German Gold Hijinx

I guess it all depends on how you look at it. Either this is all on the up-and-up or it isn't. Either this is a purely political show or it isn't. Either the gold is really there to be repatriated or it isn't. It's up to you to decide.

Just three months ago, The Bundesbank labeled as "lunacy" the idea that German gold needed to be brought home. They announce today that they're doing it anyway, but in sizes nowhere near what had been speculated. Is this just a political trick to mollify the German hoi polloi? Probably. It certainly doesn't upset the status quo or shake the global banking system in the manner we'd all hoped.

However, you could also choose to look at it this way:

  • In preparation for The Great Reset, the Germans do desire to repatriate as much gold as possible but they also don't wish to bring about The Reset any quicker than necessary.
  • So, they bring home "their French gold" but only do so at the rate of 50 tonnnes/year. Why? If it's just sitting in a vault and collecting dust, why not ship it all home over the next few weeks? What's the big deal?
  • And why leave "their English gold" untouched? Is it because all gold stored at the BoE can be leased, hypothecated and rehypothecated many times over, thereby making reclaiming it impossible?
  • And why bring back just 300 tonnes of "their American gold", again over the next 8 years? It shouldn't be that big of a deal to pull up a few pallets of "barbarous relic" from below the streets of lower Manhattan, drive it over to JFK and load it onto an airplane bound for Frankfurt. Should it?

Hmmmm. Maybe, just maybe, their French gold is long gone and the Frenchy-French need some time to come up with new supply to pay them back? ( http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/12/22/ozabs-mali-gold-idAFJOE5BL01520091222) Maybe the English gold has all been shipped to China and other points East, where it has been resmelted into kilo bars with official Chinese insignia? ( http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3924/gonefor-good) And maybe, just maybe, the American gold is nothing but paper certificates and IOUs, no more valuable than claims on the GLD? ( http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/10/25_James_Turk_-_The_Entire_German_Gold_Hoard_Is_Gone.html)

Ahhhhhh....what do I know? I'm just a Turd. A dope with a MacBook. I'm sure it's all just fine. Move along. Nothing to see here. All is well. Go back to sleep.

Anyway, it has been a few days so we need to update the charts. Let's start with gold. Take a look at these two, daily charts. You can clearly see the price double bottom. This also coincides with an open interest bottom in late December. In the big picture, me likes what me sees.

Now check out this 8-hour chart. Besides all of the horizontal and diagonal resistance lines I've drawn, gold will likley run into some tough sledding near the 50 and 100-day MAs. The fifty for the Feb13 contract is currently near $1697 and the 100 is near $1718. Taking it all into consideration, the "all clear" for a rally can't truly be sounded until gold gets up and through about $1710-1715, maybe in a week or two. Until then, I just plan to keep stacking physical. I'm not going to buy any more options just yet.

As you might expect, silver has a somewhat similar picture. It came down in late December and then double-bottomed just below $30 about two weeks ago. Since then, it has seen a steady progression higher. Now it just needs to follow through. It is finding resistance near the highs of 1/2/13 (31.50) and it needs to break that level to draw in more buyers. Once through there, expect slowdowns near the 50-day, currently at $32.01, and the 100-day near $32.60.

That's all for today. I need to go take a little boat ride with all my guns and ammunition. It'll probably take most of the day. More tomorrow...

TF

387 Comments

Dr. Fix's picture

@ Indenture

I have also changed my strategies over the past few years, originally, I was not particularly interested in silver.

Upon further investigation, I have concluded that silver is massively undervalued right now, through sheer manipulation.

Originally, I only bought gold, and I used to  by  Saint-Gaudens, and other collectibles, combined with Eagles, but have since changed my strategy, and sold all of those  collectibles, and exchange them for Silver Eagles.

I tried leveraging silver futures for a while, but that was a disaster. Now I only stack.

I tend to keep a 50/50 split, because there are still many unknowns. I am absolutely certain that the fundamentals for an explosion in price have never been better for either gold or silver, and for entirely different reasons.

Obviously with all the recent stories about nations trying to claim their gold, and the common belief that it is all stolen, makes for a fundamentally bullish case for gold. As for silver, decades of downward manipulation, combined with ever expanding demand, while ore grades are being degenerated, makes the current supply and demand fundamentals extraordinarily bullish for silver.

Both silver and gold were at one time monetary metals, and it is only theoretical that they will be again, but even if that is not true, just the industrial demand for silver will soon outstrip the supply.

