspect that they are trying to get a hold on just a few more unsuspecting paper buyers, so they can clean them out one last time.

Nobody on this planet can stop them from selling a years supply of paper shorts any time they want.

Of course, the system will implode as  a result, but we all know it is going to implode anyway.

I just do not trust these guys, at all.

It comes down to this:

We've either lost our chance to stack at cheap prices, from here on out,

or we've lost our chance to stack forever.

Even if they slam the price down one last time, that will do nothing to repair all of the shortages that are now apparent.

I just do not believe they are going to ever allow the price to climb significantly, until the game is officially over.

Edit:

One other possibility worth considering, the game already is over, we just have not been informed yet.

Don't get me wrong, nobody wants an explosive move to the upside more than I do, I am literally running out of time,

I sure as heck don't want to be caught in the position where I am forced to sell at depressed prices.

With the premiums rising so quickly on physical, I suspect we are looking at the very end of the endgame.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Exactly

MODERATOR

I just try to point that out from time to time. Not singling you out, my friend. Just making a point. I spend a lot of time trying to stay on top of things and yet, every thread contains comments to stories we've already covered...some of them in the very same blog post, which really drives me crazy.

Oh well. For now, keep watching 1695 and 32. Not only horizontal resistance but also where the 50-days are. I'll have a new post in an hour or two.

treefrog's picture

pop! goes the silver!

there's 32!

Hammer's picture

If the paper price goes down

If the paper price goes down who cares ? The premiums on coins will just go up and there is the disconnect between paper and the actual right in front of your eyes - no mystery. They aint fooling noone.

P.S. If you really want to go cross eyed, charts here http://www.sgxniftydowfutureslive.com/index_files/DOWFUTURES.htm

Sneakdoggiedog's picture

Getting my arms around Things

After Reading Trader Dan this morning (yesterday's post), I am having trouble getting my arms around what I would call some counter short term trends.  Thoughts are welcome about where I am going wrong here:

  1. Trader Dan described a "risk on" commodities play is moving the metals complex higher.  One look at the equities market and recent economic data and you can understand that relationship and his reasoning.  HOWEVER, if you believe that 4th quarter economic data was jacked by end of tax year considerations and forward dividend paying.  AND, if you believe that the market is ignoring that 1st quarter data will NOT be like the 4th quarter (explains the bullishness), thereby ignoring the payroll tax increases, the Obamacare taxes, and the income and capital gains tax increases on high earners that is going to hit paychecks now, THEN do you have to assume that "risk off" is coming soon?  Using Trader Dan's thesis, his statement (taken alone) suggests that we are still in a trading range for silver and industrial metals (I typically exclude gold when talking about risk on, although it often moves in tandem as we know).  My thesis on the economy is that it is hitting a major headwind and the equities market has not priced this in yet, meaning a correction is due.  From that perspective, silver gets pulled down as well with the equities correction in the short term.
  2. However, if you also consider that other things with Gold and Silver are in play, like aggressive money printing, possible supply shortages of silver (the mint having to restock), the German CB headlines, and the blatant manipulation of the price by JPM et al, then PMs are to the moon!

I know that the simple answer is to just stack and not worry about the daily gyrations, but if we also want to trade, which is coming first:  The equities correction?  Or the further bullishness in the metals?

¤'s picture

gold

I like that zig-zag I saw at 9:15 and we're breaching 1700 today and holding it I think.

Things have changed.

Mr. Fix's picture

It almost kind of sucks to have to go to work right now,

this is really fun to watch.

I will be spending most of my day wondering how it all turns out in the end.

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com][Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com][Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]

Have a nice day, things are getting exciting, finally!

 
¤'s picture

3 bumps

That's three knocks at 1695.

Generally not a cool upside sign in algo-land. I still think we hit 1700.

Grublux's picture

Even if we get smashed

The physical will be gone at some point.  This all just seems inevitable...

They are more and more desperate by the day.

¤'s picture

(((echo)))

"Hello...is there anybody in here? Just nod if you can hear me?

Are you feeling a little sick?"

If I could C&P some Pink Floyd right now I would.

Pretty quiet in here for a friday market open. Comfortably numb?

Just nod if you can hear me ;-)

boatman's picture

risk-on price increases

risk-on DOW n GOLD up until

risk off DOW n GOLD down on debt ceiling debates then

risk on DOW and GOLD up on debt ceiling raise then

risk off DOW down but GOLD up on US downgrade [gold flips to safe haven PERCEPTION by those who don't ALREADY KNOW it is a SAFE HAVEN]

every E-wave analysis i have seen says at that point the DOW starts its final SECBEAR capitulation slide to 3-6000   or wherever  DOW/GOLD  ratio to 1 is.

ag1969's picture

DPH

Animals is far and away the best Floyd album.  How about some pigs if you know what I mean?

So It Goes's picture

@ag1969

Must humbly disagree regarding Pink Floyd.

Animals is a great album,  but The Wall is the greatest rock opera album of all time.

