A Glorious FUBM

Well, that was fun, wasn't it?

Once again, there sure is a lot to talk about today. I was just about ready to start typing about an hour ago and then this FUBM developed and ruined all my pretty charts. Shucks. That's OK, though. I'll take it. And for those neo-Turdites out there wondering what the heck "FUBM" means, please consult the Turdisms page for an explanation: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/glossary

Now, before we get started, we need to re-visit yesterday. Ole Turd got quite a bit of pub with his "German Gold Hijinx" post and the last 24 hours has brought all kinds of howling over the 8-year, German repatriation schedule. No sense in going through it all again but here's a reprint of the most important paragraphs. Please give this your full consideration:

However, you could also choose to look at it this way:
In preparation for The Great Reset, the Germans do desire to repatriate as much gold as possible but they also don't wish to bring about The Reset any quicker than necessary.

  • So, they bring home "their French gold" but only do so at the rate of 50 tonnnes/year. Why? If it's just sitting in a vault and collecting dust, why not ship it all home over the next few weeks? What's the big deal?
  • And why leave "their English gold" untouched? Is it because all gold stored at the BoE can be leased, hypothecated and rehypothecated many times over, thereby making reclaiming it impossible?
  • And why bring back just 300 tonnes of "their American gold", again over the next 8 years? It shouldn't be that big of a deal to pull up a few pallets of "barbarous relic" from below the streets of lower Manhattan, drive it over to JFK and load it onto an airplane bound for Frankfurt. Should it?

Hmmmm. Maybe, just maybe, their French gold is long gone and the Frenchy-French need some time to come up with new supply to pay them back? ( http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/12/22/ozabs-mali-gold-idAFJOE5BL01520091222) Maybe the English gold has all been shipped to China and other points East, where it has been resmelted into kilo bars with official Chinese insignia? ( http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3924/gonefor-good) And maybe, just maybe, the American gold is nothing but paper certificates and IOUs, no more valuable than claims on the GLD? ( http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/10/25_James_Turk_-_The_Entire_German_Gold_Hoard_Is_Gone.html)

OK, back to today. Lots and lots to cover but very little time as it is already 11:10 EST as I type. Sorry if this seems scatter-shot but here you go.

First of all, the raid and the FUBM. Andy and The Army were all over this, well before it happened. He was expecting an "algo-gamed" dip on the claims data and he got it. He then expected large physical allocations on the drop in price because there were central bank orders waiting to be filled on a dip. He got that, too. As these allocations became clear at the PM fix, bullion banks were forced to buy paper and UP she went. And here we are. In silver, the FUBM was even more pronounced since it began from a level that was just below a bevy of buy-stops that we'd suspected all week were in place just above $31.55-31.60. All in all, a very fun morning.

Here are the updated 8-hour charts for gold and silver. Note that both metals continue to trend off of the bottoms made in late December and on 1/3 - 1/4. This is some very nice action here. Let's look to consolidate these gains a bit and then move a little higher. The next, main tests will be 1690-95 and 32.00-32.20. Maybe tomorrow? Monday?

Helping to push things along has been a further rise in crude. Having moved through $94, IF it can hang tough here, it will likely begin a move toward $98-100.

And platinum continues to look strong. It has had some trouble with the $1700 level all week but it doesn't appear to be giving up. Watch this metal closely over the next few days. A burst of strength through $1700 will undoubtedly help supply some extra bids for gold and silver.

Keep an eye on the Yen, too. Hard to predict the ultimate bottom of this historic decline but it sure doesn't look like it's over yet. Additionally, soon other CBs may have to devalue even more in order to "keep up" with the BoJ and the race to the bottom will accelerate.

"While the dog returns to his vomit, the sow remains in her mire"...

And here's something else that has been overlooked. On 1/2/13, the total alleged inventory of gold at the GLD was 1349.92 metric tonnes. As of last night, it was 1334.42 metric tonnes. Hmmmm. Where on earth do you suppose this 15.5 metric tonnes of gold went? I mean, shit, Germany has to wait eight freaking years to get just a little bit of their gold back from France the the U.S. but 15.5 mts can be systematically yanked from the GLD and no one bats an eye...even while price has been rallying. Remarkable.