As far as an investment, I really only see the possibility of a dollar or two to the downside, while the potential upside is in the hundreds of dollars per ounce. Silver is a very good  bet right now.

Now for the euro:

you made a couple of statements in your post that I do not agree with.

The first one “what individual nations promise has nothing to do with the currency."

sex that is only true until the printing begins. Many of the southern European nations are socialist in nature, have enormous expenses built into their government structure, in that they have more public employees to support then there private sector could ever possibly maintain. As a result, these governments are now in a constant mode of borrowing, just to keep up with their expenses.  this borrowed money is not being granted by people who are working for a living, it is simply being printed out of thin air. This means that all of the existing euros are quickly losing their value. Your next statement although I am sure it is a government issue statement, stating that they are trying to maintain a 2% inflation rate, is pure bogus.

That is the same number that is used in the United States to describe our current inflation, and the actual number is north of 10%, and the government numbers are just fantasy.

Both the euro and the dollar as a “store of value” has been hopelessly corrupted. They only appear to be maintaining any value because they are only compared to each other and a few other Fiat currencies that are all being the valued simultaneously. At the same time,  both gold and silver which have traditionally been the “canary in the coal mine” have been ruthlessly smacked down on nearly a daily basis, to hide the fact that all of the Fiat currencies are in a state of collapse.

This cannot last indefinitely, what is being played out right now can only be described as “the end game”.

It is my contention that all Western currencies will collapse, through the irresponsible spending of their respective governments, and a burden of debt that can never possibly be repaid.

With governments  now routinely buying their own bonds, the bond markets have been irreversibly corrupted.

The fraud and the  Illegality is now epic and global. There is only one possible outcome,

this will not end well.

All paper assets will collapse in value, only hard assets will survive.

Gold and silver are not the only hard assets, but right now, they are the most affordable, and the easiest to obtain.

I tend to put as much extra cash into them as possible, leaving only enough Fiat to pay my bills.

Gold and silver may not rise all that dramatically in the near future,

but paper  currency will most definitely lose most if not all of its value.

I'm not sure if I've answered any of your questions,

but I'm done rambling for now. 

Puck T. Smith's picture

@Quisp: William Casey, the

@Quisp: William Casey, the Director of the CIA from 1981 to 1987 is supposed to have said it.  I have never found a reliable source for that quote.

Here is the discussion on the topic from the "Talk" page on William Casey at Wikipedia:

Disinformation Program Quote

"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the US public believes is false." William J. Casey, 1981

I've seen this quote all over the place. Can anyone find its source? That is a pretty damning statement if he really made it. 72.224.189.211 (talk) 14:08, 5 March 2012 (UTC)

I read that this was stated by Casey at the first staff meeting in 1975. I don't know the source. __meco (talk) 11:56, 19 June 2012 (UTC)
 
I just encountered this quote, but it stated that it was from the first staff meeting in 1981. Seems suspicious. If it's legit, that is indeed damning. TEApollonius(talk) 01:07, 23 August 2012 (UTC)
 
came across this quote as well. Found a forum post [1] that cites the supposed source as "Mae Brussels" ... an old (Kennedy era) journalist who got in to "conspiracy" starting with JFK and ended up with her own TV show(?). Judging by her writing on the Kennedy assasination [2], I would personally assume the quote was legit, assuming one can prove she is the one that "sourced" it. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 174.109.118.171 (talk) 19:18, 24 October 2012 (UTC)
Frankenstein Government's picture

I Am In Awe @ the Level of Illegal Conduct Occurring Everywhere

I've been following the German gold re-patriation story since it broke and I read it here first-

I can't believe that our government can routinely break the law- in this case, theft by conversion, and nobody ever addresses it. It is routinely ignored.

We are truly a banana republic. This is how the government, or the fed, break the law- and they can only get away with it as Attorney Generals' everywhere put their head in the sand- fearing re-election, embarrassment, and political retribution. What a corrupt and sad country we are becoming. http://thecivillibertarian.blogspot.com/2013/01/theft-by-conversion-how-usa-routinely.html

dziprick's picture

Puck

the probability of flipping 12 heads in a row are 1 in 2^12.  But IF you have already by chance flipped 11 heads in a row, the odds of flipping 12 are 50:50.

I am a prof. mech. engineer, physics, chem, and calculus prof.  Mr. Fix, you sound like an interesting guy but not very good in physics.  The broom handle thing is just conservation of angular momentum.  First year physics.  

Tesla did do some interesting things and wanted to tap the energy in the ionosphere.  Not 'creating' energy, just transffering energy already in existence.