My .02

On topic - Keep stacking.

Stock_Canines's picture

It's funny to read and see all the optimism here

When only a couple months ago we were north of 34. Plus, there is always the correlation here between chants of hooray and short term tops. I would wager if you want to buy more physical a week from now will see far better prices. We shall see.

¤'s picture

uh-oh

This could get nasty. Here's the first wave down...2 more?

Grublux's picture

And a few months before that

we were bottoming in the high 20's.  If we can hold here it will be a higher low and the march continues.  There will always be pullbacks/smackdowns.

¤'s picture

the wall

1695 looks like a small one for now.

Song remains the same merits consideration. More of a concert film.

Love the wall.

So It Goes's picture

Platinum

Geez - look at the way platinum is getting hammered.

Kitco Gold Index - KGX Find out why the gold price changed
 

New York Spot Price

  light
    MARKET IS OPEN
(Will close in 7 hrs. 23 mins.)
 
   

Metals

Date

Time
(EST)

Bid

Ask

Change

Low

High

Buy gold Gold Charts

GOLD

01/18/2013

09:53

1688.80

1689.80

+1.70

+0.10%

1686.50

1696.40

Buy silver Silver Charts

SILVER

01/18/2013

09:53

31.94

32.04

+0.21

+0.66%

31.65

32.24

Buy platinum Platinum Charts

PLATINUM

01/18/2013

09:53

1675.00

1681.00

-15.00

-0.89%

1673.00

1692.00

Buy palladium Palladium Charts

PALLADIUM

01/18/2013

09:53

724.00

730.00

+1.00

+0.14%

719.00

731.00

 

Odd to pick out a single metal like that.

ancientmoney's picture

Silver shortages . . .

Ted Butler, whom I have read for 10 years, has predicted that an industrial shortage is what will stop the COMEX (paper) silver manipulations.  The article about Apple production snafu being a silver dearth may well be true.  The article is a couple weeks old, and now U.S. Mint halts production (again) for a couple more weeks.  Ted has said over and over that when the paper shackles come off silver, prices will astound even the most ardent silver bugs.

I have also read FOFOA for a few years now.  He comes across as a normal everyday guy who happened to stumble on Another's writings from late 1990's.  As I read his stuff, I came to think that he is actually a double-edged sword of sorts.  His theory supports buying physical gold but shunning silver.  I came to believe that he is a banker "plant" who would do no harm to bankers by directing people toward gold, as they had that proclivity already.  His main banker-inspired job was and is to direct people away from silver.  Because silver truly is the Achille's Heel of the fiat, fractional reserve banking system.

Because silver is (as is gold) a Giffen good, people ignore it, except when its price rises--then, investment demand can overwhelm ability to meet it--as now.

It is my firm belief that the PM ETFs (SLV and GLD) were created to help the bankers defer the direct demand for physical gold and silver into another paper ploy.  It allowed the bankers to absorb tremendous Giffen good (silver and gold) demand and use those dollars against the PM investor, and to corral physical gold and silver for another go-round in the paper markets.  They even use the inventories of SLV and GLD as sources of supply!  That is how blatant their manipulations are.

The SLV and GLD, I'm sure, has stockpiled physical gold and silver over the years.  These vehicles allowed the bankers to meet PM demand by dealing another round of paper, and (as JPM is custodian for SLV, HSBC for GLD) allowing them to control the huge piles of gold and silver put together with the dollars garnered from gullible PM investors, who did not understand the paper ruse going on.

Now, it appears those ETF stockpiles are the last line of defense.  They are being drained down, but still under cover of paper.  When the last ounces are gone, and the ETFs are closed down, and the COMEX halts PM trading, it will be the greedy speculators who are blamed.

Anyone who has shares in these vehicles at this late stage had best liquidate and get their proceeds into the physical while the opportunity exists, which may not be for much longer.

Corsair's picture

weekly silver chart

look at that huge move up  from mid Aug to early Sep - that is what appears to be playing out now.

I doubt it was coincidence that the lows of late Dec/early Jan hit just about on the 61.8% fib retrace from the summer to fall run-up.

sit tight, be right - this does not appear to be a bull trap based on weekly chart info

Xeno's picture

Greatest Pink Floyd

Sorry to disagree but animals and walls are not it. This is a precious metals site and the way that we're all "out there" puts The Dark Side Of The Moon in the No.1 ranked spot.

And besides, it's on topic.

Album artwork

TheYeomanFarmer's picture

Re: Silver66 / ScotiaBank

Silver66 - FWIW, I had a similar experience with ScotiaBank back in late 2008. Could NOT get physical silver from them of any kind, apart from 1000 oz bars. Went on for so many weeks, I finally gave up calling. They did have some gold bullion, but never silver.

Will be interesting to see if this is a signal that we're entering the same kind of paper-physical price disconnect we saw at that time. I finally did get Maples from my LCS back then...but at many dollars over spot.

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