Finally, you've got to check this link from ZH. It discusses the fallacy of BLS seasonal adjustments. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-17/chart-day-housing-starts-adjusted-vs-unadjusted These charts, ripped from the post, tell you all you need to know about MOPE and SPIN and how hopelessly f'd up and manipulated our entire financial system has become. Try not to burst out laughing as I did but don't don't feel badly if you do...

As I close, I see that demand for paper metal continues in New York and price is beginning to extend higher once again. This is, of course, very nice to see and bodes well for the short-term. Have a great day!

TF

1:45 pm EST UPDATE:

A late session surge in gold was finally enough to make Blythe shout "GENUG!" and bring to a halt the rally for today. Note that price stopped right at:

  • Expected resistance near $1695 &
  • The usual Cartel Cap of a 1% daily gain

For now, let's just continue to hold and consolidate before we make a concerted run on $1695 and $32.

TF

335 Comments

Mudsharkbytes's picture

Carl saw something really unique in that Franz Kline painting.

BagOfGold's picture

FUBM!!!...

FUBM...
 
 
Bag Of Gold
 
 
Byzantium's picture

@ Xeno

It has oft been mooted on these pages, that the derisory face value of some gold coins, facilitates a tax or disclosure scam, known only to those in the club.

$42 on the other hand, has a purpose to the Fed, but we don't yet know what it is. At its most innocent, it might just be a way to infer that gold is of no relevance, and it is not required to revalue something of no relevance. But I think there is more to it than that.

We'll find out, sooner or later.

PMBull's picture

Georgian Sniper Just a Disgruntled Stacker from the Past?

Russia’s Reputed Top Criminal Boss Killed
 
The man reputed to be Russia’s top criminal boss was shot to death by a sniper in broad daylight in the centre of Moscow on Wednesday, in what law enforcement officials said was a dispute with a rival Georgian gang....
 
....Usoyan was first inducted into the ranks of the vory v zakone after going to prison in 1984 for trafficking fake gold coins. He was subsequently suspected of money laundering and arms trafficking, though in his later career he gracefully transitioned to the patrician role of gangland eminence.
 
---------------------------------
 
OK, not what you first feared when you saw the headline, right?
 
:-)
ancientmoney's picture

Jeff Nielson's latest article . . . a snippet:

With a concrete example illustrating both supply/demand fundamentals and how markets are supposed to respond to those fundamentals; the extreme/serial manipulation of the silver market appears even more blatant in comparison. Now let’s look at the “fundamentals” in the silver market.

We can begin by looking at the absurdly low, current price of silver. This artificial/suppressed/manipulated price can be illustrated in several different ways. Relative to the price of gold, silver is priced at less than 1/3 of its historical average.

During the nearly 5,000 years in which humanity has been mining/refining gold and silver; the gold/silver price ratio has averaged roughly 15:1. Yet currently (and through all the recent decades of silver manipulation) this ratio has been depressed to 50:1 (or lower).

We know that this is a case of silver being under-priced rather than gold being over-priced through simply examining the supply-side of the gold and silver markets: the miners. Gold and silver miners are experiencing their second “depression” in five years – as the radical under-pricing of silver and gold has made it difficult for established miners to raise capital, and nearly impossible for the junior exploration companies who are the life-blood of the mining industry.

Indeed, silver mining is so severely depressed that despite a six-fold increase in the price of silver over the last decade most of the world’s silver is still produced as a secondary byproduct of other mining – while bankrupted silver mines remain shuttered all over the world, and new projects are extremely slow to develop.

Further proof of the suppressed/manipulated price of silver comes from the collapse of inventories, where global inventories plummeted by more than 90% over just 15 years (from 1990 – 2005). Despite the collapse in inventories, the six-fold increase in the price of silver has barely registered any reaction at all on the supply side, where mine-supply limps higher at an anemic rate of about 2% per year.