Bugzy's picture

Oh Dog poo!

30 years of maybe, gone in 60 seconds.

See first vid about my previous description of lift.

Now see the second, devastating conclusion to my thought experiment!

I guess there is a lot more stuff on the web that when I first tried to find this. Oh well!

Keep Stacking!

Bugzy.

Dr. Fix's picture

@ Bugzy RE, "What the heck did you invent"

The laws of physics gets somewhat flexible once you make the assumption that we are “surrounded by infinite energy”.

Your statement about Tesla holds true to me as well. The the true genius of the Tesla coil is that if you simply run it backwards, with the right capacitance to differentiate the different frequencies, you can pull amazing amounts of electricity right out of thin air.

Another approach, is to use voltages in the tens of thousands to power electromagnetic fields,

and what seems to take many amps at more traditional voltages, can now be done with mere milliamps, with an astounding increase of efficiency and power. My experiments prove this out.

And yes, it is starting to get dangerous, but now I tend to take a couple of steps back when I turn it on.

When I was very young, I used to work on television sets, and would know enough to steer clear of the flyback transformer, those  Voltages can kill you. I treat my experiments with the same respect. 

By stepping down the voltages out of thin air, you are starting out with literally millions of volts, at all different  Wave lengths.

Building capacitors that can handle this is an art, which I am still perfecting.

The transformers are easy, I have built many, that work well.

Whenever possible, I just repurpose a lot of stuff from other people's garbage.

It's only a suicide machine if other people try to use it.wink

Bugzy's picture

@dziprick

Twas me with the broom thing. My bad physics.

Bugzy

Dr. Fix's picture

Bugzy.

I love the videos, and I am surprised that they never tried to give the double gyroscopes a really good spin near the end of the second video. There was no way to determine whether they were getting heavier or lighter from that experiment.

If the tripod that they were balanced on were sitting on a scale, the results may have been very interesting.

Puck T. Smith's picture

@Bollocks: David Gilmour and

@Bollocks: David Gilmour and Chrissie Hynde.  I'd never seen this. Thank you.  They are two my favorites.  The rest? Meh.

delacroix's picture

mr. fix

look up karpen's pile

Chris P. Bacon's picture

Practical application of,,,,

...conservation of angular momentum. (mute the terrible music)

If your wheels aren't on the ground you can't accelerate forward, so this "whip" technique is used to keep the bike low over jumps, aka 'scrubbing' over the jump. Or it can be done very exaggerated and with altitude as a 'style' trick.

Dr. Fix's picture

@ dziprick

You said: 

" Not 'creating' energy, just transffering energy already in existence."

That is exactly how I see it also.

And you are correct, I have absolutely no formal training in physics whatsoever, but I do like to play with it. wink

imfd's picture

A couple of movies

I recently watched a couple of movies, not something i usually do but i was prompted by a very good friend whose opinions i value. The movies were "Drums along the Mohawk" and "How the West was won". They serve as a good reminder, Hollywood aside, that freedom is a costly business and those who make the investment might not be those who reap the benefits, "Never in the field of human conflict" et al. The movies made a powerful impression on me and if you have a spare moment or two, i recommend them. The desire for peace, freedom and happiness are the same, perhaps just the enemies have changed.

Puck T. Smith's picture

@dziprick: the probability of

@dziprick: the probability of flipping 12 heads in a row are 1 in 2^12.  But IF you have already by chance flipped 11 heads in a row, the odds of flipping 12 are 50:50.

I think I get that.  For few years I worked in statistical process control.  I didn't get much theoretical training, mostly it was just application of established practices, but I think you are supporting my contention that regardless of the preceding flips, any given flip is always 50/50.  Am I correct in that?

Bugzy's picture

Karpens pile

I do not know why they did not just link many up in series to get a higher voltage and then parallel these up to increase amps and run a motor and say; do some sort of work.

That would have been impressive! A motor running for 60 years - doing work via some ambient liquid.

The fact that such a demonstration does not exist suggests that it does not work.

B

Puck T. Smith's picture

@Chicagau: Shenandoah is

@Chicagau: Shenandoah is another great one.

dziprick's picture

yes

The coin has no memory.  Every flip has a 50:50 chance.  But to flip two heads in a row is 1 in 4.  as there are four possible outcomes,  tail tail, tail head, head tail, and head head.  If you flip three times there are 8 possible out comes with only one being head head head.  two outcomes for each flip, but 2x2x2 for the three flips is 8.  The probability of each flip is 50:50 heads.  

