A Glorious FUBM
Well, that was fun, wasn't it?
Once again, there sure is a lot to talk about today. I was just about ready to start typing about an hour ago and then this FUBM developed and ruined all my pretty charts. Shucks. That's OK, though. I'll take it. And for those neo-Turdites out there wondering what the heck "FUBM" means, please consult the Turdisms page for an explanation: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/glossary
Now, before we get started, we need to re-visit yesterday. Ole Turd got quite a bit of pub with his "German Gold Hijinx" post and the last 24 hours has brought all kinds of howling over the 8-year, German repatriation schedule. No sense in going through it all again but here's a reprint of the most important paragraphs. Please give this your full consideration:
However, you could also choose to look at it this way:
In preparation for The Great Reset, the Germans do desire to repatriate as much gold as possible but they also don't wish to bring about The Reset any quicker than necessary.
- So, they bring home "their French gold" but only do so at the rate of 50 tonnnes/year. Why? If it's just sitting in a vault and collecting dust, why not ship it all home over the next few weeks? What's the big deal?
- And why leave "their English gold" untouched? Is it because all gold stored at the BoE can be leased, hypothecated and rehypothecated many times over, thereby making reclaiming it impossible?
- And why bring back just 300 tonnes of "their American gold", again over the next 8 years? It shouldn't be that big of a deal to pull up a few pallets of "barbarous relic" from below the streets of lower Manhattan, drive it over to JFK and load it onto an airplane bound for Frankfurt. Should it?
Hmmmm. Maybe, just maybe, their French gold is long gone and the Frenchy-French need some time to come up with new supply to pay them back? ( http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/12/22/ozabs-mali-gold-idAFJOE5BL01520091222) Maybe the English gold has all been shipped to China and other points East, where it has been resmelted into kilo bars with official Chinese insignia? ( http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3924/gonefor-good) And maybe, just maybe, the American gold is nothing but paper certificates and IOUs, no more valuable than claims on the GLD? ( http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/10/25_James_Turk_-_The_Entire_German_Gold_Hoard_Is_Gone.html)
OK, back to today. Lots and lots to cover but very little time as it is already 11:10 EST as I type. Sorry if this seems scatter-shot but here you go.
First of all, the raid and the FUBM. Andy and The Army were all over this, well before it happened. He was expecting an "algo-gamed" dip on the claims data and he got it. He then expected large physical allocations on the drop in price because there were central bank orders waiting to be filled on a dip. He got that, too. As these allocations became clear at the PM fix, bullion banks were forced to buy paper and UP she went. And here we are. In silver, the FUBM was even more pronounced since it began from a level that was just below a bevy of buy-stops that we'd suspected all week were in place just above $31.55-31.60. All in all, a very fun morning.
Here are the updated 8-hour charts for gold and silver. Note that both metals continue to trend off of the bottoms made in late December and on 1/3 - 1/4. This is some very nice action here. Let's look to consolidate these gains a bit and then move a little higher. The next, main tests will be 1690-95 and 32.00-32.20. Maybe tomorrow? Monday?
Helping to push things along has been a further rise in crude. Having moved through $94, IF it can hang tough here, it will likely begin a move toward $98-100.
And platinum continues to look strong. It has had some trouble with the $1700 level all week but it doesn't appear to be giving up. Watch this metal closely over the next few days. A burst of strength through $1700 will undoubtedly help supply some extra bids for gold and silver.
Keep an eye on the Yen, too. Hard to predict the ultimate bottom of this historic decline but it sure doesn't look like it's over yet. Additionally, soon other CBs may have to devalue even more in order to "keep up" with the BoJ and the race to the bottom will accelerate.
"While the dog returns to his vomit, the sow remains in her mire"...
And here's something else that has been overlooked. On 1/2/13, the total alleged inventory of gold at the GLD was 1349.92 metric tonnes. As of last night, it was 1334.42 metric tonnes. Hmmmm. Where on earth do you suppose this 15.5 metric tonnes of gold went? I mean, shit, Germany has to wait eight freaking years to get just a little bit of their gold back from France the the U.S. but 15.5 mts can be systematically yanked from the GLD and no one bats an eye...even while price has been rallying. Remarkable.
Finally, you've got to check this link from ZH. It discusses the fallacy of BLS seasonal adjustments. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-17/chart-day-housing-starts-adjusted-vs-unadjusted These charts, ripped from the post, tell you all you need to know about MOPE and SPIN and how hopelessly f'd up and manipulated our entire financial system has become. Try not to burst out laughing as I did but don't don't feel badly if you do...
As I close, I see that demand for paper metal continues in New York and price is beginning to extend higher once again. This is, of course, very nice to see and bodes well for the short-term. Have a great day!
1:45 pm EST UPDATE:
A late session surge in gold was finally enough to make Blythe shout "GENUG!" and bring to a halt the rally for today. Note that price stopped right at:
- Expected resistance near $1695 &
- The usual Cartel Cap of a 1% daily gain
For now, let's just continue to hold and consolidate before we make a concerted run on $1695 and $32.