This is yet more proof of silver price-manipulation, as with any/every commodity market where prices are free to respond to supply/demand fundamentals, we would see prices rise to whatever level was necessary to fuel new supply and discourage consumption – until supply/demand equilibrium is reached. This is the literal definition of a “free market”, something which most of us have never seen in the silver market during our entire life-span.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/intl-commentary/26043-platinum-market-illustrates-silver-manipulation

The Watchman's picture

Hi Yo SILVER

hi-ho-1.png

gdog's picture

A fitting tune for today

ltcolkilgore's picture

I had not seen this before...

Perhaps this is old news to some of you here but I was unaware of this... If this was discussed prior to now I missed it.

http://www.gata.org/files/BundesbankLetter-03-30-1967.pdf

Basically it is assumed that the US would pull their troops out of Germany if they ever asked for their gold back, and leave them for the Russians. The letter was written to the Federal Reserve, it seems the Germans paid for US protection with their gold. Obviously some time has passed since then but I am of the opinion that all of the central banks are in collusion with each other, multiple heads on the same snake... I doubt many here would disagree, so whatever benefits one benefits the others, this repatriation has to be smoke and mirrors.

You have to either believe that they can get the gold back in the timeframe stated, which would mean that you believe they can keep the ponzi going for that long... Or this is just an attempt to placate the people of Germany and/or the conservative Christian Social Union (which is Merkel's party) to keep the natives calm before and when the shit-storm hits...

Either way we know the truth, this ponzi can not keep going on forever. Can it?? Then again... who thought in 2008 it would still be hanging on today? It is becoming increasingly difficult to tell the deceptions from the truth at this point...indecision

exiledbear's picture

And bitcoins now have the $15 handle

Which was last year's peak for them. Been moving up slow and steady, building on the gains afterwards too. You know, like an honest market, not one of these centrally planned zombie markets, where things jerk around at specific times of the day, like they have puppet strings attached to them...

Don't worry about your PMs. Like I said before, if they hadn't interfered, the price would've already peaked and we would be talking about the great PM bubble of 2010. Instead it'll probably be 2017-2020 before this finally runs its course.

TinHat's picture

beardeus

Maybe she is just a niece by marriage.

Turd Ferguson's picture

That's a good article

MODERATOR

I'll be sure to feature it tomorrow. And Jeff's such a good guy...he deserves our support.

maravich44's picture

@ Indenture....

I am only here to learn. Should I sell my physical silver and gather paper euro? if so why? if not, why not? Does silver have value? Please state your case.

Silver Spurs's picture

Did my small part

Took delivery of 32 oz. silver (to make up for the amount lost at sea)    Anyone use Monarch Precious Metals?   My opinion: Prices competitive, delivery fast.

Katie Rose's picture

I'm so grateful

that I found TF Metals Report.

I debated if I really wanted to spend the time reading threads from yesterday and last night. Something compelled me to do so. When I got to Green Lantern's essay on German reparation and Ivars' commentary, I felt my head would explode. As a matter of fact, I had to get up and walk around half way through Green Lantern's essay, as it was so brilliant I needed time to let it all soak in.

This is just a big "THANK YOU!" to all of you for enriching my life in so many ways. I know of no place where an aging goat girl can interact with so many people from different countries and view points. I learn from you! I appreciate you!

Thank you TURD for making this possible. heart

Nigel Black's picture

My mistake

You are correct, AngloGold isn't Canadian .... I got my wires crossed with Iamgold (16% of its production comes from Mali):

http://cidpnsi.ca/blog/portfolio/mali-rapid-analysis-from-canadian-perspective/

The joys of skimming an article too quickly.

JY896's picture

Noted analyst and interviewer to the rich & famous...