But once you flipped 3 heads, the probabilty for the fourth is 50:50 heads.  But there was only a 1 in 8 chance that you already flipped 3 heads in a row.  To flip 4 heads in a row is 1 in 16.  Once you 'got lucky' and already flipped 3 heads, the probability is now 50:50 of getting the fourth head.

This is called the gamblers fallicty

dziprick's picture

yes

double post.  Typing in the dark so sorry for typos

Dr. Fix's picture

Karpens pile

It looks to me to be a battery, with one gold electrode, one platinum electrode, submerged in sulfuric acid.

Looks like it's time for me to invest in a platinum coin!

 I see the biggest problem with scaling this battery up to do a lot of work, is that the  cost of the electrodes in the battery, quickly becomes obscene.

But I am already trashing a couple of my silver eagles making  colloidal silver,

Why not get a 1 ounce platinum round from Kitco, and drown it and one of my gold Eagles in sulfuric acid and give it a try? wink

Silverman's picture

(No subject)

old tradesman's picture

anti gravity

http://rense.com/general39/coral.htm

He never gave up his secrets.  

ivars's picture

GSR went into a rounding mode

GSR went into a rounding mode yesterday, but still down on a day that was expected instead to be a down day for silver.

So far so good, but I see more sideways move now than continuation down in next few days, may retest 54 from below:

fertzeltwist's picture

Boring

Kinda sucks that we are not allowed to talk about anything but metals on Main Street anymore!- boring, very boring. Metals shiny- yes. Metals stackable?, yes. Metals repressed?, without a doubt, but why is this so?  The answer is blowing in the wind, soul kitten! Time is now to be strong, grow a shlong, and carry on, donkey kong! The reason metals are repressed is cause WE are repressed. Until this is addressed, you will all remain victims.

old tradesman's picture

But my post is about metal

when he moved the castle,  he had to hire a truck and driver,  in which the truck driver caught a glimpse  of the anti gravity machine.  He was asked after the old mans death to come and show how things were put together.   He said that the gold parts were missing.   See gold, copper.=metals

Ok sorry Im pushing it there.   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coral_Castle 

fertzeltwist's picture

What trade ?

Old tradesman?

RockerBoxer's picture

CHF

Let's see what happens...

RockerBoxer

fertzeltwist's picture

Default setting-

Default...old.//-tradesman....unplanned response//trip// default setting....ignore- auto reset initiate.(oo7)

Pegasus's picture

German interest in Barbaric Relic - What could be so facinating?

NY Times Story: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/17/business/global/german-central-bank-to-repatriate-gold-reserves.html?emc=tnt&tntemail1=y

Sure seems like a lot of fuss over a barbaric relic. And oh yeah, what is that instrument on the table. Some kind of mass spectrometer? Nah, why would they want to know the mass of such a silly monetary relic of the past? Psssst - hey buddy, got tungsten? Just kidding! Not!

rtabit's picture

@Puck T. Smith and @dziprick

"It's kind of like flipping coins and getting 12 straight "heads" -- the odds of a "tail" coming up rise with each "head"."
 
This is true, he did not state the odds of the next individual coin flip rise, but the odds of a "tail" in the future (coming up).  Law of Large Numbers.
 
My haven't written a proof since college proof (aka not really a proof):
Using geometric distribution...
If p = number of coin flips required for the first "tail"
Then the probability of getting a "tail" on nth flip, previously having n-1 'heads' is: (p^1)*((1-p)^(n-1))
 
Pegasus's picture

Golden opportunity for thieves? Germany to bring home $36 Billio

BERLIN - In what sounds like the setup for a stylish Hollywood heist movie, Germany is transferring nearly 700 tons of gold bars worth $36 billion from Paris and New York to its vaults in Frankfurt.

The move is part of an effort by Germany's central bank to bring much of its gold home after keeping big reserves outside the country for safekeeping during the Cold War.

Shipping such a large amount of valuable cargo between countries could be a serious security headache. A gold robbery — the subject of such movies as "Die Hard 3" and "The Italian Job" — would be embarrassing and expensive for Germany.

The high-stakes, high-security plan is to move the precious metal — 374 tons kept in vaults in Paris and 300 tons stored at the New York Federal Reserve Bank — to the Bundesbank in Germany's financial centre over the next eight years.

(AP Photo/dpa/ Frank Rumpenhorst)

Article Link: http://www.timescolonist.com/business/golden-opportunity-for-thieves-germany-to-bring-home-36-billion-in-gold-stored-in-us-france-1.48722

Includes speculation on how the gold is to be transported.

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