...our friend W. B. Seven and his trusty sidekick L. King bring us this quote from Big Ben himself:

A MeSSaGe To THe BuNDeSBaNK FRoM BeNDiTo BeN

Bendito is spilling the beans

The Bundesbank knows what this means

Their gold is all gone

A Central Bank con

Akin to their printing machines

The Limerick King

________________________________________

And some more details from 'Malgeria' (beyond home to some gold production, also apparently midway between light crude producers Algeria and Nigeria) -- US 'military advisers' arrive:

"U.S. military trainers are expected to arrive in West Africa this weekend to train local military forces to fight Islamist insurgents including those now battling French and local government troops in Mali, State Dept. spokeswoman Victoria Nuland says in Washington."

What could go wrong?

Dr. Fix's picture

All I've got to say is wow!

Quite frankly, I did not expect the metals to hold up as well as they did today.

Maybe the worldwide  belief that the Fed has no gold is starting to have an effect on its price.

And, maybe not.

Tomorrow will be very telling, the miners still have a lot of catching up to do,

and I do not for a minute think that the monkeys just simply quit and went home.

I will be keeping an eye on this development.

Al Huxley's picture

The Miners

The miners look terrible, and buying anything other than a very select few at the moment (and even those are probably dicey because of the general sector weakness) looks like a terrible bet to me.  They'll have their day, I'm sure, but they sure look set to break hard to the downside before they can rebound.

Missiondweller's picture

@Byzantium

This suggests a scenario, where Germany never had physical possession of this gold in the first place, but was accruing 'paper gold' as their trade surpluses grew, in the financial clearing centres of London and New York. It also explains how the gold 'ended up there.' It was just FX surplus, swapped for a claim on gold.

You're right of course. After WWII Germany had zero gold after the Allies "liberated it". Trade surpluses were in Dollars/Gold under the Bretton Woods agreement. Its absolutely possible that Germany's gold was never seperate allocated gold with the Fed but merely a claim on the Fed's gold holdings.

As someone else mentioned, it was certainly safer during the Cold War to keep "their gold" at the Fed. Of course Bretton Woods ended in 1971 but the Cold War continued until 1991. Germany likely did have an agreement with the US: we keep our gold with you and you defend us from the Soviets.

Germany may well be looking to the future when both the Euro and the USD are virtually worthless. Much like China, they will want their D-Mark, when re-introduced, to be backed by gold.

ballyale's picture

"The joke is actually on

"The joke is actually on anyone who mistakenly takes it seriously. I wonder how many calls Rep. Waters has received?"

Answer: LOTS. And from both sides of the aisle. The most from the gullible Tea Partiers and then from the "party on" workers if they had the skill or interest to get on the internet and find it were probably breathing a long sigh of relief that the party wasn't about to end.

The most interesting thing about spoofs, if written well enough, is that people will are willing to believe a lie as long as it is big enough (paraphrasing Hitler from Mein Kampf) and especially so when it has an authoritative looking script and gov't symbols attached to it. This is why once, gained the Chancellorship, he could lie his ass off knowing that the German people would buy it hook, line and sinker, esp. once he gained monopolistic control of all forms of media.

It is a sad commentary that our own supposedly free country is being systematically changed into a Goebbelesques parody of the Nazi  propaganda machine that most recently started during WWII and expanded during the Cold War and has flourished ever since from the start of the Vietnam War.

"National Security" covers up all their lying despite the Freedom of Information Act. Money, greed, power, lies and hubris and a carte blanche card against any and all prosecution of itself by itself rather than the rule of law is the lawlessness of the land now.

Think about it. We have US military bases in 175 countries around the world. What do you think the Founding Fathers would think about that? That's a rhetorical question by the way.

Bally.

tpbeta's picture

Bit of Ambrose

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100022332/a-new-gold-standard-is-being-born/

A new Gold Standard is being born

The world is moving step by step towards a de facto Gold Standard, without any meetings of G20 leaders to announce the idea or bless the project.

Some readers will already have seen the GFMS Gold Survey for 2012 which reported that central banks around the world bought more bullion last year in terms of tonnage than at any time in almost half a century....

zman's picture

I like Trader Dan, but in

I like Trader Dan, but in today's piece he said, "he is beginning to wonder if the Fed will ever be able to unwind its balance sheet".

He is kidding? I thought we all knew 4 years ago that was never going to happen,  and he is just beginning to question this fact now?

Maybe he is just entertaining all of of us, but still why even say such things?

Byzantium's picture

Thank you Missiondweller

I am not aware that anybody ever framed it in this way before, and you are the first person to really support the thesis, so I know I haven't lost my marbles.

The impression we have all somehow accepted, is that this gold was physically shipped somehow from Germany to these other locations for safety, when it is in fact likely, that all it ever was, was a paper claim accruing from trading surpluses.

If this is the case, then which other countries CB gold, is direct double counting of US gold?

Obviously, the spin would have been that this gold existed, and belonged to Germany. At no point, was it ever politically expedient to confess, that it had only ever been a claim. The 'technical' problem in repatriating what never existed, is now evident, in this scenario.

Istack's picture

Ready for takeoff?

I Run Bartertown's picture

The Late, Great 10th Amendment

http://tv.msnbc.com/2013/01/17/rand-paul-vows-to-nullify-obamas-executive-action-on-guns/

"Rand Paul is dipping back into civil war era vocabulary in his latest attacks on President Obama, vowing to “nullify” the president’s executive orders on guns.

“In this bill we will nullify anything the president does that smacks of legislation,” the Republican Senator from Kentucky said Wednesday. “And there are several of the executive orders that appear as if he’s writing new law. That cannot happen.”

Democratic Senator Tim Kaine blasted Paul’s comments this morning calling nullification “a code word.”

“Look at when nullification has been used. It’s been used a lot, kind of, it’s a states’ rights argument that gets used in times of great controversy,” he said this morning.

“The notion that we’re going to nullify presidential action when the president is acting pursuant to law, that’s just kind of this anti-government rhetoric that I’m surprised to hear somebody in government use it,” he said."

----------------------

Times of great controversy? When else would you propose nullifying federal directives? when it's not controversial? So, essentially, he  (Kaine) means 'STFU and obey'.

Goldcoin27's picture

fundamentals look good

i think gold will see 1900 again this year, or atleast 1800+. my silver PT is 40-50, wont sell any under that. 

Green Lantern's picture

US Mint Sold Out of 2013

US Mint Sold Out of 2013 Silver Eagle Coins

GoldSilver.com
JANUARY 17, 2013

 

 
 
US Mint Sold Out of 2013 Silver Eagle Coins

The US Mint has run out of silver eagle bullion coins and has temporarily suspended sales. They may begin allocating coins the week of January 28, 2013.

Below is a portion of the email received today from the US Mint:

The United States Mint has temporarily sold out of 2013 American Eagle Silver Bullion coins. As a result, sales are suspended until we can build up an inventory of these coins. Sales will resume on or about the week of January 28, 2013, via the allocation process.

Premiums are moving higher and silver eagle bullion coin availability will decline in the coming days.

http://goldsilver.com/news/us-mint-sold-out-of-2013-silver-eagle-coins/

Battle Beagle's picture

U.S. Mint sold out of silver eagles again!

http://news.coinupdate.com/us-mint-temporarily-sold-out-of-silver-eagles-1815/

"The United States Mint has informed authorized purchasers that 2013 American Silver Eagle bullion coins are temporarily sold out. This follows intense demand for the silver bullion coins since the initial release on January 7, 2013.

On the first day of availability for 2013-dated Silver Eagles, authorized purchasers had placed orders for 3,937,000 of the one ounce coins. This seemed to mark the highest one-day sales in the entire history of the program. The strong demand has continued with sales now having reached 6,007,000 according to the latest information posted on the Mint's website."

Looks Like Something Is About To BLOW UP In the Silver Market..............

Battle Beagle's picture

Silver Eagle Shortages

Doc,

I'm under the impression from market history that shortages cause even more demand, especially when it comes to metals. I forgot the term, but higher prices/shortages cause higher demand.

Green Lantern's picture

Talk about syncronicity. 

Talk about syncronicity. 

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